General Jackson Takes on Timmah Geithner and the Members of the First Federal Reserve Expeditionary Forces

I will be purchasing some Mongo’s (July 75 MON calls) after I finish this up, but first I wanted to trill the trumpet a bit on the key metals component of the Jacksonian Core.   That SSRI additional purchase two days back well below $21 is proving fortuitous as that Jacksonian worthy is pushing 11%  up today and over $23 per share upon most recent check.

In addition, the other JCHP silvers [[SLW]], [[PAAS]] are all above 5%, and tiny [[EXK]] has — as predicted — jumped back to it’s downtrend line again at $2.10 (to my chagrin, I wasn’t quick enough to get more this morning).   Again, I think it will be safer to purchase EXK when it’s well past the downtrend line, and perhaps after a retouch of that $2.10 barrier.   These minors can move quite quickly.  

Keep in mind also that [[AGQ]] is the double silver ETF that I recommended back at the $43 mark.   I continue to add to it on pullbacks.

On other fronts, it looks like our ever-so-brief retrace is about done, and we are ready to commence with this summer’s precious metal bull.    Enjoy the sun, friends.

Caveat:  If you purchase the JCHP holdings, it’s quite likely the Ghost Of General Jackson will visit the foot of your bed every fortnight, and lecture you windily about states rights and other such ephemera.    You may also lose risk capital in such an adventure.

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Update:  I bot 20 MONGO’s at $7.60.   Will likely add to this position.

Update:  I bot another 20 MONGO’s at $7.80.   Mongo LIKE Sherriff!

CDE breaking out @ $14.45 (I already have a small position).

Update:  I bot another 5,000 EXK at $2.11.   (See Caveat above)  

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Update:  Jacksonian Spokesman LL Cool J with a special message from SSRI:

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7l250E5uM4 450 300]

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Forgive the silly allusion, but I needed a snappy entry to counter a depressing day for one of our Jacksonian Stalwarts: [[MON]].  I figured Mr. Smiling Rastaman can offer some surcease to our collective agita.    MON got some bad news today, courtesy of it’s own management.  I’ll boil it down to this piece from the release:

For the quarter ending May 31, the St. Louis-based agricultural products provider (MON 79.88, -5.37, -6.30%) said it now expects to earn $1.15 a share, down sharply from its prior target range of $1.60 to $1.62 a share.   The reduction caught investors off guard.  Analysts polled by FactSet Research were looking for earnings of $1.61 a share, on average.

Yeah, that’s a pretty big reduction in earnings, but it turns out it’s all about some extra competition in it’s herbacide business, which is frankly, the ass-end of it’s value proposition, providing less than a third of overall gross margin.  

Seeds and traits are where it’s at, ladies and germs — that’s what garners the high end of MON’s 60+% gross margins and almost 30% net margins.   You think you can make that kinda coin selling weedkiller?

No sir, it’s the intellectual property that make this market leader a Jacksonian Core Holding, and why I will continue to trade around my position rather than part with it.   Here’s the IP driver update from that same press release:

The company’s seed and traits business, however, continues to show strength. The company now forecasts the segment to deliver gross profit toward the upper end of it’s the range of $4.4 billion to $4.5 billion it forecast for the year.

“The projected increase of more than 15% year over year reflects the combination of greater value, growth in the company’s branded seed businesses and expanded use of Monsanto’s trait technologies,” the company said in a release.

So granted, I was a little late in not selling some calls when MON banged against it’s 61.8% fib line (daily) last week (although I did mention it to you, readers).   Thanks goodness, I did part with the “booster” calls I had bot in the high seventies around their second quarter earnings announcement.   Here’s the good news, I will be buying “booster calls” again here, soon, and most likely tomorrow.  I will alert you, but here’s what I’m seeing:

You can see where my target is on the daily, which is showing pretty seriously oversold conditions (thought i can always get more oversold, can’t it?) — right at the retest of that old downtrend line.    Now, the weekly is relatively coincidental, with the long term 61.8% fibonacci line looking like nice resistance at a little over $78.35 or so.  

I will be watching these levels tomorrow, and likely buying July $75 calls to take advantage of a bounce to at least $84-$85.

One last update… the precious metals continue to consolidate here, and I think I shall be taking a strong look at adding some junior silver [[EXK]] tomorrow, and perhaps adding [[EGO]] to the Jacksonian Core, as well.    Best to everyone.

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	27-May	% Change
ANDE	$   24.59	-1.44%
GDX	41.22	-1.48%
GLD	93.45	-0.33%
IAG	10.45	-1.04%
MON	79.88	-6.30%
NRP	22.93	0.79%
PAAS	21.89	1.16%
RGLD	44.04	-2.95%
SLV	14.58	1.11%
SLW	9.40	-0.95%
SSRI	20.77	-0.24%
TBT	57.14	3.76%
TC	8.71	-0.23%
TSO	16.91	1.08%
Avg %		-0.51%

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There is nothing like “living for the moment,” and I won’t begrudge the staunchest of my conservative reader base a splash in Fly’s Pool of Carney Delights,  over on his blog and in the incredibly exciting “User Notes” section of The PPT  .   Let me assure you, ladies and gentlemen, there be some astute trading minds throwing Kruggerands around in that room.

That said, I’m sure glad I’ve got the bulk of my holdings in the JCHP, my friends, because I’m not sure how much time is going to be left in this “bring your own lava lamp” filthy 70’s-era hot tub party.    I think I already see some unpleasant objects of questionable birth rising up amongst the bubbles.  

First, I’ll draw your attention to our friend, Mr. U.S. Dollar.   He’s pretty much in “do or die” territory here, and frankly, I’m thinking we’re in trouble whether he strengthens or not.    Lookee here — remember our faithful dollar proxy UUP?

Well, heck if he’s not banging around down at the same December 18th lows that set the timer going on our next market plunge (which occurred about two weeks after the dollar started to climb again).   And here’s what’s worse… the dollar can continue to go down here, but I’m not sure that’s going to benefit our stock markets much, either.  

Why?   Well because there’s another bit of business the dollar keeps low if it’s behaving, and that’s our Treasuries’ interest rates.   If we show relative strength in our dollar, then foreign investors are willing to keep our debt.   But if the dollar keeps getting mauled here… well, those same folks might not be so kind to our lovely treasury paper.   Remember back when we first advocated  TBT as a Jacksonian pick?  Here was the chart:

We were expecting a nice move up, and we sure got it — in spades.   However, now the rapid run up in rate must give us pause with regard to how much longer the music can play.   Look at how far we’ve come since that last posting:

Bang!  All the way above the 200-day EMA.   Now you know I’ve been selling calls against my position here, in anticipation of a pullback.  Well, even as I expect a pullback, I’m just as ready to take a loss on those calls if I see this thing launch anymore than it has.  

Remember, TBT is my “Stock of the Year” pick in Rajun’s annual contest, and I continue to believe TBT is going to be the play of the next three to five years, minimum, thanks to the unwinding that will have to happen in our long term bond rates.   That said, high interest rates eventually take a bite out of stock prices, so we are going to have to be even more synched than ever with the JCHP. 

Remain vigilant my friends, and make sure you attend to RGLD.   I believe it’s the harbinger of our gold holdings’ future.   The other PMs will follow it’s lead, but it will likely become the star of this Jacksonian portfolio in future.

UPDATE:  I added another 1,000 shares to my SSRI holdings today.   I will add another 1,000 if I see further weakness, and then I will likely be “full up” in this name.

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		26-May	% Change
ANDE		$   24.95	6.90%
GDX		41.84	-0.50%
GLD		93.76	-0.73%
IAG		10.56	-2.76%
MON		85.25	-1.57%
NRP		22.75	2.43%
PAAS		21.64	1.03%
RGLD		45.38	2.53%
SLV		14.42	-0.55%
SLW		9.49	1.61%
SSRI		20.82	-4.19%
TBT		55.07	2.80%
TC		8.73	1.04%
TSO		16.73	3.08%
Avg %			0.85%

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Not to be disparaging, but I’ve felt I’ve spent the week with a squadron of flying goats.   There you are flitting from tree to tree looking for the best green shoots, ears up and horns out,  “baaaaahhhing” it up to beat the band.   

Chips stocks!  Cancer stocks!  Lenny Dykstra Car Wash franchise stocks!  Get ’em while they’re hot from the chute!

But why must you make your lives so difficult?  There’s no reason to search for rare buds in the top branches of the acacia tree when there’s plenty of bull grass right here on the ground.   Come down from there and take a look at the freshly scythed alfalfa I have gathered for you, my yellow-eyed friends. 

Remember our weekly $HUI chart from last week?

Well, look what’s happened this week…. Pop!

Can anything be more promising than that little green bud out of the consolidation zone?    And yes, we’re a little overbought here, and should be coming into some more resistance around 400 or so, but we should welcome that opportunity.  

After all my boy, it is a bull market — and maybe the only one you’ll see for years to come.  So relax some, take a load off, and get your nets ready.   It’s almost harvest time again.

This week’s Jackson Core Holdings Portfolio results were very pleasing, especially as measured against the indexes.   So have some nice goat cheese this weekend, and maybe try to pause a second whilst hoisting that relaxing beverage to remember those who have served, and especially those who have fallen in order that you could enjoy this great country.    Be well.

Name	5/8/2009	5/15/2009	∆	5/22/2009	∆
ANDE	$    21.50	$      21.31	-0.88%	$    23.34	9.53%
GDX	37.46	37.65	0.51%	42.05	11.69%
GLD	89.98	91.55	1.74%	94.45	3.17%
IAG	9.92	9.83	-0.91%	10.86	10.48%
MON	86.42	89.95	4.08%	86.61	-3.71%
NRP	23.39	21.29	-8.98%	22.21	4.32%
PAAS	19.35	18.66	-3.57%	21.42	14.79%
RGLD	39.90	39.97	0.18%	44.26	10.73%
SLV	13.79	13.77	-0.15%	14.50	5.30%
SLW	8.91	8.58	-3.70%	9.34	8.86%
SSRI	20.06	19.06	-4.99%	21.73	14.01%
TBT	52.24	49.13	-5.95%	53.57	9.04%
TC	7.98	7.65	-4.14%	8.64	12.94%
TSO	16.72	16.60	-0.72%	16.23	-2.23%
		AVG	-1.96%		7.78%
Name	5/8/2009	5/15/2009	∆	5/22/2009	∆
SPY	$    92.98	$      88.71	-4.59%	$    89.02	0.35%
QQQQ	34.23	33.37	-2.51%	33.54	0.51%
DIA	85.47	82.78	-3.15%	82.87	0.11%
NDX	1,394.16	1,355.11	-2.80%	1,363.17	0.59%
RUT	511.82	475.84	-7.03%	477.62	0.37%
		AVG	-4.02%		0.39%

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Why now this crying, this cringing, this fear?

What ‘ports of market disaster come near?

Come,  there’s no trembling, no reason to hide.

For this day, Brave ‘Drew Jackson, the Dude, will abide.  

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Have you good silver and gold in supply?

Use you green paper instead for your chai?

Best keep this warning in back of your mind,

Fed Notes like those will soon buff your behind!

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Silver Wheaton, Pan American and S-S-R-I

With bright silver trumpets the thieves they descry!

And their fellows in golden and anthracite hue,

(Gold, Royal Gold, NRP name this crew)

Like friends made in foxholes– they will always stay true.

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And in our travels, let’s not forget “farmer’s friend:”

Stout “Mr. Anderson” forges an uprising trend.

And those thinking  now of their grandkiddies needs,

Must never disdain Sir Monsanto’s brave seeds.

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“Molybdenum’s” fun just to say, if you ask me,

But “TC” is  the name of the stock that will task me. 

Especially when earl and gas spreads ‘come dear,

And Tesoro’s my ‘folios’ sole quit-claiming cheer.

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What’s left to us then, in the Jacksonian Core?

But to brandish the bane of that Great Federal Whore?

Yes Ben Bernake, I speak now to thee…

And like a cross to a vampire, hold high TBT!

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 ANDE — $22.75  (+0.57%)

GDX — $40.47 (+5.31%)

GLD — $92.25  (+1.42)

IAG – $10.16 (+2.83%) 

MON — $91.83 (+2.49)

 

NRP — $23.37 (+3.41%)

PAAS — $20.99 (+6.33%)

RGLD – $42.77 (+5.19%)

SLV — $14.10  (+0.86%)

SLW — $9.46  (+3.61%)

SSRI — $22.00  (+5.47%)

TBT — $49.95  (-2.14%)

TC — $9.14 (+1.56%)

TSO — $17.29 (+0.41%)

Daily Average:  +2.69 %

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One of these days I’ll shut the hell up about moving you into real money assets as quickly as your penny stock-spindling portfolio will allow.

But that day is not this day.   Not when the latest news clacking over the Jesse Livermore-era news ticker  in my offices reveals how Kommandant Barack is now going to nationalize GM — but “only temporarily.”   Turns out Dear Leader wants just enough time for Rahm Emmanual and Lanny Davis to wheel that aging aerophin-appended Caddy into his airplane hangar chop shop so to whack it up for distribution to loyal U.A.W. gummint cheese recipients.  

Tanks you veddy much, Kommandant, and dont’ forget to save the steering wheel, the white wall tires and the chrome ashtrays for the bond holders!    I said leave those white wall tires, you! 

So if the good fellahs in charge of everything  — and damn, they really seem like they are in charge of everything these days, don’t they? — are that cavalier about the big buck bondholders (some of whom were stupid enough to give them campaign money just months ago) , doesn’t that make you just a wee bit nervous about how well they are going to treat that other little U.S. bond obligation: The Federal Reserve Note?

So have fun, and be a silly piebald carnival piker if you’re so compelled.   By all means, stuff yourself into the clown car with all the other PPT nutjobs .  Throw some funny money at chip stocks that have been moribund since Bill Gates was still a virgin, if you feel that exercise will further your spiritual growth.   Go nuts. 

Hell, you’ll probably find me in that same Yugo  from time to time, playing Parcheesi with Ragin Cajun  whilst simultaneously sword fighting  The Chart Addict.    I’m human, after all, and enjoy an OTB rocket ride for greasy coin and bed bugged comfort as much as the next guy. 

Just don’t get too homey in that clown car, Homey.  Five will get you ten it will soon be remandered by the EPA for egregious CAFE standard violations, environmentally malevolant tailpipe emanations,  and toxic silly string abuse.    Then it’ll be medical experiments for the lot of us.

Well, not those who have been prudent about tendering some savings to the Jacksonian Core Holding Portfolio, whose hard money and hard asset plays will serve to keep some of us cosy with hot buttered rums and chedder toasties , whilst the OTB pikers scrape at our doors.  No luck for them I’m afraid.   They shall be turned out with a stern warning from Cuddy, our trusty footman.

But Cuddy welcomes the purchase of silver this day, as the Three Musketeers SSRI,  PAAS and  SLW scored again, with wins of 7.64%, 5.39% and 3.75%, respectively.   Do you get the feeling the market is trying to tell you something, Jacksonians?  

Beating even silver today was coveted (but not precious) metal molybdenum, as  JCHP member TC rang the bell with gains of 9.36% today.   All in all, the Portfolio only had two slight losses, and both in the red hot agricultural sector.  I expect MON (-0.69) and ANDE’s (-1.09)  small losses to be more like rests than ultimate pullbacks.   Still, this is why we’ve diversified even within this stable grouping, up 2.85% for the day.   Now quickly, onto our daily review:

ANDE — $22.62  (-1.09%)

GDX — $38.43 (+2.51%)

GLD — $90.96 (+0.66)

IAG – $9.88 (+1.23%) 

PAAS — $19.74 (+5.39%)

RGLD – $40.66 (+2.16%)

SLV — $13.98  (+2.95%)

SLW — $9.13  (+3.75%)

SSRI — $20.86  (+7.64%)

TBT — $51.04 (+1.07%)

TC — $9.00 (+9.36%)

TSO — $17.22 (+3.11%)

Daily Average:  +2.85 %

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