I am currently in Hawaii on a department-sponsored until Friday, Sept. 12. In celebration of returning to Boston for the year, I am going to be a “countdown” of sorts of Boston-themed music. This is good stuff.
Not much to say. Just a good song.
#4, “Boston,” Augustana
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UnqvjD7Kxs4 450 300]
Image Courtesy: Bill Patterson
Comments »I am currently in Hawaii on a department-sponsored field trip until Friday, Sept. 12. In celebration of returning to Boston for the year, I am going to do a “countdown” of sorts of Boston-themed music. This is good stuff.
The Story: In the 1903 world series, the Boston Red Sox were down 3-1 to the Pittsburgh Pirates in what was then a best-of-9 World Series. A Red Sox fan club known as the Royal Rooters took to singing the song “Tessie” from the popular musical “The Silver Slipper” in an attempt to distract the Pirates. The Rooters, led by Michael McGreevy, even travelled to Pittsburgh for the away games. The Red Sox rattled off four straight to take the series and the song became a staple at Red Sox games for over a decade. The Rooters disbanded in 1918, the last year the Sox would win a world series, until 2004.
In 2004, a Boston-area band, the Dropkick Murphys, recorded their own version of the song. This is how they described it: “We recorded this song in June 2004 and ,after giving it to the Red Sox, told anyone that would listen that this song would guarantee a World Series victory. Obviously no one listened to us or took us seriously. We were three outs away from elimination in game 4 at the hands of the Yankees and receiving death threats from friends, family, & strangers telling us to stay away from the Red Sox and any other Boston sports team and get out of town. Luckily for us things turned around for the Red Sox and the rest is history.”
#5, “Tessie,” The Dropkick Murphys.
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jR4tTQVjHUI 450 300]
Image Courtesy: Bill Patterson
Comments »So, last night I was thinking to myself, having just completed the 12 hour drive up to Boston. Heck, what with Hanna’s 300 mph TS wind radii, we might get 45-50 mph winds in Boston and power could be out for a few days. Then I wouldn’t be able to trade stocks on Monday. Obviously an unacceptable situation. So I decided to evacuate. To Hawaii…where I still won’t be able to trade stocks, but at least it will be warm and sunny.
Indeed, this will be my last full post until next Friday. I will be in Hawaii on a department-sponsored field trip studying the volcanoes on the Big Island. I have “programmed” a series of brief posts to be posted at 6pm daily during my week away. In celebration of returning to Boston for the year, I am going to do a “countdown” of sorts of Boston-themed music, in addition to some other things. This is good stuff.
Tropical Storm Hanna
Image: Latest IR satellite of Hanna showing a storm just under hurricane strength. Note how the convection is much more co-located with the center.
Hanna has greatly improved in appearance and organization today. Yesterday, it looked very sub-tropical, with most of its convection and strong winds well north of the center. However, in the past 24 hours, there have been flareups of thunderstorms near the center, giving Hanna a more symmetric, tropical appearance. Hurricane hunters found a central pressure of 984 mb, which is typically characteristic of a category 1 hurricane. However, they found no surface hurricane force winds and the intensity remains 70 mph, 5 mph short of hurricane status. Only small flunctuations in intensity are likely up to landfall, and I give Hanna a 40% of reaching hurricane strength. WIth a system as large as Hanna, there is really no discernible difference between 70 and 75 mph.
Hanna is going to give the big cities of the east coast a wild weekend. Tropical Storm Watches extend up as far north as NYC and flood watches are in effect well inland. Both of these will likely need to be extended further north. Here is a timeline, and what to expect in the big cities.
Washington, DC
Philadelphia, Pa
New York, NY
Boston, Ma
Fortunately, Hanna will be a fast mover and skies should begin clearing from south to north beginning Sunday morning. I’m actually a little dissapointed I won’t be here for the storm. There’s nothing like relaxing in one of Widener Library’s big cushy chairs reading a quality book as mother nature tries to destroy your city.
Hurricane “The Big One” Ike
Image: Latest Visible satellite showing a sheared Ike with most of the convection to the south of the center and an indiscernible eye.
After strengthening to a 145 mph cat 4 storm yesterday, strong northerly shear has finally begun to take its toll on Ike. Winds are down to 115 mph and most of the strong convection is located on the south side. The shear will continue for another 24 hours, and Ike may weaken to a cat 2 storm for a short period.
Beyond 24 hours, the shear should lessen and upper level conditions should become quite inducive to strenthening, likely to a 135+ mph Cat 4. There is, however, one limiting factor: Hanna sat over the Bahamas for so long last week that it stirred colder water up from depth and the TCHP has fallen significantly along a 200 mph stretch of Ike’s track. This will likely slow the intensification process as it passes over this cold pool. Personally, I don’t think the NHC has taken this cold pool enough into their forecast. I expect it to take Ike an additional 24 hours to regain his former intensity due to this colder water.
Image: Right: TCHP from Aug, 28th, before TS Hanna. Left: TCHP from yesterday, after Hanna had moved north. TCHP values have significantly fallen over this area due to upwelling left by Hanna. While probably not significant to weaken the storm, the are certainly not high enough to promote strenthening.
It all comes down to the track. Computer models have begun to suggest that both Hanna and an approaching trough will not be strong enough to force Ike to take a north turn. The official forecast shows a Cat 4 Ike crossing Florida just south of Miami over the Keys next Tuesday.
Image: Computer model guidance showing a track towards Cuba/South Florida.
Image: Official NHC track showing a threat to the Florida keys, and eventually the north gulf.
This is obviously an extremely dangerous track, and instantly draws comparisons to hurricane Andrew in 1992, which until Katrina was the costliest hurricane in US history, causing $26.5B in damage.
Image: Hurricane Andrew.
Those in Florida should be closely monitoring this system. Beyond Florida, it remains to be seen how far Ike will make it into the Gulf. More likely than not, after its first landfall it will begin to recurve and hit Florida again on the Panhandle, but this remains to be seen.
That all being said, there are many variables and doubts regarding this track. FIrst, as I have mentioned several times, climatology favors it recurving east of Florida. However, it is now becoming more apparent that Ike will not take this track. Some of the computer models, such as the HGFDL and GFDL take to storm far enough south to impact the length of Cuba. This would severely weaken the storm, probably down to a cat 1 or 2.
Regardless, this will be a dangerous storm for somebody, be it Cuba, Florida, or the Carolinas. I wish I could be around to track it, as it will likely be a storm to remember. As I said a few days ago, this could very well be the worst storm of 2008.
Will Ike pull a Gustav and weaken significantly heading up to its first landfall? Probably not. Unlike along the Louisiana gulf coast, there are no colder waters along the continental shelf. In fact, storms have tended to strengthen heading up to landfalls in Florida. Hurricane Andrew above, strengthened from a cat 4 to a cat 5. The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane, the strongest storm ever to impact the US, strengthened from a TS to a 190 mph Cat 5 before making landfall. And lastly, Katrina strengthened quickly from a TS to a strong category 1 hurricane in the 6 hours before it made landfall.
WIll Ike affect the Gulf rigs? Too early to tell. RIght now, the track would take it well east of any rigs. However, the general trend has been to take the track further south and west, so in the upcoming days they may come under threat.
In preparation for leaving, I have sold some of my non-energy positions to build up a roughly 60% cash position. I am still holding all of my CHK, RIG, VLO, and UNG.
Tropical Storm Josephine
Josephine continues to chill in the central atlantic. It is days away from affecting land, and will probably recurve to sea anyways.
Note: Props to anybody recognizing the reference in the title of this post.
Image Courtesy: Bill Patterson
Comments »Without Further Ado…
Tropical Storm Hanna
Image: A very broad, disorganized TS Hanna which has the appearance of some sort of sub-tropical hybrid. Note Ike in the background beginning to run into its outflow.
Last night, I dreamt I was a coroner. In my left hand, I held a pen and was preparing to write a “Time of Death” notice for Tropical Storm Hanna (12:00 am. Cause: Wind Shear). In my right, I had a telephone and was on hold with the cops, waiting for them to issue warrants for the arrest of Gustav on suspicion of “cyclocide.”
Fortunately, the ER nurse rushed in at the last second and defibrillated the hell out of her until she woke up. Unfortunately, the whole episode messed with the poor girl’s head and now she thinks that she is a mid-latitude system rather than a tropical storm.
Indeed, late last night, Hanna looked dead. It had been sheared apart and was drifting aimlessly towards Haiti. But after 3 long days, wind shear from Gustav’s outflow has finally slacked from 30 knots to a more reasonable 15 knots and Hanna has finally started to move to the NNW and strengthen. Hanna’s winds remain 60 mph. While this storm is of no interest to those hoping for a bounce in energy, people living in the big cities of the east coast should get ready for a very wet and windy weakend. Since the storm drifted east longer than expected, model guidance has summarily followed suit and instead of a Florida/Georgia/S. Carolina landfall, a N/S Carolina landfall looks likely.
Image: Latest NHC track showing a track up the east coast.
After landfall, the storm will continue north, wrap up even more, and give the big cities from D.C. to Boston between 3-6 inches, along with tropical storm force winds. Get excited. Hanna is a very large storm with winds extending out nearly 300 miles from the center. As the storm strengthens,I would not be surprised to see its windfield contract some, but it will always be a broad system.
Image: Latest GFS model precip estimates through Sunday showing a swath of >3 inches for the major cities.
The NHC takes Hanna to an 80 mph hurricane at landfall, which I feel is somewhat ambitious given the 15 knots of shear over it and its large, disorganized state. The center of circulation is completely exposed from its convection and until they become co-located the storm will not significantly strengthen (Let’s not have any cracks like “Hanna’s naked!” Show some respect for the poor girl). In fact, the storm looks slightly subtropical, or mid-latitudinal, with most of the convection and strong winds well away from the center. Such storms are both slow to strengthen and slow to weaken once reaching the caost. I expect it to landfall with top winds somewhere between 65 and 75 mph.
Image: Visible satellite showing a faint swirl where the center is, well to the south of the strong thunderstorms.
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Hurricane Ike
Image: Latest IR satellite of Ike showing the third major hurricane of the season.
So I had finished the post and was nearly ready to send it. I had mentioned in my discussion of Ike that despite the NHC’s 5pm wind speed of 80 mph, it really looked closer to 95-100 to me and that in the 11pm update it would probably be necessary to upgrade. However, I just checked to see if they issued any sort of special update at 8pm, and I was stunned: 115mph! Ike’s windspeed jumped 35 mph in 3 hours. Impressive. Not to brag or anything but I kinda sorta called this a few days ago. I would not be suprised to see energy bounce a little bit on this news.
The has contracted somewhat during the past day but is still a classic Cape Verde storm. It is possible that Ike could reach Cat 4 status at some point in the next 24 hours before wind shear from Hanna increases and puts the kabash on any intensification. This will likely be a temporary condition and I expect Ike to re-obtain Cat 4, or even cat 5, status sometime this weekend. The NHC now shows the storm as a very dangerous Cat 4 in the Bahamas by the weekend.
I am getting a little bit concerned about the track. According to the official forecast, and a majority of the models, the storm should continue moving WNW, interact with a blocking ridge, dive SW into the Bahamas, and turn back towards the WNW late in the forecast period.
Image: Latest NHC track of Ike, showing a very dangerous Cat 4 in the Bahamas.
This is a great track for those hoping for another gulf storm and, due to the consensus, a pretty good bet. I give a track within 200 miles of the current forecast a 60% chance of occurring. Should the storm follow this guidance, the path reminds me a lot of Hurricane Andrew from 1992.
However, as I mentioned yesterday, climatology absolutely despises this track. In addition, I am somewhat concerned by Hanna’s sluggishness and strength. The longer that Hanna hangs out in the Bahamas and the stronger it gets, the better chances are that it will create a strong enough weakness in the blocking ridge to drag Ike northward. Such a solution is proposed by the GFS and UKMET models. Those wanting a Gulf storm: Tell Hanna to get a move on already.
Image: Latest computer model runs showing a wave-like path. The GFS, not shown, indicates an even more northerly path than the UKMET.
Personally, at this time, I don’t think this one is going to get into the Gulf (sorry guys). A Florida landfall, followed by a turn up the east coast seems like a reasonable bet to me. This reminds me of the track of hurricane Floyd back in 1999, which was also a potent Cape Verde Storm.
Image: Track of Hurricane Floyd. Ike might follow a similiar track.
However, there is plenty of time to watch Ike and the forecast track is subject to change.I am not buying any more energy stocks right now, until Ike’s future becomes more certain. Feel free to disagree with me. In fact, please do.
One final thing. Ike’s rapid intensification means that it is more likely to feel the ridge, which could result in a further southward dive than is currently forecast. Likewise, it would also be more likely to feel when this ridge breaks down and curve more sharply.
I will keep an eye on VLO, NOV, and CHK for possible entries. I am still holding (In order of position ssize) CHK, VLO, RIG, and UNG.
Tropical Storm Josephine
Josephine nearly became a hurricane this morning and remains a 60 mph TS, but it is beginning to feel the effects of some strong westerly sheer and decreasing SSTs. The NHC forecast knocks it all the way down to a 35 mph Tropical Depression by 120 hours, and I tend to agree with them.
One thing about this track: If Josephine does weaken, it will become a more shallow system that will be steered by the low-level westerly flow, which could delay, or even prevent, a recurvature. The stronger that it remains, the more likely it responds to weaknesses in the Atlantic ridge and recurves. If it can survive, but remain weak enough to continue westward, it might encounter more favorable conditions as it nears the Antilles. That being said, I still think the odds favor it being a fish storm, and I only give it a 25% chance of affecting land.
Elsewhere, the tropics are forecast to remain active with two waves moving off Africa that several models develop. In addition, an area of disturbed weather has developed in the Bay of Campeche, south of the GOM, that some models develop. These don’t usually move into the Gulf, but rather hit Mexico.
Black Gold On Black Tuesday
Yesterday’s selloff in Oil and Natural Gas was nightmarish, and I believe, overdone. Natural Gas supplies are 6.8% lower today than this time last year, Gustav has reduced output an unkown amount in the Gulf for at least two weeks, there is at least one more threat in the Atlantic, and OPEC is expected to cut production next week next week. Oh yeah, and demand might have fallen a little bit.
In my mind, these do not justify a nearly 20% decline in the price of natural gas and a 10% decline in oil. I’m not adding right now, but I think commodities are due for a bounce, hurricane or not.
It’s been big news that the hedge fund Ospraie, which managed $4B, folded yesterday after suffering 40% losses in 2008, 26% of which came in August. The fall of Ospraie makes me think of LTCM back in 1998, the year I first began following the stock market. LTCM managed a similar amount of capital (granted, they traded mostly bonds and leveraged it more than 25X) and their collapse and bailout marked the bottom of the 1998 downturn. Could Ospraie’s collapse, and any funds that follow suit, lead to a similar event in the energy markets? Just a thought.
Image Credit: Bill Patterson
Comments »The tropics remain busy with four storms lined up across the Atlantic. Gustav is no longer classified as a tropical system but is delivering big-time rains to Arkansas, Louisiana, and Texas. Between 11am and 5pm we had four storms simultaneously active across the Atlantic. This has occured multiple times, lastly in 1999. The record is five, set in 1971, when Edith, Fern, Ginger, and Heidi were all active.
Gustav
I was not amused by today’s tape, not one bit. Still holding. That is all.
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YLjhRtn9j4A&feature=related 450 300]
Video: My thoughts on the subject of energy right now.
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Tropical Storm Hanna
Image: Latest Infrared Satellite of Hanna showing a disorganized and sheared system.
Gustav, pissed that he couldn’t knock over a few oil rigs, poured out his wrath on Hanna instead. The 30 knots of wind shear induced by Gustav’s outflow finally had its way with Hanna last night, pushing the storm to the south and weakening it from 85 to 65 mph.
The storm drifted further south than anticipated by most of the models and has been pelting Haiti with heavy rain for the past 24 hours. This is the third storm in the past two weeks to impact Haiti, after Fay and Gustav. Pretty unfair for them. Pity there’s no NG in those waters. There remains excellent agreement among the models that Hanna will in short order turn to the northwest and increase her forward motion. This should allow the storm to brush most of Florida’s Atlantic coastline with rain and tropical storm force winds before making landfall somewhere in Georgia or Charleston. Personally, Savannah looks like a good bet.
Image: Latest computer model runs showing very good agreement on a northwest turn. However, this move has yet to materialize.
Hanna is a very broad system and even should the storm remain 100 miles offshore, strong winds will still reach the coastline. Right now, the storm continues to slide slowly to the south and until it makes the turn, this is a relatively low-confidence forecast.
While there is good agreement on the track, the intensity forecast is more in question. Hanna is still struggling under about 25 knots of shear, but this is forecast to decrease to less than 15 knots by tomorrow morning. The storm is traversing the waters of the Gulf Stream with a high oceanic heat content ripe for strengthening, even rapid strengthening. However, broad, diffuse systems such as Hanna are sluggish and often have difficulty quickly wrapping up and intensifying (Think: Shaq vs. Usain Bolt in the 100 meter dash). The GFDL, HWRF, and SHIPS all take take Hanna to a 75-85 mph Cat 1. Based on its current appearance, it has a ways to go to reach that stage. I give the storm a 20% chance of moving over Haiti and dissipating, a 50% chance of remaining a TS, and a 30% chance of re-strengthening into a hurricane.
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Tropical Storm Ike
Image: Latest Infrared Image of TS Ike showing a strong storm approaching hurricane strength.
Ike is a 65 mph tropical storm and continues to organize as it races to the west over the open waters of the central Atlantic. Since its birth, It has been fighting a battle against dry air that recent satellite images show that it is beginning to win. Convection has completely encircled the system and is protecting the core. A false “eye” feature is also visible. Ike is a classic Cape Verde-type storm: Large, fast moving, symmetrical. I still believe that this has the potential to become a very dangerous storm. I expect it to become a hurricane within 12 hours, and possibly reach Cat. 3 strength as it approaches the Bahamas.
However, there are a few things that might hinder its development. First, several models suggest that westerly shear might increase after 48 hours. Second, other models show that a strengthening ridge will be strong enough to actually induce a WSW motion that could take Ike into Haiti or Cuba which would severely disrupt it. The third issue is perhaps the most obvious, but has not been discussed by the NHC. Unless Hanna gets itself into gear soon, Ike is going to run straight into its outflow by tomorrow. Gustav’s outflow knocked 25 mph off Hanna’s winds last night, and since Hanna is both a larger, and closer storm, it could do worse.
Image: Infrared satellite image overlaid with the upper level winds. The red line represents the longitude where, assuming Hanna doesn’t make much westward progress, Ike will encounter hostile westerly shear.
There is good agreement that the track will continue west to west-northwest for the next 72 hours. However, beyond this, the models diverge. On the northern extreme, the ECMWF believes that Ike will be dragged north by Hanna and impact the Carolinas. The GFDL is on the southern extreme, predicting a WSW track into Cuba. The other models lie somewhere in between. I like the NHC’s forecast track which tracks Ike pretty much westward through 120 hours, strengthening it to a 105 mph Cat 2. Floridians should be keeping a particularly close eye on this storm.
One thing that Ike does have working against it is climatology.
Image: Other Tropical Storms passing within 300 miles of Ike during September
Based on the above chart, no storm in the month of September within 300 miles of Ike has ever made it west of 67W, much less struck land. While I don’t tend to put much stock in climatology, this is pretty significant. Ike will definitely make it well west of all of those storms, at least to 75W, but there is clearly a tendency to recurve at some point. Syoptic scale meteorology always trumps the archives, but given this one-sided climatology, those in the Carolinas should keep an eye on Ike.
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Tropical Storm Josephine
Image: Latest Infrared satellite image showing a very well organized storm, especially considering it just moved off Africa yesterday. Josephine is buffeting the Cape Verde islands with wind and rain today.
Tropical Depression #10 was born at 5am this morning and quickly upgraded to TS Josephine. Josephine is very far to the east, at just 25W. As I mentioned yesterday, such storms rarely impact land. While some of the models want to try to take the storm westward towards the Leeward Islands, I’m not really buying it unless it verifies in several more runs. Ergo, I still say that there is a 75% chance that Josephine will be a fish storm.
Josephine really is a “beautiful” storm, very symmetric, with large spiral bands. I think there is at least a 50% chance that it will reach hurricane strength at some point during its lifetime.
The other two threat areas that were showing interest yesterday have weakened and are not an immediate threat to develop. A monster wave is about to emerge off of Africa and we will need to watch this one for development.
I will be discussing the sell off in commodities tomorrow or Thursday, once damage estimates become available and I my pulse returns to appropriate levels.
Image Courtesy: Bill Patterson
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Image: Red: Named Yellow: Threat areas. From West to East: Gustav, Hanna, 90L, 97L, Ike, Proto-Josephine.
There are six areas of interest in the Atlantic, 4 of which have already/are likely to develop. which is the most I’ve seen in my life and is probably the maximum theoretically possible, speaking from an oceanic real estate perspective. Should we have Gustav, Hanna, Ike and Josephine all at once, it would tie the rather ignominious record of 4 active storms, set most recently in 1995. Also, should Josphine form by tomorrow, 2008 will only be 10 days off the record-setting pace of 2005.
The NHC’s 2pm Tropical Outlook was nearly a page long and listed, in addition to the three named systems, the three threat areas. At the conclusion, it ended with its usual “Elsewhere…Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.” I totally cracked up. There really isn’t anywhere else for stuff to develop. Navigating the Atlantic right now is akin to walking through a minefield, with really, really big mines.
Hurricane Gustav
Hurricane Gustav made landfall this morning near Cocodrie, La as a 110 mph borderline Cat 2/3 storm, in line with what I said yesterday, but apparently well below what the commodities traders were anticipating.
Image: Gustav at landfall.
Despite the storm passing over the densest concentration of rigs in the Gulf, Oil and Natural Gas futures are getting schlacked to the tune of 4-5%, especially surprising considering what is behind Gustav. Despite any moaning and groaning about this one “petering out,” the National Hurricane Center actually did a very good job with the track forecast. They had been projecting a Louisiana landfall west of New Orleans since the storm was over Jamaica, four days ago. Not bad at all. Sure, there were some issues with the intensity forecast, but better safe than sorry, I suppose. All they would have had to do was to read my posts where I’ve been espousing a “two category reduction” (from a Cat 4 to a Cat 2) for the past several days.
Gustav is now a flooding threat. It is forecast to stall and give parts of Louisiana, Arkansas, and Texas over 10 inches of rain.
Well, tomorrow is going to suck for those long oil stocks. No other way about it. Energy is getting taken to the cleaners today on the assumption that damage from Gustav will be minimal. Normally, when a trade doesn’t work, I take the loss and move on. Not this time. I consider the sell-off to be overdone, considering both the macro-scale economic situation and what else is in the tropics right now. In addition, when Katrina hit, there was a couple day lag until commodity prices rose as damage was surveyed. Thus, I plan to stand my ground and hold. But no buying the dip
Hurricane Hanna
Image: Infrared of Hurricane Hanna, a very large system that strengthened in spite of hostile conditions. Gustav is visible in the upper left and its outflow is responsible for the strong shear over Hanna.
Hanna put on an impressive burst of intensification in the last 24 hours and is now a very large 80 mph hurricane. The storm is over the Bahamian waters of the western Atlantic near the Turks and Caicos which have a TCHP that is much warmer than normal, which likely fueled its intensification. The outflow from Gustav to the west is inflicting a strong 25 knots of shear on Hanna, so it is rather impressive that the storm was able to intensify under such conditions. Conditions will remain unfavorable and I suspect that Hanna will not be able to maintain its strength for too much longer. I would not be surprised to see it weaken back to a strong TS at some point in the next 2 days. However, It appears that atmospheric conditions will become more favorable forstrengthening in the next 2 or 3 days, and Hanna should regain hurricane strength.
The storm is sliding very slowly to the SSW right now, but a turn to the NW is anticipated over the next 24 hours. The NHC and the computer model guidance takes the storm into Georgia or north Florida as a 100 mph Cat 2 storm.
Image: Latest NHC track showing a climatologically unusual landfall in Georgia.
Image: Latest GFS model showing a strong hurricane making landfall in Georgia. Note also the “L” in the Gulf. That is actually Gustav, or what’s left of it, which the GFS says will eventually drift back over water.
During its burst of intensification, the center of Hanna relocated nearly a full degree to the south. The steering currents become more westerly with decreasing latitude and I would not be surprised to see the forecast path shift further south in the next day or so. Right now, it doesn’t appear that Hanna will directly impact the oil/gas infrastructure, but a south and west adjustment to the path could take Hanna into the GOM.
Tropical Storm Ike
Image: A large, organizing TS Ike
Tropical Storm Ike developed quickly this morning out of a westward moving wave midway between Africa and the Leeward Islands and is now a 50 mph storm. It should move W to WNW over the next 4-5 days before a building ridge forces it to the west or even west-southwest. Long term models show the storm as a threat to Florida and the GOM.
Image: NHC track for TS Ike.
The NHC takes the storm to a 90 mph hurricane in 120 hours. I believe that this may be conservative. Large Cape Verde-type storms such as Ike either seem to either dissipate or blow up into monsters. Thus, I give Ike a 10% chance of dissipating, a 10% chance of remaining a TS, a 30% chance of becoming a Cat 1 or 2 hurricane, and a 50% chance of becoming a major hurricane. This is significantly above the NHC’s current outlook. Call me crazy. Of all the storms out there, I believe this one is the biggest threat to the Gulf. I would not be surprised if Ike turns out to be the worst storm of the season. Expect to hear many “I don’t like Ike” jokes in the coming days.
Threat Areas
Invest 99L , “Proto-Josephine,” moved off the coast of Africa this morning. It is well organized and already appears to be a tropical depression. Typically waves fizzle for a while after they lose the warm, unstable air of the continent before refiring once they tap the ocean. So, it will be interesting to see if the system can hold itself together. I give the storm a 60% chance of becoming Josephine in the next 36 hours. Tropical systems that develop this far east very rarely impact land, and I believe TD 10 will be no exception. I give the system an 80% chance of recurving well east of the Leeward Islands.
Invest 90L is a small area of disorganized showers located just east of the Leeward Islands. Although pressures have been falling, atmospheric conditions are unfavorable for development. The system is forecast to drift erratically for the next few days. I give it a 30% chance of developing. Once it starts to move, it will probably enter the Caribbean.
Invest 97L is a tropical/subtropical hybrid moving NNW across the open waters of the Atlantic to the east of Bermuda. It is not a threat to land and should move northward out to sea over the next few days. I give it a 25% of developing into a named system.
Lastly, here is a short preview about what I have in mind for the rest of the month. Expect daily posts with updates as conditions warrant. Posts will usually be posted sometime in the evening between 6-8 pm.
I will be on a Department-sponsored field trip to the Big Island of Hawaii to “study” the volcanoes and surrounding weather patterns from the 6th-12th (At Harvard, not only are we elitist pigs, but we don’t even have to pay for the best stuff). I am not terribly pleased with the timing, considering the active tropics, but I’m not beating myself up over it. I have written/am writing “rainy day” posts that an associate of mine will post while I am away. If I am able to reach a computer and aren’t too tired from all the surfing, I will also have live updates, should conitions warrant.
September Preview
Here is the subject matter that I hope to cover during the course of the month:
–Daily Tropical Updates
–Stock picks (both weather-related and otherwise…I am in fact a balanced trader. I only talk about the weather and my energy positions to try and offer something unique)
–My opinions on Global Warming including arguments for and against as well as market plays. (During the week I am gone)
–Other cool stuff
Note: All posts (except this one, where it’s at the end) will also begin with a Calvin and Hobbes comic strip, mainly because I can. Calvin is the man, and I believe that every man should have a childhood like his. If Calvin traded stocks, he would rival the Fly
Disclaimer: Lots of storms, lots of time to watch them.
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