Alright, today was a big day. I was up almost 5%. Strong moves in the oil and energy space and shorts unwinding. Leverage pressed the envelope. Almost everything I had ended higher, in a big way.
But it’s too early to celebrate. BAS is down almost 60% from the top. I sold out quite a lot of the position at the top, which is the only reason I’m still alive. HCLP is flirting with $50 again, but that’s a 30% drop from the highs (again, I was lucky as hell selling out near those). VOC is down 50% from the highs.
This isn’t enough. Big up days need follow through to repair the charts. Short sellers need to be checking their backs at every street corner. That’s the only thing that will scare the carrion birds off the backs of these stocks. And we need the price of oil to carry us along. We need Brent back above $80 and WTI needs to tag along playfully behind (but can’t get too close or the spread will be damaged).
The rest of the market is acting healthy and, despite the exact same concerns about the economy that have been there for five years now, there doesn’t seem to be a fresh wave of cascading data to fret over.
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