Loin Girding Time

That’s “Loin” not “Lion!” 

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We’re a little bit over a year into my tenure here, and we’ve probably had three or four “one of those days” days since I started. 

Today was one for sure.

This is life in the PM bull, friends, and we should be used to it by now.   I expect we are not fully shaken out, although that over 10% move in the $XAU index today might have scared some people off for the next decade or so.

That said, opportunities abound.   [[EXK]] was even up by the end of the day, and Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] filled two large gaps from the prior month’s work.  In hindsight, I likely should have taken the opportunity last week to sell some calls, as I’ve done in the past, but frankly, I was just too busy.   That’s why I choose to play long term secular bulls like the gold and silver markets, however, and that strategy has served me well.

So buck up Cowboy, and get ready for some more bull-riding, pleasant and not so much.   The good news is those with some dry powder can still grab some great names, perhaps as early as tomorrow morning.   I’ve mentioned Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] before (I also like Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] here), and you will remember this weekly chart from a couple of days back:

Note we’ve touched that trend line today, as I’d predicted.   We may do so again tomorrow, but that mid $17’s area remains a primo area to pick up some nuggets.  

On the silver side, besides the two I’d mentioned above, I think [[PAAS]] is still one of your better bets, and riding that weekly trendline like a refusnik on the potato line.  

Feel free to stop by here, or The PPT to discuss stocks and trends.  I’m here for you during the roller coaster times.

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Liberty – 1, Cynicism – 0
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Let’s make something clear… The Jacksonian tattoos (“tats”) are in, and Ive already signed two for posterity’s sake.

One is Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]]   — big surprise, no?  Well, what is really going to surprise you is that shareholders of SLW will now have to submit to a plenary mandatory tattoo.   No fear ladies, there’s a very small and “chi-chi” version, only one centimeter in height, with  a sublimating daisy.  

It won’t hurt a bit I promise.

For the men, there’s the flaming skull motif, but that shouldn’t take more than 45 minutes.  Man up, this stock is worth it.

Addenda: Docteur Le Fly, le Monsieur, is calling for the end of the world.   Act appropriately.  Offer him Caymus Reserve  if he begins getting agitated.  That is all.

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We may get some pull back here in the golden markets, as — ironically — the dollar declines and the Euro strengthens. This reversal would be a sign of diminishing panic, and may be taken as a cue for traders to offload some “bunker assets” like gold and silver and lovely platinum, the precious platypus of heavy metals (much like the late Ronnie James Dio, R.I.P.).

But as I said to a faithful reader today — do not forsake the bull for the distress of  an uneven ride.  Bulls can be ornery and force one to pour over the Yeller Pages for the solace of a chiropractor, but they are in the end, powerful avenues to wealth for long term trend traders. Until much further notice, we are in a PM bull, and all eyes should be focused on the quality names.

As a result, I must fall back to Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] again, despite their recent capital raise that has their stock back on it’s (round) heels. Still the weekly path could be no clearer here for those still waiting to participate:

The daily is a little more hairy but describes some nice entries.   I like the 20-day here ($18.64) , but only if it holds like it has been since March.   It’ll be worth waiting for, I think.

On the silver side, I liked [[EXK]] ‘s action today, but I still love Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] for the long haul.   Here’s a look at the weekly chart and SLW’s quest for a more tolerant planet:

And here, again, the considerably uglier daily chart, which I believe is still under voice-command until further notice:

In short, I think opportunity will be knocking soon, in it’s best Vince Sham-Wow “Limited Tyme (sic)” pitch guise.   There will be others (for example Cree, Inc. [[CREE]] and Veeco Instruments Inc. [[VECO]]   who shined through today) but these are my two current foundation plays.  

I am leaving Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] out only because it’s a different royalty animal, but I’d get any of that that was available as well, should we dip on the PM side.

Stay strong, despite the mugfuls of black charnel soap bubbling in your Campbell Soup Kids’ cawfee bowl.

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You bring the dough, I’ll crank me goooolden pasta machine.
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Have you just arrived at my blog after visiting the site of M. Le Docteur de Le Fly? Did you watch that video with the eerily calm-voiced man who is sketching our collective doom via Youtube videation?   Are you now in need of a mug of chamomile tea in order to calm your nerves?

Well, goodness knows, there’s other comfort foods available for your consumption, including Jake’s yummy pasta.  Remember this [[AIPC]] name from the other day’s post “Pennies for Pennes?”    Here was the original chart from 10 days ago:

And here was Friday’s close — a mere week later: 

Keep in mind, that’s a launch off support in one of the worst week and halves of trading we’ve had in 15 months.  Admit it, you didn’t touch this stock, because you thought maybe I was nuts, offering Italian carbohydrates whilst the Greeks burned the Parthenon down.   But you must keep in mind that trending stocks that display relative strength in bad markets are generally some of the safest names you can own in a storm.   

I think [[AIPC]] may take a rest/hit tomorrow, and it may be a good time to scoop some up.  Don’t wait too long, however.  There’s someone after this one, I think, and he’s/she’s/they’re no piker.

Speaking of strength in the storm, let’s not forget that [[GLD]] and [[SLV]] have been acting very cheery in the face of this Eurotardation, much to the chagrin of Mr. Samsonite Hamburg-ALL-er and his boss, a Mr. The Devil Dog.    What’s more, even the miners, which tend to wane in sympathy with the overall markets, are showing strength.  

If you watched M. le Docteur’s scary video, you may find the answer therein.  Me, I’m not going to invest in reverse-Oliver Stone type fright films, but I do know a trend when I see one.    As you can see, my plan remains the same, and so does my target for the Amex Gold Bugs Index [[HUI]] :

I like what I’ve been liking for months now, but I may not have mentioned them all, so here are some look sees:

Gold miners (Large): Goldcorp Inc. (USA) [[GG]] , Yamana Gold Inc. (USA) [[AUY]] , Newmont Mining Corporation [[NEM]] , and [[GDX]] for the grouping

Gold miners (Medium): Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] , IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] , Gammon Gold, Inc. [[GRS]]

Gold miners (Small); Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]] , NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) [[NG]] , New Gold Inc. (USA) [[NGD]] , Northgate Minerals Corporation (USA) [[NXG]] , [[BAA]] , Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] , Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]] , Taseko Mines Limited (USA) [[TGB]] and the catch all [[GDXJ]]

Silver miners: [[PAAS]] , [[CDE]] , Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] , Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] , [[EXK]] , [[MVG]] , [[SVM]] ,  and the catch all Apex Silver Mines Limited [[SIL]] .

Royalty plays:  Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] and Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp. (US) [[TRE]] for gold, and my baby Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] for silver.

Best of the litter — Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] and [[PAAS]] for silver exposure, then Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] and [[GDX]] for gold glamour (sic).

Best to you all, have a nosh of rotini, get some sleep and do not let the Samsonite Hambug-ALL-ers bite!

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V.King Relative?

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Some people asked me about some stuff to buy on a pullback, and well, I still love Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] despite their pulling off the egregious “bought deal” $250mm + dilution yesterday night.

I think the buy is pretty obvious on the weekly:

If you can buy off that trend line in the high $17’s, low $18’s, you should be sitting in clover like a greedy leprechaun and his keg o’ gold.  Lookee here (sic) at the daily:

As you can see from the chart, I had an order in to buy in the lower $20’s region, which hit after I was out of the office today, and I’m perfectly fine with it.   That said, this thing could go to the 20-day EMA ($18.41) very easily an even a bit below that.   So I’m keeping powder dry.

I’m not going to post these charts, but I will also be looking to add silver on any weakeness.  I really like Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] as you know, but also [[PAAS]]   is showing great relative strength, as is [[EXK]] and [[CDE]] .   I might add to my Smaug’s horde on a pullback here.

Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] and [[MVG]] are the second string, but sometimes HL gets a real boost from the local alchy’s with a sentimental touch.  Watch them all, and think about Apex Silver Mines Limited [[SIL]] as a catch all in the realm of [[GDX]] , except for silvers.

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Best to you, Jake.

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In the later stages of these “C-level” cyclical bull runs (unfurling within a secular bull run), it often starts to get giddy-gigglyfun, especially with the junior miners, who all begin to pop audibly, like champagne corks, as the end of a run draws near.

Who doesn’t like 8, 9, 10, 11 heck, even 12% moves in one day?  Like [[BAA]] today — who’d have thunk it’d raise from the dead after so many weeks of dormancy?  I mean, besides me?

That’s not quite right… I didn’t know it would take off today, only that it would within the confines of this cyclical bull run.  That’s why I own 20k shares of this and have owned other small miners ( Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]] come to mind) in the past.   They are, in essence, unexpiring options at these prices.  

Here’s [[BAA]] on the weekly chart, finally getting some air off the broken downtrend line:

As you can see there’s a lot of room to grow there.  

And here’s Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]] which recently spun off a $3 stock [[EXGMA]] , which you’d have to add to it’s current $8 stock price (we bot the consolidated company in the low sixes, remember?).  Weekly:

Despite this junior giving birth to another junior, she seems no worse for wear, and in fact, stronger than ever.

   Keep an eye on these names and others from the small cap portolio (Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] , Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]] , [[EXK]] ,  etc.)  as I have a strong suspicion they will continue to break out to our unending joy and to our enemies great chagrin, for a good piece going forward.

Stay vigilant,  and watch [[UUP]] for clues to the immediate future.

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