This long-term indicator signaled a closing of the open long position and the opening of a short sell, at the close. To read more about this indicator, here is the category where the posts are housed.
In a related, yet unrelated development, my computer issues appear to be solved. It was a bad AC adapter/charger. I am off and running again. Alas, I missed cranking out a great study after a monumental 400 point day. Oh well. After a short post, I will be offline and backing up the laptop. Whew…
The ROC indicator last went long at the close of October 18. That long was closed tonight for a gain of 1.95% (not including commissions or slippage). The arrows on the chart below show the September short trade and the two longs and short that were initiated in October.
Click on the chart to enlarge…
The indicator is beneath the SPY chart.
An interesting thought, or perhaps not so, but the breakdown roughly 8 bars ago (in the chart pictured above), would make almost any short-term rally improbable of not causing a sell signal. This is just me thinking aloud looking at the chart, no calculations involved. Of course, this is typical in a bear market – volatile moves up and down, and I believe you predicted as much in a post recently.
Which brings me to my point, I wonder if you could layer another indicator on top of this study to increase your Win:Loss on the Long Trades. Perhaps Golden Cross. Hopefully this has not been to much of a ramble. Good work per usual, glad you got your slide rule working again.
Cheers!
Thanks Wood,
Glad you identified the bad AC adapter/charger.
Don’t forget to pick up a spare on E-Bay…
Ok, let’s say I sell SPX short here. Where, when should I cover? Can you give exits?
Without the above information, posting an entry is not useful.
ROC, not to be rude, but all that has been covered. You might try reading the previous posts on the indicator. I’m sorry that I did not have time last night to repeat myself for the umpteenth time about how this indicator works.
ok. CongraTulations on your massive 1.9% gain since 10/19.
Congrats on your inability to read.
There are a handful of high-quality blogs that I regularly follow. I almost always feel the need to say how much I appreciate your work whenever I see comments like the one above, in the hopes that you won’t get fed up with the sort of people like the commentor above and ultimately decide to stop posting.
So please, keep sharing your research and thoughts.
Thanks Jon. They don’t get to me. Usually I just respond in gentlemanly fashion. Every once in a while I enjoy punching back. I’m glad you enjoy the blog.
Sideways movement is not necessarily a short signal but more a sell/day trade signal.
It is to far out to accurately say but I’d bet money that Wednesday will be the top of the market for the week and downward direction will happen until Friday/Monday which will jump back up.
Just because an indicator reads one direction doesn’t mean short or buy but sometimes sideways action before continuing in the same direction, or a minor head fake.
Here is the original post which spells out how the indicator works: http://ibankcoin.com/woodshedderblog/2011/08/28/simple-long-term-indicator-near-to-giving-short-signal/
I prefer this, instead…
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$BPNYA,$BPCOMPQ,$BPOEX,$BPNDX,$BPSPX,$BPINDU,$BPDISC,$BPSTAP,$BPENER,$BPFINA,$BPHEAL,$BPINFO,$BPINDY,$BPMATE,$BPTELE,$BPUTIL