On this fine day with the DJIA currently up over 500 points, let’s have a trip down memory lane to the last two weeks during a mild 10% correction. Oh, there was plenty of prose involved, but I’m busy today, so pictures will have to suffice.
And what compilation of panic would not be complete without Gartman? Does anyone outside of CNBC take this clown seriously at this point?
NO STOCK IS SAFE:
Even the Asians are in PANIC
Either this guy just lost a bundle or he is suffering from severe constipation:
Oh. The Drama.
What at panic would be complete without a look back at Occupy Wall Street?
I just told my clients to buy heavily as we are swiftly heading to Dow 30K. How can this be?
Let’s get something clear here, people. Apple ($AAPL) is not a growth stock, it is a value stock. It made that transition years ago when they started paying a dividend.
When we approach the Earnings Date, however, the mindset of most people is the opposite. It has been clear for over a month now that the iPhone X sales number for the quarter will be lower than the ridiculous “consensus” expects. Delays with the OLED screen and facepalm-recognition software were well-documented by November. Yet Advisors and other “seasoned professionals” have been wringing their hands the past two weeks and the result has been a sharp decline in price from a lofty $180 down to $165.
Screaming buy? No, wait for a sharp drop on the earnings announcement as this one metric will drive the stock lower. I plan on selling a meager chunk of my horde of shares (I have been a buyer for well over a decade) on any significant drop, with the goal of picking up the same amount of shares at a discount once the dust settles and sanity kicks in. If my scenario unfolds as I hope it will, I will then take my winnings and upgrade my Corvette to the 2019 Grand Sport Coupe in Watkins Glen Gray Metallic. I play to win.
Back in October 2016 I said this: “BUY THE DIP – while you can, under $115 Average down if further weakness tomorrow.”
A month earlier on Twitter, I had eviscerated the worst tech journalist on the planet, a certain Jennifer Booton, who had been making a career out of Apple-bashing in her blogs and articles. Booton probably had a price point of $50 at the time Warren Buffett was sinking $1 Billion into AAPL stock. We actually had a Twitter War at one point. As the stock started to climb from sub-$100 I was merciless to the point where she blocked me on Twitter. Jennifer is gone now, relegated to a corner of the Interwebs far from MarketWatch – something called SportTechie – nobody can survive the beating Bozo Booton received in 2017. Am I gloating? Goddamned right I am, and to Jen, my best wishes on your new career writing about gadgets. I’m sure you’ll do a bang-up job and thanks for a splendid, real-life example of the Peter Principle in action.
You can see where Buffett, the undisputed Master of Timing, sank one billion dollars into AAPL at the crosshairs on this chart:
Let’s see if I am right. Again.
In other news, The Unofficial SOTU Response from self-described “national socialist” (?) Bernie Sanders dissolved mid-speech and went offline for three minutes, a more perfect metaphore would be difficult to create. Perhaps Comrade Bernie hired a few DREAMers as his crack I.T. Staff.
And what puts a smile on my face the first thing in the morning like a new meme-worthy SOTU rebuttal that makes one forget all about Marco Rubio’s lunging for a bottle of spring water. BEHOLD Drooling Joe Kennedy. This ain’t your granddaddy’s Kennedy Klan.
Our Millenial Youth weren’t getting Tesla buzz cuts on race day at Lime Rock Park. BMW Coolness Factor. Real, no vapor.
The carnival barker who proclaimed the death of the automobile industry is about to get brushed aside by those he so brashly dismissed back when Tesla was really the only game in town besides the spectacular fail of the 1st-gen Nissan Leaf.
Oh it will be a Day Trader’s Delight for a little while longer. But it is the rube stuck on the Model 3 waiting list who was expecting his new toy in February who will be the first to bail as BMW and Daimler Benz (and Honda, and GM, and more!) are rolling out some serious and cooler-than-Tesla hardware at the car shows this winter.
BMW alone is on fire. Daimler has announced $Billions are being invested in EV and Battery Plants in the southern US.
Tesla has lost the mantle of Most Cool EV’s that it had as it’s Ace in the hole for years. Reality in the form of solvent, behemoth multinational corporations with unlimited production capabilities has aarrived.
Honda also unveiled a very hot item, a luxury vehicle aimed straight at the Tesla Model S clientele.
Seems like everyone is getting into the act. There is a lot of money to be made over the next two decades and beyond. That money will not be made in the form of the horrendous Tesla Model X. Nobody is going to shave their head in honor of that beast.
…and speaking of money, or lack thereof…UNSUSTAINABLE:
$TSLA – on track to lose in one quarter what Solyndra lost in it’s lifetime. Perhaps Elon Musk can go to D.C., hat in hand, and ask The Donald for a small cash infusion. I am sure the President won’t mind, especially after Musk single-handedly destroyed Trump’s technology commission when he noisily left in a huff to protest Trump’s climate policy.
After all, Trump is not known to hold a grudge or to bring up past issues when discussing a Deal.
Which brings us to the Moral of today’s story: Don’t bite the hand that feeds you. Good luck, Mr. Musk. You do make a fine rocket ship. Although now that President Trump has indicated some robust increases in the NASA budget, something tells me you may have lost Most Favored Status amongst potential NASA partners. Cheers, mate!
So you’re a member of Buzzfeed Staff which gives you Carte Blanche to make fun of Whitey because race-baiting is so cool in 2017.
It does not, however, prevent the Internet from coming back and biting you in that big ol’ ass. BEHOLD one of the finest moments of 2017, barely squeaking in under the gun.
37 Things Black People Need To Stop Ruining In 2018
First of all, America.
Posted on December 30, 2017, 22:15 GMT
…and Community Contributor Samir Al-Hajeed entered Internet Lore and started grabbing all the clicks
“Samir Al-Hajeed is a BuzzFeed user and their posts have not been vetted or endorsed by BuzzFeed’s editorial staff. BuzzFeed Community is a place where anyone can post awesome lists and creations.”
Mr. Al-Hajeed’s post remained up for most of the day and was only noticed by Buzzfeed after it had gone viral. (No surprise as it is rumored that Buzzfeed may soon be going the way of other failed leftist websites, a 2017 trend). But by that time it had been archived by alert Netizens, preserved in all it’s glory for the world to enjoy, forever.
The above article was picked up by Zerohedge over the weekend. It is only a metter of time before the MSM stops fawning over Musk and turns on him like a pack of jackals.
The Ponzi Scheme is clear: conjure up and repeat utterly fantastical “visions” of the future of electric vehicles in a desperate attempt to draw in more rubes who will gleefully hand you cash money to keep your house of cards from turning to dust.
Yep, just unveil a truck that does not exist. Never mind trivia like where it would be built, how it would be financed or even how it would carry normal payloads after being saddled with the weight of multiple enormous battery packs. Then just arbitrarily toss out a number for alleged range on said non-existent vehicle. I have seen that number swell from 200 miles to 500 miles just in the past week. And of course it will be able to accept a full recharge in as little as 30 minutes from a non-existent “Megacharger”. Said charger is rumored to be powered by the sun!
And if that doesn’t generate enough buzz to bring in more desperately needed capital, just tell them the other non-existent fucking thing can fly:
It’s a bird! It’s a plane! It’s a FLYING TESLA!
“There is a sucker born every minute”, said P.T. Barnum. Now THAT man was a visionary.
The collapse of this monstrosity is going to make Solyndra look tame. I understand Disney ($DIS) has placed the first order for ten trucks. As soon as I publish this blog entry I am logging into eTrade and selling my $DIS shares. I refuse to invest in companies run by fools.
And what better way to ensure that the government will continue to shovel cash into your gaping maw than to diss Donald Trump by publically resigning from his Technology Council? I see this as Trump’s reaction the next time Tesla comes begging, hat in hand:
“And then has asked for another $10 billion to cover 2nd-Q interest!”
I understand Musk’s next Big Thing is to colonize the planet Mars. I recommend we send Musk, Gov. Jerry “Moonbeam” Brown and the entire board of Walt Disney Corp as the first inhabitants. There should be plenty of solar energy available to power Mars Station Musk, thereby eliminating the need for a capital infusion. Godspeed, lads.
“Anyplace you can think of, you could be” -Paul Kantner, 1970
Elon Musk, the Palo Alto carnival barker (and poster-boy of the “climate change” hysteria being foisted upon us by Californistan Illuminati), tweeted that his truck, which does not exist, is a “beast”. He also said that it is “worth seeing this beast in person.
“Seriously next level” sounds like something you might here in casual conversation at your local internet coffee bar, muttered by juveniles:
Tesla Semi truck unveil set for September. Team has done an amazing job. Seriously next level.
Musk had originally said the company would reveal a prototype of the vehicle in September. He then pushed the reveal date back to October 26. And on Friday he delayed the reveal date yet again.
The electric-car maker is now expected to reveal the electric big-rig on November 16, Musk said in a tweet on Friday.
Musk has blamed the delay on Puerto Rico, claiming Tesla is working heroically on producing batteries for the crippled island. As a Silicon Valley Eco-hero, you have to keep your climate change fans happy as well as your investors, after all.
It will be interesting to hear him explain why truckers would want a rig that can only travel 300 miles before it has to be recharged when the average miles traveled by most semis is somewhere around 600 miles a day.
Charging stations would be a challenge as this is not as simple as throwing a few superchargers next to the gas pumps. We are talking about taking up a lot of real estate in the truck stops and that might not make the other drivers very happy.
Driverless rigs are also bandied about in this conversation, which I am sure will thrill the Teamsters Union. I have even heard talk of one human-driven truck electronically towing a fleet af driverless vehicles behind him. Freight trains on the highway. Imagine attempting to change lanes with a driverless convoy in the middle lane. What could go wrong? There is so much basic reality that never seems to make it into the conversation. Ford Motor claims they will have driverless vehicles on the road in three years from now.
“In the event of a pending accident, will the software in a driverless vehicle protect the occupants or pedestrians?”
Back in June, the LA Times posted an article referencing the above tweet from Tesla CEO and carnival barker Elon Musk. Everything Musk does is taken verbatim, accepted as truth. P.T. Barnum wished he had been so lucky.
CNBC dutifully published more fake news, this time revolving around the ‘Boring Company’, an empty shell masquerading as something real:
Elon Musk just posted a bunch of pictures of his tunnel and ‘Boring’ equipment Elon Musk said his Boring Co. has begun digging.
Musk posted several photos of the equipment on Twitter.
The effort is aimed at building tunnels under Los Angeles.
Musk said it, therefore it is true, according to CNBC:
Elon Musk has begun digging under Los Angeles.
The entrepreneur posted Friday several pictures of equipment meant for digging tunnels beneath Los Angeles.
The project is one of Musk’s latest ventures, which was inspired by a desire to alleviate “out of control” traffic in Los Angeles
This is all pure horseshit, of course. Elon Musk and his magical boring machine have not begun digging anywhere. The pics and video in the articles are “renderings”. One truly has to be on the far side of the moon to think companies can just start digging tunnels underneath existing infrastructure purely on the conjecture and fantasy of a corporate CEO who is annoyed at the time he wastes commuting from LAX to San Francisco.
Without government subsidies, Tesla and affiliates would not have built one single car, space rocket, or “boring machine”. None. Zero. Zilch. Nada. And none built without Supreeme Leader Musk shilling at fancy parties,
…or less fancy outings for adoring Millenials and blue jean -wearing middle aged hipsters.
Musk is cool, man. And he is a hero because you know the electric car is so environmentally correct despite the enormous amount of industrial waste involved in producing massive batteries that sooner or later will have to be discarded somewhere, as well as the inconvenient fact that electricity generated from coal and fossil fuels are what powers the EV market.
There has not been a successful launch of an American car company in almost a century, and even the successful ones burned out after a few years.
The list of failures is a mile long, with many a storied name alongside some forgettable ones: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_defunct_automobile_manufacturers_of_the_United_States
There is no reason why Tesla should not have followed Solyndra as an example of government waste in the name of junk science. No reason but a huckster with the odd name of ‘Elon Musk’.
Now I think the Tesla Model X is a cool car, don’t get me wrong. I still remember the day I first saw not one, but two of them cruising along the Merritt Parkway in tony Fairfield County, CT. At first I thought they were Jaguars until I noticed the odd logo on the deck lid.
But the economics of building an expensive, limited production electric vehicle are far different from mass-producing tens of thousands of cheap vehicles on an assembly line, especially when you have no experience doing it.
Tesla is in the process of finding that out as we speak, as barely a trickle of the new Model 3 have been produced and Musk is on record claiming they would be cranking them out at an astounding rate of 30,000/month by December. Matters that would be trivial to an established car company, such as welding steel frames, are proving to be problematic. Musk brushed aside criticism as is his style, but the stock market did not, punishing the stock from it’s airy highs in 2017 down below $300/share (still an absurd price for a massively money-losing operation).
And the image of Elon Musk, Cool Guy took a hit in October when, due to the failure of the Model 3 assembly and less than anticipated sales of the Model X and the SUV, the company fired hundreds of workers. Musk tweeting that night about hosting a small cookout on the roof of the factory the night of the firings did not do much for his image. I am not sure about hanging with goofy John Oliver, either. No, I cannot imagine GM’s Bob Lutz in this picture, either.
And stories have been popping up about the fit and finish on the flagship Model X, with claims of interior panels that do not fit, along with rattles and squeaks that would doom the reputation of any mainstream car company. Let us not forget what happened to the Italians and the French in the U.S. market back in the 1970’s and 1980’s. I still have fond memory of driving my 1984 Alfa Romeo while various interior bits woukd literally fall into my lap along the way. That failure of the head gasket barely 300 miles past the 36000-mile warranty and the clutch failure at 45000 miles are also burned into my brain. I wish all the best to Alfa and FIAT as they attempt to reenter the US. The new Alfas in particular seem well-built with stunning specs but then again, FIAT is now one of the largest if not the largest carmaker on the planet.
But it is not manufacturing woes that will doom Tesla Motors. It is competition, something Tesla has been immune up to this point in time due to it’s early entry and those billions of dollars in government largesse.
Daimler-Benz just announced they will be building factories in the US to produce EV’s and the batteries to power them. Billions of dollars have been earmarked. BMW is already building both the utilitarian i3 and the stunning i8 models. The Mercedes concept is much cooler than a Tesla. The Coolness Factor is huge and unquantifiable.
But it is General Motors that has fired the first salvo in the takedown of Tesla Motors. The Bolt EV will be a huge success. Nissan has also redesigned the boring Leaf EV, making it quite similar to the Chevy in design and less of a space-nerd rendering of what an EV is expected to look like.
You also of course have hybrids, which are gaining in popularity and are no longer defined by the wimpy Toyota Prius but rather by the hairy-chested Porsche 918 and the gorgeous and potent Acura NSX.
Then you have European countries mandating 100% electric vehicle usage by 2030 and other assorted nonsense. The internal combustion engine is not going to simply disappear. I love my 2017 Corvette Grand Sport and it’s 460hp V8 that happens to get 27mpg on the highway in Eco Mode with cylinder deactivation. It will never be replaced with an EV. No. Fucking. Way.
Peter Tertzakian, an energy economist for ARC Energy Institute, argued in recent commentary that even with bans put in place by every country in the world and deep penetration of EVs beyond 2030, the number of ICE vehicles in 2050 will be only slightly lower than today’s number.
I made a lot of money trading crude futures on Thursday. It is something I rarely do and do not recommend it to any sane individual.
A gem for all you energy commodity traders, from an astute long-time trader I greatly respect:
“Besides the 6/21 uptrend channel bottom line that we are on @ or near 49 I am looking at the recent selling activity before the last 3 hurricanes to make US landfall. the heavy selling occurs the day before the storm hits with very strong buying the following days. Harvey US landfall Aug 25, selling on Aug 24 from 48.40 to 47 and a few days after takes it to 45.50 then hard spike up to 49.40.
Sept 8th hard selling from 49.10 to 47.22 a day before Irma Sept 10th then a big spike for new high 50.50.
Sept 18th selling from 50.85 to 49.70 (Maria) Sept 20th then hard spike to 52.80. I think the retrace is done, the production shutdown with refineries in harms way and the increased gas usage for any evacuations is going to spike this to 53.53.”
This is better research than anything you will ever get from a chartist/technical trader. So after buying and selling five contracts like a Contrarian Boss, to great reward on Thursday, today I bought again near the hurricane-hysteria LOD. Five futures contracts with an average cost of 49.32. Stop loss be damned, I am willing to hold it until the hysteria dies on the vine. Hurricane Harvey was an anomaly. This one incoming is Cat 1, at best. In fact, this time it will be offshore production that suffers, not the refineries. That sounds positively bullish.
We’ll see how this plays out by Wednesday. Until then, stay safe and warm, dear friends on the Gulf Coast. I’ll be up on the positively BALMY Connecticut Gold Coast, the wife is away for the weekend and I will be cranking up YouTube through one of the Rokus and annoying my neighbors with very loud music through open windows. No open screens, the fucking Stink Bugs are clamoring to come inside for the winter (another positively horrid accidental import from the hellish insect world of Asia).
Ladies and Gents, wait for the amazing Les Paul of the Master, Martin Barre, setting the tone for my weekend…
Let’s skip the new phones for a second and delve into the past:
I have been beating the same drum for almost fifteen years. And listening to the same horseshit for the same amount of time. There were no iPods or iPhones in 1999, but Jobs was already well on his way in forging the behemoth we see today. In 1998 we had the new iMacs, which were far and away the epitome of Nerd Chic:
I always liked their products, in fact my first Apple computer was the Apple IIe Professional, which garnered the Professional label due to it’s TWO floppy disks – one for the OS and one for data. No longer would the user be burdened with the tedium of popping out the OS to load data. All that and MASSIVE memory…I forget exactly how much. It was an awesome upgrade to my Radio Shack/Tandy PC.
But I did not buy another Apple computer until the late 90’s when I bought a new iMac. It was translucent, it was colorful, it looked like a giant egg. It had a handle on top. It had a built-in CD-ROM reader. And horrors…it did not have a floppy disk. I still remember the wailing and the moaning…how will we survive without a floppy? But what it did have was Intel’s new USB interface, so if you still wanted a floppy drive, have at it, along with a whole slew of external devices that could also connect to the innocuous little USB slot.
Next came the G3:
and then the stunning G4 and the OSX operating system:
OSX was brilliant. I was running both a programming department and a graphic arts department at the time though my background was programming/I.T. There was the usual disconnect with the graphic artists and the nuts-and-bolts PC guys, where the former swore by the Macs while the programmers and analysts stayed in their IBM/MicrosoftSun Microsystems bubble.
I credit those graphic artists with my love for all things Apple. They refused to work on anything else as nothing could touch the Mac’s color rendering. And the new operating system GUI created by Jobs and Co reminded me of the powerful Sun Micro UNIX workstations that we used to power things like our super-fast, enormous Xerox “laser printers” like the 9700 Series. OSX was a true multitasking OS, it ran on the Apple/IBM PowerPC platform (far superior to the Intel chips that would forever be beholden to the 8080 Windows-centric OS) – and the industrial design of the G4 was stunning.the OS was loosely based on a UNIX/LINUX kernel and directly attributable to the neXt platform that was bought by Jobs a few years earlier.
In other words, groundbreaking and very cool stuff, mate.
So I dumped my full-service broker and started doing my own investing and started buying Apple stock. Every month for years. And through it all there was a constant…a shrill chorus of naysayers proclaiming the death of the company. When the first iPhone came out around 2007, it was proclaimed a worthless toy – by fucktards.
After all, what could possibly replace Muh Blackberry? A silly phone with a GUI? Haha. Nobody, and I mean NOBODY, could grasp the concept that this little device was a powerfull hand-held computer. “You are going to buy a phone to take pictures?”
The Shrill Chorus continues to this very day. A year ago I wrote this:
BUY THE DIP – while you can, under $115 Average down if further weakness tomorrow. See me in March for further discussion. The Tenth Anniversary iPhone Edition due in 2017 is rumored to be a game-changer. Everything this fine American company does is planned years in advance. Target $130 June 2017.
We are now at $160 and $200 is right around the corner. I also said this:
Beats consensus. IPhone7 above expectations. Ridiculous +24% beat on services, Second-Gen watch and iPhone7 will do well this Christmas, (not enough data to contribute to 4th-Q numbers), 10th-Anniversary iPhone in-queue, buybacks continue,
Right before that post, the noise was that the iPhone7 was nothing more than a revamped iPhone6. Read the comments over the last two weeks and you will see the same theme regarding the iPhone8. They just don’t get it. There is a reason Jobs hand-picked Tim Cook as his successor. Cook may not have the charisma of his mentor (far from it) but he has been nothing short of brilliant in his execution of the core mission of the company.
“The iPhoneX, as the latest iteration is called, will be a runaway success. It is truly a game-changer. “But it is $1000!”, you bleat. You bonehead. Who buys an iPhone when you can lease one with carrier subsidies at $45-$55 a month?
Wired Magazine states:
THE NEW IPHONE X packs more new stuff into any device since the original iPhone. It’s the most complete redesign of the product ever and even offers a glimpse at what the iPhone might become when the world no longer wants smartphones.
Remember that quote. We will revisit it sometime in the not too distant future. You can get into the nuts and bolts in Wired’s article here.
YOU UNLOCK THE PHONE, EVEN PAY VIA APPLE PAY, WITH YOUR FACE.
Augmented Reality (AR) and Artificial Intelligence (AI). The Billions being spent now and in years to come, funded by the Ever-Growing Cash Horde, on Future Tech is starting to show results. The Home Button is gone, sacrificed to the gods of the full-screen interface…you 3-D map your face to enable unlocking your phone. Slick.
The 3rd-Gen Watch is also imminent. The Apple Watch is now the best-selling watch in the world. Watch Gen-3 will ramp those numbers way up. I look forward to other wearables in the near future. Apple Shirt, anyone? I look forward to Augmented Reality displays hovering in space in front of me, fully controlled by my voice, eye movements, and gestures. This will all be brought to you by the fine folks from Cupertino, California. They might not be the first with the products, but they will be first with the ones you want.
And the growth will continue to be powered by Services. Value-added, baby. The ultimate upsell.
I’m getting tired of pimping $AAPL. Ignore at your peril. Rant to be continued, no doubt. We’ll revisit at $200/share. And that dividend! You are thick, man.
Imagine owning your own airline but deciding to stay in the path of the strongest CAT5 ever recorded, because you are glamorous and a Risk-Taker. On a small island in the Atlantic Ocean.
Now imagine encouraging your “team” to ride it out with you. In your wine cellar – and make sure you Tweet-out to all the poor schlubs on the island that their mud huts and grass shacks are probably not a good place to be…best to hightail it to the local shelter (if no wine cellar available) which I am sure will be there after the 200mph winds have subsided.
It is important when working for über-wealthy dipshits like this that you show you are a Team Player by putting your life at risk.
Imagine putting out statements on social media where your assholery is on display for all the world to see.
Imagine railing about “Climate Change” as fhe culprit and issuing dire warnings about said climate change whilst downing a few cases of vntage Champagne with your slavish toadies.
Ah, but the lawn furniture is secure. Climate Change can not and will not fhreaten the lawn furniture when you are on the right side of the climate-change debate.
Behold the narcissistic ravings of a lunatic, a stupidly-wealthy clown who seems to thrive on danger and risk-taking and is not afraid to take others along for the ride because, well, they want to keep their jobs and the best way is to show Doctor Yes that you are a Team Player is to risk your own life alongside the Good Doctor. One can clearly surmise that this is the need to build and maintain Image because we all know how important it is that the Little People know how awesome it is to be you:
I am also concerned for the wonderful wildlife of the BVI, not least on Necker and Moskito, where many flamingos, lemurs, scarlet ibis and other stunning species live. Hopefully all people and animals can keep out of harm’s way in the coming days.
I doubt there are any flamingoes, scarlet ibis and lemurs left on Richard’s Fantasy Island, unless they were invited into the wine cellar.
The leftards love to bash Trump’s billionaire narcissism while lauding the same behavior in another billionaire as long as said billionaire says all the right things about Climate Change.
The Twitterati predictably lost no time in eviscerating Branson after his tweetstorm, though I doubt people like Branson even bother to read the responses from the little people. The moving hand, having writ, moves on.