Tue Dec 13, 2016 5:32pm ESTComments Off on Is Dow 20000 When the Shit Hits the Fan?
My first post on this blog was about the queasy feeling I would get every time the DJIA approached 18000. How quaint. But then again who among us would have predicted DJIA 20000 just last April? It is all madness, and we know this. It didn’t just shrug off 18000, it blew past 19000 and has been on fire since Election Day.
We know it yet most of us, once again, are staring into the abyss, certain in our ability to time The Correction even though the most astute among us has surely been spanked by irrational exuberance at least once in our wretched lives. And vice-versa. Getting the fuck out at the right time is a beautiful thing, though rarely achieved.
Needless to say we should wide awake as we move within 100 points of 20000. Watching the S&P VIX rise right along with the S&P. We have been here before. We are Professionals. Nimble traders. We learned our lessons in the last century, before the phones took over.
I added some $UVXY to the portfolio this week as another hedge along with my $AU and $TLT. I did cut back a bit on some TLT shares today and I am now at cost, factoring in dividends. Grandma Yellen, knock yourself out. With The Donald entering the stage, all bets are off. Will the Trump Effect continue? Stay tuned.
Energy space is soaring, thanks to the men in the white robes and our friend Vlad Putin. Has anyone gotten the memo about the Permian Basin yet?
Watching the Democratic Party and it’s accomplices in Big Media die a slow death right before our eyes is a wonderful thing to behold. But jumping into the scam that is the Great Jill Stein Fundraising Recount shows the depths that the DNC will sink – and it is unfolding before our eyes.
Blaming Vlad Putin for your problems turned out to be a lousy campaign strategy, Mrs. Clinton. As noted by a great Republican orator, you can fool some of the people some of the time…
I just watched five minutes of Fareed Zakariah on CNN and my head is still spinning. This clownass dedicated his opening to the concept of “Globalization” as the reason for the success of post-WW2 America. Globalization is no longer the anti-Western philosophy of Global Cultural Homogenization we thought it was. It apparently is the driving force behind capitalism. Here is some of Zakariah’s spew for your entertainment:
But first here is my take. Much of the world has been shocked and dismayed by Donald Trump’s win but there are those who are delighted. This was a victory for the forces which oppose globalization, are fighting illegal migration and are in favor of clean ethnic states declared global dawn, Greece’s far right party sometimes characterized as Neo-Nazi. The deputy leader of France’s right wing national front party.
What unified Trump’s foreign admirers is the idea that the existing global order is rotten and should be torn down. All the European parties cheering Trump’s victory, seek the destruction of the European Union and more generally, the close-knit western community of shared values and interests.
Yu see what he did there? He is blaming those trying to save Western Civilization for destroying Western Civilization.
They are almost all strikingly pro-Russian because they see in Vladimir Putin’s Russia a country that stands in opposition to the current international order and seeks actively to undermine it. Many of these groups take covert and overt support from Russia and they benefit from the Kremlin cyber warfare.
But what is this globalism to which these people are so opposed? Well, after 1945, in the wake of a great depression and two world wars, western nations established an international system that was characterized by rules that respected national sovereignty, allowed for the flourishing of global commerce and encourage to respect for human rights and liberties.
This order has resulted in the longest period of peace among the world’s major powers, broad-based economic growth that created mass middle classes in the west, the revival of Europe and the development of poor countries lifting hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. It also encouraged the spread of more freedom to more people than ever before in history.
The American role in all of this was pivotal. Washington set the agenda and provided the security which was about more than just deterring the Soviet Union and other aggressive powers.
There are many facets of what one would call Globalism. Hell, the Phoenicians, Egyptians, Greeks, Romans and Chinese were globalists. But we are talking about Cultural Globalism here, Fareed. That type of globalism that crawled out from some dank recess of your warped mind into the daylight, pretending to be something positive for our modern, western European, Capitalist, and dare I say it for fear of being branded a racist, free market society founded by enlightened Caucasians.
This is the globalism that we are told by the asshats at CNN is what we should aspire to, a happy mixture of cultures and religions all living peacefully together…which of course is a steaming crock of horse shit.
We are supposed to buy this crap. During the election process we were assaulted by memes such as Trump wearing a hat emblazoned with “Make America White Again” as if we were racists for supporting our own way of life. It suddenly became fashionable to vilify white people as evil incarnate. This was proudly on display in Philadelphia at the DNC convention as the failed mothers of young violent felons were paraded onstage as role models, for fuck’s sake.
Any one of the fine young men above could be Obama’s son, we are told by the Race-Baiter-In-Chief. Their behavior can be attributed, 100%, to white racism, we are told by the Democrats.
Fareed should be ridden out of town on a rail after being tarred and feathered. But why exert ourselves when we have Vlad Putin to lead the evisceration and public shaming?
Zakariah needs a hobby. Something other than the plagiarism he has been repeatedly accused of.
As for the appeal of The Donald, I will let Marine Le Pen, the next French President, explain it to you.
Beats consensus. IPhone7 above expectations. Ridiculous +24% beat on services, Second-Gen watch and iPhone7 will do well this Christmas, (not enough data to contribute to 4th-Q numbers), 10th-Anniversary iPhone in-queue, buybacks continue, $.57 dividend announced – stock drops AH as lame speculators who bought this morning and held thru close get crushed.
Cook has been making nice with the Communist Chinese, expect that to bear fruition vs other non-Chinese competition. Everything is cool in other markets, especially Europe. Ignore NA numbers, the smart money will. India is the main focus, as well as Japan and other Asian countries.
The biggest competitor on the high end was Samsung, before their phones started literally exploding.
The iPhone7 is a status symbol. The Galaxy Note 7 is a disaster. Take that any way you want to.
BUY THE DIP – while you can, under $115 Average down if further weakness tomorrow. See me in March for further discussion. The Tenth Anniversary iPhone Edition due in 2017 is rumored to be a game-changer. Everything this fine American company does is planned years in advance. Target $130 June 2017.
DISCLAIMER: Long, very long, AAPL. Follow me at your peril. Good luck to all.
You can’t make this shit up. His Royal Fuckface Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani, el Bagholder Numero Uno, holder of losses in DB estimated at over $1.2 Billion, is ready to step up and double down on his unfortunate bet.
Funds controlled by His Royal Dicknose bought 6.1 percent of Deutsche in mid-2014 and increased their stake to just under 10 percent, including options, in July 2016.
The first source also said that since the U.S. Department of Justice’s claim in September, he was not aware of any formal correspondence between Sheikh Hamad’s investment vehicles -Paramount Services Holdings and Supreme Universal Holdings – and Deutsche’s management.
The second source said, however, that Qatar’s continued involvement in the bank would be under the condition that it resumed focusing on its daily business and did not lose more market share in key businesses such as investment banking.
“They are too much focused on legal issues, the whole bank is ruled by lawyers at the moment. This needs to be changed.”
Lawyer Stefan Simon was nominated to Deutsche’s supervisory board in July at the suggestion of the two Qatari investment vehicles. He was placed on the board to keep an eye on the bank’s execution of its strategy, the source said.
The source added, however, that at the moment there was no pressure from Qatar for any changes in top management at Deutsche. “Execution is the issue, not strategy.”
Qatar’s ruling family and the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA), the country’s sovereign wealth fund, have suffered a string of paper losses on high-profile portfolio investments in recent years, including a stake in Germany’s Volkswagen (DE:VOWG_p), which is facing fallout from a damaging emissions scandal.
His Royal Goatfucker is not hurting for cash in the least, having recently purchased Picasso’s Les Femmes d’Alger (Ver O) for a record $179.4 million at auction.
ThinkProgress published a piece warning that the high-profile manhunt for alleged Manhattan bomber Ahmad Khan Rahami promoted panic and racial hysteria rather than vigilance and safety.
The main source of ire for ThinkProgress tech reporter Lauren Williams is authorities’ use of a wireless emergency alert (WEA) to let New Yorkers know who officers were looking for and encourage them to send in tips.
“The move drew immediate criticism for stirring up public fear, which could have potentially resulted in innocent individuals being wrongly targeted by citizens aiding police efforts,” Williams says in the piece. “While New York was within its rights to use the WEA system following the bombings, the incident raises intersecting questions about the over-criminalization of people of color [and] how they are treated by law enforcement.”
Heavy media coverage of the Rahami manhunt ended up being critical to his capture. Rahami was identified by a bar owner who recognized him from television and notified the police, who quickly arrived and captured Rahami after a brief shootout.
These Social Justice Warrior fuckheads need to be condemned, loudly.
Now that Apple has announced the iPhone7 and the 2nd-gen Apple Watch, we can once again sit back and watch the hysteria surrounding the event.
No, I am not talking about the fanatical devotion seen at Apple Stores around the world (especially Asia), with nutcases camping out on sidewalks for three days, living on Pringles, beer and dried sardines – and (one can only assume) pissing and pooping in plastic bags, just to be the first to have a new smartphone.
I am speaking about the hundreds if not thousands of asshole journalists and bloggers who cravenly write clickbait articles designed to generate three cents a click to add to their meager bank accounts and/or garner their share of followers on Twitter.
These missives run the gamut from Tim Cook hit pieces (never mind the enormous cash flow generated under his watch) to lame screeds from junior analyst clowns on Marketwatch. Only with Apple, will selling out your product on the first day be seen as a negative. At least the phones are not fucking catching fire or exploding. You can just imagine the histrionics online if it was iPhones blowing up on airliners.
Sorry, Samsung, but Amazon already has a patent on a device named Fire.
One poor schmuck (not sure if he slept on a sidewalk for his Galaxy Note 7) claims his SUV caught on fire while his smartphone was charging via the 12V socket. I wonder how he took this pic? Perhaps on his old iPhone:
Here is the winner of the Maven Clickbait Sweepstakes so far – from a CNBC cub reporter:
We are all relieved that tech-crazed Chinese are not selling their internal organs to buy a smartphone, as if this has been an ongoing issue in China. Cha-Ching (no pun intended) – another three cents.
Meanwhile, back in Cupertino, California, Apple is aggressively moving into the real-time medical data business via the iPhone and Watch. Apple Pay is being introduced in Japan (their preferred way of paying for things). A GPS incorporated into the 2nd-gen Watch opens up all sorts of App development (I will be buying one for my golf game).
Am I one of the dreaded Apple Fanboys? Goddamned fucking right I am. I view your hysterical bleating as mildly annoying noise. Perhaps you see no new product coming from an amount of cash that most companies would kill for as a yearly profit.
DISCLAIMER: long AAPL now going on 12 years. If it goes up from here, feel free to thrown rose petals at my feet. If it goes down, your losses mean absolutely nothing to me. I will reinvest my substantial dividends and laugh at you from my Ivory Tower. Trade accordingly.
“No one did anything wrong here, and we need to stand together. Ireland is being picked on, and this is unacceptable,” he said in the interview published Thursday.
Tim Cook says Apple could start moving some of its profits from its international operations to the U.S. next year
Apple Inc. Chief Executive Tim Cook said the company may repatriate at least some of the billions of dollars of cash it holds offshore as early as next year, in comments made in the wake of a 13 billion euros ($14.5 billion) tax clawback decision by European authorities.
Apple (AAPL) holds about $215 billion in cash and other liquid investments offshore.
The Apple boss also slammed the commission for appearing to focus on U.S. companies in its probes.
“I think that Apple was targeted here,” he said. “And I think that (anti-US sentiment) is one reason why we could have been targeted.”
“People in leadership positions in several countries tell me that this is the agenda. I don’t know where that comes from. But what I feel strongly about is that this decision was politically based, of that I’m very confident. There is no reason for it in fact or in law.”
Ireland has declared that it will appeal the ruling.
You want $15 billion of our cash? Fine, we’ll remove the other $200 billion from your banks. Oh and fuck you.
“You better start swimming or sink like a stone, cause the times they are a-chaaaaanging”
Fri Aug 26, 2016 4:49pm ESTComments Off on Abenomics, Grandma Yellin, Asshole Oil Futures Traders, MIssiles From Yemen, Frexit and More!
I don’t know where to begin.
I woke up early this morning to the usual smack across the face by my fucking dog at 5am and upon checking messages, saw that my Love’s mom had called me. Knowing that she (Love) had only recently emerged from Hospital after having some internal bits rearranged, I feared the worst. Turns out 90-yr old Mom had pressed the wrong button on the iPhone. OK, on to today’s news:
Grandma Yellin speaks today at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. A place you never want to go to unless you are skiing and it is March. Apparently, she has said Cautious Things and one of her butt-boys has said Hawkish Things and the DJIA has been bouncing around like a ping pong ball in Rio ever since. Yellin is the worst Fed Chair in my lifetime.
Iranian Revolutionary Guards posing as Yemenis have lobbed missiles of some sort that have landed somewhere in the vicinity of some Saudi oil operation, causing panic amongst amateur futures traders. Then again, *anything* can cause panic among amateur futures traders who are clueless morons. Oil has retreated from it’s spike over the bogus news from the Kingdom. I picked up some $DWTI on the news.
Japan: Annual deflation deepened last month, with consumer prices falling by 0.5% in the year to July. It followed a 0.4% drop in June and was the biggest fall in more than three years as businesses delayed price hikes because of weak demand. Conclusion: Abenomics has nowhere to go, the Japanese are practically begging Yellin to raise rates, not gonna happen, Abenomics is fukado.
Marie le Pen has fired the next salvo across the bow of the endangered European Union as she ramps up her call for “Frexit”. In other EU news, the British Pound is up smartly as Q2 numbers look good. Italy and Austria hold EU-Exit referendums in October.
“We can talk about what happened for a few days in 2005 and we should,” Obama said. “We can talk about levees that could not hold … about a president who only saw the people from the window of an airplane instead of down here [on the ground], trying to provide comfort and aid. We can talk about a trust that was broken.”
And now we have the Divider-in-Chief, golfing on lovely Martha’s Vineyard (on the ground, wrong state) and claiming he is staying away from Baton Rouge because his presence will be a “hindrance to first responders on the ground”.
Here is video of Donald Trump “hindering” first responders on the ground:
Can’t you smell the stinking, stewing, fetid hypocrisy here? Oh and did the mainstream press eviscerate Obama as they did Bush? Hell no, don’t be a naïve fucking moron.
UPDATE: two hours after GOP Presidential Candidate Donald Trump got “on the ground” in Baton Rouge too see the devastation first-hand, help hand out out food and give some hope to the devastated citizens of Baton Rouge, Obama announced he will visit…next Tuesday. One can only assume there is a bit more “work” needed on his short game. <spit>
Wed Aug 17, 2016 10:13am ESTComments Off on Greed and Stupidity in the Crude Oil Futures Market
Sept Contract futures jumped 50 cents on this news:
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum. Reserve) decreased by 2.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 521.1 million. barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at historically high levels for this time of year.. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.7 million barrels last week, but are well above the upper limit of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories increased while. blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories. increased by 1.9 million barrels last week and are near the upper limit of the average. range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories rose 1.8 million barrels last. week and are at the upper limit of the average range.
Total commercial petroleum. inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels last week.
Put simply, we are running out of places to put stuff. Labor Day in the USA is just around the corner, signaling the end of driving season. After that, gasoline consumption will decline. There is a reason refiners have been getting clobbered lately. Speaking of refiners, maintenance season looms and gasoline production must switch to the winter blend.
Oil production in the US actually increased, which should not be all that surprising as the number of active rigs has been rising all summer. Here in tax-heavy Connecticut 87 Octane is selling for $2.15/gal which means most of the country sans California should be well under $2.
Producers aggressively hedged when futures briefly peaked above $50 earlier this year. Expect more of the same, which is the great catch-22 of the whole game.
Iran is already balking at the notion of freezing OPEC output at current record levels. We saw the same scenario with the failed meeting in Doha.
Saudis and Russians are pumping furiously to maintain market share.
Iraq is moving forward with ExxonMobil and Royal Dutch Shell to ramp up production.
Of course the market makers at sites like investing.com are furiously pumping WTI, Brent, NatGas and even Copper on the news.