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Ouch, NRP Just Fell 17%

My NRP coal partnership got blasted to the tune of 17% after announcing the coal market continued to weaken in 2013, against their expectation. In response to the weak sales of power production and metallurgical coal, NRP’s board announced a 36% reduction in distributions.

This hurts, as I guessed that $20 would average the low mark in the name. Clearly, I was wrong.

I am not selling NRP, though (not yet, at least). My primary reason for buying into NRP was more predicated on coal being a very inexpensive sector to get exposure to and the medium term unlikelihood that the US or global economies will be able to pivot away from coal quickly.

I’ll ride this out for a little bit and see where it goes. There’s been long speculation that NRP may have to cut its distribution, because their debt level is high and their board has ambitious goals to diversify their royalty stream into a variety of commodities, such as raw materials for glass or gas and oil.

The board has reaffirmed they don’t think the partnership is at risk of violating bond covenants, and I think the five year forecast distribution is more likely to contain upside surprises.

NRP is sinking me ~1.5%, which is actually being generously offset by gains elsewhere. NRP was a smaller position than, say, CCJ or BAS. For the day, I am down just ~.5% so far. But we’ll see if NRP doesn’t bleed out hard into the close

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First Of The Year Portfolio Drawdown

It’s nothing too severe – less than 1% – but I’m getting wacked to start off 2014 nonetheless.

The selloff in my account is led by HCLP, as mediocre fund managers caught padding their positions, trying to save their unspectacular careers, let go the Potemkin equity stakes.

Silver caught a nice bounce into the first of the year, but we have been here before, have we not? I’m mentally prepared for silver to go to $0.00…being shelled out for free at every street corner. Why not? It has no utility, after all…excluding all its utility.

My positions are AEC, MAA, NRP, HCLP, BAS, CCJ, RMCF, UEC (small), BALT, physical silver, and some TSLA puts (a third of which are about to expire worthless on the 18th of this month).

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Monday Review

AEC is the latest stock I own to go bananas on nothing. It’s up over 10%, shrugging off the indices.

BAS is the only notable correction I’m experiencing. NRP and silver are both down a bit, but nothing really leading a charge lower.

TSLA meanwhile is rolling over hard, as a multitude of technicians knife one another in an attempt to call the next bounce point. If I had to put my money on one of them, it would be our own ChessNWine.

If TSLA can dip below $100, there is a strong likelihood that I will sell my $100 puts (reserving final judgment for such time) and use the gains to zero out the cost of my other puts (expiring between 2014 and 2015 with strikes around $35-45). That would give me essentially free options to make huge gains out of nothing.

Like a modern day Rumpelstiltskin, I adore spinning gold out of straw more than almost anything else – unless it’s the blood of your firstborn.

For the moment, the TSLA position is still a money loser. But at just 3-4% of my account, how can you pretend that I care?

In summary, the Tesla fanatics are getting quiet, and many a junior in college is starting to sweat.

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Pared Down BAS

I had purchased additional shares of BAS in late July through early August, between $11.55 and $12.40. Those shares were up 30-40%, so I sold off half of them. The remainder is added to my permanent position.

I love the name, but having followed it for quite some time, it’s normal deviations are in the 20-30% range. I’m happy to see it breaking out to new highs, as that jives well with my own expectations. While buying the initial stake in BAS, I called for a price target of $18 at the time, and feel this company is well positioned to experience above average growth for the next 5-10 years.

However, back to the wild price swings, I don’t trust this stock at all. So taking a bit of money off the table makes sense. If I can’t buy back in lower, I still make a fat spread on a major position. But in all likelihood, the stock craters back to $14, and I load up all over again.

My current positions are CCJ, BAS, HCLP, AEC, MAA, NRP, RMCF, TSLA puts, and physical silver.

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Summarizing The Day

I got smacked pretty hard today, with NRP, HCLP and BAS all taking blows. The earnings out of NRP and HCLP apparently spooked some investors, and BAS just sort of followed along.

I am not concerned about any one of these positions. The rest of the holdings were a pretty mixed bag.

I dare not address the Tesla selloff just yet, for fear I somehow jinx it. I refuse to report any of the numbers on my put position, as it is so small and just unpredictable. Suffice to say, the first batch of options expire with early 2014. The next two thirds of them expire with early 2015. I’ll mark them down as they expire worthless, or record the profits when I actually have something more concrete.

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Back In The Saddle

The trials of last week were grinding and I simply exhausted myself. While this week hasn’t set up much better, I think I can at least imagine the point where I will begin to see the light reflecting off the walls from the light coming in at the end of the tunnel.

So there’s that going for me…

I want to dig into CCJ’s numbers on here, as they were impressive and caught the intelligentsia off guard. Mind you they didn’t just beat the numbers. They beat the numbers by something so stupid, I dare not even write it down.

Speak the name Fukushima again; it won’t save your predictions.

There’s a clear trend setting up in my book; BAS, CCJ, NRP, HCLP…they all have something in common, besides the massive ramp ups in price. I like what I’m seeing here, and some of their better peers seem to be confirming it.

Yes oil is selling off hard. But oil was unduly expensive, wasn’t it? Because the price was flung up in response to those tired fears. The price falling is not a problem, it’s a blessing to companies that need to see activity pick up.

The extra hour of sleep did me well. I’m refreshed, at least for the moment. See you around.

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