The Techno Classic
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It’s late and I just got home. Burning the candle on both ends is probably not the best idea for your trusty Jacksonian surveyor, but I think we are coming into a critical period that may require some re-enforcement for loyal plebs seeking to make sense of this dollar killing precious metal market. Therefore I post…
Silver is beginning to make great stirrings in the market and in the loins of pit traders across the globe. Interestingly, the metal is still lagging some of it’s more accurate pre-indicators, specifically, it’s publicly traded miners. Among the finest is that of SLW, whose weekly chart reveals that it has broken to new highs:
It appears SLW is just now breaking out to new highs in the weekly, and may have some runway left, stochastically speaking, even as it approaches oversold conditions.
The underlying metal, however, illustrated here in the guise of the widely held ETF, SLV, seems to have much more potential momentum in front of it. Look at this weekly:
In short, I would not be short silver or the miners here, and I would be looking at those resistance lines as a key to my adding regimen. If the above lines are broken, then I believe the remainder of the silver miners will begin to show the same kind of new high action we are seeing in the high quality SLW right now.
Again, to reiterate, I am talking about PAAS, EXK, MVG, SSRI and even CDE and HL here. Watch these in conjunction with the chart above and with Papa SLW, who will continue to lead the way.
My best to you and your mithril mail shirt assembly’ing.
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This blog is not colourful enough for me. Do another.
I do not like the coloured charts… the background is too… dingy.
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I have the ring, mr frodo.
Oh, geez, good!
Cause I was kind of wondering….
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The charts are very pleasant to cataract riddled eyes.
Fly must be California Dreamin’.
Silver always runs farther (and falls farther) than one thinks is possible.
Waiting for the small cap and especially the the South American miners to start running like a bat out of a cave.
Here come the Hunt Brothers.
From your mouth to G-d’s ears, my son.
(Jackie Mason voice)
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Awwww… who’d a THUNK it? GDP down but “better than expected?”
These folks are mighty clever, no?
PS — that clacking sound you are hearing? It’s not the late August cicadas.
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If one wanted to buy a shitload of physical silver but didn’t want anyone to know if and how much silver he has-no trai, how would one go about it?
TIA
I’m not expert in “no trail” whatever that means, but it’s not like you have to register the stuff like a security. I would start with your local PM dealer/numismatic shoppe.
A lot of the old timers buy bags of pre-1964 US coins for their high silver content. These are very fungible as well. For my part, I like no-nonsense 100 oz. bars from the local guys.
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Any purchase of physical valuing more than $10,000 dollars has to be claimed. Anything less can be ignored. So maybe just acquire it slowly and cheap?
Easier to acquire silver that way than gold…
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Indeed, but he was asking about silver.
I’ve dealt with Tulving, they are usually the most competitive on price. That being said, if you buy something exotic from them, don’t expect them to buy it back at some future time.
Notably, Tulving is sold out of several common silver products. When that happened with gold, it marked a short-term top (Dec 2009).
do you have a sense of the current demand profile for silver?
do you know if producers are hedging at current prices or have plans to do so?
From what I’m reading, producers are not hedging their production.
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Thank you all for your help. I like Gint’s 100 oz bars approach but anyone will know where the money went with a simple bank account inspection.
Mr. Cane’s slow approach might be what I might decide to do. This will take a long time but I might have to do gold and platinum as well.
No, I do not have any knowledge where silver prices are heading; in fact I think it might be a little pricey given the current deflationary spiral. I am thinking very long term, to have some insurance for my kids in case this paper money, at some point, actually becomes toilet paper. I also think that silver will do far better than gold when the shit hits the fan. I do believe that in less than 5 years, the purchasing power of Euro and the $ will be between 1/10 to 1/2(if we are lucky) of what it is today.
Be forewarned that your ability to sell your gold/silver without paying taxes may be impaired by any future tax regulations.
I would be willing to bet that as the gold bull wears on, the government will make sure that ALL gold/silver transactions are reported, be it through a coin shop or dealer or whatever, so you will have a hard time selling your holdings without incurring the wrath of the IRS. You will have to find a private cash buyer who is willing to make a backroom transaction, which could be tricky if you have sizable holdings.
The government will probably take steps to prick any “gold bubble” since a rising gold price is a de facto rebuke to their policies. This will include plenty of taxes and regulations on bullion trading, though I doubt they will resort to confiscation as they did in the 30’s. They will probably resort to the simpler route, which is confiscation through taxation, i.e. a gold tax.
This is why I like PM stocks: they’re stocks, not gold. The government will be less likely to enact an explicitly “anti-stock” tax policy, though we will inevitably see rising capital gains taxes in the coming years.
Ben Davies said he wouldn’t be surprised by $2 or $3 daily moves in silver above 19.
Me neither. Doesn’t Ben Davies make ties in South Carolina?
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This is the winner ….
For the most skillful performance of a useless skill.
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lol
The VKing has many talents.
How can other countries ever hope to catch up with us with basic research R&D like that going on?
rofl at the guy @1:25 who gets so excited that he does the seated double fist pump (for not the only time, either!).
What about the chick flashing her tits around the 3:00 minute mark?
Oh wait, there’s a fuckload of dudes watching a guy play with his yo-yo. Drop the toy, he could play for the Mets.
Jake,
While I sit here and wait for SLV to break 19, I thought I’d ask your advice on my PM positioning.
Currently, my precious metal positions have grown to approximately 20% of the port, with only GLD taking a loss of 2.1% below the buy price. All other are up considerably. And I don’t mind adding more as I plan to dump GLD as soon a it breaks even
My relative positions are as follows: SLW 15%, ANV 16.5%, IAG 43%, GLD 24%.
So Jake, I want to buy more with the 24% GLD that I’ll be dumping soon and I don’t mind buying before I dump it.
So (a) do you have suggestion for the 24%, and (b) do you think I should adjust the varying percentages of SLW, ANV and IAG?
Thanks! Your input is always appreciated!!
I wouldn’t dump all that GLD out right. It’s a good levener.
I would balance out some of that excess IAG with a couple more silvers we’ve discussed. You seem okay though.
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Any idea of why PAAS sold off after hours Friday?
No word, could be a trade recording problem.
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That sell off has prompted me to consider SSRI in PAAS’s stead … what do you think?
This is what worries me about PAAS … politics! Could turn into another IVN unless the state agrees to a change in existing law or just another buying opportunity depending on one’s viewpoint:
“And I remain absolutely confident that the needed amendment to the current mining law that will allow us to proceed will be introduced before the end of this year.”
Pan American expects to complete its first scoping study on Navidad in the fourth quarter of this year, and will also have the environmental study for the project ready by year-end.
I think SSRI is a dawg.
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Really? For some reason I thought you had it in your top five … SLW, PAAS, EXK, MVG & SSRI from this prior post:
” If the above lines are broken, then I believe the remainder of the silver miners will begin to show the same kind of new high action we are seeing in the high quality SLW right now.
Again, to reiterate, I am talking about PAAS, EXK, MVG, SSRI and even CDE and HL here.”
I include SSRI in there because a rising boat, etc. But remember also that “dawg” is relative.
SSRI is a dawg because it’s a laggard, CDE and HL are “Dawgs w. fleas” because their managements suck.
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what makes them a bad management ?
Meanwhile … another take-out and an obvious one for those following FRG
> Fronteer Gold is currently the 51% owner and operator of Long Canyon, an advanced stage exploration project in Nevada. With this transaction, Fronteer Gold is acquiring the remaining 49% interest in Long Canyon as well as the rest of AuEx’s interests in Long Canyon’s regional “Pequop District”, including AuEx’s 49% interest in the West Pequop Project (51%-owned and operated by Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd.) and the South Pequop Project. <
Eventually AEM will take out FRG … just saying
Yes, but you can see why I try to eschew the acquirors over the acquired. Of course, in this case, one cannot avoid a smaller buy like this.
Still, when I see it, it makes me yell… WHAT THE FRRRRRIIIIGGGG???</b?
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