Frozen Orange Juice Futures?

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gekaEzqj5g 450 300]

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Sold to you.

Pinless hand grenades?  Sold to you.

Hissing canister bombs?  Sold to you.

Marc Jacobs handbags full of poisonous asps?  Sold to you.

You get the picture.  I’ve given you my take, and yet you still insist I make purchases with you.   I speak of funnels, and threshers and even Evile Clammes, and yet you insist I join you in your cash allocating dervish.

Sir, I will not.

Here is what I think will happen.   I think we’ll probably bounce here.   We’re oversold, after all.   In fact, if we fill certain gaps I’ve got circled on my charts (don’t worry Bruce, The PPT will know first), I may even snatch a couple of shares of PM lovelies like SLW and EXK.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves.  The Bigs need to move their bowels here, and in so passing, allocate their shares to the fevered masses.   They don’t do that all in one day, or even one week.   I suspect they will take this market up one more time, confirming the “buy the dip” stone-bound rule for all who lurk in Dunkin’ Donuts seeking free shots of hot hot espresso with double whip.

Then they will enjoy fresh bacon for weeks, lightly salted, lightly peppered, before taking us all back back to the Funhouse one last time.   Wouldn’t it be great if you had some cash on hand for that last ride?

Good day, sir.

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Trust Ye Not the Evile Clamme!

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Well, wasn’t that a refreshing sell off we had today?  Will we bounce from here?   Likely, at some point.  But I wouldn’t get overly excited about it.   In fact, I’d take any rebound in the next couple of days as a welcome loosening of the steer-making device from around your sensitive bits, and lighten, lighten, lighten.   

You want to be as light as a Capezio-wearing chorus line extra dangling from a dirigible.   Because ladies and gentlemen, the Clamme  is not your friend!   The Clamme is the friend of men standing in bomb shelters poring over ruined real estate portfolios, but he is no friend of the genial Speculator. 

As good as it feels to revel in the seemingly endless supply of bubblicious liquidity flowing from the Helicopter du Clamme, you must believe that the other side of that euphoria is the long weightless drop down the elevator shaft, to which there is only one end for your portfolio.

Ker-freakin’-splat!

I love the Russell 2000 as a market indicator.   Are you going to pay attention to the Dow 30, instead?

A 10-12% sell-off will bring us back to the $72-73.00 area, where I see pretty solid support.   The 200-day EMA should rise to the $70 level here in the next couple of days, and that will offer additional support.   I don’t expect a bloodbath, yet, but why watch your portfolio shrink, or worse, get thrown in the chowder bowl when we will have larders full of opportunity in the coming weeks and months?

Patience.   It’s a most difficult virtue, but one that will pay literal dividends in the weeks ahead.

I added to all my market hedges today — SDD, SDS, and QID, to salutory effect.   I also off-loaded a small amount of MVG that I had not hedged, and sold off another quarter of my FTK holdings.  Tomorrow, I shall likely purchase some TWM and perhaps even some TZA, which I have held off on purchasing due to it’s razor-sharp canabalistic capabilities.

Best to you all, Clamme Diggers.

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That’s right, folks, I’m just going to keep steepening the metaphorical curve until this market breaks, no matter how ridiculous I eventually become.

Don’t worry, “SuperNova” is still some weeks away, and for now we will talk about silly bulls idling about in a bucolic wheat field only to be set upon by a near-silent International Harvester Combine with razor sharp blades that will quickly render them into so many two and a half inch ribeye’s ready for dry-aging.

Again, despite myself, my portfolio edged up again today, a half percent, sparks flying and hedges hedging.  And weirder still, my half and one-third positions (thus far) in QID, SDD and SDS were all off rather minimally today.  In fact, SDD was even up a tad.   None of this action is making me think my thesis is wanting, though I may be stuck waiting while we grind to the end of this current cycle.

The only hedge that drew significant blood today was the one that had no counterpart (unless you count my small core position in SLV), which was my one half position in ZSL, the silver commodity ultra-short ETF.    Everything else was offset, including my SLW sold calls, which were outpaced by the underlying stock’s gains. 

Many of you chided me today about silver having a good day, but in your heart of hearts, you saw how the price struggled, and how my two favourites, SLW and EXK struggled to retain gains.   This is not the action of a bull ready to take off, but rather one that is seeking a siesta.

Make sure you have cash on hand, and please, stay out of the cornfields, Children…

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Despite my adopted team, the Green Collar Jets, winning an improbable playoff victory over the hard-to-like Tom Brady Patriots this weekend, I am in full choler right now, due to the exigencies of hardware failure. I’m downstairs posting from the kids’ computer tonight because my trusty Sony Vaio has gone “Vaio (sic) con Dios!” on me, and seems to have left the station for that great electronic synapse farm in the Sky. I guess that last trip out to California was just too much for it.

Suggestions are welcome, as long as you do not recommend I purchase a Craapl.  I have no interest in seeking out a new career in fashion and design, thanks very much.

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I expect many of you — my more loyal readers — are already in the bunker due to my ample warnings over these last two weeks.   Many of you, however, resemble the man at the top of the page, and love The Funnel so much that you’ve fashioned special Funnel Hats to celebrate itscoming, and your imminent dive down it’s narrowing throat structure.

Well, the original man with no heart —Steve Jobs — just declared he was going on another Health Holiday, most likely so he can rendevous with the Mother Ship and pick up the next space alien technological doo-dad for Craapl, and therefore kick Bill Gates’ & Steve Ballmar’s asses with greater alacrity.  That also means the market is now free to sell off with great vim and vinegar.

Got your QID yet?  I’ve only put half of mine on, as planned.  I think tomorrow might be the day for the rest, however.

Meanwhile, back at the old gold mill, I have sold down to a comfortable level, and I continue to believe we will see a pull back in the 10-15% range off the recent highs.  That could easily bring us to $1,300 or less on the POG, and we all know silver likes to make gold’s price moves look kittenish in comparison.   As a result, I have even purchased some ZSL to warm the bed I’ve made for myself.   You should consider trimming your EXK and SLW and PAAS, for sure, and please get out completely from the AGQ, before you hurt yourselves.

What’s that rumbling you hear from my garage?  Why yes, it does happen to be my 12-cylinder dual cammy (I have no idea what the means) slung back black coupe FAZ-mobile idling in the drive.   I haven’t taken it out for a spin yet, but I will be eyeing the BKX with great interest, JPM “grande” earnings aside.    Heck I may even break out a bowl of Skiffles for my morning repast tomorrow. 

It’s been a while hasn’t it?   And yet, somehow… it just feels right.   

Remember the plan, now Funnelites.  The plan is to have cash to invest in this PM bull for the long run into dollar implosion.   That emphatically does not mean you play “long-only” for the duration.   You should have a core in store, but right now is not the time to be a hero.   Take a break, take a vacation, or better yet, move to North Carolina.   No need to make life any more stressful than it already is.

Best to you all.

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Man,  I hate days like this.  Even when I hedge my portfolio and sell down to my core holdings, I hate to see my beautiful PM’s get whacked like a homicidal Joe Pesci character in a typical Scorsese mafia flick.

But this is the world we live in when we choose to invest in the biggest bull in the last ten years.  All we can do is strap ourselves to the mast, make sure our cargo is well stowed (in hideous questionably weurthy (sic) cash), and ride out the 60-foot waves.  Right now, the beauty of beauties — SLW — is getting cranked like a Model A Ford with battery troubles.  Did you sell down to your core?  Do you have hedges in place? 

Still hurts, doesn’t it?  Well, going forth all guns and vinegar butter hurts even more.  So get hedged, now.

Today, I actually got some short ETF’s.   I purchased QID, SDD, and SDS — half positions in each.  I expect I will add more.  I also picked up several thousand shares of ZSL.   

I’m off from the West Coast… will patch back in tonight.

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I immediately went down to see what’s been keeping Danny from blogging…

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Since I was experiencing a cataclysmic Vitamin-D overproduction cycle out here in SoCal, the last sunny place left in America, I decided to come inside and see what the heck was going on with this market.  For one thing it closes at 1:00 out here, so the hippies have many hours with which to purchase pot and snugly pack their bongs before the 6 O’Clock news.  Odd, no?

Well, it turns out that despite my hedging and raising large amounts of cash, my portfolio continues to metastisize.   In fact, metaphorically, it looks like a large Engine No. 9 freight locomotive going down the slope of Mt. Pilot, with all it’s air and hand breaks on full stop.   I’m showering enough sparks off the railbed to tetch a bonfire, but I’m still moving forward.  

I don’t mind giving up some of that opportunity cost, however, because we’re trying to be responsible with our cash over here at the JakeGint Blog of Low(er) Grade Mental Disorders.  Here, we go by the semi-paranoid thesis that Mr. Market is trying to steal your wallet every second of every day.   So if that means we don’t partake in his reindeer games to the fullest extent allowed by California law, but we return home with all ten of our fingers attached and facing in the proper direction, then we’ve properly schooled you in the tenets of risk management.

Right now, reindeer games are accelerating already large wins in such Dogberts as FTK, QSURD, ENTR, and AVL.  If you have not taken profits in any of these, I would at least recommend a relatively tight stop.  As well, while the miners are beginning to stall (as predicted), other Jacksonians, like MON, ANDE, TCK and TC continue to push along oblivious to the divergences and breadth problems we’re seeing popping up all over.

And here’s my real problem… the Gold Bug Index $HUI has broken through some significant support here (the 20 and 50 day EMAs) and is now trying to rally back above those levels again.  Here’s the thing… I don’t think it can until it tests the 200 day EMA again like it did in the last major cycle down, back in July.  For those of you who are not as concerned about the PM market, a breakdown in the $HUI will usually give you 5 to 10 days to get the heck out of the rest of the market too.  

How long will I hold to this thesis you axe (sic)?   Until we clear that green line atop the circular bodies on the right in the above chart.   Only then will I say, “You have passed the test, $HUI, well done!”

More live pics of Danny to come…. best to you all.

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