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Jacksonian Fire Sale!

There’s that bloody pullback we were talking about last weekend!  Um — No need to overdo it, there, brother!   We don’t want to scare any new Jacksonians away now, do we?   

Well I can’t say this wasn’t expected, although the bludgeoning of [[TSO]] is a mite much in my opinion, and may warrant some additional consideration, should it continue much past the $14.80 level, where I would consider it more than a bit damaged.  Obviously VLO and WNR are the culprits here, both pointing to an overcapacity in the business and possible need to raise capital (on WNR‘s part) allegedly.  As you know I was short the June 17.50’s, but even that money doesn’t make up for today’s bludgeoning.  I may just reshort the 15’s, here and exit if that is my fate.   TSO is something of an oddball (like MON and ANDE) in that it’s not directly commodity related, but rather peripherally.  

In short, I’ll let you know what I decide, but for now, TSO is on the “back alley execution” list.   Even though I bot most of my TSO below $10, I recognize that it’s only “Jacksonian” from the official start date of May 1st, so I will account for the loss (bot @ $16.01) from that date if I take it.

The good news is I think we may have a new Jacksonian entrant.   I began a “starter” position in [[PTM]] today,  at $15.14.   As I type, it’s about a dime below that, so I may add before the day is out.  If do add PMT to the JCHP, then I will likely kick out TSO, at a loss.

In other Jacksonian news,  [[TC]] is getting its socks rocked, in one of it’s now familiar one day pull backs.   Perhaps I’ll remember to sell the calls when I should next time.    As it is, it’s filled that $9.59 gap from last Friday, and I shall probably add a small amount more today.

[[EGO]] has tested the rim of that long term cup that was in formation from July of last year.  I expect it should hold up here, and I will likely add a small amount from recent biotech winnings to my pile here as well.

[[SLW]] I would wait on, now, to see if it can’t fill that gap down around $10-.   Gap fills have been excellent buy opportunities as of late.   [[SSRI]] ($23.38) and [[PAAS]]  ($22+ ) are both at good accumulating points, here.   Also if you feel adventerous, non-JCHP double Silver ETF [[AGQ]] has pulled back nicely here, too, but you may want to wait to see if it fills that gap at $52.30.

All the JCHP golds are accumulatable at these levels, right now, and I’d grab RGLD first, as always, and GDX is always a good “backbone” hold.

Caveat:  As always, I offer my opinions only, and not the usual advice for which you consult your local gypsy palm reader.   If you decide to follow me into the Jacksonian fold, it is because you are a person of independent means who spits in the face of market carnage.   Just remember that here, even in this sainted borough of the iBC Website, you can most assuredly get shot.   Trade accordingly.

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Update: I bot 2k more EGO at $9.38.

Update: I bot 1k more PAAS at $22.05

Update: I bot 4k more NG at $4.85

Update: I sold 4k TSO (25%) at $15.02

Non Jacksonian Update: I bot 10k CTIC  (25%) at $15.02

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We are All driven by Our Super EGO!

Ho hum, another glorious day in the world of General Jackson, loather of all that is bankish.  The precious metal picks continue to rip higher with very little rest in between growth spurts.   Soon I shall have to confine them to their rooms.

And yes, our MONstrous friend continues to vex, but I’m happy about my Alex Karras  (MONGO call) purchases today, and shall contrive to buy more upon additional weakness.   Five down days in a row for MON is quite unusual, and as you can see from yesterday’s chart, such stretching of the rubber band often leads to a quick snap back, where I am prepared to harvest my MONGO wins.   We shall see.

TBT also finally retreated, to the great relief of my increasingly expensive sold calls.   This retreat may be a good thing, all things considered, as it takes some pressure off  the “total collapse” scenario which could take other pieces of our worthy Jacksonian Portfolio with it, in thoughtless abandon.

But we’re here tonight to attend to some unfinished business — specifically the long delayed admission of [[EGO]] into the Jacksonian Core Holdings Portfolio.   It narrowly beat out it’s more elder candidates [[GG]] and [[AUY]] who remain readying in the Triple A leagues, batting for huge average whilst simultaneously stomping on Treasury officials of the twisted moustaches (sic) variety.

I’ve owned EGO for a while (as I have GG and AUY), and it’s been a PPT favorite for quite some time.  However, I wanted it to show the same “imminent breakout” characteristics that my other JCHP picks had before I added it to that worthy fold.   I believe today that sign came.  

 As much as I hate to roll out a pick on a large gaining day (7.28%!), I would feel remiss to hide this one’s light under a bushel any longer.  If you look at EGO’s daily chart, I think you’ll see why:

egodaily

And the weekly chart shows an even lengthier breakout from a long term consolidation zone.  

egoweekly

 

Today’s move was significant, and while we will have to monitor it’s continuation (as it may break below the breakout area again), I think we’re going north from here.     So let us raise a toast to our new Jacksonian, which I hope will make EGO-maniacs of us all.     Best to you all.

Caveat: If you insist on following the Jacksonian path into EGO, it’s dollars to doughnuts you’ll be trapped on the N-train to Atlantic Avenue with three unemployed psych majors who will ply you with the failed dreams of a liberal arts major until you fork a sawbuck at them.   And you might lose other moneys as well.

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  28-May % Change
ANDE  $    24.43 -0.65%
EGO          9.78 7.24%
GDX        43.01 4.34%
GLD        94.24 0.85%
IAG        10.88 4.11%
MON        79.00 -1.10%
NRP        22.98 0.22%
PAAS        23.14 5.71%
RGLD        45.90 4.22%
SLV        14.93 2.40%
SLW          9.95 5.85%
SSRI        23.21 11.75%
TBT        55.77 -2.40%
TC          8.99 3.21%
TSO        17.00 0.53%
Avg %   3.31%

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What’s Up MON? It’s Not the Weeds, it’s the Seeds!

Forgive the silly allusion, but I needed a snappy entry to counter a depressing day for one of our Jacksonian Stalwarts: [[MON]].  I figured Mr. Smiling Rastaman can offer some surcease to our collective agita.    MON got some bad news today, courtesy of it’s own management.  I’ll boil it down to this piece from the release:

For the quarter ending May 31, the St. Louis-based agricultural products provider (MON 79.88, -5.37, -6.30%) said it now expects to earn $1.15 a share, down sharply from its prior target range of $1.60 to $1.62 a share.   The reduction caught investors off guard.  Analysts polled by FactSet Research were looking for earnings of $1.61 a share, on average.

Yeah, that’s a pretty big reduction in earnings, but it turns out it’s all about some extra competition in it’s herbacide business, which is frankly, the ass-end of it’s value proposition, providing less than a third of overall gross margin.  

Seeds and traits are where it’s at, ladies and germs — that’s what garners the high end of MON’s 60+% gross margins and almost 30% net margins.   You think you can make that kinda coin selling weedkiller?

No sir, it’s the intellectual property that make this market leader a Jacksonian Core Holding, and why I will continue to trade around my position rather than part with it.   Here’s the IP driver update from that same press release:

The company’s seed and traits business, however, continues to show strength. The company now forecasts the segment to deliver gross profit toward the upper end of it’s the range of $4.4 billion to $4.5 billion it forecast for the year.

“The projected increase of more than 15% year over year reflects the combination of greater value, growth in the company’s branded seed businesses and expanded use of Monsanto’s trait technologies,” the company said in a release.

So granted, I was a little late in not selling some calls when MON banged against it’s 61.8% fib line (daily) last week (although I did mention it to you, readers).   Thanks goodness, I did part with the “booster” calls I had bot in the high seventies around their second quarter earnings announcement.   Here’s the good news, I will be buying “booster calls” again here, soon, and most likely tomorrow.  I will alert you, but here’s what I’m seeing:

mondaily1

You can see where my target is on the daily, which is showing pretty seriously oversold conditions (thought i can always get more oversold, can’t it?) — right at the retest of that old downtrend line.    Now, the weekly is relatively coincidental, with the long term 61.8% fibonacci line looking like nice resistance at a little over $78.35 or so.  

monweek1

I will be watching these levels tomorrow, and likely buying July $75 calls to take advantage of a bounce to at least $84-$85.

One last update… the precious metals continue to consolidate here, and I think I shall be taking a strong look at adding some junior silver [[EXK]] tomorrow, and perhaps adding [[EGO]] to the Jacksonian Core, as well.    Best to everyone.

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  27-May % Change
ANDE  $   24.59 -1.44%
GDX       41.22 -1.48%
GLD       93.45 -0.33%
IAG       10.45 -1.04%
MON       79.88 -6.30%
NRP       22.93 0.79%
PAAS       21.89 1.16%
RGLD       44.04 -2.95%
SLV       14.58 1.11%
SLW         9.40 -0.95%
SSRI       20.77 -0.24%
TBT       57.14 3.76%
TC         8.71 -0.23%
TSO       16.91 1.08%
Avg %   -0.51%

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Oh Shizzle! They’ve Killed RoboCodizzle!

Naw, it’s not that bad, yet,  but Detroit is getting there.   Let’s see what a couple of years of a U.A.W. -driven Chrysler do to it.

But let’s put all that aside and talk about the invisibility of this gold bull, shall we?  I mean, my astute buddies over in the estimable PPT — that Powerful Profit Taj– (have you signed up yet??)… even those gentlemen seem to be walking around that trading room like zombies in the Night of the Living Dead, completely oblivious to the blooming precious metal bull that is erupting around them.  

 Why, just today, one of our estimable patrons sold our featured “pocket rocket” junior miner (see below) as if it were one of CA’s 30 second Viagra Vehicles.   Let me tell you, I was aghast!  Mortified!

But let me assure you, Jacksonians, this odd behaviour (sic) only inures to our collective benefit.   The longer the general public (and let me make clear that the PPT community is NOT the “General Public,” they are at least “English Beat” or barring that “Fine Young Cannibals”– ) remains ignorant of the stealth bull in the precious metal miners, the better it is for our accumulation purposes.   

For, my friends  (come, gather close so I may whisper it to you) — we shall be as the most miserable pinch penny miser on Ebenezer Scrooge’s third shift staff, sparingly sifting our gold and silver specie into dark musty lock boxes while others pass the punch with knowing glee and manly aplomb.  Let them have their japes and their ales and their merry tunes played upon a three stringed fiddle, for we shall act quietly here below, rebuilding the foundation of a hackneyed and eroding financial system for our children and their’s.   It is weary work, but God smiles upon us, and there shall be reward.

That said, I dont’ have much time to dwell on the blindness of the common man, so let’s take a quick look at what they’re missing. 

Remember this chart of the AMEX Gold Bugs Index from a week or so back?

hui_daily1

Pretty nice looking chart, no?  Maybe some of you got long after looking at it?  Maybe some of you ran out and bought some gold stocks the next day, too.   (Heh) 

 Let’s see if that was the smart thing to do, from the perspective of a week later:

hui_dailyii

Well peel me naked and slather me with mornay sauce, whaddaya know?  A breakout just like we expected.   And look at all that free air we’ve got to go.   Hmmmm…  and what was  in that Index again?  Oh yeah, a lot of juicy big cap gold and silver stocks.   

Think maybe that break into the free zone will have some effect on our junior miners?   Heck, let’s see:

ngd_daily 

 This is your golden burrito for tomorrow and for the summer, my friends.  We shall share recipes for further tasty treats as time allows, but for now, know that outside the Jacksonian Core*, I am also purchasing and/or considering the purchase of the following precious metal mining hardies:  [[GG]], [[EGO]], [[AUY]], [[EXK]], [[NGD]], [[NXG]], [[NG]] and of course [[AGQ]].    

Keep in mind also, that there was a pretty bearish candle on the TLT today, boys and girls.  If that bond group and the Ten-Year Starting breaking down, it’ll likely be sayonora for the large part of this market.   Except maybe one part.

Caveat:  If you follow me into the purchase of any of the above named precious metal plays, your children will be stolen by Hobgoblins and traded to dwarves for shiny strips of tin foil and moldy bacon. 

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 ANDE — $22.20  (-2.42%)

GDX — $41.24 (+1.90%)

GLD — $93.85  (+1.73)

IAG – $10.23 (+0..69%) 

MON — $89.29 (-2.77)
 
NRP — $22.57 (-3.42%)

PAAS — $21.19 (+0.95%)

RGLD – $44.90 (+4.98%)

SLV — $14.34  (+1.69%)

SLW — $9.41  (-0.53%)

SSRI — $22.17  (+0.77%)

TBT — $52.43 (+4.96%)

TC — $8.46 (-7.44%)

TSO — $16.53 (-4.40%)

Daily Average: 0.25%

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UPDATE: I sold the calls on TBT again, here @ $53.58.   I think TBT is a bit parabolic here, and TLT looks like it’s ready to bounce.

See caveats above.

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What is this Lamentation?

Why now this crying, this cringing, this fear?

What ‘ports of market disaster come near?

Come,  there’s no trembling, no reason to hide.

For this day, Brave ‘Drew Jackson, the Dude, will abide.  

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Have you good silver and gold in supply?

Use you green paper instead for your chai?

Best keep this warning in back of your mind,

Fed Notes like those will soon buff your behind!

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Silver Wheaton, Pan American and S-S-R-I

With bright silver trumpets the thieves they descry!

And their fellows in golden and anthracite hue,

(Gold, Royal GoldNRP name this crew)

Like friends made in foxholes– they will always stay true.

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And in our travels, let’s not forget “farmer’s friend:”

Stout “Mr. Anderson” forges an uprising trend.

And those thinking  now of their grandkiddies needs,

Must never disdain Sir Monsanto’s brave seeds.

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“Molybdenum’s” fun just to say, if you ask me,

But “TC” is  the name of the stock that will task me. 

Especially when earl and gas spreads ‘come dear,

And Tesoro’s my ‘folios’ sole quit-claiming cheer.

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What’s left to us then, in the Jacksonian Core?

But to brandish the bane of that Great Federal Whore?

Yes Ben Bernake, I speak now to thee…

And like a cross to a vampire, hold high TBT!

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 ANDE — $22.75  (+0.57%)

GDX — $40.47 (+5.31%)

GLD — $92.25  (+1.42)

IAG – $10.16 (+2.83%) 

MON — $91.83 (+2.49)
 
NRP — $23.37 (+3.41%)

PAAS — $20.99 (+6.33%)

RGLD – $42.77 (+5.19%)

SLV — $14.10  (+0.86%)

SLW — $9.46  (+3.61%)

SSRI — $22.00  (+5.47%)

TBT — $49.95  (-2.14%)

TC — $9.14 (+1.56%)

TSO — $17.29 (+0.41%)

Daily Average:  +2.69 %

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Jackson, For the Win!

A great day for Jackson, the posthumously mentioned President to whose name  I’ve appended the Core Holdings.   This other Jackson, I’m not so sure, as I haven’t heard much from him recently.  It’s quite possible he’s retired now,  having achieved the final goal of his career — having an African American pro-abortionist receive an honorary degree from Notre Dame!

Er,  I mean seeing an African American elected U.S. President of course

Oh who knows, anyway?  He’s smiling about something at least, which, as Aunt Martha will tell you,  is a good thing.

Today was surprising, to say the least, especially as I had been worrying my fingernails  all weekend contemplating the words of my oft-prescient asset manager friend Chivas on the Rocks.   To be specific Mr. Peanut Butter Jelly Time told us Friday — “Hit the deck, it’s (likley a) Gap down Monday!” 

Luckily for me and mine, I weighed that sage advice against the lowing of the PermaTard community also gibbering and capering all last week about the End Times and the Death of the Sun, like some primitive bushmen frightened by the eclipse.   Volcano fodder, I claim these pagans be, and so good contrarain indicators as well.  I held my ground, by Jupiter’s Stone, Mars’ gall bladder and Juno’s clavicle.

So whether it was donkey dumb luck or Irish stubborness (some might say those’re the same) that kept me long –save for the small position in SRS (which I won’t sell) and the hedges I’ve mentioned previously — I really can’t tell you.  However, that stance has served me well these last nine weeks, and I shant turn agin’ it until I see the curl o’ the wave. 

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not seeking to get measured for a clown coffin, complete with “Bozo holes” in the base for shoe accomodation.   We are building the Jacksonian Portfolio for uglier days, after all.  But for now the ship sails in Carribean sun and we shall bask on her decks alongside the complimentary Hooter’s girls and chilled Dos Equis. 

Heck, we may even keep this [[SONS]]  and [[QSII]] position a couple of more days just for shizzles and the gizzles.

In the meantime, your Jacksonian Core Holding Portfolio is as substantial as the enameled decks of our sun bathing clipper ship.   Mind, it will serve you well when it’s time to batten down the hatches.  Today’s readings: 

ANDE — $22.87  (+7.32%)

GDX — $37.49 (-0.42%)

GLD — $90.36 (-1.30)

IAG — $9.76 (-0.71%) 

MON — $90.22 (+0.30)
 
NRP — $22.20 (+4.27%)

PAAS — $18.73 (+0.38%)

RGLD — $39.80 (-0.43%)

SLV — $13.58  (-1.38%)

SLW — $8.80 (+2.56%)

SSRI — $19.38 (+1.68%)

TBT — $50.50(+2.79%)

TC — $8.23 (+7.58%)

TSO — $16.70 (+0.60%)

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UPDATE: The Jacksonian Silver Plays are leaving the station (SSRI, SLW, PAAS).  I also bot 5k more of EXK for giggles (ie, NOT a Jacksonian stock by a long shot).

Caveat:  If you decide to purchase EXK your family will be kidnapped by gypsy werewolves one day after the Lone Ranger stops by to borrow your last silver bullet cartridge.   And you could lose your investment.

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