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Yeah, we’re going to flush to the terlet here, with this Goldman Kabuki going on.   And now Merrill is getting into the act, too. 

Big whoop.  Like it’s a shocker that losers are going to try to blame someone else for losing money?

It’s the way of the world.   Blame someone else for your stupidity.   Tell me one thing, though… if you went to that Goldman Sachs trading room back in 2006, how many geniuses on that floor would’ve been betting on John Paulson? 

Yeah, that’s what I thought.  Not even Timmah was betting with Paulson back then.   Hindsight being twenty-twenty, though, let’s throw them all in jail now.   I’ve been in this business 20-years and I could’ve been in it 200… the story remains the same.  Chock full of losers looking to blame someone else.  Step off and take responsibility for your decisions.

Or just get the hell out.

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Meanwhile, Transport leader and king United Parcel Service, Inc. [[UPS]] made a giant move last week and only pulled back a little off of it with Friday’s mess.   Recognize, I believe it will pull back more with this long expected blow off we have expected, and we should experience more of this week.    But I also think it shows we’ve got more to go in this retardiculous (sic) market runup into the 2010 elections.  

Here’s where I think the buypoint for UPS should be:

This should also become a signal to you of when the market as a whole will begin to recover.  The Transports always lead, Charles Dow has yet to be wrong in over 100 years, and he’s been my sherpa for some of the worst market conditions we’ve experienced since the Depression.  

Put your faith in Chuck, watch United Parcel Service, Inc. [[UPS]] and look for gold and silver in extremis.  

My best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_qO66Rmi1Mw&feature=related 450 300]

Bring it!

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We be coursin’ out o’ the far lip o’ the storm and here it tis at her strongest.    With the power o’ yon circlin’ vortex, it will try to drag ye to yer briny doom deep in the cold confines o’ Davey Jones’ Locker.   Take heed, lads!

Make an eye on yon dollar representative [[UUP]] — note how he’s strooglin’ and dancin’ like a half-mad murth’rous boocaneer at the end o’ a strip of fine English gallows hemp?    He’s tryin’ tah break ye lads, and his murth’rous brither, $DXY has shot all it’s grape over $81.00 as oirly as this morn!     They’re after ye traisure lads, as shore as I was born a palsied pain and boirnin’ boyle to the British Empire’s arse!

Aim yer guns down, lads, right below the waterline of yon King’s Federal Admiralty First Rater, the H.M.S. BernYankme, for her three decks are festooned with dollar cannon, ready to sink ye with all hands aboard, and yor sparkly traisure o’ silver and gold as well!   

But beware the storm that assists yon bewigged and brass-buttoned scurvy Federal Redcoats, blowin’ out of the South Mediterannean, and the Aegean Sea.   Tis driving the dollar to new highs against the warped and besotted Euro.   Fill the lifeboats with [[DRR]] and other provisions such as meat pasties and cane sugar.   Despite the dollar tide being up near a full 100 basis points, [[GLD]] and even [[SLV]] are riding the storm well, which gives me good cheer, even as my cutlass runs red down it’s fuller, and my beard sizzles with ball and gunpowder.

[[SVM]] and [[PAAS]] which were laggards last week, seem to be holding out the best in the silver circus.   [[EXK]] , Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] and [[CDE]] are next in line, with my favourite (sic) Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] taking the worst of the tsunami wave for the rest of her crew.   

The cautious among ye will await the drop o’ DXY below the $81.00 sea line.   At that point, I think even the Treasury Bane [[TBT]] will be boardable without fear of it becoming a Jonah.   Me three favourite golds, Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] and IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] seem to be holding up in that order as well.

Hold hard mates, I see a calm horizon when this sqall be done.

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“Ash Wednesday” by Carl Spitzweg c. 1855-1860
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Have mercy upon me, O God, according to thy loving kindness: according unto the multitude of thy tender mercies blot out my transgressions.

Wash me throughly from mine iniquity, and cleanse me from my sin.

For I acknowledge my transgressions: and my sin is ever before me.

{Psalm 51, “The Miserere Mei,” Verses  1-3}

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Developing…..

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Omm Nom! Nom! Nom!
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Looks like Mr. Limm and kin are trying to take away our punch bowl.   Not bloody likely, I say.

You see, the Chinese really only have one way to cauterize the inflation wound they are already seeing in their economy — and that’s by removing themselves from their peg to the U.S. dollar.  They can make all the noise in the world about raising reserve requirements and dampening loan growth, but they will will still strain to be heard over the “clack-clack-clack” of the U.S. Mintex 3ooo Printing Robots in the basement of Ben Bernanke’s Transylvania Castle.

I say, if the Chinese refuse to de-peg their currancy and let the Yuan run free, naked and untethered, they ought to just continue to get drunk and buy stocks.    It’s the only rational thing to do when you are allowing your currency to be devalued right along with that of the Great White Ghost across the Pacific.  

And let’s face it, there’s only so much iron ore, coal, copper, lead, zinc, chromium and every other heavy metal for industrial usage left in this globe.   Outside dredging the Hudson River, that is, but even that reclamation project is years away.   The Chinese know all this and realize the only way to keep those prices cheap to them is by miming along to the dollar prop story.  

Again, raising Chinese reserve ratios is not going to do that if Helicopter Ben is easing quantitatively as fast as his machines can print, purchase and store massive haystacks of U.S. cabbage like he is.   We all know (and yes, the Chinese leadership knows) that fast cash to you is just heading right back into the Chinese economy via click-bought and big box consumer goods purchases (oh, and look here, retail sales are strengthening… wonder where those goods are coming from?).  What’s more, that money, once washed up on the shores of the South China Sea has to go right back into the commodity markets as the Chinese continue to build out infrastructure and purchase raw materials inventory.

Here me now and believe me later — The Chinese cannot “whip inflation” by themselves while they are tied to the dollar, and while their growing economy is tied to our consumption.   These are infrastructural realities that are not going to change because the Chinese CB has decided to take a stern line on lending reserves.  So sorry.

My take?  Eat a samich (sic) this morning until at least 11 am to see where the market settles out.    Gold is currently down only about $16 (less than 1.5%) and silver, as usual is taking it harder, down 44 cents (2.8%), with the DXY at a current $80.64.   I continue to believe this is a shakeout, and that the dollar will not continue much higher than here, despite all this “nooze” circulating to keep it propped.  If we break much above $81, however, I will be forced to reassess, and perhaps take a little off some of my riskier metal plays.

Best to you all.

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Update:  I notice in my haste to get out this morning’s post that I neglected to give you a run down on yesterday’s purchases (which were recorded in real time on The PPT, of course, as were today’s).   Yesterday I added to the following positions:

2k Petroleo Brasileiro SA (ADR) [[PBR]] @ $40.60

4k Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]] @ $8.46

2k Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] @ $12.66

2k Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] @ $12.67

10k NGAS Resources, Inc. [[NGAS]] @ $1.62

1K Sociedad Quimica y Minera (ADR) [[SQM]] at $37.06

This morning’s purchases (also “adds”):

2k [[PAAS]] @ $21.75

4k Gold Fields Limited (ADR) [[GFI]] @ $11.75

 

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Everything must go!

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As the Turkey Gods take awkward flight from the Bridges of the Kosciuszko (sic), so too they leave with Mom’s silverware firmly “en beak.”

And hey, what a shocker that the markets found an excuse to sell themselves into perdition this late in the daily cycle, no?  Who would have thought?   

For my part, I was only happy that I was afforded the chance to sell some more gold and silver positions at only a slight discount to Wednesday’s highs.   Today, I cut into the actual bullion positions, with a 5k sell of [[SLV]] at $18.02 and a 1k sell of [[GLD]] in the $115.40’s.  I also boosted the last (600 shs) of my [[AGQ]] position just south of $68.

For those who’ve been paying attention, that’s about 50% of each PM position in my port if you include the 40 Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] April $55 calls I sold today (at $4.80 and $4.90) as well.

I also dumped 2k  more Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] in the $13.02-.04 range.  I am now up to 30% cash overall, and if you exclude the large position in United Parcel Service, Inc. [[UPS]] that I cannot sell, I am very close to 50% in cash for the remainder of the portfolio. 

Here’s what else — I expect to sell more Monday and on any knee-jerk bounce in the early parts of next week’s “Tryptophan Rebound.”   Remember:

The Ghost of a Turkey God does not a Turkey God’s Blessing endow.  (Confucious)

I may throw up some charts, but for now, I am taking the Jacksons to 50% cash as well, with a “butcher’s cut” slap chop to every position in uniform fashion.   I will likely post that revision this weekend along with said charts, if you are lucky, and if I am not overburdened by post-Holiday catch-all catch-up here at the homestead.

My take — this is not over, even as I concur with many on this boar that the Dubai thing was a rasher of extra rancid bacon from those who eschew such lovely pork products in their nutritious diets. 

Be cautious, and be wary of stopped-watch bears who are right once a quarter.   Best to you all.

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