iBankCoin
Joined Nov 11, 2007
1,458 Blog Posts

The U.S. is Fucked

You would have to be an idiot, I mean seriously stupid, to believe that the U.S. can continue spending as we have the last decade, without collapsing our financial system through default or hyper-inflation. Every category of spending is growing at an exponential rate.

And raising taxes won’t do it either. Throughout our country’s history, raising taxes has resulted in one thing: higher spending. Does anyone truly believe that if we raised taxes that the increased revenue would be used to pay down the deficit? And just “taxing the rich” won’t do it either. To close the projected deficit in 2020 of over 1 Trillion dollars, the top tax rate would have to be 134%. I’m not aware of a way to tax more than 100% of someone’s income.

To recap: Spending is growing exponentially; tax increases have historically been used to increase spending, and taxing the rich will not close the deficit.

So we have a big problem, and the only way to solve it is to decrease spending substantially. After watching the last few weeks of debt-ceiling negotiations, I’m convinced that our politicians will NEVER be able to cut spending enough to keep our country from barreling headlong into a financial Armageddon.

The dumb-fucks in Congress are playing politics, trying to ensure their election or re-election in 2012. Let me tell you something. Let me tell you how stupid these fuckers are. You HAVE to be an idiot to want to be a politician in 2012, because 2012 is the end of the road. In 2012, you will either be responsible for massive, across-the-board spending cuts and fundamental entitlement reform, or you will be responsible for ushering in hyper-inflation, whereby things get so bad that Americans are “sawing off their own fucking legs.”  The days of over-promising and under-delivering are over. There is no other way out of this.

So why would you want to be re-elected in 2012? Why would you want your party to hold onto Congress, or the White House, when inevitably your party will be the ones left holding the bag of empty promises?

There is only one reason why these fuckers in Congress are playing politics, while Rome burns. They are more worried about their own power than the health of our country. There is no way our country can survive with “leaders” such as the buffoons we see on the daily news cycle, offering only platitudes, unwilling to stand for the truth, regardless of what it means for their political careers. The Democrats know good and well that spending has to be cut dramatically, entitlements must be reformed, and that tax increases aren’t going to fix the problem. The Republicans know that defense has to be cut, the tax code has to be reformed to eliminate breaks and loopholes for favored constituents, and that they must cut spending in areas that the Democrats will use to paint them as villainous demons. Both parties will have to alienate a large percentage of their bases in order to make the changes that must be made. They won’t because alienating the base is not a recipe for re-election. That fact that they are worried about re-election at this point shows them to be insane. (See the previous two paragraphs).

Finally, when this country collapses, I hope the American mainstream media has nothing left to eat except for their own shit,  and maybe a few copies of the fucking New York Times. Because these fucking hacks have worked hand-in-hand with the politicians, eager to be part of the social elites, eager to be celebrities, they have not been doing their jobs, which is to tell the truth in a manner in which average Americans can understand it. Hell, they haven’t been telling the truth at all.

The U.S. is fucked.

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I’m Whooped.

I’ve spent the last days of last week and all of this week putting in 12 hour days, staring at a freaking computer monitor. The tech guys tell me, “We’re getting ready for a ‘rollover’ and an ‘upgrade.'” Whatever that means. I really could care less, as that is what they do. But they tell me I can’t do what I do for most of next week due to the ‘rollover’ and the ‘upgrade.’ So I’m stuck trying to knock a bunch of shit out before they take things offline for a bit.

Anyway, so that’s my excuse. Coupled with long days and the debt ceiling mess, I’ve been whooped when I get home. I really have not cared to get back on the computer, other than to check my positions and place orders. Sleep has been a priority, and blogging has been playing second fiddle. But that won’t last forever.

We are due for a camping trip this weekend. Should be a good time to blow off some steam, in the 100 degree heat. Luckily, we will be in the ’72 Coleman Pop-up. Its too old for an A/C, but we’ll have a bunch of fans blowing.

As for the markets, I’m feeling a bounce here, although a test of the MA200 would not surprise me in the least. Market breadth is certainly signaling as bounce is imminent. See the chart below. Note how low the red line is and how high the green line is. Search my Market Breadth category for more information on these indicators.

Of course the wild card is our Congress. Who knows what they will do. I’m going to ignore everything except the technicals and add long positions tomorrow.

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2 High Tight Flags

The HTFs keep trickling in. We have two: 1 new and 1 that broke out and then pulled back.


 

 

 

AGYS is new. It could break out at any time.

 

NATR has  been on the radar for some time. It recently broke out, but the breakout failed. It should stay on the radar for another couple of weeks or so unless it keeps falling. I want to watch it for consolidation to see if it is going to make another attempt at breaking out.

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Market Down? Buy That Dip!

Some things in the market are so simple that they seem too easy. Yet over the years, the market has rewarded simple strategies. Let’s look at one of them.

Imagine this: the market is down. Is that depressing for you, or do you see it as opportunity? Many traders sit on their hands during a down market and get in the buying mood when the market is rising. In fact, the opposite approach would likely improve their performance.

Let’s look at a some simple tests that demonstrate this concept.

What I am testing is commonly referred to as Daily Mean Reversion.

The Rules:

  • Buy at Close When the Close will Be Lower than the Previous Close
  • Sell at Close When the Close will Be Higher than the Previous Close
  • No Commissions or Slippage
  • All available history used for whatever security is tested

The Results:

This equity curve shows the SPY traded using the daily mean reversion setup from above.

  • Net Profit 240.86%
  • Annual Return 6.86%
  • Winners 68.14%

Okay, this seems too easy, right? I mean it is MUCH easier to buy the market when it is going up.  Let’s change the rules to buy after an up day and sell after a down day. This is called Daily Follow Through.

The results of trading daily follow through:

This equity curve shows the results of buying after an up day and selling after a down day.

  • Net Profit -10.73%
  • Annual Return -0.61%
  • Winners 36.96%

While I’ve demonstrated this concept using SPY, it works similarly as well on QQQ and IWM.

Caveat: In real life, your trading frictions, commissions and possibly slippage, would mean this strategy would just churn and churn and would never really go anywhere. However, we can use this method to our advantage with higher beta stocks that are correlated with the indices.

For fun, if you want to throw out some symbols that you think would work well with daily mean reversion, leave them in the comments section and I’ll run the DMR tests vs. buy and hold and report the results.

Related Post: As Volatility Rises, Watch for Mean Reversion

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SPY Closes Up > 1.5%. What Happens Next?

Yesterday, SPY closed up 1.6% over Monday’s close. After a large percentage gain, what has the next day and subsequent days looked like?

The Rules:

  • Buy SPY (or $SPX) at Close if It Will Close Up > 1.5%
  • Sell at the Close X Days Later
  • No Commissions or Slippage
  • All SPY history used
  • $SPX history goes back to 1960

The Results:

Results for $SPX are above. Note that the next day gains average around .18%. These results reflect over 600 samples with trades going back to 1960, but since $SPX is not tradeable, the results should not be trusted completely.

SPY results are above. They are quite different from the results for $SPX. There were about 300 samples with trades going back to 1993.

Analysis of Results:

I have broken out the trades that closed above vs. below the 50 day moving average. Note the difference in volatility of the trades beneath the average against those that closed above the average. Bearish markets are more volatile.

  • I don’t trust the $SPX results completely as it is not tradeable. However, it does appear that over the past 50+ years, the index has tended to follow a large percentage gain with more, albeit smaller, gains.
  • SPY shows a different picture. It has tended to consolidate or trade in a range for almost two weeks after a large percentage gain. It has tended to give back some of its gains the next day.
  • More than anything else, perhaps the difference between $SPX and SPY can be explained by observing that this setup used to work well over a long history, but over more recent history has not worked as well.

Observe the equity curves below. These were generated by buying at the close on the day the setup occurred and selling at the next close.

$SPX equity curve is above.

SPY equity curve is above.

What stands out the most is how bad this setup performed in 2008. It has never really recovered from that drop. Since SPY has fewer data points to average together, the past 3 years has really weighed down the average trade. $SPX, going back more than 50 years, has more than twice the data points. Hence, the period from 2008-present has not weighed down the average to the extent that is has on SPY.

One thing is for certain: this is not a setup that one should be trading in an environment that is highly mean-reverting. Other than that, this study has not left me leaning strongly in either direction.

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