Read Scott here on iBankCoin and also at http://www.createcapital.com/
Joined Jan 19, 2010
717 Blog Posts

It’s All Too Easy…

The Dow has been up in the past 31 of 43 months since the lows set in 2009. That’s 72% or a .720% batting average.

During that time, the average injection of funds into the marketplace through various Monetary Mechanisms has been over $2.5 billion per market day on average. And now the rest of the world is doing the exact same thing. Let me repeat that; The Federal Reserve has “given” markets over two and a half billion dollars each and every market day! Is this even legal? I don’t know, but I do know that my hypothesis back in 2009 that the unstated policy of government at the highest levels is to use the stock market as the primary policy tool in which to effect an economic recovery. It is no longer unstated but rather fully formed by policy makers worldwide.

Stock market participants have been trained by the monetary masters that capital must be placed at risk regardless of the economic fundamentals or the previously held laws of supply and demand as proven by commodity prices. I like to joke that demand will eventually be at zero while prices reach to infinity. I’m only half joking when I say that.

So here we are, one month before the Presidential election and the stock markets are not only testing their pre-crash highs, but just a stone’s throw away from all time highs. All time, Shadow Banking, Real Estate Bubble highs. Total market capitalization is just over $15 trillion, with Apple, Google & Amazon accounting for 6.5% of the entire market value of U.S. Equities. And Uncle Ben is promising a guaranteed $2 billion a day for perhaps eternity.

Any and every dip is and has been bought with fury and we are being inundated with the “everything is getting better (green shoots) meme”.

The expectation is that the individual investor will soon come screaming into the market to get those big gains. But, of course, they will be the last to the party. They also know that the Fourth Quarter is positive every year in modern markets as money managers put their money to work or lose it forever. But thrice bitten, permanently shy.

After Romney clobbered Obama with preparedness and passion, you can guess that the Teleprompter in Chief will be hard at work, mentally preparing to defeat his opponent. And as I’ve said, the markets are secretly rooting for the Easy Money guy, not the guy who wants to stop spending. Sure, and ex-Wall Street, Private Equity guy will be “friendly” to banks and markets but I don’t see how anyone could be more friendly than the Geithner/Bernanke/Obama team. They may be bad for the country long term, but kicking the can is working very well for markets here in the United States of America.

I must conclude that even with the divergence between fundamentals and reality wider than at any time in history, our equity markets are destined to test their all time highs in short order, though I do not believe it is sustainable in any way, shape or form. And if Romney wins, fuggetaboutit. Happy Party!

ADDENDUM: Before we can go forwad, near-term players need to be set up, yet again. A double top in the indices on a negative divergence should build up the shorts, again, just before a pre-election rally. And if we somehow get a crash before the election (one could come at any time as long as prices are “artificial”) then Romney wins.

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You Wanna Talk About Dull?

Here is the fact:

Since August 8 the SPX has risen from 1365 to 1455, 90 points, 6.6%

EIGHTY POINTS of the gain was made in just 3 trading days; 8/3 25 pts., 9/6 30 pts., 9/13 25 pts.

Almost every other days lacks any movement.


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More Twitter Ravings and Thanks to @kellyoxford

I may have lost my mind, today, Monday September 24, 2012. I’m starting to hate twitter…btw, they are in reverse chronological order…


One Minute? ONE FUCKING MINUTE? I’m having a Green Day Moment…

and my most popular re-tweet was a punch up to @kellyoxford Boy, Twitter has already degraded substantially, methinks

Glad to see written that CB’s have “Trained Pavlov’s Dogs” and reprinted on @zerohedge http://tinyurl.com/8nlw368 http://tinyurl.com/8bdxg9c

RT @ProducerMatthew: Toyota to reduce Lexus production for China due to anti-Japan demonstrations. FUCK EM. let em make THEIR OWN Lexus’s.

$GOOG approaching $250b in market value and approaching the .38 Fibonacci size of $AAPL

Just WHO is the incremental buyer of stocks from here? WHO? Can you guess?

$16 trillion in market capitalization. $16t  in Mortgages outstanding. $16t in Federal Debt. I’m beginning to sense a pattern here…

RT @JeffMacke: they balance one-another out perfectly? Nice! @CreateCapital CHEW ON THIS: Total stock mkt cap roughly = the Fed Debt.

Anyone want to RT my last tweet? or do the only worthy RT’s come from @kellyoxford ?


CHEW ON THIS: Total stock market capitalization roughly equals the Federal Debt.

Dear Uncle Ben: I WANT MY $2 BILLION A DAY! Love, The Markets

both NYSE & Naz A/D line went from net -1250 to flat. MUST GO HIGHER INTO T+3 for tomorrow


@NYTimeskrugman  how you won a Nobel or Pulitzer or whatever Prize is beyond me. You are a sniveling little man. http://tinyurl.com/9rawnfh

http://tinyurl.com/9vfg3xr I don’t know how I got this but reading it was WORTH IT. kudos! @bclund

no great damage and its 9:40

4 days till the end of the quarter

Apple gets back to even, when? 10am? 11am #YOULLBESORRY

Once QE begins, the smart money says to Ben: SOLD TO YOU…

I cannot rant about this FED shit anymore, like I used to almost every day, because now EVERYONE knows about it…

new money for the stock market now is like buying tech stocks in February 2000


The stock market is built on the shoulders of free money to banks forever. Is THAT a sustainable investment backdrop? $$


Question: how much better would a Romney President be for Financials? OBAMA has been the FINANCIAL’S BEST FRIEND, ever

what happens when “printing money forever” stops lifting the equity market? uh oh.

why is is OK to price the $SPX on a multiple based on Treasuries whose rates are being artificially lowered? @ritholtz

I’ve never been more RT’d than punching up at @kellyoxford today. much thanks


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