If the Market’s not Crashin… Hey! It must be the Mon-ay!
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I haven’t a whole lot for you tonight.   Most of the PM’s held up pretty well today as the dollar shilly shallayed about, dancing the mazurka to a deflationary beat.  I”m especially fond of EGO, IAG and SLW’s  “holding up” action today despite the cannonades from the Depression Era Debutants.  I happen to think ANV is offering a nice dip purchase opportunity here as well.

Save the drama for one’s mama, fellahs… the dollar will tell the tune, and it already is.   Here’s the daily for the “close-up” look at where we are in the cycle:

As you can see, there are some conflicting stochastics here, but if I have to choose a marker, I’ll usually go with Woody’s favourite (sic) — the 5-day RSI.   There’s no clear path here, however, and the situation will resolve itself when we are out of that 20 to 50 day EMA channel referenced above.

The monthly chart on the dollar may offer a bit more direction.   This last looks like an exhaustion candle to me, but then I’m biased.  

Occam’s Razor  tells us, however, that Ben and the CBE boys (not to mentiont the Ministry Of Finance in Nippon) will hit the QE button again in order to save the banks and avert a deflationary vortex.   Why will they save the banks?  Because there will be no second TARP… not in this election cycle.   What other tools have they at their disposal?

Moreover, the Fourth of July is a historically solid up week.  Will this year be different?

You make the call.   I’m heading off on vacation, blythe and fancy free.   Mostly.

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 Here’s the origin of today’s title:

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RtSDWq6HsJE 450 300]

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Get ye a loverly (sic) tomato or a specially inscribed “collector’s edition” JakeGint mug!

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Oh it’s cascading knife times like these that demand the use of The PPT to weather the hot blades of imminent portfolio cut-pursing!

It should make no manner of matter to you that The PPT‘s inventors are, collectively, an unrepentant Obama Voter from Pizza Island, and a crazed technophile man-child long since nailed-up inside his mother’s basement (by his own mother).

For the love of Ike & Mike and their subsequent Massachusetts nuptials The PPT has been saving lives over these last few weeks–  pulling children from burning buildings, quelling vast hive-swarms of killer bees, applying sun screen to sensitive ear lobes and high foreheads– metaphorically speaking of course.

But of course also metaphorically speaking “And Mooooore!”  

You should go in there (in to The PPT) sometime.   There are people in there offering plum cakes and first born children to the Fly for saving their retirements and their marriages.   You probably think I’m kidding.   I assure you I am not. 

We’ve really got a machine going in there, we lucky few, we sceptered islanders, we England.  

Sometimes, I almost wish Fly’d give Ducati a few days in there, that’s how generous I’m feeling right now.   He’d have to promise to be on his best behavior of course, but who knows what a glimpse of heaven might do?

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For my part, I remain in my bunker of gold whilst molten asteroids rain down from above, leaving gaping wounds in the loamy veldt surrounding my doors of filagree-worked platinum. 

I like gold here because it’s my anchor at $1,242+ and “steady, steady now.”   I know, I know, Jim Rogers says he’s not buying it, and he’d rather buy silver or even palladium.

But what’s quite odd is that Rogers has been saying that same thing since late 2007, when gold was in the low $700’s.   Silver has increased as well since then, but on a much more volatile basis.   So I like gold on days like today, when some of my silver stocks (like SLW and PAAS) were down 4%  while GLD was up a bit in response.

You see, even though I don’t like to trade like a crazed jack-rabbit on meth, I am human like you, and I don’t like to see my portfolio roiled like an upset stomach at Coney Island.

I’ve got too many things going on, you see.   I’m sure most of you do as well.   I am seriously contemplating getting more physical positions here, just to cut down on overall volatility.   Something about that weight that makes one think less about trading, maybe….

In other news, today’s sell-off affords an opportunity to tippy toe in.  The PPT Crystal Ball of Courage tells me it’s time to wade back into the pool very soon, perhaps as soon as mid morning tomorrow.    There are many ripe tomatoes dangling on the vine right now.   Claim them before the clacking begins anew.

My best to you all in the coming days…

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I think some of the calls for gold’s downfall I’ve been seeing coming out of the Deflationista Community may be a mite premature.   As a matter of fact, I don’t think we’re seeing anything here more than a sharp pullback from an extended four week move.   Given that the move was a breakout, however, I think we’re headed for continued gains after it’s been consolidated.  

First, the weekly gold chart shows where we we’ve come since the breakout from the larger consolidation in October of 2009:

What we’ve been seeing for the majority of 2010 has been a consolidation of that late 2009 breakout… until we just recently (over the last four weeks) began to break out of that consolidation as well.   This last week was merely pullback from that break as well.  Note the daily:

Now we are oversold even from that brief pullback.  This is not to say there won’t be additional consolidation, but only that we should not confuse the ill health of the overall cyclical stock market bull with the far better condition of the continuing secular bull in gold.

Enjoy the day, I shall be about, but busy.

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Lost My Shirt, Danglin’ by a Thread… Still Got the Girl, For Now

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Just a little bit longer, now I think.

I told you I took advantage of the Bollinger Band crash trade  (thanks for teaching me this, Gary) today when I purchased some kookie SPY calls at 1082, yes?   Well, you can see how that worked out.  But then, these crash trades almost never work out right away, even though they seem to work out over 90% of the time, in the more intermediate-run.  

Point is,  I think we’re pretty close to a bounce,  where I will GTFO of those calls, and hopefully back into some nice dry gold lame suits.

The gold market seems to be holding up okay, and that Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] weekly chart I showed you yesterday is still holding that trend line, if only barely.   The $HUI index also looks  like it’s ready to finish it’s plunge here as well.   Maybe just a little bit more on the daily, here:

Oversold on the RSI, and the stochs are not far behind.   I think the touch and go will coincide with the rest of the market, maybe as early as tomorrow.  Here’s the weekly for perspective:

Still like the bigs, including Goldcorp Inc. (USA) [[GG]] , [[GDX]] and Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] here, but also Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] and IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] .    On the silver, [[MVG]] seems to be holding up well.   [[EXK]] took a big dump, as the small caps will do, but I think it’s a bargain hunter opportunity.  Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] remains your best buy in the silver sector.

Step slowly, if at all, and I will see you all tomorrow, God willing.

PS — The PPT has been invaluable the past few days.   Fly has been on fire, and he’s even more available and open about his strategy there, away from the leeches.   It’d be well worth giving it a whirl for the summer, I tell you.

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We may get some pull back here in the golden markets, as — ironically — the dollar declines and the Euro strengthens. This reversal would be a sign of diminishing panic, and may be taken as a cue for traders to offload some “bunker assets” like gold and silver and lovely platinum, the precious platypus of heavy metals (much like the late Ronnie James Dio, R.I.P.).

But as I said to a faithful reader today — do not forsake the bull for the distress of  an uneven ride.  Bulls can be ornery and force one to pour over the Yeller Pages for the solace of a chiropractor, but they are in the end, powerful avenues to wealth for long term trend traders. Until much further notice, we are in a PM bull, and all eyes should be focused on the quality names.

As a result, I must fall back to Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] again, despite their recent capital raise that has their stock back on it’s (round) heels. Still the weekly path could be no clearer here for those still waiting to participate:

The daily is a little more hairy but describes some nice entries.   I like the 20-day here ($18.64) , but only if it holds like it has been since March.   It’ll be worth waiting for, I think.

On the silver side, I liked [[EXK]] ‘s action today, but I still love Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] for the long haul.   Here’s a look at the weekly chart and SLW’s quest for a more tolerant planet:

And here, again, the considerably uglier daily chart, which I believe is still under voice-command until further notice:

In short, I think opportunity will be knocking soon, in it’s best Vince Sham-Wow “Limited Tyme (sic)” pitch guise.   There will be others (for example Cree, Inc. [[CREE]] and Veeco Instruments Inc. [[VECO]]   who shined through today) but these are my two current foundation plays.  

I am leaving Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] out only because it’s a different royalty animal, but I’d get any of that that was available as well, should we dip on the PM side.

Stay strong, despite the mugfuls of black charnel soap bubbling in your Campbell Soup Kids’ cawfee bowl.

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What do I always say to you about dire times?  You want to buy gold, silver… and pasta of course.   What are you going to do, eat heavy metals that are far more useful worked into cheery adornments and dental hardware? 

No, of course not.  

In times of rising food prices, you want to eat staples that will fill your belly while providing you the carbo-rush you need to get you through those crucial trading hours between early morning sugar frosted bombs (and coffee) and late afternoon Butterfingers bar from the vending machine (and cawfee).

You need pasta to fill your demanding gut.   With some red gravy, or maybe some butter, or a light slathering of pesto.   You want the hot hot penne, the tri-color wagon wheels, the masticola.   So, it seems,  do many others, if judging by today’s nice action amidst Col. Kurtz’s “horror the horror” market show (brought to you be Procter & Gamble) will attest.

Check what this li’l beauty did today among the carnage that is all things not precious metals:

Now granted, this sucker had good numbers today… with expanding gross and net operating margins.   That’s all good, but you know that the real reason for [[AIPC]] ‘s increasingly good numbers is “the new frugality.” 

Embrace it, pop it in your mouth, swish it aroun your tongue.   It’s the latest thing.

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Not the latest thing is the relative strength of gold and to some extent, silver, in this downdraft.   Yes, even with [[UUP]] threatening $25 again, and the dollar index (DXY) being over $85 this afternoon, it seems the PM’s are holding their own.   This bodes very well for them on any reduction of the dollar’s recent climb.

That said, my perfomers today were [[GLD]] and [[SLV]] , Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] and Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] , and [[EXK]] and [[GDX]] , IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] and Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] , my favourite here.

I like all the PM’s until further notice… they’ve decoupled from the dollar, and that can only be a good thing.

I also got hammered today in Monsanto Company [[MON]] and [[TBT]] , as was so kindly pointed out by my own personal troll.   Amazingly, I bot some more MON just below $60, though not far enough below.  I continue to like both names.

I am near exhaustion level, ladies and germs, business is that crazy.   I’m sorry I didn’t get to post a new one to you intraday today, but I will try to be there, at least through the comment section, in doozy dozy days like today.  Be safe, as Fly says, but look for the rebound here tomorrow.

My best to you all.

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