Right on Time

I’m on record for the past six month saying that the only way Romney wins is if “they” can get the stock market to crash two weeks before the election.

Can it be happening?

The major indices have levitated despite one blow-up after another.

Instead of a crash, how about a very quick and nasty 100 point SPX drop. Would that do it?

Nah, its probably just another Bear trap. You can’t fuck with $4 billion a day pumping in this year, $2 billion a day next year…

But fundamentals and the “uncertaintly” risk remains.

Hey, all you partisan politicos: do you want to know what has really happened to the financial system over these last three years? Can you handle it?

The Federal Reserve has increased its balance sheet several trillion dollars. It has also taken on trillions in “off balance sheet items”, just like banks. This increase in the Fed’s “AUM” has been simply a TRANSFER OF WEALTH from the public sector to the private sector. But the only beneficiary of those funds have been to BANKS and OTHER INVESTORS.

This is the fact: There has been a giant wealth transfer from the public sector to the private sector under Obama. And the corresponding increases in public debt HAS BEEN BALANCED BY STOCK MARKET GAINS.

The fact remains is that Obama is Geithners bitch. Here is the conversation between Geithner and Obama in 2009: “Do you want to be the President that presided over the second Great Depression and the first and only African American President (no racist)? Well, then you better let Ben do his thing and save the banks and the stock market or you are finished.”

Obviously this Administration has been the “BFF” to banks and the markets but nobody want to say it.

Holy shit, what a week so far.

Yesterday morning the markets took off. No explanation other than that there was a teeny, tiny correction last week. And today, Tuesday, we have another “off to the races” day. The SPX gained 20 full points in literally 2 hours. And it was the broad measure of the markets that rose, led by financials, not the stocks everyone loves.

Remember, the end of the fiscal year for many mutual & hedge funds is October 31. So there is some positioning underway.

The big news through is that Pandit and Havens, the CEO AND the CFO of Citibank have been stepped down just a day after “good” earnings. And just 2 weeks before the Presidential election. Hmmmm, he and Geithner will probably swap jobs.

The reality is that the markets have $85 billion a month to play with this year and $40 billion per month starting next year and into infinity. And financials are leading the way. You just can’t fuck with that kind of money.

So, I was talking to some high level executives at a major multinational corporation and they were asking me about a well-known business and markets speaker that recently made a presentation to them.

The speaker was very well known, having been in both business media and finance. I won’t mention his name but it rhymes with “Prima Donna”.

I tell you about this because the presentation simply pisses me off. It displays what so many who are front and center in the business and markets business lack; real knowledge and insight. Well-trodden concepts are being peddled as value-added to an important level of the investing public and it is a travesty.

The presentation was an optimistic one. I have no problem with that. What I do have a problem with is that the crux and conclusion of the presentation and the “call to action” was based on, get this, “American Innovation”. Are you kidding me?  The over-worn meme of innovation is simply bullshit as an investment concept and anyone who presupposes it will extracate and propel our economy and markets into a sound future is simply a lazy bastard.

Won’t someone please, PLEASE educate the public on the risks and reality of investing in this or any market? Will someone please explain that this is not simply another “recession”. Can’t we teach individual investors to understand what our markets have “innovated themselves” into so they have some rudimentary understanding of something more than simply buying or selling?

I blame the business media that can not or will not get to the heart of what is important. Most of the topics presented are simply bullshit and on the periphery of what is important as actual value added knowledge.

Just stop the bullshit, won’t you?

As of today, just a few weeks after Chairman Ben Bernanke proclamed that our economy “is shit” and “needs life support for a generation” and promised free money forever, our Uncle Timmay proudly states that our “Our economy is doing better than anyone could expect!”

Here is the proof! http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/11/timothy-geithner-us-economy_n_1957305.html?ncid=edlinkusaolp00000003

Aint election season grand?

The markets have been weak these past few days. That’s right, weak, even after QE-Forever has been finalized. Considering no bad news was able to move the markets lower, what gives?

Notice the weakness really began after the Presidential Debate?

As you know, the Obama/Bernanke/Geithner Ticket is the one that promises endless spending, entitlements and bank bailouts, to infinity. Romney is the guy who will supposedly “get our fiscal house in order.” Yeah, right. But that is what the market believes at this moment.

So weakness is a product of some smart money profit taking before the end of the Fiscal Year at the end of this month. Plus some hedging, if you can believe that, just in case.

And as for Apple, above $700 it needed to be re-balanced (ie. lightened up on) in big portfolios. Plus there is some issue with the Mini margins. They will suck. Bottom line is that the stock will not go quietly with a huge swath of support in the 580-620 area.

As I’ve stated in the past, the only way Romney gets elected, even now, is if the stock market cracks wide open a few weeks before the election. And the cracks are forming.