iBankCoin
Stock advice in actual English.
Joined Sep 2, 2009
1,224 Blog Posts

Started A New Position In TIS

I purchased shares of TIS for $25.57, bringing my cash position down to 50%.

TIS is a smaller scale North American company that specializes in toiletry paper products. They have good financials and a reliable little operation. A nice little cash generating machine which, as of today, is available at an 8% discount to yesterday.

Not exciting or interesting at all, yet well positioned.

I’ve also got a hunch that companies like TIS will have surprise growth ahead. As I look at more or less the complete dissolution of an entire economy in South America, I can’t help but think that this kind of boring business will have some interesting opportunities over the next few years.

Venezuela is not going to stabilize without outside help. Maduro is too stupid to pull this off alone; the bus driver is going to need to allow some major imports of foreign goods at market prices to stabilize his economy. Or, more likely, whichever successor is first to be found standing over Maduro’s lifeless body will. An entire country is not going to be supplied by any one source, so I’d put good odds that manufacturers of basic products like this, all over North and South America, will stand to profit as supplies redirect southward.

Venezuela may be the worst, but hardly the only party here. There are a handful of similar styled countries in South America that have looming problems and will likely end up becoming ripe targets for North American supply.

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7 comments

  1. djmarcus

    Interesting analysis, though I’d suspect that bigger players like kimberly clark would benefit more from this trend. Thanks for providing your thoughts.

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    • Mr. Cain Thaler

      I foremost liked the company. I am not counting on that to happen.

      But if you have enough of a demand some point in the future, it will drive up prices in neighboring regions.

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  2. gorby

    Big bet .

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  3. henceforth

    I’d wait a bit on this one for the earnings estimates to come down for Q1. From what was mentioned on the conf. call it seems like the current estimate of 38 cents is too high

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    • Mr. Cain Thaler

      I’d say a one day, 8% beat down means people have already worked that out for themselves

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      • henceforth

        Right – but I’d like to see the estimates come down quite a bit, anyway.

        To a point where it will be hard for them to miss again and take another beat down next Q

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