Summer Scirocco

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vSwJlv0Bljg 450 300]

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Let’s not forget what it’s all about, okay?

What’s that? You forgot?

It’s all about “Quantitive Easing,” the jim-fuggery way of saying, “printing zeroes, lots of ’em, to get us outta this perma-jam til we think of somethin’ better!”

Know this now and forever, however:

There is no Recovery Only Zuul, and Zuul is cents on the dollar, which is going to turn back to its old ways here, soon enough. Or sooner. Look where we are on the monthly which gives a nice ten year plus eyeful:

 That  38.2% fibonacci retrace line illustrated above is a Golden Ratio line — one of the strongest (along with it’s inverse 61.8%) in the psychologically uncanny mathematical metric .

Not unusually in the least, that same exact line shows up — almost to the penny — in our weekly chart as well, this time as the 100% fibonacci retrace in the intermediate term.   Note —

So, as the activity in gold and silver, platinum and even oil and the lesser metals to some extent (TIE, RTI)  has been telling us for about a week now, it looks like “they” — the Fed, the ECB and the Japanese MOF have been hitting the liquidity enema solution one more time.  

That’s one big hammer Bernanke is flailing about.

I sure hope he doesn’t hurt anyone.

Best to you all, and stay with the rockets.   Also, GSS and EXK looked good today. 

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The pot is beginning to burble over to the extent that I believe we are approaching one of those periods where even the crappy little small time gold and silver miners will begin to shoot golden fountains of coyne (sic) out of their arses.  Tonight I offer two to hold until the 4th of July, at minimum.   In the penumbra of the rockets red glare, there ye shall banque.

I have a bunch of these in my portfolio both as “option” investments and as long term plays, and they are usually characterized by their “less than $10” price range.  

Like an undiscovered vintage of small California vineyard Cabernet, however, these little gems tend to be “unearthed” and then the real fun begins.  I remind you here, and tell you later — SLW, EGO, ANV, and even IAG were all sub $10 stocks less than 18 months ago.    I believe these two juniors, and perhaps also GSS, possess similar characteristics.

First, my current favourite (sic) in the small popper category is the lovely FRG.  After announcing a measurable find in their most recent presser on Monday, they have been somewhat “off to the races.”   I think the release was just an excuse for the baby to rally.  She’s been waiting a while:

You probably remember this chart from late April on my site… well now you can see it is on it’s way to new rocket heights.

The second name is NGD, one of the famous “Three N’s” along with NG and NXG.  I like them all, but NGD seems the most promising for the next month or so.  Have a look at the weekly:

(Shit!)

It’s just breakout out above long term resistance at $6.50 and you see my target of $9.50 in the short term.  

I’m holding it for much more than that, but that’s the way I roll.

Best to you all.

Keep watching the best of the best, too — SLW, ANV, EGO, IAG, PAAS, EXK, XRA, MVG, CDE, even GG and AUY.    If you want ETF’s there’s GDX, GDXJ and SIL for the miners and GLD and SLV for the solid stuff.

Live long, prosper.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DgwJJ3pXvOw 450 300]

(Appropos of nothing, really)

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I don’t even know why I attempt to suggest other varietals.   Is it the desire to be au courant?  The obligation to entertain?  Devil-may-care hair in the wind type stuff?

I don’t know, but really… it’s just plain silly.  There’s a single bull market at play here, and this is what we are about.   I had a bunch of positions take egregious losses today, most notably those in the “hot but not” LED space, like CREE and (worse) VECO.    POWR hung tight, but I can’t imagine that nasty Friday WSJ article will leave it be, either. 

I even took a small bit of VECO off today, in the mid-33’s, because I figured it would be a while until I saw that position back in the drivers seat.    No matter, as I bought more AGQ with the proceeds and promptly saw it rise a buck and a half (to $60 a share).  Is there anything more exciting than having one’s steed cut down from underneath one in the midst of pitched battle, only to find a stronger charger at the ready?

That is why I was not down today, despite egregiousity in the above names and even some other hard metals like TC and TCK.  It was all due to the gorgeous strength of our gold and silver portfolio.    I speak primarily of the silver miners, including SLW, PAAS, EXK, SVM, MVG, CDE, SSRI and HL.   But the gold’s included prized champions like RGLD, ANV, EGO and IAG, who were stalwarts too.   

Note how the $HUI index held up today on the weekly:

Am I wearing cats’ pajamas or is that thing looking like it wants $520?   You tell me.

Then there’s one of my favourites, ANV.   She’s just been a trooper since we picked it up just under $6 last year, and is seeming to have no trouble moving on three times that size.  Note that strong weekly consolidation?

 

And the daily looks just as promising, after a decent pullback:

Another promising pick, and one I should leave alone and go macrame a duvet, or something “crafty” like that.  God knows I’m only dangerous going outside my “comfort zone” in the PM world, and He surely sent me a signal today.

May be time to re-assess and de-stress.   Real money is coming back into vogue once again.

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 [youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jgoG5o7Jsk4 450 300]

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I’ve been mooning on about precious metals to make your head loll in zombie-dead fashion, haven’t I?  I’ll shut up for another day (yesterday I talked about banks, remember?) and discuss some other picks dear to my heart instead. 

First, let me point out that today was a tight fisted, play-the-Obama-speech, earl (sic) and gas flinging session for the majority of The PPT members inside that eldritch sanctum today.   Many a new position was opened in the nat gas and earl sectors, though your humble servant reserved his coinage only for a small addition to [[ERX]] and a new starter position in Fly’s latest find, the barrier island building [[GLDD]].

But my fellow iBankers have already mentioned multiple carboniferous energy plays for your enrichment, so I will hold off and present instead two metal names in my portfolio that I think are worth a glance at this (critical?) juncture.

The first is [[TCK]] or Teck Cominco, which, like the Nine Travelers at Lothlorien, stands at the “edge of the knife.”    The weekly chart is self explanatory (and the daily is quite useless, btw) — price must hold at these levels or the stock will see $25 very quickly.  

That said, I like this name, and barring any unforeseen circumstances, I think this name rebounds to the $45 level with the rest of the XME-like names, if this rebound scenarios continues.  Wait and see, first, however.

Another of my favourite non-precious portfolio metals is [[TIE]] which has been looking almost unnaturally healthy these days.    Given the consolidation in specialty metals, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this company taken out at some point in the next twelve months, and that could be what investors are seeing too.  First, the weekly is looking like it wants to break to free air:

Looks good enough to grab right now, but I think the daily gives some very nice direction regarding a proper buy point:

Let’s keep an eye on the gold and silver here as well.  Looking for Gold to stay above $1,200, here.  If it does not, I will have additional commentary on my follow up moves.

Best to you all.

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It Burns! It Burns!

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Let me first apologize for my inability to post last night. It’s a long story, but let’s just say it involved egregious, home-wrecking (figuratively and literally) home repair arcana which prevented me– via “boy in the bubble” -style plastic sheathing– from reaching my home laptop without risking catastrophic ruin to both home and marriage.

Luckily, I’ve ingeniously derived a path to said electronic tools, and even  — bonus! — unto my very wine cellar.   Alas and alack, all my wine glasses are also encased, Young John Travolta-style, behind aforesaid egregious plastic bubble.  They mock me, even now, in light-hearted crystalline tones.   Resulting situation?  I may go “Mayberry Otis” on a bottle of 2005 Mondavi right here, right now.  

Tell no one.

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Where was I?  Oh yes, the banks.   Boy didn’t it seem like last week was the begining of the sequel to late 2008’s monster hit– Bear Stearns/Lehman II, Electric Bugaloo?   But let’s get serious — when was the last time quantitive easing was bad for banks?  Well, it’s certainly not bad for banks that have crapola bonds on their balance sheets when the ECB and Fed are acting like willing buyers in the market place.   Get on the QE II Cruise Liner, people.

For stabilisation (sic) purposes only, please. 

No folks, they are not going to let those banks die again.  “They” are stupid, and “they” are short sighted, but they are not going to make the same mistake twice.   Not in a … what? (Cups hand to ear)… Go ahead, say it with me… Not in a whaaat?

NOT IN A FREAKING ELECTION YEAR, Baby!

Come, come– I know you are desperate for some serious chart action.  You cry out for confirmation of my biases, and I will not disappoint.   Slake thy thirst on this weekly of the $BKX (the Philadelphia Bank Index):

Four out of five weeks down, sure, but where has our price found purchase, and even (dare I say it?) a phat DOJI?  That’s right, at the same 34-week EMA that’s served as mother’s comfort lo these last eleven months. 

And those were “recovery months,” which I don’t think will be fully completed until we test that 200 week EMA up there (in red) which, by golly, sure looks like it wants to at least decrease its slope, if not stop descending altogether.  Ain’t that a thing? 

Now lookee see, here, I’ve got another juicy and nutritious daily chart for you, and yes, it’s the $BKX again. 

No, it’s not pretty but in this case, it’s the 200–day EMA that’s serving as support as well as that significant support line (we’ve used it before) at just over $49.00.   I think the printing presses are winning this one, son, and they are not going to let those banks go down without a much more serious fight than we saw last week with the Greco-Spaniard panic attack. 

So prepare ye for more clack-clack-clacking that will lead to much ack-ack-ACKing.   

This market may very well be setting up for a great fall (perhaps, in the Fall?), but I think the powers that “try to be” will continue to stuff those banks so full of banque notes and letters of exchequer that you won’t be able to address the tellers for the interchange of proper monies. 

They fight the last war, that’s what they do well.   Look not ye, then, unto the burning FAZ -mobile!  And whilst ye may not wish to grab polar opposite FAS, I continue to think BBT and FITB are decent holds in this environment.

And lest we forget,  continue to look to the PM sector as your hedge to this egregiousity, as always.   

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I had a reader inquire on the last posting about the state of some of my favoured (sic) silver-golden children. I speak particularly of [[SLW]] and [[IAG]], of whose Canadian charts, he was somewhat ill-taken. Point of fact, I think he was experiencing some painful reverse peristalsis, to cadge a term.

He mentioned also [[AUY]] but while I’ve spoken of them before as a decent buy and hold, they fall into my “aquiror” basket rather than potential “acquiree,” one and therefore I find them less appetizing.

But still nutritious with regard to a balanced portfolio of course!

Back to [[SLW]] which you all know holds a favoured place in my heart, much like one of my children, save not breathing or in need of sustencance, and quite weighty for it’s size and youth.   Whenever I need some perpsective on these names (or any names, s’truth) I repair to the weekly charts for a more holistic gander.  In this regard, SLW shows us a pattern in good standing:

As you will note, we are consilidating after breaking to multi-year and yes, “all time” highs.  If anything, we’re forming a bit of a handle whilst using the 13-week EMA as support.   Not exactly cause for alarm given the 13-week’s reliability over the last 15 months or so. 

Next let’s look at the weekly for the Gold Man Sacks, otherwise known as [[IAG]]:

IAG may need some time before it  breaks back above that $20 mark that defined its recent high back in November of ’09, but this consolidation pattern is by no means a sickly one.  The 13-wk EMA serves as the stalwart in this case as well, and should be watched as IAG grinds higher.

[[AUY]] is the least pretty, and frankly, its last quarterly earnings report denote some work that needs to be done before it can recapture it’s place of “honour.”  Note the Limbo in which it currently finds itself:

 While I believe this is a decent “buy and hold,” I think AUY likely has at least a quarter or two more to go before it can attempt to break to new highs.  It, too, should hold abover the 13 week EMA, but in this case, the real test will be a break of $13.

Good luck and do not fear, as I believe the dollar will be our friend going forward, in ascendency or demise.

Best to you all.

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One last thing:

Happy Memorial Day to all, and especially to our veterans here and departed, without whom we would never have the pleasure of these inter-tube conversations. Thank you for your sacrifice.

And a special treat — the inimitable Renaissance Man and combat veteran Mark Helprin has a special Memorial Day essay that is “must” reading for all sensible citizens of this great land.

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