There is nothing like “living for the moment,” and I won’t begrudge the staunchest of my conservative reader base a splash in Fly’s Pool of Carney Delights, over on his blog and in the incredibly exciting “User Notes” section of The PPT . Let me assure you, ladies and gentlemen, there be some astute trading minds throwing Kruggerands around in that room.
That said, I’m sure glad I’ve got the bulk of my holdings in the JCHP, my friends, because I’m not sure how much time is going to be left in this “bring your own lava lamp” filthy 70’s-era hot tub party. I think I already see some unpleasant objects of questionable birth rising up amongst the bubbles.
First, I’ll draw your attention to our friend, Mr. U.S. Dollar. He’s pretty much in “do or die” territory here, and frankly, I’m thinking we’re in trouble whether he strengthens or not. Lookee here — remember our faithful dollar proxy UUP?
Well, heck if he’s not banging around down at the same December 18th lows that set the timer going on our next market plunge (which occurred about two weeks after the dollar started to climb again). And here’s what’s worse… the dollar can continue to go down here, but I’m not sure that’s going to benefit our stock markets much, either.
Why? Well because there’s another bit of business the dollar keeps low if it’s behaving, and that’s our Treasuries’ interest rates. If we show relative strength in our dollar, then foreign investors are willing to keep our debt. But if the dollar keeps getting mauled here… well, those same folks might not be so kind to our lovely treasury paper. Remember back when we first advocated TBT as a Jacksonian pick? Here was the chart:
We were expecting a nice move up, and we sure got it — in spades. However, now the rapid run up in rate must give us pause with regard to how much longer the music can play. Look at how far we’ve come since that last posting:
Bang! All the way above the 200-day EMA. Now you know I’ve been selling calls against my position here, in anticipation of a pullback. Well, even as I expect a pullback, I’m just as ready to take a loss on those calls if I see this thing launch anymore than it has.
Remember, TBT is my “Stock of the Year” pick in Rajun’s annual contest, and I continue to believe TBT is going to be the play of the next three to five years, minimum, thanks to the unwinding that will have to happen in our long term bond rates. That said, high interest rates eventually take a bite out of stock prices, so we are going to have to be even more synched than ever with the JCHP.
Remain vigilant my friends, and make sure you attend to RGLD. I believe it’s the harbinger of our gold holdings’ future. The other PMs will follow it’s lead, but it will likely become the star of this Jacksonian portfolio in future.
UPDATE: I added another 1,000 shares to my SSRI holdings today. I will add another 1,000 if I see further weakness, and then I will likely be “full up” in this name.
______________________________________________
26-May | % Change | ||
ANDE | $ 24.95 | 6.90% | |
GDX | 41.84 | -0.50% | |
GLD | 93.76 | -0.73% | |
IAG | 10.56 | -2.76% | |
MON | 85.25 | -1.57% | |
NRP | 22.75 | 2.43% | |
PAAS | 21.64 | 1.03% | |
RGLD | 45.38 | 2.53% | |
SLV | 14.42 | -0.55% | |
SLW | 9.49 | 1.61% | |
SSRI | 20.82 | -4.19% | |
TBT | 55.07 | 2.80% | |
TC | 8.73 | 1.04% | |
TSO | 16.73 | 3.08% | |
Avg % | 0.85% |