iBankCoin
Read Scott here on iBankCoin and also at http://www.createcapital.com/
Joined Jan 19, 2010
717 Blog Posts

Problems? Same As It Ever Was…

Now that this most expensive and fucked up election in history is over, the markets are now facing reality. Why now? Because the Bullshit-O-Meter is no longer being funded by a multi-billion dollar advertising campaign. The attempt at self fulfilling prophesies have been thoroughly exhausted.

All I’ll say is this about that: Most of the media is more full of shit than the politicians themselves. It’s not the Talent, but rather Editorial Directors and Executive Producers who decide what you will know and think every day. Only you’ll never know their names as they peddle their significant influence in anonymity. And don’t think that advertising dollars don’t have something to do with it. BTW–there are a few positive exceptions…

I’ve withheld my opinions on the ex-candidates and will continue to do so here. You don’t read me for my political opinions, but sometimes I tweet them @createcapital

Enough, now on to the markets:

Do you think anything is different now than it was last month or last quarter? The world’s economies will be “muddling along” for a long time to come, like maybe a generation. There is no changing that without an elimination and repudiation of most debt and that won’t happen without a massive crisis. The “chewing gum and twine” economic policies have provided a suitable illusion for those with capital and so the can-kicking continues.

We are now faced with the need for liquidity following Hurricane Sandy. I don’t think $50 billion will cover it, and it is not a “growth event” like some will tell you. It is just bad for everyone, period and I won’t get into the details as it is well covered, but the reality is far worse.

The market’s correction will continue to about SPX 1350 which will test a long-term uptrend line. Technicals are just as simple as that. But the issues of not just slowing growth, but actual shrinkage (no Costanza) remain front and center. There will be no real corporate spending, just hoarding of assets. And if SPX 1350 breaks sharply, another one hundred points will come off quickly, even with Uncle Ben at the helm.

And Apple remains front and center. From the date of Job’s death to its peak it rose $325 or 85% in less than a year. It has corrected about half of those gains in these few weeks. It will find big support in the low to mid $500 area and will begin to “settle down” shortly.

It has certainly been a wild season and people are exhausted, especially in the Tri-State area (no Dufenshmirtz). Thanksgiving and the holiday season are here but I do not expect it to be “normal” for individuals or the markets. I’m ready for a vicious fourth quarter that goes against historic market norms or seasonality.

 

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Forgive Me…

Obviously putting one’s life on hold knocks everything out of whack. Even after a week with no civility, no top hat, Caveman Style, we’ve done our best to give to charity, primarily children’s clothes.

The press does not do justice to the areas hardest hit. Interesting how Midtown Manhatten is never punished for their sins…

I have a lot to say about the election and markets but must compose my thoughts over the next few days. Please be patient with me for a more detailed accounting. I will however, be tweeting mental farts whenever I feel the need. @createcapital

Please stay tuned!

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Deaf, Dumb & Blind

Please forgive me as I remain “without top hat” (No fucking power).

All I care about are the % stats from First Energy

Hope to be back with you soon…

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OMG: THE MARKET IS NOT GOING UP !!!

So, the major indices have stopped rising. That must mean they’re going to zero, right?

Even with QE-Infinity remember, it is the end of the Fiscal Year for Funds of many types. They MUST DO SOMETHING. Selling winners and dumping losers is a legitimate strategy in order to secure the year-end bonus.

Of course, many stocks are blowing the fuck up and if you listen to the Candidates, we are either doing much better or screwing up big time. Take your pick as its the Silly Season.

Maybe I’ll eat a sandwich? Nah, too Plebeian…

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The New (Old) Way of Stock Scammery…

A client sent me an email that he received earlier in the week. It was a recommendation for a Penny Stock, TFER. The stock was up 500% that day.

In the disclaimer it stated, in very small print, that the “research” was paid for by $1.1 million over six months and an undisclosed (in that email) boatload of stock.

Since the market is owned lock, stock and barrel by the Federal Reserve and Primary Dealers combined with Hedge Fund Hotels like Apple & Google, all that is left is “The Scam”.

It seems that there are many “research firms”, “research web sites”, “research advisory services” and “research subscription sites” that promulgate this 21st Century Penny Stock Scam.

It’s the same as it ever was. If you do play that crapola, make sure yo know how to exit, stage left. If not, you will be left holding the bag.

Here is the disclaimer that makes the Scam legal…

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Two Weeks to the Day…

Economic reality has been divorced from market action since June 4, when the QE-Whatever rally began earlier than in previous years. It is also when Europe took a page from our Federal Reserve and began to print in earnest.

Anyone looking to do anything other than follow the uptrend was severely financially penalized. And in order to make money, you had “to believe” and view the world through Costanza glasses.

My thesis was/is that economic reality will eventually take hold and bury anyone stupid enough to stay in anything longer than three weeks.  So far my thesis has been only somewhat incorrect. Free money will do that to a market.

But my other supposition was/is that Obama will win the election unless “They” can crash the stock market two weeks before the election. Given how the stock market has more than doubled over Obama’s term, the market is the only Policy Tool that has “worked”.

But now, with 2 weeks to go before the election, it is being “leaked” that Bernanke will soon be finished. And in the NYT no less! This is the reason for the market’s fall. Not that Romney is winning, because he is not. Really.

Uncle Ben’s Free Money Regime has been the sole reason for the stock markets performance. Remember, earnings are actually falling while the markets have been rising. And the market’s leadership has been clearly faultering. That is an untenable fundamental and technical backdrop.

Am I a conspiracy theorist? Is my hat made of Tin foil? Many would say affirmative. But mark my words, Ben or no Ben, the policy of Free Money Forever and ZIRP will be with us for a long time to come.

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