Yes it is….
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I haven’t a whole lot to add, save that I expect a ripping bounce (at least) if not a further resumption of the dollar bow-out. We actually came within four cents of hitting $82.50 after hours on the DXY (dollar index) and I wouldn’t be surprised if she tried for the 50-day at $83.06 after such a ramp.
That said, The PPT is very deeply oversold and that’s worked as a signal for me for the duration, so I will respect it. The dollar has already busted into overbought territory on the 5-day RSI stochastic, and even the slow stoch is catching up after being severely oversold just yesterday. Expect volatility, but continue to expect dollar death. It’s already back down to $82.25 this evening.
For tomorrow, in time-honored The PPT tradition, I will be soaking in a mixture of Epsom salts and TNA at the open. As an after-bath aperitif, I will be enjoying a balsamic vinaigrette and gin reduction of ENTR, which wants higher, despite today’s crazy ride.
Gold is holding steady and so is silver. Add to long term plays as you see fit. RBY was even up today, God bless her.
Best to you all.
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Dollar is going up. Like politics, you are blinded by faith.
More like the opposite of faith.
Common sense.
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PS — who does that guy look like, minus the chapeau?
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What you call common sense, I call lunacy.
Let’s leave moon worship out of it, eh? Fed prints more money to launder garbage, dollar loses value is not common sense?
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Better still to leave common sense, faith, and lunacy out of it. Don’t fight the tape. The dollar index appears to be headed upward at this time. If anybody needs a “reason” for it, then figure that Bernanke has effectively declared the US to be in a depression. The depression fears of the early oughts sent the DXY to 120.
Agreed on the “trade what you see,” — however, you must also note my charts from yesterday, which showed a severely oversold dollar due for a bounce.
If you think this is a permananent directional change, in other words, we’d have argument.
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What is permanent? In the case of the DXY, I am inclined to think it unreliable to analyze as it is the components that drive it, not the other way around. Of course, in the “it’s all one trade” bear market, this factor is less important.
A few years out, and it’s Argentina here. But that’s a process, and the market has thus far largely ignored Bernanke’s actions and words.
Take a look at the ten year chart on the dollar and tell me that with a straight face.
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I don’t attribute that to central bank action(s). The only proof of it will be in the reversal, which is in progress. Might take a year, but it goes past 120. Then, when things get truly desperate, the real printing will begin.
To what would you attribute the downfall in the dollar over the last ten years?
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no idea.
Darken the hair, comb it “Don Draper-style” and lose the lid.
(Sitting to Cronkite’s wife’s left)
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http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/8/2_Jim_Rickards.html <- 17mins
Jake,
Have you heard this? Your thoughts?
Nice call on ENTR.
If I hadn’t checked the timestamp, I would’ve thought you were needling.
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ah, no. Not my style. I save that for my wife. See that it’s off now. Sorry.
The Fly said I should come here. Is this where the troublemakers hang out?
He is a grumpy man.
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I should have picked up more PM’s yesterday. Damn!!
LOL. This post matches your avatar scowl.
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Jake,
Any favorites in ag space over the long term? I’ve been tracking AGU and MOO, but wondering if there are any other mattress stuffers out there?
Thanks
ANDE and MON are in my Jacksonian Portfolio as long timers. MOS and POT are always fun to noodle with, and for the truly adventurous, there’s “you never know when it’ll be nationalized by Putin” — WBD.
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Interesting… it appears that silver and gold are decoupling from this bullshit dollar upmove.
How… common sensical of My Precious!
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All the news anyone with common sense needs to know:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9U4Ha9HQvMo&feature=youtube_gdata_player
In a word, debt. While I don’t much care for Bernanke’s mischaracterization of foreign loans as a “global savings glut”, the foolishness of these and domestic lenders cheapened the dollar. Such credit is dwindling, the dollar should thereby strengthen.
FYI, I also have some gold as a hedge against the early arrival of Project Argentina. However, I have no great faith in it and no plans to add to my position at the moment. I own no miners, but have made money on them in the past. That Homestake chart that everybody is so fond of is misleading. Homestake benefitted tremendously from the upward revision in the gold price, drastically reduced expenses, and a management that applied the increased profits to the dividend. While I cannot find any direct support data, it has also been alleged that their productivity went way up during the early thirties as well. The peak was in 1935 (this is the date where the chart is usually cropped at, not a surprise). Point is, I find it unlikely that modern gold miners are going to enjoy a similar level of price appreciation, particularly in the near-term.
Of course not… why would they benefit from upward revision in the sotkc price and reduced expenses?
Most of the miners I’ve owned are up over 5x since I’ve bought them, so you may be right. They may only double or triple from here.
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5x? You bought them in the ’08 crash? Or from the Vancouver exchange? If a pro can’t buy it, I wouldn’t consider it as an investment grade asset.
SLW, sure.
Not all of them. For instance, I only started buying ANV at under $6. So that would be a little over 3x.
I don’t buy anything that trades exclusively on Canuckistanian exchanges. I’ve learned that lesson.
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Strange..
Started 2 positions awhile back, USD/CAD short, EUR/JPY long
Euro is gaining over 3x faster
Perhaps the Euro is a Direxions product?
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