[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1egvmGzhmhg 450 300]

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I’m sitting here in my bunker having given up all hope for the country. Pass the cheeba. Pass the wine. Pass the Ritz crackers. We’ll be here a while, so relax a bit.

I must admit I’m amazed at the resiliency of humanity.  I’m amazed at the tendency for things to right themselves through natural and perhaps quasi-divine processes.  I guess, like physics, economics have laws that cannot be contravened, though perhaps they can be more easily bent for a period.  We can rest assured, however, that like gravity’s effect on a rubber ball bounced off the tarmac, we are assured of a rebound by nature.

One true economic law is you will get what you incentivize, if you will forgive me that vulgar neologism.  When this country was formed it was a haven for the oppressed and those seeking a new start, true.  But it was also an immediate draw for those whose nature tended towards the burlesque, the hustle, and even the long con.  The rule of law was late to the game and sometimes absent, so those who survived even in the great cities of the 18th and 19th centuries did so on wit, courage and often times some manner of guile.  That formative chemistry served us well for almost 150 years and provided us not only with the capital, but the innovative drive to subdue the wilderness and become traders on a scale never before seen in history.  Our frontier justice and hustler’s creed, in a sense, turned a soup of opportunity into a civilization whose standard of living surpassed those of the wealthiest Romans and Turks at the apex of Empire.  All of that success a result of incentivized behavior.

After less than 150 years, we turned to the Age of Statism.   It is no modern age, of course but rather one visited and revisited by mankind numerous times over the course of his recorded history, and now so again in America.  The draw of Statism reflects man’s nature — his desire to consolidate power and impose his will upon the many.  Dressed as chivalry and noblesse oblige prior to the Enlightenment, this will to control comes dressed in similar patronizing robes today — first for your children and later ensuring your eternal childhood.

 

The statist door, cracked by Wilson, thrown open by FDR and later Johnson and Nixon, is now blown off it’s hinges by Obama and his club of cronies.  The Constitution, once the citzenry’s protection against such thuggery, now lies in tatters, largely ignored if not openly mocked.  Where our originating culture had once incented hard work and innovation, our new state insinuated the easy out of the dole and the forgiving excuse of eternal victim-hood.  Corruption became not some invasive element to be combatted, but a necessary institutional tool as it has been for centuries in lesser governments the world over.

What lies ahead for us, amidst the foundering bread and circuses, as the microcosms of statist corruption– the Detroits, Chicagos,  and San Bernadinos — silently implode under the weight of their diseconomic burdens?

Are these municipalities harbingers of a greater collective future?

Will the country split?

Or will we reform under a renewed interest in localized solutions and community building?

I can only hope for the latter as  I prepare to cope with an increasingly sclerotic and burdensome, top-down authoritarian system that will be punctuated by misery, increasing poverty and failing infrastructure.  Compound interest can be a terrible thing when arrayed against your interests.  And that interest is coming due, one way or another my friends.

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Ben said he wasn’t going to allay his QE moves today.  “Surprise Suprise!” as Gomer Pyle was wont to say.   Apparently, Ben is prepared to go out with a bang.  Let’s hope it’s smaller than the Big Bang, eh? Concentrate on the high quality stuff for now.  I was buying more AEM, RGLD and SLW today.  Everything else will be increasingly risky, so you may want to just stick with the ETF’s.  If you buy NUGT, make sure you have a call selling plan firmly in place.  Same goes for AGQ.  Best to you all.

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Keep #6 and his family in your thoughts and prayers tonight as he battles the Great Sandy Storm Surge of 2012 from the burgeoning tides of the West Village.  He’s currently okay, although I think the water made it up to the ground floor of his place near the newly enlarged Hudson River.

And all the rest of my boys up there in the Northeast, including Monsieur le Docteur du Fly, take care of yourselves up there and don’t do anything crazy like trying to drive out of a flooded area.  And beware of downed power lines in puddles.  Bad combo.

The good news is that the market will likely open with a fresh wave of Bernanke Bucks sluicing its clogged bowels.  Silver is my trade here, and I will likely be adding on Wednesday.

Best to you all, especially all of you dealing with this Sandy Hurricanoe.

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I guess my jaw is just going to drop every day right into November 6th  of this year.  Yesterday, I stood agog as the U.S. National  Media did not merely let slip their masques of “Objectivity” but tore them off completely in defense of their Dear Leader, The Obama.  It was like we were back in the days of “Soviet Union,” when Pravda and Tass would not only mouth whatever “truths” the Soviet leadership would set them to, but also pro-actively attack dissidents of the regime in order to discredit them. 

When our embassies in Egypt and Libya were attacked “coincidentally” on 9/11, and our Executive Branch Administration decided to respond with an apology instead of condemnation, I guess I wasn’t completely shocked when the MSM house organs (NY Times, Boston Globe, LA Times) buried the story well into their papers to clear room for important Romney/Ryan high school reportage.  What was a shock, however, was watching the press go after Mitt Romney for — very appropriately, IMHO — condemning the wrong-headedness not only of the rioting Islamacists, but of the Obama Administration that was feeling their pain.  Incredulously, I watched as the biggest media firms  in the country went after Romney in a (now confirmed) coordinated attack like he was the guy who murdered our ambassador in Libya instead of being the only Presidential candidate to take time out of his day to remark upon it.

No, what was important to the press was that Romney was condemning the Obama Administration, and everyone knows that the Main Stream Media’s number one job is to advocate for the Democrat President, right?

Right?

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Meanwhile, on day four of “Jaw Dropper Week,” we hear from yet another  uncompensated (well, sorta) member of the Committee Re-elect the President Again (CREEPA) — Mr. Ben Bernanke.   Not two weeks after Mitt Romney all but said that Fed Chair Bernanke was likely selling pencils come this January, the Bearded Bandit decided to show just how far he’d go to keep his job.

In a scene that seemed cut from the classic Mike Judge movie, Idiocracy, Mr. Chairman has decided to cut loose with your sovereign currency in such a way that soon we will be purchasing extra-wide checks to accomodate the extra zeroes we’ll have to write.  And he’s not doing it in any kind of secretive “QE4” way, either.  No, he’s just going to purchase — with fake money! — US mortgage bonds, at $85 billion a month til the end of the year, and then $40 bn a month, apparently until morale improves!

It’s fucking mind-boggling, if you’ll excuse my French.  Just stutteringly mad.

We are spitting in the face of people who hold our dollars world wide.  We are saying, “See this? This hundred dollar bill?  I wipe my arse with it!  Have some!” 

“Oh, yeah… and vote Barry so I can keep my job, eh?  Thanks much.”

Anyone got a line on a wheel barrow factory I can invest in?

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As might be expected, gold (+2.11) and silver (+4.33) are screaming.  More analysis of the traditionals tonight, but the ETFs are your best bet at the moment (GDX, GDXJ, SIL, GLD, SLV, even AGQ and NUGT).  Go nuts, mind as well.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2aO9tA5DWJM 450 300]

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The above is satire, of course, but let’s not laugh too hard at the funny kiddies.  In certain European states, the “path to success” is through the government bureaucracies.  Is the U.S. approaching that level?  Food for thought.

If you have not already, you should be trimming your silver and gold positions, or at least the leveraged ones.  We’ve had nice move here, so let’s not get too greedy.  I’m out of AGQ, NUGT and ERX as of this morning.  I’ve also trimmed between 35-50% of the remainder of my largest positions.

Have a great Friday.

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Bonus Crony!  This goes out to the speech stomping Jim H, (D- Croneyville).

Tribute to Mr. Mays….

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVrCKk45cZQ 450 300]

 

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You guys know me by now, I hope.  Therefore, you are well aware that I am about as conservative a person as you are going to meet, this side of the ossified gentlemen mouldering away in the leather chairs of the University Club, NYC.  And with some quirkly exceptions, I’d say that conservatism marries both economic and social philosophies. I am pro-life for instance (both ways).

Despite all that, and despite my pro-life advocacy, I must join the growing multitudes calling for the resignation of this confused individual, Todd Akin. Truth be told, I was not really following this Missouri race until the bizarre controversy stemming from this man’s odd analysis of rape (“legitimate” or otherwise!) and pregnancy bubbled up this past Monday evening. You can read more about it in the attached article.

What I do know about Missouri is that Clair McCaskill was/is not well loved, as I’ve friends in various parts of Missouri, including St. Louis and some of the more rural areas. As far as the recent well contested primary (11 bidders!), however, I knew nothing.

I’ve since learned that Akin rose above the horde to win narrowly in the primaries, with the help of statist religous Huckster Mike Huckabee. There are few “Republicans” I loathe more than Huckster, who mingles self-righteous smarm with typical statist RINO “do gooding,” courtesy of the taxpayer’s dime. The fact that Akin is associated with Huckster immediately puts him in the negative column for me, no matter what his dopey views on pregnancy via rape. Moreover, his views, whether misstated or not, do nothing but cast a very serious position off the moral high ground. For that alone he should be interred in the “foot in mouth” Hall of Fame, and summarily dumped. Missouri deserves better than McCaskill for sure, but they do not deserve this dope.
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On the matter of Peter Thiel, the FaceBook Sour Grapes and the Cramer Clown Show… I will say merely this:

Peter Thiel took considerable risk by pledging a substantial amount of his (then) small VC fund to the then little-known idea of “the Facebook,” which was at the time being dwarfed by MySpace and other rivals. He waited some five years to get liquid on that investment, which for a VC is typical-to-lengthy. Almost 100% of VC’s have a business model that states “sell at the IPO” as a matter of fiduciuary duty (they are not in the stock asset managment business but the new venture business). That Thiel did what he told his investors he would do when he raised his funds, thereby fulfilling his duty to them is quotidian. That Facebook was valued at a very high multiple of current (and future!) earnings was a combination of cultural knowledge and market hype. There is no arguing these facts, this side of logic and sanguinity.

There has been some talk that perhaps Thiel should give up his board seat as he has released his investors from their Facebook venture investment (they are of course free to buy the company on the open market, but that’s not venture investing). I might agree with this, given Thiel’s only remaining investment is his own, at 5.6 million shares (oh, you missed that piece in all the invective, did you?). That said, he was an original investor in the company, so the board may value his perspective and advice at this point. Whatever the end, however, it is certainly a board decision as to whether Thiel remains or not. Thus far, he has conducted himself rationally and like a gentleman, all noxious statements by Daytrade Cramer aside.
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This temporary pullback in the miners is a mere bag of shells. I am carrying on with my trades as described.

Good day, sirs.
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Avast Mateys! It’s time to strike the main sail and deploy the twin outboard Mercuries, as Her Majesty’s Treasure Frigate, The H.M.S. Dollar-Dollar Bill, is taking on water and listing amidships!  Now is out time to pounce, Jag-you-are (sic) – style.

As I type, the dollar has broken below the crucial $82.00 “line o’ death” it’s been flirting with this last month, and fighting against even as all the stochastics began to show divergences marking an imminent change.  I think that change is here, and provided we finish the day below $82.00 (we are at $81.94 right now), I think we should be clear to fly until at least $80.70, which is the long term 50% fibonacci.  I do believe we should bounce then, just in time for a little September flattening while the dollar gets ready for a test of the 38.2% fib line down  below $79.00.   That should coincide with some nice seasonality for the precious, which always seems to be great offerings for the Turkey Gods, come November.

As I mentioned yesterday, I pushed the risk pedal with some AGQ, as silver was moving first.  However, I think today is gold’s catch up day, so if you want to add to your NUGT for a brief period, I wouldn’t gainsay that additional leverage.  As always, I recommend small and cautious with these instruments.  If you are seeking less “muss & fuss,” GDXJ is probably our most oversold ETF, as it got cranked the hardest in the recent “junior miner recession” this Spring.  It’s relatively overbought in the near term, but nonetheless a good bet to test it’s 200-day EMA here ($23.40) before pulling back.

A more speculative play is AUQ, which got trounced recently on bad numbers, but appears to be forming an island bottom on the daily chart, and has almost a full dollar gap to fill north of here.  Of course, the landscape is littered with these plays, and some of far higher quality.   Keep an eye on the 200-day EMA of gold bull index $HUI for a near-term guide.  It’s next resistance (top right of a daily cup) coincides with that 200-day mark, at about $465, and that should provide the near term stand by.

Happy near-term buccaneering to you all, me mateys!

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