iBankCoin
Stock advice in actual English.
Joined Sep 2, 2009
1,224 Blog Posts

You Want QE3?

Crude oil has been gagged and bound and unceremoniously thrown off a cliff, as people start coming to terms with the fact that the Fed WILL NOT continue permitting the flow of “the sacred sauce.”

Bernanke’s magically liquid elixir is being put back on the shelf, and those of you busy whoring yourselves for a taste are going to withdrawal like a red light district on Sunday.

You underestimate the man.

It’s become a joke, in the past two years.

Finances in distress? Clam prints money.

Governments in peril? Clam prints money.

Baby seals being poached in the Arctic circle? Clam prints money.

But somewhere along the way, you should have realized that Bernanke understands the limits of money printing better than you characterized. Surely, a man who has spent his entire life studying economics and various business cycles would not be so one dimensional?

The convolution and intricacy of the system would require a more elaborate response than “push the button, get a cookie.”

I have said; Bernanke & Co. will not be unleashing the flood again, unless economic perversity runs rampant once more. I will cash in my oil and energy shorts long before that point.

If you wish to take oil to $200 a barrel, fine. But you do so at your own risk and without support of dollar destruction. And Bernanke will not save you when you collapse the recovery; not until you are long after broken and insolvent.

The only way I ultimately lose on my crude trade is if everything stays put. And if the price of crude stays put, how much can I really lose?

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8 comments

  1. winsef

    well said, Mr. Thaler

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  2. Benny Ber yank me
    Benny Ber yank me

    I print because its a tradition handed down to me

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  3. Mr. Cain Thaler

    Now crude is down more than 2%.

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  4. chivo

    Cain for prez

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  5. jimmy_two_times
    jimmy_two_times

    cain,

    as I put in your last post .. good call on the deflation requirement.

    the bearded one himself said theres inflation right now, quite different than when QE2 was put in play

    he tlaked down the commods quite nicely

    as a proxy for all of this what is your foor on crude this time round? last year it hit 65ish before they acted

    again thanks for your inight benn bang on … keep it up

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    • Mr. Cain Thaler
      Mr. Cain Thaler

      I’ve been spouting off “CRUDE TO $60” mostly because it’s catchy.

      I have no real idea where it ends.

      But I’m short some pretty volatile stuff, so I’d guess I cover between $70 – $80.

      This is sort of a guess-and-check approach.

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  6. jimmy_two_times
    jimmy_two_times

    oh yeah benny also said QE3 will not work umless it generates borrowing i.e. get the credit cycle restarted

    not sure when the appetite for credit will come back

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  7. Tik Tok Fik Fok
    Tik Tok Fik Fok

    When your real brain wakes up and it finally realizes that UN Agenda 21 is well planned and financed, and is fully intended to be carried out by international central bankers, you will then know how to trade the fundamentals of this market.

    Until then, enjoy your television-induced awareness-sucking haze.

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