Jimmy Page, eat your heart out!
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You may be familiar with my call that gold and silver are overbought and should be pulling back here. Well, I still stand by that call, and as proof, today I sold approximately 25 to 40% of my EXK, BAA, AGQ, CDE, respectively .
Note I touched not any of my ANV or SLW, or IAG or RGLD, EGO or PAAS or any of my “core group.” The reason is the Stairway to Heaven I’ve seen appearing in the charts, particularly the silver commodity’s chart. First the weekly:
Yes, that’s our eighth week of “steady Eddy” up move we’re witnessing there. And yet, look at how boringly stair step it seems… almost as if it is some kind of controlled move.
It looks almost as boring — and maybe alarming — on the daily charts. Behold:
Not a whole heckuva a lot of pullback in that stairway, eh? That’s what’s kind of freaking me out from two angles. First, this is not a “parabolic move” but rather a slow stair-step. It’s highly unusual for such a volatile metal. And before you start getting crazy about silver’s tiny market (true), the recent gold commodity charts look exactly like this as well.
It’s almost like someone gave a signal in August that it was time to swap shit dollars — ever so quietly and surreptitiously, like a cafeteria thief replacing roast turkey slices with wedges of liverwurst on all the whole grain wheat sandwich bread — for beautiful ingots of silver and gold.
This action gives me pause, even though I took some mighty profits today in the more volatile PM’s (I also sold half my shitty BBT position, and trimmed or got rid of some outliers like JAH, KFN and a little VECO).
This could be traders slowly covering short positions, I guess, in which case, we should ready for a strong pullback, as I’ve noted. However, this could also be the precursor, the yeast in the bread dough, so to speak, of the parabolic move that I do expect later on this year or in the Spring.
So we will wait and see, with bated breath, whether Christmas comes early this year… or right… on…. time!
Best to you all.
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This is a hard one to figure. I’m 1/2 position in SLW and sold my ANV for now with full positions in IAG, GLD, PAAS SSRI and EXK.
However, I watching the $ carefully and will cut my EXK at the first sign of weakness. I’m at about 20% of the port right now instead of the 30% I had awhile back, but would like to load in up to 50% whenever we get the run into Christmas or whenever.
Thanks again for all of your sage advice!
Very helpful (as always).
Thanks, both.
FYI — dollar is now down at $76.50, which is where I figured was for sure a bounce point. Watch tomorrow carefully, you may want to dump some on the open if we get a rebound off this level.
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Looks like my guitar students have been practicing.
Nice vid, JG … danke … oh yeah, and nice job on the PM’s.
toss those charts, gold silver ratio is heading to 52 soon
joey bag-o-shiny coins will begin entering the market
Joey-Bag-o-Pre-’64-Quartahs?
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Very likely that you are correct but one must be aware of what happened in 1980….
Yes, but that was much more of a parabolic move. This one is more measured, and incremental. It’s sneaky, if you will.
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Sold my EXK minutes ago for an egregious 52% ROI … Will reload soon enough.
Only PM’s at this point are FRG & MVG which I won’t part with given my original basis is so cheap … Waiting on ANV, IAG, EGO, PAAS & IMPUY to trade lower for repurchase.
Watch the nationalization risk on that last low vol bugbear. I’d rather PAL or SWC than that one. PAL’s up about 50% since the beginning of September… yipes!
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True and SWC just recently doubled (?) their footprint with an acquisition … I’ll ponder that.
Looks like I nailed the top in EXK … so far anyway.
AGQ has gone bizonko as of the last month or two. I know you had it in at least the high 30’s. Hopefully lower. Well done.
I sold some more today… at $104. This is just crazee.
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It will never go down again! Woe is me for selling half in the $70’s!!
I sold some in the 70’s too… this is a double ETF… it’s not supposed to TREND straight up like this!
Egregious. Reminds me of the days of Skiffles.
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Jake … RBCN (on my watchlist) looks tasty here (wave count) but I hate catching falling knives … the bottom in by your tealeaves?
I’d wait for a white candle. It’s oversold, but the rest of the market is decidedly NOT.
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Thnx
Got out of EXK and raised my stops on everything else. But EXK is still moving up. Oh well, I don’t guess anyone can nail the exact top.
I really would advise against getting totally out of anything. It’s a bull market, after all, and it will try to shake you. Trying to time the exact entries after getting wholly out could be painful.
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Right.. I moved my stops to 1.5 ATR, which I’m thinking is wide enough. But I guess you’re saying that maybe it was a mistake to get totally out of EXK?
Oui.
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Hawaii,
I did the same thing with SLW. I thought about keeping some, but my position size was pretty small so I decided to take the gain as I rolled into EXK. Live and learn. Helps to have Jake’s willingness to pass his knowledge to the pikers of the world.
Duck,
Yeah! I keep learning from Jake and sometimes it takes awhile but I’m getting less and less trigger happy with time. When I first started this, I had trouble staying in anything for more than a day or so. Every time a PM would dive I’d sell.
As far as EXK goes, I’ll probably jump back in, albeit with a smaller position very soon.