I Can’t Get a Handle on This Market

I don’t know if we trade up or down, I think I would lean more toward the downside, but I can’t be sure.

Where I have the most conviction, is shorting P. Read this post to see why. Otherwise, here are some ways to play an up market, and one that is headed down.

Longs:

LL ILMN OHI BWLD ANF CROX HP BPOP PMT KRC 

Charts here

Shorts:

NSLP DXCM AEGR SUI PFPT APTS FR PODD ROYT MODN

Charts here

Play it smart.

 

 

RECAP: Vikings Episode 5

I was a little mad at History channel in this episode, because they gave away the story, but if you’re haven’t read the Norse Sagas you don’t know. It’s like reading the bible then watching the show, I guess.

It started out so great, with Ragnar challenging the Earl to personal combat. This got into the Earl’s head, and everyone knew it. His wife was scared, and knew what was going to happen. While her daughter had to be a slave to the old dirty man from Sweden.

In a great one-on-one battle Ragnar beat the Earl, and became Earl himself. Shortly thereafter, Ziggy kills the Swedish king. Everyone pledged allegiance to Ragnar and his family, including Rollo. But, Rollo whispers in his ear asking how they will be equal. We all know that Rollo likes Ziggy and her daughter - the widow and daughter of the late Earl. He visits her to let them know they will be okay.

There is a great celebration and one of the Earl’s slaves– who chose to be –is sacrificed to the gods. Her’s and the Earl’s bodies are sent out on a ship and burned. Ragnar denies Ziggy the right to set flame to her late husband’s pyre. There is a great celebration, then the scenes cut through winter.

Once the spring comes Ragnar heads back to England with his usual crew, more ships, and an old Viking that had asked to get the chance to die in combat when he pledged allegiance. We see that King Ælla is preparing for him, though this time Ragnar has more than one ship, and has sailed up the River Thames to the capital of North Umbria.

I was going to give you an overall prediction, but that would give away the story, so all i am going to predict is that Rollo is either married to Ziggy or her daughter.

A Word on Bachelor Parties and Cheaters (Unrelated)

I don’t even understand the concept of a bachelor party, especially in this day and age. I have 7 weddings to go to/be in between May and October. The majority of my friends who are getting married, are being cool about it. On the other hand, I got an email this morning saying that the bachelor party for one of the weddings was going to be in Italy. I frankly don’t even know why this guy invited me to the wedding, and why to the bachelor party, but I’m sure I could come up with a reason or two.

After saying how his parents bought him tickets, and paid for his hotel rooms…

“Guys, the tickets for the flights are only $1400 round trip right now, and the hotel/transportation is only $1200..”

Are you kidding me? You want me to spend almost $3000 to go to Italy and get drunk, with a bunch of people I don’t like? Firstly, If I was going to go to Italy, it would not be with this guy, and secondly, it would not be to get drunk, it would be to see the Colosseum, the Vatican, etc. Pure insanity. I don’t pull punches, so I replied:

“I’m allergic to pasta. You guys enjoy. Ciao Bella!”

Besides the fact that they make their “friends” spend a lot of money, that they– more often than not –do not have, guilt them into going, and expect them to drop what they are doing and treat them like a god, what is this idiocy for? It’s supposed to celebrate your last night of being single, yet almost all of my friends who are getting married have been living with their significant other for years. When the lady and I get married, nothing will change, except a title, and the number of rings she wears on her finger.

Then you have the single pigs, who are trying to get the groom to act like a frat boy animal, and the married guys who just want to go home.  Their behavior is egregious, why exactly do you want your friend to get so inebriated that he throws up all over himself? Don’t even get me started on the women, as a bouncer I always bachelorette duty. Possibly because everyone else thought it was so funny how disgusted I would get.

These women would act like absolutely egregious whores, trying to get the bride-to-be to put foreign objects– belonging to strange men–in her mouth, and the list goes on. If this is how you are celebrating before your marriage, then you are not fit to be married. Conversely, you should want to make it fun for people to come, not a burden driven by guilt.

Yesterday my friend texted me that his bachelor party would now be threes days– Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday –with his wedding on Friday. It’s a four hour drive, and I don’t have a week to throw away. Trying to negotiate with him, he said

“you work from home so don’t tell me you can’t just drop stuff and come up here” (he doesn’t use punctuation or caps)

To which I replied “I, in fact, cannot, so I’ll just see you at the wedding then.”

“youre a fucking asshole”

I was going to send him a pic of my balls, but he would probably enjoy it too much. I blocked his number , and right now he gets a seven day sentence, if he has good behavior.

And everyone wonders why marriage has become such a joke…

I was already becoming unhinged by this, but then my friend– that was my battle buddy and roommate forever in the Army and is now in LRSD National Guard –called me and told me that he had been given an F in a course at his MBA school in PA, because so much of the class cheated. The ring leader asked him to cheat too, but he refused– of course –and apparently there was not enough evidence to punish the ring leader alone, so everyone was failed.

He’s taking it up with the school, but at this point, he cannot advance to the next course in the series without passing this one first. I’ve never cheated, I’d much rather fail than cheat. I also value honor and integrity, which are dying principles. We are so focused on results these days, that people actually work hard trying to cheat, but don’t just want to put the hard work in to succeed the honest way. How did it come to this? Here’s the progression.

  1. Little Jon cheats on his math test in 5th grade, by looking at another student’s paper. He has to get an A so his dad will take him to the Yankees’ game.
  2. Little Jon cheats on his AP math exams in middle school, so he can get into that prestigious private high school.
  3. Little Jon cheats all the way through high school, as much as he can, at this point it is just the way he does things. What’s studying?
  4. Little Jon gets into that college his dad wanted him to, and gets a brand new M3 as a graduation gift. He goes off to college, founds a club,– by using unethical procedures –gets the internship he always wanted, and is offered a permanent position.
  5. Little Jon finds actually having to work not suited to his liking, so he decides to get his MBA, on his company’s dime. Back in school, he convinces others to cheat, causing a veteran paratrooper with a Bronze Star with V, who is Ranger qualified, a jump master (Senior Parachutist wings), graduated at the top of his class at Pathfinder and Sniper, and is one of the nicest, most loyal people I have ever met, to fail, and be held back a semester.
  6. Little Jon, back at work, shares insider info back and forth with the contacts he made at school. He is promoted past his peers, who are trying to go the good ol’ hard work route.
  7. Little Jon takes his popularity and uses it to propel him into public office, gaining more and more followers, and making more and more bullshit promises.
  8. Little Jon starts his own fund, with plenty of people ready to throw capital his way. Not actually knowing the difference between hard work and his ass, he loses most of his clients’ money, then uses the remainder to cover up the bankruptcy. When he goes before the senate to be asked what happened to the client money that was, in fact, used to pay off the bankruptcy, he lies, because that’s all he knows. He is set free, and back at it.

And everyone wonders why the market and the economy are so rigged…

 

 

Starting a Tech Company, Vol I

First off, I will not tell you what I am doing, besides the fact that I am launching a website. It is currently in “pre-alpha,” having signed my coder on for 25% ownership, “sweat equity.” He is a brilliant maniac, having been know to work for three days straight, then sleep for 24 hours. His business is named “Nothing Satisfies,” which should tell you something.

I can’t remember when and where I came up with the idea, but I think it was a combination of conversations between the Dr and the lady’s father. Generally, good ideas come from necessity, or filling a gap. I think this one fills a gap, and will make people much better traders/investors.

I’ve been arguing it back and forth for two weeks now, including ~3 hours late last night with @The_Analyst. I’m doing the same currently with  the “Lord and Commander” over email. Monday the big push starts.

Frankly, I love managing money, but raising capital sucks, especially when it’s from people you don’t want to work with. If I can build and sell this thing, then just manage my own money, I will be exceedingly happy.

 

 

The Invasion, Part 6

I don’t remember much of that ride, just that I felt horrible, but all the muscle relaxers where keeping me from losing it. The only problem with this, was that I was literally a zombie, I couldn’t really talk or do anything. When we took a security halt, waiting for the air assault, flown by my brother, that I was supposed to be on. I’m still bitter about this.

I’m not going to be selfish and say that they should have sent me even when I was so sick. This is combat. I really only remember being woken up when we hit our “tactical halt,” in the trucks, waiting for the air assault. The 502nd had cleared the city, street by street, and we relieved them in a school, that had been a weapons cache in the middle of the town.

These disgusting bastards took shits in almost every room, and wrote a note on all the blackboards in the classrooms for us. We let our CG (Commanding General) know– MG Swannack –and he let their’s know– MG Petraeus. Their 1SG, CO, PLs, and PSGs, all had to come clean it up and give us a personal apology. Don’t mess with real paratroopers, legs.

We pulled security and ran stupid presence patrols, one of which got ugly. I wasn’t there, but some Iraqi “hero” decided to try to come out and face a nine man squad– armed to the teeth –with a lowly AK47, he promptly got cut down. Apparently he had come out of nowhere– at this time everyone lined the streets when we walked past –pulled the bolt and started burst from the hip. 3rd Squad was out with one of the guns from Weapons Squad, and they cut that stupid bastard in half.

school in karbala

 

View from one of the rooftop gun positions at the school in Karbala

They took no causalities, neither did the local populace in attendance, and they allowed no collateral damage. This idiot’s rounds went right in between my first team leader “TJ,” and my boy from basic training/Airborne School, “Jeffe,” who will be telling stories at my wedding– mind you. Rounds ripped through Jeffe’s “pro mask carrier,” on his left leg, right near his femoral artery.

For their quick action under fire– these dudes did not seek any cover, they just pulled their weapons up and fired –TJ received a Bronze Star with V, and Jeffe a ARCOM with a V. I’m sure all of you are thinking, “it was just one guy,” have you ever had a person with a fully automatic assault rifle step out right next to you, in a crowd of people at dusk?

Exactly, instead of hitting the deck or running for cover, these guys stood there and engaged the target. After that, no one wanted to mess with us. We were know as “The Angels of Death,” because the “double A’s” on our patch looked like wings.

dcu

 

We recouped and ran presence patrols out of a school in the middle of the ancient city. With multiple religious shrines around us. Once things had calmed down, and the 3rd ID and 1st Marines were able to make their advances to the outskirts of Baghdad, our patrols got lighter and lighter. This was a weird time, we still deficated out in the open, even though we were in the middle of a city, with locals all around, able to watch. Sick bastards.

I don’t know why they would want to watch, but after endless days of pulling security and running presence patrols, we go the order that we would move out to the the outskirts of the city and link up with a SF (Special Forces) unit, and their FIF (Free Iraqi Forces) counterparts. We really wanted to get back in the fight, but they were putting us in the rear, with SF, in order to have us ready to meet pockets of resistance in Baghdad– and elsewhere, and make sure this religious procession went off without a hitch.

I think it’s called “Ashura,” and all the Shi’ites make a great procession to Karbala, whipping themselves and hitting themselves with chains, in order to honor the martyrdom of Husayn, and the separation of Islam. Either the holiday is the wrong one, or they just celebrated at the wrong time of year because Saddam wouldn’t let them for so long.

karbala procession

 

Procession of pilgrims to Karbala, for the first time in over twenty years.

Either way, I was sleeping in a huge barn, at a sulfur factory– seriously –watching these idiots maim themselves. Just wanting to be back in the fight. After watching this madness for awhile, SF moved out, then we got our orders, we were going to go to Lake Habbaniyah,to work in and around Fallujah, that was in the “Sunni Triangle,” –whatever that was. We were in reserve to deploy at a moments nice to face whatever horrors awaited in Baghdad.

We were bored already…

 

 

 

Friday Night Rhino Chat

A few of you, friends of mine, and friends of the site, have asked me “why didn’t Fly talk about your March Madness win?” At first I thought, “yeah, why not?” Especially since he had called me out when nominating, Maximus, asking if I would “crack under pressure, the pressure of the big stage, once [I was] relied upon to deliver quality picks on a daily basis?” I hate being questioned, but instead of crying about it, or crying about getting my votes stolen for some bullshit, I just worked harder.

That’s what he wants, that was an open challenge, “You want to be great boy? Then prove yourself to be a man among men.” That’s the deal, you don’t play on the pro-bowl team for showing up, you don’t get to jam with Clapton and King for playing a few chords well. This site, and “The Fly,” demand– and breed –greatness. So many “pros” say that you “can’t beat the market,” yet everyone on here does, year after year.

Seeking a pat on the back is for losers, I want to be the best. I don’t want a pat on the back and a “great job making your quota.” I want “HOLY SHIT! You are killing it.” But, only after I really am, someone form this site should have won March Madness. I’m glad I could represent, and only hope that I can continue to provide you with good content and solid picks.

Right now I am in “Full Rhino Short Mode,” thus, I like short: PLULUXONE

I have a few longs on my book, but I can’t really offer up any real day/swing trades long in this tape, most have a longer output, though SPFLGF, and SWHC, are on my book, and look to be good swing trades.

What the Crystal Ball is Saying About P

I am short P, and today it got pile-driven, to the tune of -7.6%. They have a good balance sheet, but that’s about it. Spotify has made them almost irrelevant, and with iRadio coming from AAPL, well, goodnight.

is like the whiny little rich kid that thinks because they have come up with one decent idea, that they should be given the keys to their dad’s company. They have said multiple times that they cannot make money by streaming music, because of the royalties to be paid to the music industry.

Why would anyone want to invest in a company that says it can’t be profitable, unless the rules are changed? They do not have the clout to change the royalty rates, but I believe AAPL does, and they also have the ability to drop P’s app from the App Store. Remember Google Maps? iRadio is far easier to implement, then map software, no one is going to get hurt if their radio station takes them to “Heavy Metal,” instead of “Metal Drums.”

is going to take a monster hit, and continue down. Then I think YHOO will buy them, but it will be too late. At the same time, Spotify, having real connections with the music industry and Silicon Valley, will “partner” with GOOG. P will be left sucking its thumb, saying “but guys, remember me?”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EDkW462K_Bw

This is Manifest Destiny, This is America

I often get caught up in all the negativity surrounding our troubled nation. All the entitlements, the unions, unemployment, pumping our currency to death, and the politicians who use their power in the wrong way– insider trading anyone?– but there is still greatness out there. I know it’s just a song, and it’s just a sport, but if you listen to the words and think about all the sacrifices that it took us to get to where we are, it becomes more than a sport or a song.

All the people who built NYC, dug the Eerie Canal, laid the railroads, fought the British, fought their brothers on opposite sides of the Mason Dixon, came west for the Gold Rush, went off to Europe and Japan to fight an enemy we never provoked, are pulling security in a dusty hole at high elevation in Afghanistan, throw themselves into burning buildings to help others, and who stay up all night trying to innovate and create, all are Americans.

This is manifest destiny, those who emigrated here were forced to adapt, and to overcome. They built businesses and families, with names like Bechtel. All the great powers of old, from Europe and elsewhere, could only watch, as those with the heart, desire, and determination, left their old countries, to come and try to make something of themselves.

Though we have grown much weaker, and a vast part of the populace are nothing but beggars, there are still those that only want to work hard and be great. All of you that do your own due diligence, staying up late to analyze charts, getting up early to listen to earnings calls, forgoing social lives in order to come up with your next great idea, you are manifest destiny.

There’s a reason why we strive for greatness, and I think this is our foundation. It’s further evident through our love of sport; the heart, the pain, and the hard work that go into competing at the highest levels, also go into being good at anything. Remember that the next time you see a young shortstop make a diving play, or a defensive tackle stop a RB on the 4 yard line.

Channel this into everything you do, listen to the Star Spangled Banner play within your mind, knowing that the flag is still– in fact –there. When’re you’re tired of looking at Bollinger bands, or looking through income statements,  remember, this is what makes us great. When the rest of the world is sitting around being gluttons, we work hard, because that is what makes us who we are.

Go Giants, and short P, haha.

 

Cutting Positions and Looking for Free Agents

With job numbers and the idiocy that is the DPRK happening, I think we trade down for the time being. That is, until the Cocaine Train makes its way back around again.

I’m cutting these:

PMT -0.35%

BEN -2.12%

MGA -0.80%

(All 3% positions)

I can’t make a decision on SPF, LGF, or SWHC, right now. They are all sitting in the red, but I think they all have the chance to rocket up at anytime.

After the selling the above, I will be sitting at 30% cash, and I just added to my LULU, P, and CCL shorts.

I’m doing some work on a few names, but nothing is really jumping out at me.

Trying to Find The XONE

I don’t know how I feel about this whole 3D printing thing, I want it to succeed, but I feel it’s like Industrial Hemp– an uphill battle. The other thing I am trying to figure out, is this stuff is made out of plastics, polymers, and metal alloys? Why not just use a cast, or a CNC machine? I think that’s the issue here, you already have companies like Dupont, that can do anything with plastics, and every “Hot Rod Shop” has a CNC machine.

I understand these require pouring materials into a mold– that presents challenges for consistency, –and cutting material away from a block of metal like Aluminum, creating waste, but what is the cost to switch? Is it the right thing to do for the environment, in that it wouldn’t require as much mining, but would it not have a negative reaction elsewhere?

Here’s what current printers use, from WikiPedia:

3d printing materials

 

Look at XONE‘s chart, it’s ridiculous, and like a frat boy that does a bunch of blow in Vegas for his friend’s 21st birthday, it gets way up to the top of the world. These longs are on a coke binge, doing shots of cheap tequila, then heading to the nearest bathroom stall for some “key bumps.”

XONEchart

 

You thought you were cool last night, PAL, but you never were. You might have the talent, PAL, but where’s the need? You have to convince the big boys that you belong to be there. All your “profits” are great, but what are you making? How are you changing the world? If you fill some small little niche that makes people’s lives/business processes better, that’s great, but that doesn’t deserve a ~16% surge in one month since your IPO. You’re a short, unless you can prove me otherwise, Friendo-PAL.

Maybe I’m wrong, but I would rather try to get in early with a tight stop, then wait for it to capitulate, and only pick up 5%. I’m short this thing, with a stop at 8% above my cost basis of $31.12– ( $33.06). I think this thing gets kicked down the proverbial stairs, all we need is a little pullback, and it’s gone. Think about when it IPO’d? Right at the end of a record hitting bull run.

I have to read some “sell-side” stuff, and see if “The DR” can help me build a model. I honestly thinks it breaks $30 soon, and wouldn’t be surprised if it tested the 50 day SMA– HOLY SHIT! I just used a technical term –down near $28.70. If it breaks that, and the overall market is pulling back, it’s going down into the $25 range.

Just my opinion.

I Can’t Get a Handle on This Market

I don’t know if we trade up or down, I think I would lean more toward the downside, but I can’t be sure.

Where I have the most conviction, is shorting P. Read this post to see why. Otherwise, here are some ways to play an up market, and one that is headed down.

Longs:

LL ILMN OHI BWLD ANF CROX HP BPOP PMT KRC 

Charts here

Shorts:

NSLP DXCM AEGR SUI PFPT APTS FR PODD ROYT MODN

Charts here

Play it smart.

 

 

RECAP: Vikings Episode 5

I was a little mad at History channel in this episode, because they gave away the story, but if you’re haven’t read the Norse Sagas you don’t know. It’s like reading the bible then watching the show, I guess.

It started out so great, with Ragnar challenging the Earl to personal combat. This got into the Earl’s head, and everyone knew it. His wife was scared, and knew what was going to happen. While her daughter had to be a slave to the old dirty man from Sweden.

In a great one-on-one battle Ragnar beat the Earl, and became Earl himself. Shortly thereafter, Ziggy kills the Swedish king. Everyone pledged allegiance to Ragnar and his family, including Rollo. But, Rollo whispers in his ear asking how they will be equal. We all know that Rollo likes Ziggy and her daughter - the widow and daughter of the late Earl. He visits her to let them know they will be okay.

There is a great celebration and one of the Earl’s slaves– who chose to be –is sacrificed to the gods. Her’s and the Earl’s bodies are sent out on a ship and burned. Ragnar denies Ziggy the right to set flame to her late husband’s pyre. There is a great celebration, then the scenes cut through winter.

Once the spring comes Ragnar heads back to England with his usual crew, more ships, and an old Viking that had asked to get the chance to die in combat when he pledged allegiance. We see that King Ælla is preparing for him, though this time Ragnar has more than one ship, and has sailed up the River Thames to the capital of North Umbria.

I was going to give you an overall prediction, but that would give away the story, so all i am going to predict is that Rollo is either married to Ziggy or her daughter.

A Word on Bachelor Parties and Cheaters (Unrelated)

I don’t even understand the concept of a bachelor party, especially in this day and age. I have 7 weddings to go to/be in between May and October. The majority of my friends who are getting married, are being cool about it. On the other hand, I got an email this morning saying that the bachelor party for one of the weddings was going to be in Italy. I frankly don’t even know why this guy invited me to the wedding, and why to the bachelor party, but I’m sure I could come up with a reason or two.

After saying how his parents bought him tickets, and paid for his hotel rooms…

“Guys, the tickets for the flights are only $1400 round trip right now, and the hotel/transportation is only $1200..”

Are you kidding me? You want me to spend almost $3000 to go to Italy and get drunk, with a bunch of people I don’t like? Firstly, If I was going to go to Italy, it would not be with this guy, and secondly, it would not be to get drunk, it would be to see the Colosseum, the Vatican, etc. Pure insanity. I don’t pull punches, so I replied:

“I’m allergic to pasta. You guys enjoy. Ciao Bella!”

Besides the fact that they make their “friends” spend a lot of money, that they– more often than not –do not have, guilt them into going, and expect them to drop what they are doing and treat them like a god, what is this idiocy for? It’s supposed to celebrate your last night of being single, yet almost all of my friends who are getting married have been living with their significant other for years. When the lady and I get married, nothing will change, except a title, and the number of rings she wears on her finger.

Then you have the single pigs, who are trying to get the groom to act like a frat boy animal, and the married guys who just want to go home.  Their behavior is egregious, why exactly do you want your friend to get so inebriated that he throws up all over himself? Don’t even get me started on the women, as a bouncer I always bachelorette duty. Possibly because everyone else thought it was so funny how disgusted I would get.

These women would act like absolutely egregious whores, trying to get the bride-to-be to put foreign objects– belonging to strange men–in her mouth, and the list goes on. If this is how you are celebrating before your marriage, then you are not fit to be married. Conversely, you should want to make it fun for people to come, not a burden driven by guilt.

Yesterday my friend texted me that his bachelor party would now be threes days– Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday –with his wedding on Friday. It’s a four hour drive, and I don’t have a week to throw away. Trying to negotiate with him, he said

“you work from home so don’t tell me you can’t just drop stuff and come up here” (he doesn’t use punctuation or caps)

To which I replied “I, in fact, cannot, so I’ll just see you at the wedding then.”

“youre a fucking asshole”

I was going to send him a pic of my balls, but he would probably enjoy it too much. I blocked his number , and right now he gets a seven day sentence, if he has good behavior.

And everyone wonders why marriage has become such a joke…

I was already becoming unhinged by this, but then my friend– that was my battle buddy and roommate forever in the Army and is now in LRSD National Guard –called me and told me that he had been given an F in a course at his MBA school in PA, because so much of the class cheated. The ring leader asked him to cheat too, but he refused– of course –and apparently there was not enough evidence to punish the ring leader alone, so everyone was failed.

He’s taking it up with the school, but at this point, he cannot advance to the next course in the series without passing this one first. I’ve never cheated, I’d much rather fail than cheat. I also value honor and integrity, which are dying principles. We are so focused on results these days, that people actually work hard trying to cheat, but don’t just want to put the hard work in to succeed the honest way. How did it come to this? Here’s the progression.

  1. Little Jon cheats on his math test in 5th grade, by looking at another student’s paper. He has to get an A so his dad will take him to the Yankees’ game.
  2. Little Jon cheats on his AP math exams in middle school, so he can get into that prestigious private high school.
  3. Little Jon cheats all the way through high school, as much as he can, at this point it is just the way he does things. What’s studying?
  4. Little Jon gets into that college his dad wanted him to, and gets a brand new M3 as a graduation gift. He goes off to college, founds a club,– by using unethical procedures –gets the internship he always wanted, and is offered a permanent position.
  5. Little Jon finds actually having to work not suited to his liking, so he decides to get his MBA, on his company’s dime. Back in school, he convinces others to cheat, causing a veteran paratrooper with a Bronze Star with V, who is Ranger qualified, a jump master (Senior Parachutist wings), graduated at the top of his class at Pathfinder and Sniper, and is one of the nicest, most loyal people I have ever met, to fail, and be held back a semester.
  6. Little Jon, back at work, shares insider info back and forth with the contacts he made at school. He is promoted past his peers, who are trying to go the good ol’ hard work route.
  7. Little Jon takes his popularity and uses it to propel him into public office, gaining more and more followers, and making more and more bullshit promises.
  8. Little Jon starts his own fund, with plenty of people ready to throw capital his way. Not actually knowing the difference between hard work and his ass, he loses most of his clients’ money, then uses the remainder to cover up the bankruptcy. When he goes before the senate to be asked what happened to the client money that was, in fact, used to pay off the bankruptcy, he lies, because that’s all he knows. He is set free, and back at it.

And everyone wonders why the market and the economy are so rigged…

 

 

Starting a Tech Company, Vol I

First off, I will not tell you what I am doing, besides the fact that I am launching a website. It is currently in “pre-alpha,” having signed my coder on for 25% ownership, “sweat equity.” He is a brilliant maniac, having been know to work for three days straight, then sleep for 24 hours. His business is named “Nothing Satisfies,” which should tell you something.

I can’t remember when and where I came up with the idea, but I think it was a combination of conversations between the Dr and the lady’s father. Generally, good ideas come from necessity, or filling a gap. I think this one fills a gap, and will make people much better traders/investors.

I’ve been arguing it back and forth for two weeks now, including ~3 hours late last night with @The_Analyst. I’m doing the same currently with  the “Lord and Commander” over email. Monday the big push starts.

Frankly, I love managing money, but raising capital sucks, especially when it’s from people you don’t want to work with. If I can build and sell this thing, then just manage my own money, I will be exceedingly happy.

 

 

The Invasion, Part 6

I don’t remember much of that ride, just that I felt horrible, but all the muscle relaxers where keeping me from losing it. The only problem with this, was that I was literally a zombie, I couldn’t really talk or do anything. When we took a security halt, waiting for the air assault, flown by my brother, that I was supposed to be on. I’m still bitter about this.

I’m not going to be selfish and say that they should have sent me even when I was so sick. This is combat. I really only remember being woken up when we hit our “tactical halt,” in the trucks, waiting for the air assault. The 502nd had cleared the city, street by street, and we relieved them in a school, that had been a weapons cache in the middle of the town.

These disgusting bastards took shits in almost every room, and wrote a note on all the blackboards in the classrooms for us. We let our CG (Commanding General) know– MG Swannack –and he let their’s know– MG Petraeus. Their 1SG, CO, PLs, and PSGs, all had to come clean it up and give us a personal apology. Don’t mess with real paratroopers, legs.

We pulled security and ran stupid presence patrols, one of which got ugly. I wasn’t there, but some Iraqi “hero” decided to try to come out and face a nine man squad– armed to the teeth –with a lowly AK47, he promptly got cut down. Apparently he had come out of nowhere– at this time everyone lined the streets when we walked past –pulled the bolt and started burst from the hip. 3rd Squad was out with one of the guns from Weapons Squad, and they cut that stupid bastard in half.

school in karbala

 

View from one of the rooftop gun positions at the school in Karbala

They took no causalities, neither did the local populace in attendance, and they allowed no collateral damage. This idiot’s rounds went right in between my first team leader “TJ,” and my boy from basic training/Airborne School, “Jeffe,” who will be telling stories at my wedding– mind you. Rounds ripped through Jeffe’s “pro mask carrier,” on his left leg, right near his femoral artery.

For their quick action under fire– these dudes did not seek any cover, they just pulled their weapons up and fired –TJ received a Bronze Star with V, and Jeffe a ARCOM with a V. I’m sure all of you are thinking, “it was just one guy,” have you ever had a person with a fully automatic assault rifle step out right next to you, in a crowd of people at dusk?

Exactly, instead of hitting the deck or running for cover, these guys stood there and engaged the target. After that, no one wanted to mess with us. We were know as “The Angels of Death,” because the “double A’s” on our patch looked like wings.

dcu

 

We recouped and ran presence patrols out of a school in the middle of the ancient city. With multiple religious shrines around us. Once things had calmed down, and the 3rd ID and 1st Marines were able to make their advances to the outskirts of Baghdad, our patrols got lighter and lighter. This was a weird time, we still deficated out in the open, even though we were in the middle of a city, with locals all around, able to watch. Sick bastards.

I don’t know why they would want to watch, but after endless days of pulling security and running presence patrols, we go the order that we would move out to the the outskirts of the city and link up with a SF (Special Forces) unit, and their FIF (Free Iraqi Forces) counterparts. We really wanted to get back in the fight, but they were putting us in the rear, with SF, in order to have us ready to meet pockets of resistance in Baghdad– and elsewhere, and make sure this religious procession went off without a hitch.

I think it’s called “Ashura,” and all the Shi’ites make a great procession to Karbala, whipping themselves and hitting themselves with chains, in order to honor the martyrdom of Husayn, and the separation of Islam. Either the holiday is the wrong one, or they just celebrated at the wrong time of year because Saddam wouldn’t let them for so long.

karbala procession

 

Procession of pilgrims to Karbala, for the first time in over twenty years.

Either way, I was sleeping in a huge barn, at a sulfur factory– seriously –watching these idiots maim themselves. Just wanting to be back in the fight. After watching this madness for awhile, SF moved out, then we got our orders, we were going to go to Lake Habbaniyah,to work in and around Fallujah, that was in the “Sunni Triangle,” –whatever that was. We were in reserve to deploy at a moments nice to face whatever horrors awaited in Baghdad.

We were bored already…

 

 

 

Friday Night Rhino Chat

A few of you, friends of mine, and friends of the site, have asked me “why didn’t Fly talk about your March Madness win?” At first I thought, “yeah, why not?” Especially since he had called me out when nominating, Maximus, asking if I would “crack under pressure, the pressure of the big stage, once [I was] relied upon to deliver quality picks on a daily basis?” I hate being questioned, but instead of crying about it, or crying about getting my votes stolen for some bullshit, I just worked harder.

That’s what he wants, that was an open challenge, “You want to be great boy? Then prove yourself to be a man among men.” That’s the deal, you don’t play on the pro-bowl team for showing up, you don’t get to jam with Clapton and King for playing a few chords well. This site, and “The Fly,” demand– and breed –greatness. So many “pros” say that you “can’t beat the market,” yet everyone on here does, year after year.

Seeking a pat on the back is for losers, I want to be the best. I don’t want a pat on the back and a “great job making your quota.” I want “HOLY SHIT! You are killing it.” But, only after I really am, someone form this site should have won March Madness. I’m glad I could represent, and only hope that I can continue to provide you with good content and solid picks.

Right now I am in “Full Rhino Short Mode,” thus, I like short: PLULUXONE

I have a few longs on my book, but I can’t really offer up any real day/swing trades long in this tape, most have a longer output, though SPFLGF, and SWHC, are on my book, and look to be good swing trades.

What the Crystal Ball is Saying About P

I am short P, and today it got pile-driven, to the tune of -7.6%. They have a good balance sheet, but that’s about it. Spotify has made them almost irrelevant, and with iRadio coming from AAPL, well, goodnight.

is like the whiny little rich kid that thinks because they have come up with one decent idea, that they should be given the keys to their dad’s company. They have said multiple times that they cannot make money by streaming music, because of the royalties to be paid to the music industry.

Why would anyone want to invest in a company that says it can’t be profitable, unless the rules are changed? They do not have the clout to change the royalty rates, but I believe AAPL does, and they also have the ability to drop P’s app from the App Store. Remember Google Maps? iRadio is far easier to implement, then map software, no one is going to get hurt if their radio station takes them to “Heavy Metal,” instead of “Metal Drums.”

is going to take a monster hit, and continue down. Then I think YHOO will buy them, but it will be too late. At the same time, Spotify, having real connections with the music industry and Silicon Valley, will “partner” with GOOG. P will be left sucking its thumb, saying “but guys, remember me?”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EDkW462K_Bw

This is Manifest Destiny, This is America

I often get caught up in all the negativity surrounding our troubled nation. All the entitlements, the unions, unemployment, pumping our currency to death, and the politicians who use their power in the wrong way– insider trading anyone?– but there is still greatness out there. I know it’s just a song, and it’s just a sport, but if you listen to the words and think about all the sacrifices that it took us to get to where we are, it becomes more than a sport or a song.

All the people who built NYC, dug the Eerie Canal, laid the railroads, fought the British, fought their brothers on opposite sides of the Mason Dixon, came west for the Gold Rush, went off to Europe and Japan to fight an enemy we never provoked, are pulling security in a dusty hole at high elevation in Afghanistan, throw themselves into burning buildings to help others, and who stay up all night trying to innovate and create, all are Americans.

This is manifest destiny, those who emigrated here were forced to adapt, and to overcome. They built businesses and families, with names like Bechtel. All the great powers of old, from Europe and elsewhere, could only watch, as those with the heart, desire, and determination, left their old countries, to come and try to make something of themselves.

Though we have grown much weaker, and a vast part of the populace are nothing but beggars, there are still those that only want to work hard and be great. All of you that do your own due diligence, staying up late to analyze charts, getting up early to listen to earnings calls, forgoing social lives in order to come up with your next great idea, you are manifest destiny.

There’s a reason why we strive for greatness, and I think this is our foundation. It’s further evident through our love of sport; the heart, the pain, and the hard work that go into competing at the highest levels, also go into being good at anything. Remember that the next time you see a young shortstop make a diving play, or a defensive tackle stop a RB on the 4 yard line.

Channel this into everything you do, listen to the Star Spangled Banner play within your mind, knowing that the flag is still– in fact –there. When’re you’re tired of looking at Bollinger bands, or looking through income statements,  remember, this is what makes us great. When the rest of the world is sitting around being gluttons, we work hard, because that is what makes us who we are.

Go Giants, and short P, haha.

 

Cutting Positions and Looking for Free Agents

With job numbers and the idiocy that is the DPRK happening, I think we trade down for the time being. That is, until the Cocaine Train makes its way back around again.

I’m cutting these:

PMT -0.35%

BEN -2.12%

MGA -0.80%

(All 3% positions)

I can’t make a decision on SPF, LGF, or SWHC, right now. They are all sitting in the red, but I think they all have the chance to rocket up at anytime.

After the selling the above, I will be sitting at 30% cash, and I just added to my LULU, P, and CCL shorts.

I’m doing some work on a few names, but nothing is really jumping out at me.

Trying to Find The XONE

I don’t know how I feel about this whole 3D printing thing, I want it to succeed, but I feel it’s like Industrial Hemp– an uphill battle. The other thing I am trying to figure out, is this stuff is made out of plastics, polymers, and metal alloys? Why not just use a cast, or a CNC machine? I think that’s the issue here, you already have companies like Dupont, that can do anything with plastics, and every “Hot Rod Shop” has a CNC machine.

I understand these require pouring materials into a mold– that presents challenges for consistency, –and cutting material away from a block of metal like Aluminum, creating waste, but what is the cost to switch? Is it the right thing to do for the environment, in that it wouldn’t require as much mining, but would it not have a negative reaction elsewhere?

Here’s what current printers use, from WikiPedia:

3d printing materials

 

Look at XONE‘s chart, it’s ridiculous, and like a frat boy that does a bunch of blow in Vegas for his friend’s 21st birthday, it gets way up to the top of the world. These longs are on a coke binge, doing shots of cheap tequila, then heading to the nearest bathroom stall for some “key bumps.”

XONEchart

 

You thought you were cool last night, PAL, but you never were. You might have the talent, PAL, but where’s the need? You have to convince the big boys that you belong to be there. All your “profits” are great, but what are you making? How are you changing the world? If you fill some small little niche that makes people’s lives/business processes better, that’s great, but that doesn’t deserve a ~16% surge in one month since your IPO. You’re a short, unless you can prove me otherwise, Friendo-PAL.

Maybe I’m wrong, but I would rather try to get in early with a tight stop, then wait for it to capitulate, and only pick up 5%. I’m short this thing, with a stop at 8% above my cost basis of $31.12– ( $33.06). I think this thing gets kicked down the proverbial stairs, all we need is a little pullback, and it’s gone. Think about when it IPO’d? Right at the end of a record hitting bull run.

I have to read some “sell-side” stuff, and see if “The DR” can help me build a model. I honestly thinks it breaks $30 soon, and wouldn’t be surprised if it tested the 50 day SMA– HOLY SHIT! I just used a technical term –down near $28.70. If it breaks that, and the overall market is pulling back, it’s going down into the $25 range.

Just my opinion.