I’ve got two boys playing fall baseball (one is on two teams). I’m assistant coach for two of the three teams. That means practices 3 times a week and games on Saturday AND Sunday.
So the lack of my slicing, dicing, and modeling of the market is due entirely to this crazy schedule. I’ll get used to it soon and things will get back to normal.
But more important than my schedule: frankly speaking, the market has a high likelihood of continuing the crazy up-and-down action. There is not much more to say about it. Were I not so busy with baseball, I’m sure I could show you in many creative ways why it is likely to continue downward, but until I have some time to pamper my muse with good whiskey and a ten dollar cigar, you’ll have to deal with standard chart-chomping squiggly lines and stuff.
Look at this chart below, specifically the circled part. What a hot mess.
Look at all the gaps and the number of days with large ranges. The market is being yanked around like a rag doll.
At this rate, anything could happen. Part of me is starting to feel we are due for a big, big day. I’m not sure yet whether it will be up or down, but I believe it is coming.
I’m still bearish here, and I know I predicted a test of support near $112.50 in my last post, but Monday and Tuesday’s action has been rather bullish, or at the very least, it hasn’t been bearish. While I still believe that we are one bad news day from new lows, there does seem to be good support in this area.
Another rally to the SPY $120 area should not surprise anyone. Hell, given the volatility, nothing should be surprising. Should we rally to $120 and then fall (again), we will be set up for a nice head-and-shoulders pattern. With a pretty clean neckline around $112.50, a break of the neckline should bring all the bearshitters out of the woodswork [sic].
Early tomorrow morning I’ll be posting some short picks. Until then…