I am so very very happy…
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Despite the great sturm and drang of late day trading, the charts for the [[SPY]] still look relatively benign, and price is not even hitting the 20 day EMA yet.   True there’s been some readily apparent divergences in the MACD and RSI, but nothing to get overly excited about if this is just a consolidation for further action upward.

Canaries do cough in the coal mine, however, and one of the yellow hackers is perennial bull-nuisance   [[BKX]] , our Philadelphia Banking Index, which is currently humping over like poor Quasimodo at Esmeralda’s keyhole.   With the 200-day EMA ($43.42) breached today with considerable vigour (sic), I think this index stands a chance of falling through the  more recent support level illustrated below, at about $41.75:

I believe that if it does breach that level, the $BKX will likely bring the rest of the market down with it for at least a short term hiatus.

For my part, I did nothing trade-wise today save analyse (sic) highly intellectual rap orchestrations with Mssr. Le Fly, whilst eating peanut butter and banana samiches.  

Tomorrow, I may or may not do the same, but I will surely let you know.   Quicker still, if you’re residing inside The PPT, of course.

Best to you.

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Swisher Sweets are Smoo-o-o-o-ooth.
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I’d walk a mile… for a Camel… (and to buy that last piece of that January [[SPY]] put position– 50 more @ $2.89-2.92.)

Bryl-Creem, a little dab’ll do ya…. (just like a concentrated position in sold calls and targetted puts will “smooth out” the rough spots in a downdraft).

Winston Tastes Good, like a cigarette should… (so do 20 more [[GDX]] March 50 calls sold at $8.00 a pop.)

Rice-a-Roni, the San Francisco Treat…  (not unlike [[PTM]] , which has stayed strong — and unsold– while it’s brother PM’s have sweated.  That may change tomorrow, as I may take a third off, despite my lack of a full position as of yet.)

N-E-S-T-L-E-S, Nestles make the very best… (chocolate, maybe but not market hedges.  I expect we’ll have a bit of a global pullback, so even the traditonal consumer product hedges may be of little use.   Note that Brazil took a dive today from [[EWZ]] ‘s tops over $80.   A little [[EEV]] may be a choice smoothner her for a week or so.)

The best part of waking up, is Folger’s in your cup… (but maybe not Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. [[GMCR]] if it breaks through this near term support at $60, right here.  Next very strong support is $55, which I would consider “back up the truck territory,” on a bounce.)

Best of all, it’s a Cadillac… (but not if you’re a GM shareholder, Ford Motor Company [[F]] is actually looking good here on a pullback to $8.50.  I’m sure Mr. Cane Thaler is well pleased)….

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Feel free to add some favourite (sic) advertising slogan-themed picks of your own.   I’m off to dinner at a fantastic local restaurant.  Ciao.

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Jake Cashes in some Chips for “Butter & Egg Money.”
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Yes, I’m raising more cash ovah heah, and even buying puts for the first time since the March ’09 lift-off.    Sure I’ve sold calls in various weighty PM positions before this, but today I actually bot a starter in January [[SPY]] puts.   100 Jan 110’s @ $2.82-.85, to be exact.  

Was I early?  Sure looks that way.   That said, I think we’ll have a dollar bounce here very soon, and my purchase will prove propitious.   That said, I won’t add the second half until  I see a break, ovah heah.   Note the evidence:

In the meantime, I am continuing to sell down exploding higher PM positions, much to my rue and chagrin.   I just sold 2k more Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] @ $13.97,  2k more Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] @ $13.92 and 4k more [[EXK]] and Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]] at $3.91 and $4.23, respectively.

I cannot bring myself to sell anymore Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] , even as I know it’s the right thing to do at this juncture.  

My advice?  Now that the Fly is legitimately cussin’ and hollerin’ I think it’s time to raise cash like it’s “bread day” in Zimbabwe, people.  

In the least, it will be good practice.

Salud.

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“The Check Is in the Mail, Inshallah”
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The Turkey Gods are punishing Europe and Asia for not properly honoring Thanksgiving, as is proper and righteous.  

If you think, however, that we will escape the “surprize!” news that Dubai may default on all those re-donkulous island developments with which they were blotting the Arabian Sea during the height of the funny money period, well… have another bowl of stuffing and steel yourself for a margin call.

There was massive selling on strength in the [[SPY]] yesterday (close to $700 mm) and I thought that would mean Fly would get his 10,500 and “done” on Friday.   With the Euros getting emasculated in early Turkey Day trading (down anywhere from 3.2% to 3.4%), however, all bets may be off, and our sweet tongued friend may remain “family friendly” till at least the end of December.

In other non-surprising news, I sold even more Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] and Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] yesterday, 2k shares each, and to my horror, at prices well below their close.   That said, I am feeling more and more comfortable with my cash horde, and with my taking money off the table in these high falutin’ $HUI stocks.  

On Friday, I expect I will take the final step of getting rid of the rest of my [[AGQ]] (only 600 shs left, so not much) and selling some [[SLV]] and [[GLD]] for the first time in 14 months. 

I will not sell Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] or Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]] only because I have not yet built full positions in those, and will take this pullback as a gift.  I have trimmed every other position anywhere from 30-50%, however.

I plan to celebrate tonight with some nice turkey and egregious amounts of California cabernet.  Caymus Special Reserve is my favourite (sic), but I’ll also bring some Freemark Abbey, as it’s a friend’s winery, and I’m partial.

Please have a Happy Thanksgiving, and try not to think too much about how cranes in Arabia (or other wealthy developing nation enclaves) nearly always designate a market top for most of the Western World.    

Best to you all, my friends, and watch the drinking and driving.

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Mind this One, too.
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Doesn’t it just seem like this tape is chock full of momentous milestones?  Not to bore you, but it seems like they keep coming, three a day — fire, flood and poor draft picks alike.

Sorry, that last was a shot at former NY Giant GM, Ernie Accorsi, long may his toupee moulder.  I’ll speak no more of trading the largely mobile and quick thinking Phillip Rivers for the clubfoot, Eli Manning, hurler of rookie interceptions deep into his sixth year on the job.

I’m not bitter, I swear.

But back to the momentous event of the day.   I like to call it “The Intercession of the Magic Gap.”   Back in the early days of October, 2008, when this whole gerbil basket of a market was falling to the feral cats, we had a Friday-Monday gap on the [[SPY]] of some significance.  It’s illustrated below:

 As you may recall, it got quite ugly after that.   However, the reason I illustrate this gap today is that I believe it’s serving as quite the psychological barrier for our market participants.   

Those bears, beaten and stripped of their 10k Rolex’s and cashmere mittens have long recognized this fillip as the “enough is enough” Maginot Line.    They believe this is where they can stand athwart history and cry “Stop!” in full W.F. Buckley (R.I.P.)  mode.

The bulls on the other hand, see this as a natural accelerant.   Like Right Guard aerosol on the open campfire, they know this region of “free air” should propel this bull even farther and higher once breached for good.    And to their credit, that was the case this October 14th and 15th, when we zoomed through that gap like a hot canoli through marzipan.

However, it seems that our gap has acted as something of a “CAP” upon reaching the north end.  Note we did exceed the roof, but not by much:

And my thinking is that this, too, is to be expected, as is today’s test of the uptrend line (also marked on the above chart).  

In fact, if I’m correct here, we are just consolidating this momentous level, and we should bounce off our long term trend line here on our way to the 1150-1180 range, where we’ll find our next consolidation point.  Here’s the BIG PICTURE I’m looking at, including “Gap/Cap:”

The great thing is, if I’m incorrect, you’ll have two things to give me yellow parsnip grief over — the Giant loss, and the Bull loss.  

But we’ll know soon enough, won’t we?  

Ciao for now, and Go Junkees!

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Aside — This is AWESOME… (gotta love youtube):

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6KR2CiceeWg 450 300]

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I got good news and bad news on the market  front, ovah heah.   The good news is, I’m going to show you my Russell 2000 chart ($RUT), which I’ve been using to parse the market since before the first bank meltdowns of late 2007.   You see the Russell, even more than the [[SPY]] in my opinion, gives you a better view of the “overall market” than any other index.    You can also check it’s volume using [[IWM]] it’s ETF.

I find that the Fibonacci retracement lines work very well in analyzing the Russell as well.   Take a look at where where we found ourselves this morning:

As you can see we are bumping up against one of the stronger Fibonacci “Golden Ratio”  (inverse) lines at 38.2% (the other being the actual Golden Ratio of 61.8%).   I expect that means at least some sort of rest stop here.   That said the “good news” is that 13-34 week cross which implies further bullishness should it continue.   As I have attested, and I think even Woodshedder has agreud (sic) — the 13-34 week “golden cross” is one of the most significant bullish or bearish indicators out there.   

Let me know what you think, but don’t be surprised if I disregaurd (sic) your thoughts in a cavalier, dismissive way, whilst inserting snuff up my nose, all atop my “knee-controlled” white charger.

One other point — some of these biotech unpinned hand grenade small craps are pulling back a little today, and since I sold off 2/3rds of my [[HEB]] -brews yesterday, I may dip back into the Red Sea to rescue some more pedestrians today.    I also like [[IMGN]] here (thanks Henry!), but will not add more as I am “full up” to the brim with it.    [[SVA]] also bounced nicely off it’s trendline today, but I’d wait to see if it drops back to $2.90 before taking a chance on any of it.    The last insanity is [[CTIC]] which has been a darling of The PPT, along with [[BEE]].   I think the latter looks a lot more promising, but have not gotten any yet. 

As always, I recommend you stay as far away from the above paragraph as you would a Mossad Hit Squad with your name at the top of their list.   There’s no question your purchase of any of the above will warrant a quick waterboarding, coupled with a full-torso Obama campaign sticker “body bind”, finally finished off in a late night rowboat assisted drop into The Great Salt Lake, where you will bob for hours, your pitiless cries ignored by disinterested Mormon seagulls.

On the precious metal front, as I suspected, more pullback, but the metal rustlers cannot disguise all — [[PTM]] looks strong here, comparatively.   Slow and steady wins the race, old boy.   Best to you all.

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Update: I bot 2k more HEB to take with me across the unpaved Red Sea @$3.10.

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