Playing Auld Aegypt

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gb_qHP7VaZE&feature=related 450 300] Why Democracy Always Fails in the Middle-East
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The Cradle of Civilisation (sic) has been giving us quite a bit of trouble recently, wot? First we had 20 years of taming Mesopatamia, and now, in the stomping grounds of old Ramses himself, the crowds are making noises like they are going to throw off the yoke of old Catcher’s Mitt Face and his various progeny, including son Gamal  (although I give Gamal Mubarak some kudos for marrying what has to be the best looking woman in Egypt, if not the whole damn Middle East); much like the Mesopatamians (with not inconsiderable help) gave the gallows treatment to Sadistic Saddam in Iraq.

Well, don’t bet on it, Tutankhaman. 

Call me cynical, but I think when you are talking about corrupt, massively bureaucratic  7,000 year old civilizations, shit doesn’t just “Viva la Revolucion” into a new happy-dappy government — even the meta-Islamicist kind– without the intervention of many, many well armed troops, preferably of the non-Aegyptian variety.

That’s right folks, I said it.   If anyone is going to take this ancient and corrupt shit-show on the Nile, it’s going to have to be heavily military-backed.   And guess what?  Last I looked, the defense ministry of Aegypt was taking down $2.5 billion pe annum in prime U.S. gelt as payment for the Sinai Accords some 33 years ago.  Payments that are — by contract — slated to be paid IN PERPETUITY!   You think that’s a payday anyone in their right mind — no matter how “Islamicist”– is willing to forego? 

So with the Tea Party Congress coming into power, and eyeballing crazy-assed guarantees like that, what better way to illustrate to the world the value of that BRIBE than by showing just how fragile that geography really is?  And oh, by the way?  Our new Congress has also been grumbling  (cough, cough- Rand Paul! — cough!) a bit about our subsidies to the State of Israel — another three billion per, and, coincidentally also contractually guaranteed in those same Camp David Accords.

Cynical?  Yes.  The way the Company has been operating the Middle East since it morphed from the OSS in the late 40’s?  Um, also affirmitive.

So we’ll see what we shall see, but let’s not have any talk about cutting Aegypt or Israel’s money lines just yet, shall we?   We wouldn’t want that awful Muslim Brotherhood to actually have to take on the trappings of rule, and really deligitimize Radical Islam once and for all, would we?

What would we have to talk about around the Danish bar, right?

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All the rest of you pikers can attend Saint Francis University  about how Aegypt “caused” Friday’s much predicted cataclysm.  For the last time, Aegypt was merely a convenient trigger–  an trader’s excuse for selling of a broadly overbought market.  The Ben Bernank has powers of levitation which are considerable when mixed with green ink and grey paper.   They are not, however, immortal powers.  Truth be told, they are more mortal than man.

So wise up.  We’re in for a nice sell off here.  If we get some levity tomorrow morning, don’t be stupid.  Take that as you cue to lighten your load.   And no, I’m not getting back into gold or silver miners either, although I am allowing my buy-stops to hit, like I did with SLW the other day at $29.05.   My EXK buy stop was not hit, mind you, though I expect it will be still.

As I said on the previous page, I may be wrong, and I may be waiting too long to pile back in.  But having the scars of many an early move on my back, I will hesitate here.  I can afford it, after all, having outpaced the majority of the market by doing just this — riding the precious bull for all it’s worth, while avoiding major pitfalls as well as possible.

Best to you all.  Wait for the signals.

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Unsurprisingly, gold and silver are not done bottoming, as per today’s evidence, and to my favourite Kansas Cityan’s temporary chagrin.  And like the dollar reflects the value of gold and silver as it crashes, so gold and silver serve as lodestone for the direction of the dollar. 

See, gold taking a bloody digger like it did today is not consistent with a plunging dollar.  Quite the opposite.  And remember that daily silver chart from just a few days ago?  Here it was:

Those were the predicted directions.   Now, let’s look at the same chart as of close today:

Wacky, no?  We reversed almost completely the pop we had the day before, and gold did worse, achieving recent near term lows for 2011.

It might get even worse, so hang on, and deploy capital sparingly.  I have added to my ZSL  about two hours before the end of yesterday’s session.  I felt a pained fool at the time… “but I got better.”

Here’s what I’m really getting at.  Take a look at this very large Fibonnaci Retrace on this almost three year dollar chart :

Now I realize the above chart is a bit busy, almost akin to the Punch Buggy Post we had the other night.  However, you need only take into account a couple of things.  First, we are hovering almost exactly at the Golden Ratio — the 61.8% retrace of the  large dollar move from the depths of the last Bernanke dollar destruction in March of ’08, to the peak in early March of ’09, when the market bottomed.   This is a significant resistance point for the dollar, in my opinion.

Second, we are also very close to the rising trend line in the dollar.   I believe the dollar is far too oversold to break the longer term trend at this time, unless of course Bernanke just starts shooting Benjamins out of cannons on K-Street tomorrow afternoon. 

So, if by chance that very strong Fibonacci line does not hold tomorrow, then I believe the uptrend line will in the next few days.

Whichever the case, we should get a snap back in the dollar, no matter how brief.  I think we see at least a 5-7% correction out of  that dollar, which will likely include our miners.  I may lay some more DXD, QID, and SDS at that point.

I also think our miners will rebound first, so be ready to start collecting.   Best to you all.

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Mama!  I’m hooooome!

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Oh Denky boy, the goats, the goats are calling
From poisoned well, and down the slag-pit side
The Ceausescus are gone, and all the beetroots dying
‘Tis you, ’tis you must go, my lovely mail-ordered bride.

But come ye back when th’ goatherd’s in the meadow
Or when the valley’s flushed with car-o-bolic snow

‘Tis I’ll be here in radiated fallllll-ouuuut
Oh Denky boy, oh Denky boy, I love you so.

And if you come, when all the beetroot’s dying
And I am broke, as broke I well may be
You’ll come and find the space where I am hiding….
And kneel and close the manhole cov’r on me.

And I shall hear, tho’ soft you tread above me
And all my Magnum re-runs will warm and sweeter be
If you’ll not hail the great Bernaaaaank-keee
I’ll simply slip the noose ’round nearest tree…..

I’ll simply slip the noose ’round nearest treeeeeee
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Remember the cycles, and the patterns. One can hear the goats bleating from here…

No changes today, save additional patience.  Best to you all.

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And by the early sixties, so was the Lone Ranger
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Enjoy your frapjous day, and bank your daytrade capital returns, bottom callers, for you called the bounce correuctly (sic).   Silver was oversold today, and as a result, the metal enjoyed the slightest of rebounds along with gold (more muted) and even some of the larger cap market.  

Behold the egregious oversoldedness (sic) and note what my crystalline bawls tell me  of the future:

The odd thing is,  the crapulous dollar continued to struggle on, not quite selling off, but definitely not rising like the phoenix either.   It appears besides making soothing statements, Chairman Benjamin is loosing pillowcases of feathers upon this market, excoriating it to “Fly! Fly!”

Alas, a passel of loose feathers doth not make a winged bird, or even a flightless apteryx.   No, it looks like the dollar, too, is oversold, and perhaps seeking a final dip before strapping on it’s BAR for a slog back up the hill:

 And EXK was purchased today by some (though not by me)– a nice pickup at $5.40 if you got it there.  I think it could even go to $6.00-$6.20 on the second day of a bounce.  I will sell more of my stash there, if it gets to that point.   Silver stocks, too, will take on a familar sheen if the dollar rebounds here, as scheduled.    And while I felt comfortable today grabbing some of the much more oversold (and higher quality) SLW at $29.03-.05,  I still contend that  EXK must complete its journey:

Keep this intuition in mind:  one does not buy the metals happily after an egregious pullback.   Rather, one buys them grimacing, and with chitinous trepidation. 

When you feel that grippe, then let it rippe.

Be well.

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…………………….And get in the Funnel!

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No more screwing around funnel dogs, you’ve had your play. Now it’s back in the funnel with all of you.

I added some DXD today to my egregious whip of S&P and Russell 2000 short ETF’s. Why? Because the $INDU weekly chart is as overbought as I’ve seen it in the last five years.

Take a look at this weekly:

Sorry this is an abbreviated post tonight, but I’m having a hella time seeing and saving what I’m putting into the blogging box. Could be some antepasto was spilled on the server, or maybe it’s WordPress, but I’m getting out while I’m ahead.

This is your time to hedge up. Continue to sell here, raise cash, and Saint Francis University.

Best to you all.
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You See Kid, It’s All About the Proper ‘Stache
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Well, the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets lost… and many a friend, relative and associate is in mourning tonight.  I can almost feel their pain.  It’s tough to get so close to the Superbowl and then lose in a disjointed effort like that.  But the Jets should take heart, as they’ve a team to build on.   As well, the Steelers have indubitably the best defense in the league, and perhaps the best coach.  

 And let’s face it,  for the Jets to win a third playoff game on the road would be considered by some to be a near miracle.

I say “near,” because of course my own beloved Giants have performed that 3-Road Game Playoff Win feat, and topped even that by beating “the Unbeatable” New England Patriots.  You remember the Giselle Bundchen-related Patriots?  The team who had gone unbeaten in every game in the 2007 season…

Except the one that counted, I mean.  Heh.

No matter, the industrious Steelers pulled off the same carny trick the year after, albeit against a far inferior opponent.  Nevertheless, Mike Tomlin is great, Ben Roethlisberger is a loathesome pig, “Go Packers!”  and let’s move on…

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You want to know what I think the dollar is doing here?  I think it’s getting ready to rumble.  It’s been drip-sell, drip-sell, drip-sell for weeks now, and yet gold and silver have been pedaling in air, rather than soaring.   That means gold and silver, in their heavy, shiny brains know something.   This is what I think they know:

We might get a scrape below $78.00, but I think that’ll be the dog and the frog.  You’ll know the dollar is done diving because the market will crack like a ten week old egg left over from a third grade science project.  It’ll be smelly.  Are you prepared?

Everyone is asking me when I’m going to buy you-name-it– SLW, EXK, GDX, ANV, EGO etc., etc. 

Listen to me when I tell you that when its time to buy these things again, you will NOT want to do so.  Hear me?  Stop being so damn anxious and go have a clove cigarette and a warm paraffin foot bath or something.

In the meantime, here’s where I see EXK, you greedy little pigs, you:

Now remember that’s a weekly chart up there, so things will move slower than we’re used to seeing on the daily, and that distance to the buy is a site farther than it looks.  It might be three or four weeks from now.  So chill.

And here’s a bonus for you dynamite-strapped rocketeers out there.   If you try this, play it small because it’s wilder than boar hog afflicted with a case of cannibal crabs.  You see how much it was up on Friday?  Well don’t believe it.  This suckers going down just like it did last time.  Here’s my take:

That’s all for now.  Play tight and play defense this week.

Good luck to the Green Bay Packers, a real “good guy” team.  I might even root for Pittsburgh, but then, I have a daughter, soooo … no.

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