[youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rMjAf8Nwohs 450 300]

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No, I’m not speaking of Mssr. Le Fly counting his Broken Robot Coin in his Counting House, whilst tossing flaming egg-nogs at his trader servant, Mssr. Le Cratchet.

I’m talking about the classic The Year Without  A Santa Claus double production numbers from those brothers of Sun and Snow, the Heat and Cold Misers.

This piece is actually a cover by Big Bad Voodoo Daddy (an RC favourite, no doubt).   While I prefer Dick Shawn’s Snow Miser in the original version, I have to give the overall production medal to BBVD, as they are large, bad, magical, and also your father.    Besides, Heat Miser is a mite too drag queenish in the original…

As I suspected, after a month’s worth of work,  the market [[SPX]] tipped over the 50% fibonacci line today at $1121.50 or so, and is now seemingly out of the box like a busted robot and headed to $1227, where awaits our Golden Ratio of 61.8%.   As I’ve mentioned, I think we will eventually get there, but not before a pullback, which could be quite gland-challenging.  

With [[TBT]] breaking out quite convincingly here, equities have been put on watch that their discount rates will continue to increase.   As well,  the dollar pullback, as shown by DXY and [[UUP]] today has also been de minimus.    Maybe all the rules of finance will continue to be suspended in honor of Santa and Rudolph, but I wouldn’t bet my Christmas gelt on it.   

That’s why I haven’t yet jumped in the molten gold pool yet, either, as appetizing as Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] and Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] are looking today.   I could be wrong, but I don’t think the dollar is done shagging with us yet.   No real worries, though, my Pagans.   Santa Ben will soon take up his ink stamping device and all fans of the continued mass portraiture of the Inventor of Electricity will be appeased.

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May all your families have a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year, even if it may be Pagan, or whatever.   It’s all about the kids, and what you make of them in the end, anyway.  

Best to you all, and thanks for your well wishes and support in 2009.

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Bonus Clip, Humour Division:

[youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6yUCbqAGrg 450 300]             

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The Once and Future Gold Standard?
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Some quick notes on direction…

Despite the imprecations of some, this is wholly and incontrovertibly a dollar-dependent market.   Wither the dollar, there goeth the market.   Your bombastic arguments may be amusing, but the Santa Gods only chuckle when you laud “progress” and “economic viability” like some kind of Parallel Universe Bizarro Karl Denninger.

(Slap! Slap! Slap! Slappity-Slap!)  Get serious, at once!  

 This market is riding a giant tsunami of Bernanke dinero and that’s why it’s been going up like a drunk clown in a circus dirigible.   But it looks like Benny’s press machines are getting a rest, ovah heah.   Or maybe it’s just that the rest of the world’s craptastic fiat currencies need a chance to catch up.   In any case, the dollar is back above it’s 50-day EMA:

I think it’s very likely we could see the dollar rebound all the way to its 200-day moving average (between $79-$80) before it turns once again like a wounded albatross and heads for the longer term lows in the $71 range.

As for our friend Baby [[HUI]] , I mentioned the other day that on Wednesday last week it came within $3 of it’s old highs from March of 2008 ($519.68).   That $516.16 high marked the top, however, and we’ve quickly sold down since then to close today at $461.19 — a $55 dollar move in 5 days of trading.   

If the stock market is sensitive to the dollar, then the gold miner market is even more so.   That’s why I think that Baby $HUI has got some more work to do here.   Here are my targets: 

Do I think the 61.8% fib  (@ $378) is also in play?   You bet your sweet bippy, Grandmaw.  Verily, I think the move down here is going to be somewhat soul-crushing, and I think the miners may feel the worst of it.   I bot some more SPY puts ($110’s again) and now my stash stands at 250 contracts, with a number more of sold calls in United Parcel Service, Inc. [[UPS]] . Monsanto Company [[MON]] and Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] .

But the bull is not over, make no mistake.  So bide your time wisely, here, and keep your wallet hand loose and well manicured as you get ready for the next swing. 

That is all, save for my final admonition about the foolishness of your not yet becoming a member of the Trading Hive Mind in The PPT.   What gives?  Don’t you like money?

Spock out.

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Gurgle! Gurgle! Gurgle!
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Yea, and ye shall become as a Bear, and ye shall sup of the micturations of a turtle, in God’s syte and mercy. (Pantheons, Chapter 6, Verse 9)

And thou shalt impress upon yon Folio of Collycted Sycurities the [[SPY]] Seller’s Putt, in the amount of another Fyfty (50) certificates at yon pryce of $2.67, and they shall Stryketh at $110 dollyrs upon expiration in Janyary of 2010, the year of our Lord, in His infinite mercy. 

Your total therein and hereafter shall be One Hundreds and Fyfty  (150) Certificates of aforesaid Putts unto tomorrow’s dawn, whereupon ye shall stydy with great vigour the possible addition of surplus Certificates of Putt to be pyrchased.

Moreso, ye shall sell into the wynds of Chaynge and Hope another Two Thysand (2,000) shares of God’s own Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] , at a pryce of $17.21 by the lyte of St. Stephen’s Moon, though this cause ye great weeping and lamentation unto the Land.

Lastly, ye shall commit to the Church another shreeving of the Blessed Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] at a pryce of Fourteen pounds and twenty-seven pence.    Thine amount shall be an addytional Two Thysand certificates of common purchase.

Forswearing all meats and liquyrs unto the Eve of Christ’s Mass, ye shall pray unto the Lord for additional gydance and keeping always a gamely eye upon the Devil’s [[UUP]] and it’s mynions in the Federal Reserve Cathedral.

Keepest thou counsel close, and heare not the buzzing of Fool’s Inquisitions.   Stay thy course, and remain Upright in His syte.

May the Good Lord Bless ye and keep ye all safe unto Christ’s Mass.

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Jake Cashes in some Chips for “Butter & Egg Money.”
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Yes, I’m raising more cash ovah heah, and even buying puts for the first time since the March ’09 lift-off.    Sure I’ve sold calls in various weighty PM positions before this, but today I actually bot a starter in January [[SPY]] puts.   100 Jan 110’s @ $2.82-.85, to be exact.  

Was I early?  Sure looks that way.   That said, I think we’ll have a dollar bounce here very soon, and my purchase will prove propitious.   That said, I won’t add the second half until  I see a break, ovah heah.   Note the evidence:

In the meantime, I am continuing to sell down exploding higher PM positions, much to my rue and chagrin.   I just sold 2k more Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] @ $13.97,  2k more Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] @ $13.92 and 4k more [[EXK]] and Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]] at $3.91 and $4.23, respectively.

I cannot bring myself to sell anymore Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] , even as I know it’s the right thing to do at this juncture.  

My advice?  Now that the Fly is legitimately cussin’ and hollerin’ I think it’s time to raise cash like it’s “bread day” in Zimbabwe, people.  

In the least, it will be good practice.

Salud.

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“The Check Is in the Mail, Inshallah”
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The Turkey Gods are punishing Europe and Asia for not properly honoring Thanksgiving, as is proper and righteous.  

If you think, however, that we will escape the “surprize!” news that Dubai may default on all those re-donkulous island developments with which they were blotting the Arabian Sea during the height of the funny money period, well… have another bowl of stuffing and steel yourself for a margin call.

There was massive selling on strength in the [[SPY]] yesterday (close to $700 mm) and I thought that would mean Fly would get his 10,500 and “done” on Friday.   With the Euros getting emasculated in early Turkey Day trading (down anywhere from 3.2% to 3.4%), however, all bets may be off, and our sweet tongued friend may remain “family friendly” till at least the end of December.

In other non-surprising news, I sold even more Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] and Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] yesterday, 2k shares each, and to my horror, at prices well below their close.   That said, I am feeling more and more comfortable with my cash horde, and with my taking money off the table in these high falutin’ $HUI stocks.  

On Friday, I expect I will take the final step of getting rid of the rest of my [[AGQ]] (only 600 shs left, so not much) and selling some [[SLV]] and [[GLD]] for the first time in 14 months. 

I will not sell Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] or Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]] only because I have not yet built full positions in those, and will take this pullback as a gift.  I have trimmed every other position anywhere from 30-50%, however.

I plan to celebrate tonight with some nice turkey and egregious amounts of California cabernet.  Caymus Special Reserve is my favourite (sic), but I’ll also bring some Freemark Abbey, as it’s a friend’s winery, and I’m partial.

Please have a Happy Thanksgiving, and try not to think too much about how cranes in Arabia (or other wealthy developing nation enclaves) nearly always designate a market top for most of the Western World.    

Best to you all, my friends, and watch the drinking and driving.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ba8OGkwgPOc 450 300] ____________________
Yeah, I’m still selling.

Maybe “Armegeddon-style.”  Like I’m one of these fine Japanesey blokes fighting like a samurai to smoosh my face against the rising nylon tide.

All I know is that the dollar trade is stre-e-e-e-e-e-tched taut. There’s only so much a dollah can take, after all.

Before it snaps.

So I’m selling, into egregiousity. I’m selling beautiful IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] — one third of my portion at 2k shares @ $18.87.

I even sold more Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] today… only 1k at $16.15, leaving me with 10k left.  I got rid of the bulk of my KKR Financial Holdings LLC [[KFN]] as well, 4k shares at $5.35.

Meanwhile, in Market Earth, people keep appeasing the Turkey Gods with supplications comprised of gold scoffing and precious metal pilgrimage, saying :

“Oh Turkey Gods, if only you will make this a secular bull, and give reasons unto us that will be economically feasible for this uplifting in the markets, I will promise to stop throwing trash and banana excrement on my neighbor’s lawn, in Thy mercy.”

Too little too late, I say.  My pendulum is stuck at 9 o’clock, but not for long my fair thee widgets.   Said pendulum will come “crack-back” style to implode the knees of those hoping for a consolidato (Italian for “get up & go market”).

I am at 30% cash right now.  Near unprecedented.  There’s only so much a market can take, and guess what?   I’m selling more calls tomorrow.

Best to all you nylon tug of war mavens.

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