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Really, I’m spoiling you.  It’s not going to be like this all the time, so pay attention.  A lot of these little smoking grenades are launching right now, but not all of them (cf. the BRD is a word, a bad word, like PHUCK!).  Don’t be afraid to bring up suggestions in the forum, but right now, I’m only recommending what I’m recommending because I feel good about what the chart looks like in a rising miner environment.

Take PZG as an example.  I haven’t talked a whole lot about it in a while, but I like it right now.  Here’s the weekly, finally breaking out of a medium term downtrend:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now check out the daily.  See how it’s right against the breakout, much like BAA the other day?  That means your decision will be relatively easy tomorrow, right?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just wait for it to break that upper triangle line.  If it does not… well, you’ve got some more time to wait, that’s all.  You can turn your attention back to the psycho silver market which is blowing up as we speak.  AGQ, SLW, AG, EXK, MVG, heck even CDE and PAAS and SSRI are fair game at this point.   Of course, SIL will obviate any decision making, much like GDX on the gold side.

Enjoy this time, my friends.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b8B3Vqupy0U 450 300]

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I’ve watched with some amusement recently as a few here have tried to use every gauge on the submarine dial in order to judge what direction the market is going.   Don’t get me wrong… there are people out there for whom I have enormous respect, and who have studied the markets to a fair-the-well for years, decades even.   Those same people are tying themselves in knots trying to read the latest tea leaf pattern on the bottom of their bone china cup.  They make it so hard, when it need not be, especially given their backgrounds, their educations… their knowledge of just what makes the market move.

Let’s face it folks, the market moves on liquidity.  That said, there are two things affecting liquidity in our U.S. and global markets.  The first is scarcity.  Yes, scarcity.  When I was a pup, in the 90’s, it was not uncommon to see 50 to 60 Initial public Offerings PER MONTH.  Now we are lucky if we get 60 IPO’s in an entire year.   Sarbanes Oxley and Dodd Frank are doing their work, and the private capital markets are filling in the gaping hole left by the public markets’ regulatory sclerosis.  Deals are getting financed and traded entirely on the private side.  Increasingly there are more and more great companies that you will never see as a Joe Six Pack investor, unless you get real wealthy and start investing in private equity limited partnerships.   That’s too bad, but I guess the “good news” is those slimmer pickings make for a more highly bid public market, just on supply and demand criteria alone.

The second and probably more comprehensive goad to liquidity is the loose monetary policy we’ve been “enjoying” since the dot-com crash and 911, and even more so since the Financial Crises (sic) of 2008.   I don’t need to tell you that the dollar has been used and abused for the last ten years, gaining only a brief respite as a “Safety Dance” during the 2008 Meltdown.   Recently, I’ve been calling the dollar’s dolorous decline with pinpoint accuracy (if I do say so m’self).  Look at this highlight reel:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Eschewing cycles, I kept only Ben Bernanke and the political importance of 2012 in mind, and came up with this startling conclusion: this should not be a good year for the dollar.

So what should it be a good year for?  Funny you should ask, as I called for a buy on SLW last Friday at about ten cents below it’s actual low of the day.   I don’t plan to make that mistake again, at least not with MAG Silver (MVG).  A lot of my PM charts are showing nice signs here, and MVG’s budding return to society is shown best in this weekly:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now check out the daily to see where the best place to buy in the next few days will likely be:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I’m going to throw the order in at the north end of the range described above and close to that 200-day EMA.  I don’t want to get burned again by a dime like I did last Friday on SLW.  It’s accumulate time again, kids.

Best to you all.

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(This Car’s body and frame are made from Carbon)
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I know I’ve been waxing poetic about the bounties of raw commodity gold and silver plays, and gosh knows AGQ, MVG, AG, EXK and SLW all performed mightily today, as did ANV and IVN on the gold side (among many others).  However,  I would counsel you also that there’s a whole wide word out there from which to choose.   Make no mistake, the European crisis is not going to be over with the waving of a magic juju stick that makes every price legitimate and no bank under pressure for insolvency.  Call it what you might, but this bailout is simply kicking the can down the considerably strung out road by tossing more money at poor Greek monkey grinders who will only convert it to a lamp shade or a fancy brooch.

That means inflation.

That means all commodities will be in play.  Let’s have some fun, shall we?  Indulge me.   Old favorite (and Jacksonian) beat down TCK was roaring like a Bengal tiger caught in an escalator, up over 10%.   TC — the molybdenum favorite and also Jacksonian was up 7.25%, and even my favorite WNR was fully erect today, adding a cool 9.5%.

But here’s that long developing carbon play I threw at you some months back — CCC.  Remember that monthly chart?  The one that showed that neat consolidating triangle?   Well, faith and begorrah, that triangle is still intact and still consolidating (much like AUY in the recent past).   And given that there are two days left in October, we might even have the pleasure of an actual breakout of some significance here:

Two days for a paradigm shift possibility.  Is that too long to wait?   I wouldn’t.

PS — I have another favorite PM play that has a beautiful monthly chart as well.  Perhaps I’ll share tomorrow sometime if you are pleasant.

 

Best to you all.

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Sit, Midas, Stay!
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I was away on business in outer Lobos Lobovia today (somewhere in the untracked wilds of the Midwest), when I received a cell phone text from my dog, Midas (above).   She’s been trained to faithfully call me whenever I’m away from the screen and there’s a significant opportunity in the precious metals… especially the miners.   She’s to do this no matter how busy I am, and mein gott have I been busy.   Still, she has her training… so…

“Roof!” She said, “roof, urf, roof!”   Loosely translated, this meant “buy MVG,” but that’s of little consequence when you could have bought anything in the PM sector today (save maybe PAAS) and you’d have made a crop of coin.  So who says dogs are smart, right?

Anyway, MVG was up 6% including after hours today.  AAU was up 12.7% today.  Guess what wasn’t up so much today?  If you said “BAA” you get a prize.  It was flat most of the day, only to trade up a shade under 3% in after hours.   Can you guess what I’m going to be buying tomorrow, time allowing?

My dog Midas knows.

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Again, my apologies for being away from you, friends.  It’s truly been one of the busiest weeks I’ve had since I was a gruntling analyst fresh out of my white shoe training program.  And shit, it’s only Wednesday.

That news in itself should be somewhat indicative to you.  Money is moving people, on both sides of the balance sheet.

Given this pace, I may not even make it to the weekend.   So if I don’t, let me share my outlook.  I think we should be aware we could be on the cusp of a cataclysmic move in the PM’s.   The dollar has broken that support at $76, and as I type it’s at $75.89 on the index.   Gold has responded, and is above $1700 again.  I think we’re on the way back up, and am cautiously adding to my piles as time allows.

Silver’s been something of a laggard, but I may take advantage of that by adding to my AG and EXK tomorrow.  If my readings are correct, we’ve still a ways to go in those names.   I may even indulge in some AGQ.  Juniors in the gold sector should also be considered.  Grab GDXJ if you don’t want to choose.   Take care, and I will try and drop in on you tomorrow.

Best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1L12072ZZP4&feature=related 450 300]

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Geez, a guy goes road trippin’ for one day and lookee here-–  the market melts down like a fat guy at a Bette Midler Film Festival.   I’m going to be honest here… I don’t really give a cut quid about the overall market.  I’m heavily invested in the dread instruments SKF and TZA, so I’m well protected against the whims Mr. Dow and his Standard and increasingly Poor friend.

What I’m not protected against is the whims of the $HUI, gash damnit to the hezzy.

So I took some egregious blow to the head after all today, my “bad ETF’s” not withstanding, especially at the end of the day when the whole market dove for the subterranean depths.  That said, it wasn’t as bad as it could’ve been, and the $HUI remains in that channel we described yesterday.     Check it:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Note, we haven’t even broken through the 20-day EMA here, which has been recent support.  I guess I’ll just have to eat some sammitches and wait to see what kind of follow-through we get tomorrow.   My major problem, as always, is the dollar, which is breaking up back to those fib levels we talked about last time.  Look at how damn close we are again:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tomorrow will probably be do or die for both the dollar and the $HUI, so let’s try to pay some attention.    I’m going to be out again tomorrow morning, but I’ll check in and make sure the markets are behaving– and you are too.  If the coast is clear, I’d say the hot silvers are your best bet — AG and EXK and even MVG.  Otherwise, you can chill and have your girlfriend make you a sammitch.

Best to you all.

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I made good on my threats today, and took everything down to the 30% level on my personal accounts. 

I was up an average of almost 5% across a number of different portfolios and I finally said “enough is enough.”   I am keeping 30% invested, with the equal expectation that we could hit a precipitous downdraft in the precious metal sector at any time, just as we could shoot past $2,000 gold in an eye-blink.  

I care no more, as at this point risk avoidance has become very important to me.  If that means I miss the next $200 in gold on 70% of my portfolio, well so be it.   It’s very possible we could see a break past $50 in silver as well, and again, I’ll have no nonsense from any of you about it.   Really, I mean it.  Just shut up now.

And yes, that means I sold large chunks of AAU, AG, AUY, ANV, EGO, EXK, GDX, GDXJ, GG, MVG, NG, NGD, NXG, PAAS, RGLD, SIL and even beloved SLW.

And I blew out the rest of my NUGT as well.

And no, I am not abandoning the PM’s as a theme now, and won’t abandon them should they continue to skyrocket in flight to many more afternoon delights this late summer.   I am willing to wait for them, however, and to examine “other areas” whilst they frolic about like mad sturgeon on lady’s night at the Aquarium.

One of those “other areas” includes my old friend, Mr. Skiffles — SKF.  Along with his rebrobrate alchoholic brother, FAZ-tard, I believe Mr. Skiffles will be getting some nice exercise this second half of the year.  One of the reasons is the behavior of BAC, and now, most recently, the troubles of GS, and it’s Waspy rival MS.  

Another is the critical structural problems of Europe erupting again like plague boils on the carcass of its major banks.  This is a contagion that may yet again bolt across the Atlantic and may even explain the impolite selling vigor in some of our larger institutions.  Will the Fed be there to save their lying souls once again? 

Too big to fail, you say?   Maybe, but while “fail” might rhyme with “bail,” I wouldn’t be too sure equity holders won’t be left holding an empty bucket this time around.  Be warned, friends, storms approach.

Peace be upon you.

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