I Know…. Nosssink! 

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Regrettably, it’s come to my recent attention that my site has become infiltrated by black bag conspiracy nuts of the Alex Jones variety.  I would ask without undue rancor that knot-heads believing in the alleged 911 “Inside Job,”  the Barack Obama Birth Certificate Kerfuffle or the Bilderbergian/Illuminati Central Axis Hypothesis (whatever that means) to kindly pole-stave off to a nearby conspiracy swamp of their choosing.

You see, all political movements — left and right — have their nutty fringe, and I’d rather not indulge those fringes right now given the seriousness of our national economic and social plight.

 So please, continue thinking that you’ve got that Jewish Lobby Puppet Master thing all figured out, and do keep proferring your legal brief claiming Barack Obama is just George Bush in more fashionably cut business attire.   That’s all fine for the Cheetohs and Miller Lite– Lone Rifleman meetings you’ve been conducting in Mom’s basement apartment, but this site is not for such erudition.

And don’t get me wrong,  it’s not just about your poor spelling and ham-handed grasp of the Queen’s grammar that’s putting me off.  Generally, that’s an amusing byproduct, in truth.

No, the ban is really about getting serious.   We’ve got a little over a month to go to make sure the bums on both sides of the aisle get the message that we are too well informed an electorate to allow another ten year Great Depression to come about under our watch.    It’s time to make sure that we have representatives educated in economics and U.S. Civics as a baseline. 

 That means no more “government-first”  initiatives, and the only time the word “investment” should come out of a poltician’s mouth is when he or she is referring to the myriad free choices for risk capital available to the private sector.   If these rubes can’t understand “First, do no harm,” then they must at least understand “Stand down, and let the people govern themselves.”

You see, it’s an ironic verity that the PPP’s mentioned in today’s title are actually  giving the “government-firsters” ample cover by repeating their paraonoic’s claims.   In fact, it seems PPP’s can’t realize that the people who would imprison them are not wearing the jackboots of their dark dreams, but instead carrying the clip-boards and white coats of the empathetic and concerned bureaucrat. 

It’s this attitude of creeping  incrementalism that must end.   Only by remaining wholly rational in its face can we hope to return to the principles — by no means perfect, but always powerful and disposed towards freedom — that brought this country to its acme.

Instead of cursing the darkness,  light a blowtorch, and think about which candidates are seeking to keep your markets and by proxy, your civilization, free.  Then go and give them every hand you can spare.

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Looks like the dollar may have temporarily bottomed late Friday afternoon, as it’s rebounded about a quarter over the low $78 it posted then.  Tonight (midnight Monday morning) has dollar trading at $78.24 and gold and silver about flat.  I continue to hope for a bit of a pullback here, but I’m not counting any chickens and would advise caution in the coming days.   October is seasonally weak for gold, so you might be on the lookout for a nice bit of weakness with which you might ride Santa’s sleigh into the Yule holidays.

Still hedged on SLW and ANV, everything else is foot loose and fancy free.    My best to you all.

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Indeuuuuuuud!

 
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Monsieur Le Docteur (actual footage above) was toiling away in his mad scientists’ lab today in The PPT (located in a secure concrete and steel rebar-reinforced bunker buried deep beneath the last tree in Bed Stuy), and he came across a fantastic discovery that may very well account for the vast amount of winship I’ve been experiencing during this nine plus year secular gold bull.

Specifically, he reported this:

During all previous Oversold cycles (2.30 and below to 3.00) GLD traded up 85% of the time for an avg. return of 3.5%.  Best performer was IVN.

and even more curious, he finished with this additional information:

During Overbought cycles, GLD still went up 70% of the time for avg return of 0.76%

Could this be the very Grail that poor, waylaid Noble Sir Timmah was looking for?  The contrarian never-fail end to his troubles? 

I dunno, somehow I think he’d find a way to screw even this much up, but you never know.  Meanwhile, here’s IVN — the “oversold Tiger” mentioned above.   Ironically, I own little of this.  But then, I don’t high-volume trade much either:

Look upon the beneficence that The PPT showers upon you with the occasional freebie above.    Keep in mind, this is but one treasure from the horde of information waiting to be extracted from that pristine and beautiful engine.   How can you be so Pennywise a clown to eschew The PPT while risking a stark and foolish pounding?

Make haste, haste to give him laud, the Mage, the Fly of Harami!

That is all, carry on.

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Don’t dare ask me about the dollar, small pleb!
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Quickly, quickly now, as the spice melange takes maximum hold…  I shall reveal the revelations of the spice dreams as controlled by special Bene Gesserit training taught exclusively to me by Madonna.

First, I reiterate, with cement-like, no…concrete-like certainty, the devolution of this market will be marked by the application of much spice melange to my upper respiratory tract, especially my nostrils, where it is most tasty and vision-producing.

I envision our dollar to be entering some significant retrace territory on the weekly chart here, and soon, trouble:

As you can see, we are not yet oversold on the weekly (we should not be as we bottomed a mere two weeks back), but we are approaching some significant Fibonacci retrace levels at 61.8% of the latest large drop from the March to December ’09 period.

Not coincidentally, that huge dollar drop brought us our relief market.   Now I think she gets ready to drop once again, as the dollar “recovery” continues to weaken at the firm but effeminate hands of Ben Bernanke.

The dollar daily is even more immediate:

As you will note, on the daily, the Gom Jabbar  lies even closer to the neck of the weakling dollar, as it is overbought already after a mere 11 days since it’s last bottom-scrape.    A mere word will bring it to it’s knees, and I think that word is “Fibonacci.”

Or it could be “black candle,” even though that’s two words, technically.

No matter, gold held fast today, and as I commented to M. Le Docteur earlier today, whenever gold and the dollar rise simultaneously, it usually means one of them is about to break.   Today, the dollar blinked first but recovered.   The rest of the week should tell our tale.

In the meantime, gold and silver miners may continue to consolidate here.  While you are eating that sandwich and waiting for them to break out once again, take a gander at ANDE, the old Jacksonian agricultural stalwart.   I expect MON to recover here with the rest of the ags as well.

May the great red beard and moustaches of Frank Herbert bless you all, and good night!

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Screw Philly, I say.  I know mon ami, Monsieur Le Docteur de Le Fly was at one point contemplating a move to Pennsylvania (aside — I had a brother who matriculated at Villanova who called it “Pennsyltucky” — odd, no?), so I wanted to give him fair warning. 

The tax and spending vortex that is currently sucking the entire state of New York, and more specifically, the grand city of dreams, New York City, down the sewer drain does not contain it’s circling to within the triangular borders of my home state.  No, this is a whirlpool whose edges limn the very borders of Virginia to the south, Quebec to the North and as far as Iowa to the west.  

The whole northeastern and upper midwestern block of the United States is in fiscal trouble brought on by inefficient tax structures, failing demographics, imploding industrial bases and out of control government spending.  Each of these factors are damaging on their own, but taken in concert as they have been these last ten years, they sound a toll of doom for the region. 

The misincentives and ham handedness that have marked this progression are no better illustrated than by the City of Philadelphia (the once great Northeastern city) deciding to assess usage fees on bloggers within their jurisdiction.  What better way to discourage young thinkers and quite possibly entreprenuers than by assessing such a ridiculous lien upon their intellectual output?   What city ever grew by stifling its intellectual corps? 

But this is what these Northeastern and Midwestern cities are slowly but surely doing to their best and brightest, by dint of overtaxing the industrial base, ramping the governmental regulatory juggernaut and making the cost of living insurmountable for those who would seek to start a family in a safe place convenient to their work.  

Great cities are built on capital, both physical and intellectual.   That capital can serve as strong reserve in times like these, but it cannot suffer to be hollowed interminably without eventually realizing great damage upon that city’s historic cultural and economic structures.    We are not such an old country that we have stored the long term capital, many times compounded, of a London, Paris, Rome or Berlin.   Our cultural capitals have not the fuse to survive, should we set alight the same bombs those countries have sparked within their own economies, no matter how much earlier.

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I think we’ll continue to see a bit of a pullback in gold as the dollar makes its last stand here, but nothing to get excited about.  I may throw some more shrimpy calls on the barbie.    I may just eat a sandwich.   My best to you, in either case.

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Yes it is….

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I haven’t a whole lot to add, save that I expect a ripping bounce (at least) if not a further resumption of the dollar bow-out.   We actually came within four cents of hitting $82.50 after hours on the DXY (dollar index) and I wouldn’t be surprised if she tried for the 50-day at $83.06 after such a ramp.

That said, The PPT is very deeply oversold and that’s worked as a signal for me for the duration, so I will respect it.   The dollar has already busted into overbought territory on the 5-day RSI stochastic, and even the slow stoch is  catching up after being severely oversold just yesterday.  Expect volatility, but continue to expect dollar death.  It’s already back down to $82.25 this evening.

For tomorrow, in time-honored The PPT tradition, I will be soaking in a mixture of Epsom salts and TNA at the open.   As an after-bath aperitif, I will be enjoying a balsamic vinaigrette and gin reduction of ENTR, which wants higher, despite today’s crazy ride.

Gold is holding steady and so is silver.  Add to long term plays as you see fit.  RBY was even up today, God bless her.

Best to you all.

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If it were the Fly

Who would take out your eye

And pass off agua as deuterium

Would you offer a plaint

Or call on a saint

In hastening aforesaid delerium?

Tonight there’s ’bout three

Who’d cite “The PPT…”

As proof of mandated change…

But evolution states it.

Though ’tis we who creates it,

And we who would merit “the strange.”

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Buy gold w. both hands… I’m off again this week and will try to meet w. you in back alleys.

All the best!  Jake

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The PPT

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