iBankCoin
I've been doing this a long time.
Joined Oct 7, 2015
93 Blog Posts

Humble Pie, a bit of Irish Luck, and notes from the Dark Side

Remember the final paragraph of my May 30 post, people:

“I reckon I’ll be holding through 2019-2020. And remember, a spike in crude prices is often just a geopolitical event away. As always, this is not advice, this is an opinion. You lose your shirt betting on volatile crude oil, don’t come crying to me, rube”.

‘Do you see a tall, dark formation of shale oil?’

Playing the oil sector has a vibe not unlike your average mine field. I haven’t sold a fucking thing. Here are a few reasons why I’m not crying the blues:

My horizon is long-term. I don’t give a rat-fuck what mouth-foamed short sellers bring to the conversation. People who actually know what they are talking about see a rebalancing of the sector in 2018-2019. I am betting on companies that have clearly stated they don’t anticipate profit until that time. One bad report from the EIA (after eight positives in a row) changes nothing. Wise men trade EIA data on a monthly basis or longer, not weekly. My big bets are on growth plays, not value plays. Do I wish I had bought $CHK at $4.50 instead of $5.50, of course I do. Do I care? Hell, no. With their asset base, it will be much, much higher in a couple of years.

Today’s Disclaimer: Don’t play this game with your IRA. If you don’t have a separate trading account stuffed with cash you can afford to lose, you are reading the wrong blog. This is gambling, Bubba. This is my play money. Buy some Berkshire Hathaway and walk away, son. And re-read my advice above.

…and then there is this:

As Brent crude oil closed on Wednesday at its lowest level since before OPEC and other nations agreed to cut output, someone bet half a million dollars on prices surging to $80 by year-end. (Bloomberg) — As Brent crude oil closed on Wednesday at its lowest level since before OPEC and other nations agreed to cut output, someone bet half a million dollars on prices surging to $80 by year-end. Options to buy 10 million barrels of Brent crude for $80 a barrel in December traded Wednesday, far exceeding the next-largest contracts, according to exchange data compiled by Bloomberg. Placed in two trades, the transactions were especially large given they were to purchase crude at 66 percent above the day’s closing price.

I don’t trade crude options. Or God-forbid, futures contracts (you would have to be out of your mind to trade crude futures).

Speaking of Geopolitics, keep one eye on events in the Middle East. The saber-rattling by the Saudis towards Qatar is most-likely the result of The Donald’s trip to Saudi Arabia to meet with the heads of Sunni Islam in advance of new sanctions against Shia Iran. Saudis have been buying massive amounts of arms for quite some time now. Conflict with two Iran proxies is possible. The implications for crude pricing would be profound. And don’t count on Libya or Nigeria either with crazed terrorists crawling about like ants. Venezuela is dissolving in a puddle of piss.

 

China is growing. India is growing. They will not be powered by the sun. Continue to stick your head in the sand and deny the obvious.

I hedged my bets by, well, hedging. Buying a healthy slice of $DWT, a 3X Short ETF, substantially lessened my risk and exposure. The Plan was to quickly sell the $DWT for a loss as I watched my oil stocks soar. Oops. However, that cut my losses almost in half.

I don’t have to tell anyone the results as the weaker stocks in my Oil Basket got decimated within 2 minutes of the surprise build. I didn’t even get to witness the carnage as I was on the golf course. That surely saved my score on the back nine. Yet $DWT rose a healthy 15% Wednesday and added almost 3% on Thursday.

Oil stocks are now ridiculously oversold.

I am still holding $DWT and will most likely sell it on Tuesday morning when I anticipate more short-selling from ravenous speculators on the short side. I also bought gold ($AU, $GLD) and added to $TLT. I sold the $AU early in the week for a quick +15%, the $GLD has not been as friendly but I’ll keep it around for a short time. My trading account and my current oil basket shows a few names rebounding strongly this morning even though Crude futures are currently selling at $45.72. My oil basket, currently consisting of 13 stocks plus the $DWT ETF, can be seen inside Exodus.

At this point I look at which equities in the basket are showing buyer interest at these levels and which are showing further downside. Not counting $DWT, my oil basket comprises about 8% of my day-trading account.

The nightmare has been $SN, aka “Dirty Sanchez”, my worst trade in decades. This would be followed by $WLL in the negative column. Neither has shown any life post-mortem. In the case of Sanchez, the Eagle Ford gets no love while the Permian gets showered with rose petals. That makes absolutely no sense, but so it goes. I will sell my Sanchez in two years at a substantial profit. Bank on it. I’m betting that Whiting is the target of M&A.

I like to watch after-hours and pre-market traders to get an idea of who is bottom-feeding what. Signs of life are apparent in $APA, $CHK, $PDCE and my largest holding, $XOM. In fact, $XOM, which I bought on June 1st, is in the green for the week. $CDEV, my second-largest, has a low cost basis as I bought the bulk of it at the ~$10 IPO.

I may pick up some $CVX as well. Both oil giants now have enormous exposure in the Permian Basin and coupled with dividends should bring me good cash flow over the next few years. $CVX has by far the largest footprint in the Permian and $XOM, via acquisitions, is a major presence as well.  $XOM was already battered over the last year and is selling at 52-wk lows.

Once again the API report on Tuesday was off by millions of barrels, although their numbers on gasoline and distillates were pretty much in-line with EIA.  Despite using the same data as EIA (as per the API website), one simply cannot trade the API data with any certainty at all. I have written about this in the past, and should have known better. So in essence, the 5% drop in /CL on Wednesday was purely on crude storage numbers. That is an overreaction by any measure, but that is driven by the spec futures traders, a volatile crowd of catamites.

Nothing has changed. Crude production numbers were down in the EIA report. I think you missed that. Catching a bottom is never an easy task. Oil is oversold. Patience.

Yet there will always be noise. Filter the noise:

Deputy Finance Minister, Vladimir Kolychev, told TASS that the Russian Finance Ministry expects the oil price will drop to $40 per barrel when the oil production deal expires in the first quarter of 2018

Let’s revisit the subject next week. Salaam.

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Oil Is Oversold.

I’ll let the Houston Chronicle headline finish today’s ranting.

 Permian Drilling Will See First Ever Decline

Wait. What? I thought we were about to crush the Saudis?

Oil fields in West Texas are teeming with drilling rigs after crude prices shot up to $50 a barrel this year.
But the Energy Department believes a key metric of drilling productivity is about to turn south in the Permian Basin for the first time since its analysts began tracking it in late 2013.
Next month, the daily oil production of a new Permian well drilled by an average rig will decline by 10 barrels to 630 barrels, the Energy Department said in a recent report.

Of course, that doesn’t even amount to a dent in the stunning productivity gains that oil companies have made in the Permian Basin over the past few years, but it’s an ominous milestone for companies that have touted increasingly efficient and productive drilling as a way to offset the financial pain of low oil prices.

It also coincides with another trend: In recent months, oil companies have drilled a lot more wells than they’ve brought into production. The number of so-called drilled-but-uncompleted wells in the Permian Basin is expected to rise to 1,995 in June, up from 1,348 last August, when the Energy Department first began tracking these unstimulated wells.

Both of these recent developments, analysts said, are signs that drilling rigs are coming back to the Permian Basin so fast that they’re far outpacing the speed at which contractors can ready fleets of hydraulic fracturing equipment needed to blast open dense rock formations and bring the wells into production.

Bet against Crude at these levels at your peril. But good luck, my friends, “all the best”.

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I am now overweight Crude Oil

“Buy low, sell high”

Crude Oil has been massacred, desecrated, shat upon and defiled. Despite the fact that the futures price of WTI is about the same as it was YoY, the current decline in oil sector equities, with some exceptions, has now entered record territory according to Exodus. So is this now a buy, or can we expect further pain?

Charting the Average Hybrid Score within Exodus by industry sector brings things into focus, Today’s Independent Oil & Gas score is 1.837 as of this writing.That is quite low, folks.

Things look no better in Exploration and Production sector, in fact they look worse. You have to go back to Feb ’09 to find lower Average Hybrid Scores within the Exodus algos.

I have been buying heavily over the past few trading days, opening or adding to positions in $APA, $CLR, $MDR, $MTDR, $MUR, $NE and $SN. A typical screen of just about anything in the sectors will yield an oversold condition on the 3,6 and 12-month signals. Some of them are literally screaming the OS news:

Risk aversion is high in the commodity space, oil is no exception. But what are the underlying fundamentals? I have been screaming GLUT for many months, whether referring to the feed-stock or the refined products. Oil, gasoline and most refined products are still at high levels. But a little digging unearths some interesting data. OPEC’s long-awaited meeting to determine an extension of voluntary production cuts caused a sharp drop in futures prices late last week, which has pushed me from cautious buyer to full-blown Bull. Here is why, courtesy of Phil Flynn’s Energy Report:

It is not nice to fool oil traders. OPEC and non-OPEC Russia paid the price for building up traders’ expectations of a longer extension of OPEC production cuts or even a deeper cut only to come back with a priced in 9-month extension of the current production cuts. As soon as the Saudi oil minister said that the safe bet was a ninth month extension of cuts, the market fell from a Bollinger Band high of $52.00 a barrel to a close of $48.90, down nearly 5% in a wild trading session.

Flynn goes on to explain why this could a massive buying opportunity:

OPEC’s sin was not an extension of cuts but their communication. The early announcement by Saudi Arabia that cuts would be extended by nine months was somewhat priced in and declarations by both the Saudis and the Russians that they would do whatever it takes to get the market in balance, made the decision just to extend a bit underwhelming.

Yet is the market’s reaction fair? Despite the market mantra that the current cuts are not working, the evidence is quite the opposite. U.S. inventories have fallen for eight weeks in a row and we should see that trend continue and the number of draws get larger. The Saudis now are saying they will reduce crude shipments to the U.S. which have fallen already by 1.0 million barrels a day from early March. U.S. refiners prefer heavy Saudi crude to shale oil as refiners are better equipped for heavy crude. (And Saudis now own a large refinery outright in the Gulf -Maven.). The trend of falling U.S. crude supplies should accelerate because the increase in shale output will be offset from falling Saudi oil imports.

Reuters agrees, writing that between, “April and May, U.S. crude draws averaged 3.4 million barrels every week, on track for the first decline for that period since 2008. U.S. refiners are churning crude at near-record levels. Refinery utilization was at the highest level seasonally in two years last week even ahead of the U.S. Memorial Day holiday, the de-facto start of peak gasoline demand. Saudi Arabia’s oil minister said on Thursday that the seven weeks of U.S. stock draws, along with a drop in floating storage, is “excellent news,” adding that exports to the United States were dropping measurably.” Reuters did warn that the primary offsetting factor is U.S. production, which sits now at 9.3 million barrels a day, 550,000 barrels higher than a year ago, according to EIA data.

Yet that may be not enough to offset OPEC cuts. We also are going to see peak shale oil production, or at least a plateau, in the U.S.. While U.S. shale has done a fantastic job in lowering costs, the trajectory of shale production will start to level off. The high decline rate of shale rigs and costs that are already start to rise, may slow shale oil’s meteoric rise. I am not saying that shale is dead. It will grow, but not at the current rate.

Buy low, sell high. I reckon I’ll be holding through 2019-2020. And remember, a spike in crude prices is often just a geopolitical event away. As always, this is not advice, this is an opinion. You lose your shirt betting on volatile crude oil, don’t come crying to me, rube.

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CNN Trivializes Manchester “Incident”

Clown Network News? Celebrity Nothing News? Comedy News Network? Will they ever get it? This is reprehensible.

What the actual fuck? Will CNN ever get how disconnected they are from reality? I actually thought this was satire from a parody account. An “incident”? Seriously? Everyone else on Twitter at the time was investigating, questioning and sharing information to determine whether it was Radical Islamic Terror, a suicide bomber or what-have-you. The big news, of course, was that this attack specifically targeted children and teens with white-hot shrapnel. CNN spent the time investigating whether a celebrity was safe.

I am not heartless. I am happy that the young marginally talented singer is OK. 22 are dead, scores horribly injured from a nail bomb.

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Hillary Clinton Is Running in 2020. Bank On It.

There is an organization called ‘Emerge America’. Founded as ‘Emerge California’ and located in the Communist Heartland of San Francisco, it has been infused with cash and is purportedly now a nationwide organization for training Democratic women to run for office.  A quick perusal of their website propaganda and you would think the Democrats were doing well in the last few elections rather than getting rat-slapped like little bitches. You would assume the rank-and-file were all solidly behind the DNC (you would be wrong about that one). The selective data on the website describing the winning percentage of their trainees, approaching rather lofty numbers, is highly suspect. I doubt they are doing much training in Wyoming and North Dakota:

Do not be fooled, future candidates. as promoting young women is not it’s primary function. It is partially funded by Susie Tompkins Buell, who according to Wikipedia, is “Hillary’s Best Friend”. Emerge America’s primary function is to recruit women to run alongside The Queen in 2020. The corruption of the Podesta-led Democrats is so pervasive that they started planning Shillary’s Third Run on November 9, 2016.

It is a last-ditch effort to keep the Two-Time-Loser relevant. It is the last gasp of the discarded Clinton Legacy…unless of course you ascribe to the theory that the vapid daughter is Heir Apparent rather than The Laughingstock Of Twitter.

I haven’t been writing much recently, since there are really only two stories the media covers any more…Trump’s tweets and Vlad Putin running the country from behind the curtain like the Great Oz.

 

But back on point. Hillary’s Best Friend has been bankrolling “progressives” for decades. She hosts fundraisers for David Brock and Media Matters at her lavish San Francisco home. The bio of Emerge America’s founder proudly touts Tompkins Buell as her inspiration and idol:

While starting Emerge, Andrea served for 8+ years as Political and Philanthropic Advisor to Susie Tompkins Buell, co-founder of Esprit Clothing and Democratic activist and philanthropist.

Wikipedia paints a different picture of the philanthropist:

In 1990, Tompkins Buell led a leveraged buyout that gained her control of the company, and netted her an estimated $150 million. Esprit emerged from the buyout so deeply in debt that it went into technical default on its outstanding loans within less than two years. In 1997, CEO Jay Margolis banned Tompkins Buell and all members of her family from entering Esprit’s headquarters. Also in 1997, Tompkins Buell filed a lawsuit against Espirit, seeking about $4 million in reimbursements from the company for tax payments she made after selling much of her stake in the company to investors.

A stench follows these people wherever they go.

You can read a lengthy 1997 SFWeekly article about the rise and fall of Esprit here.

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‘The Handmaiden’s Tale’ Updated For These “Eerie Times” Of Fascist Takeover Of The USA

Ahem. Now that I have your attention let me present this week’s media meltdown in a brief blog entry.

What is this? A remake of the 1980’s dystopian (remember that word, comrades) novel about a fundamentalist religious (did I mention CHRISTIAN) takeover of the United States?

Yes, dear reader, it has happened. Margaret Atwood’s dystopian nightmare has been updated to fit into these perilous times following the fascist takeover and suspension of the Constitution of the United States of America by the right wing. Eerily timely.

I did did a search via Google on the phrase “A Handmaid’s Tale”, with the intent of balancing this post with any negative mentions out there in the void. I went through twenty pages of fluff and gushing praise before giving up the Quest. There simply is nothing negative available about this laughable piece of feminist garbage written during the MSM’s manufactured scare re the rise of Evangelical Christians as a voting bloc on the Right. Ralph Reed as Emperor. Laughable.

The irony in all this, of course, is the portrayal of those on the Right as the ones restricting and ultimately suspending the Constitution while we have masked Communist goon squads assaulting senior citizens with pepper spray because they waved a flag at a free speech rally in support of the First Amendment.

Not to mention the preponderance of Pro-Islamic imagery promoted by those wearing pussy hats and dressing as giant vaginas. Because Islam

 

While simultaneously opposing the Second Amendment. The Agenda is quite clear.

Behold the bullshit:

“A dystopian tale of female subjugation that hits close to home” -Salon

“In a dystopicly polluted rightwing religious tyranny…” -IMDb

“In Trump’s America, The Handmaid’s Tale matters more than ever” -the verge.com

“The Handmaid’s Tale has been feared, banned, and loved. Now it is scaring the bejeezus out of us again” -The Washington Post

“TV’s Most-Chilling Trump-Era Series -Rolling Stone (100 days in, that was fast).

“The Handmaid’s Tale crashes up against Trump” -Politico

One has to wonder what the reaction would be if the misogynists were fundamentalist Islamists, a much more legitimate scenario.

And now we have cast members disagreeing – after the film was released at the trendy-leftist TriBeCa Film Festival – arguing whether the film is “feminist” or not. Apparently, this is serious discussion down in The Village.

Such is the state of the Left, the Democrats, the whole enchilada. It ain’t pretty. But it sure is fun to watch.

 

 

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Dat Antifa, Doe!

It is not easy these days being a Marxist out in the Streets of America. Dreams of an Uprising by the masses, led by the winner of the popular vote on November 8, 2016 (Complete with Andrea Mitchell’s hairdo). #RESIST

Things are going from bad to worse for our Anarchist Comrades. First they were beaten in Berkeley like stray dogs by fed-up Patriots like this guy:

 

Then mercilessly mocked on Twitter:

 

Now things are getting worse for our Young Communists. Much, much worse. This will not end well for our Millenial Muffins:

Welcome to the real world, my niggas.

But hey, thus is a financial blog, my brothas. Let’s cut to the chase: Pepper Spray. Everybody is using it now, tres chic:

Pepper spray manufacturers are a very bad investment. Everyone is making the stuff. A quick search on Google brings up some surprising numbers:

That is some crazy shit, my niggas. 17,171 items from 3,632 suppliers. The stuff is everywhere, just be cheap as hell. I should buy some just to keep in the vehicles…you never know. But where were we? Ah yes, Investing. Keep far away, my niggas. Case in point: Mace, Inc., selling on the Pink Sheets for years. “A piece of shit penny stock” as the Exodus database search function will tell you as it spits in scorn at the mention. “We are probably doing you a favor”, it admonishes.

 

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MSNBC Shills Show The Left’s Pathetic Tactics for The Next Four Years

 

What is it about MSNBC’s talking heads? Is it a requirement to be a recent college grad? A smirking dispshit with an obvious agenda? Just look at this face…what do you see? I see the product of current academia.

I see outright scorn in that face. I see a smug, superior product of our higher education system and I would love to see the résumé of this clownass. This is your fair and balanced mainstream media in action, pandering to it’s young and clueless audience of the mentally ill.

Now you know why they wear masks.

Prepare yourselves. Every race will now be labeled as a referendum on Donald Trump. At this point all the sane can do is laugh:

I thought Mr. Gray handled the idiotic questioning quite well. After being asked whether the race is a referendum on the President, his response was “well it certainly seems as if the Liberals want to frame it that way”.

He came off looking like the adult in the room and the interviewer came off looking like an Internet meme from Berkeley Antifa. Halfway through I was hoping this guy was going to show up with a rebuttal to the blatant assholery:

One question concerned an April Fool’s gag from a competitor and whether or not he took offense.

I think Mr.Gray will make a fine white male congressman. See for yourself, watch the negative shaking of the head while she speaks…and behold the smugness and agenda of the terrified left.

Then you have this guy, my new favorite Jewish Shopkeeper:

His smile at the end is PRICELESS.

We have created an entire generation (Millenials) of Marxist-Leninist assholes.

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Euro “Human Rights Court” Blames Russia For Deaths of Child Hostages in 2004 Beslan Massacre

 

How fucked-up is Europe? The “European Court of Human Rights” blames those who tried to save hundreds of children from being slaughtered by Chechen Islamists in 2004.

Masked men and women, wearing bomb belts, burst into Beslan’s School Number One, opening fire in the courtyard as a ceremony marking the beginning of the school year was finishing.
The hostages were crammed into their school sports hall beneath explosives strung from the basketball hoops. Their captors were demanding Russian troops pull out of Chechnya.

The “court” claims that the Russian government should have been aware that the Islamist terrorists were going to kidnap schoolchildren and slaughter them. You cannot make this shit up.

After three days of intense negotiations with the terrorists, the government decided to act to try and save them from annihilation. The court claims the Russian troops excessive force – against a heavily-armed band of cowards who had literally strung massive explosive charges right over the heads of the children. The court then levied  a “fine” against Russia.

The court was also critical of Russia’s investigation into the case, saying it was unable to rule whether the force used by the security officers was justified.
“Though the decision to resort to the use of lethal force had been justified in the circumstances, such a massive use of explosive and indiscriminate weapons could not be regarded as absolutely necessary,” it said.
It ruled that Russia should pay 2,9m euros ($3,1m; £2,5m) in compensation.
Countries must comply with the court’s verdicts, although the court cannot directly enforce this.

One can do nothing at this point but hope the French come to their senses and hasten the demise of the EU, the Euro Court of Human Rights and the rest of the globalist shit spewing from the Alt-Left.

Source:BBC

If you were a government official, what would you have done after three days? Held talks with these suicidal maniacs? Well?

BEHOLD your Religion of Peace:

 

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