‘Twas a rough day in the trenches for most of the Jacksonian Core,  but then we turned lemons into lemonade by using the retrenchment here to pick up some final positions in the silver miners, including AGQ (Double Silver ETF), PAAS,  and SSRI.   Those buys were featured in my previous post,  if you want entry points.

   I did not add to my “favourite” (sic) silver miner – SLW, but only because I already have what I consider to be a “full position” in SLW, at least for now.    I may augment that position from time to time with options purchases (or sales in hedging situations), but I will likely not add any more equity in that name.

I also eschewed adding more EXK  (-5.89%) today, due mostly to it’s volatility and low float (less than 150 k shares traded a day).  This is a stock you want to accumulate when it’s asleep — its just too damn hard to pick up when it’s moving hard one way or another.    I reserve the right to add to EXK in more calm seas.

I also added some non-Jacksonian Core gold positions, some old, and some new, whose entries are also found in the previous post.    You’ll recall I purchased a beginning position in NGD just before yesterday’s close.    That stock actually held up well, so I decided to also add its “brothers” NG and NXG.  All of these have been showing favourable (sic) patterns in the last few weeks, and their purchase is part of a diversification strategy in the smaller miners.   It’s best to take this shotgun approach with these smaller guys, as you usually cannot pick up their exposure via the GDX ETF, which only purchases the larger cap issues  but you want to have a position in these flyers for when they start to run.   Some of them will double and triple, but in these cycle peaks, you never know which.     

In that regard, I also added to my position in ANV at the end of the day.    Like with SLW and EGO, I now have a full position in this name, and expect to see it run to at least the 61.8% fib retrace at $6.72 before breaking out to new 52-week highs. 

I also took this opportunity to hedge out my largest (and non-Jacksonian) position in UPS, and to begin a “foot in” purchase in SRS  as well. 

Non-PM Jacksonians did well and not so well today, MON was up a little less than 1% while its sister Ag play ANDE was off  4.67%.    If ANDE cannot hold above the $19.40 uptrend line here, it’s likely to fill that gap over a dollar below it.   As well, Jacksonian Core Coal play NRP (-4.89%) has been performing miserably here, even as coal operators have been consolidating.    This could be due to a (temporary) interest rate response, but I won’t recommend adding to this one until it’s back over the 38.6% retrace at $22.70.     Last, refiner TSO was largely flat–  off less than half a percent.

Without further ado, here’s the 14-Member Jacksonian Core’s performance (arranged alphabetically for your reading pleasure) for today:

ANDE — $19.79  (-4.67%)

GDX — $37.94 (-2.61%)

GLD — $91.09 (+0.42)

IAG — $9.87 (-2.66%) 

PAAS — $19.26 (-3.02%)

RGLD — $40.60 (-2.98%)

SLV — $13.81 (-1.49%)

SLW — $8.85 (-5.04%)

SSRI — $19.93 (-5.18%)

TBT — $49.29 (-2.08%)

TC — $7.68 (-4.00%)

TSO — $16.09 (-0.43%)

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A bloody good evening to you all!

(Warning! Extremely stupid video to follow, usher the children from the room)

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=teM_imSYGVs 450 300] 

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Bot 1,000 more AGQ @ $44.27.  Bounced right off the 61.8 % fib line at $43.57 this morning. That would have been the perfect entry, but I was trying to respect my 10:00 am discipline.

UPDATE: Ditched the remainder of my CRAAPL @ $121.05.  Only 400 shs left, but I kick myself for not cutting it loose over $130. 

UPDATE: Bot 6,000 NG (PPT: Buy) @ $3.30

UPDATE: Bot 2,000 more SSRI (PPT: Sell) @ $21.18

UPDATE: Bot 6,000 (starter position)  NXG (PPT: Strong Buy) @ $1.85

Non-Jacksonian UPDATE: Just hedged out my UPS position purchasing the July 50 puts and selling the July 45’s for a debit spread of $1.50 a contract.   Shelter in a storm.

Non-Jacksonian UPDATE:  bot 2,000 SRS @ 24.55-.56 for downside hedge.

UPDATE: Bot 2,000 more ANV (PPT: Strong Sell) @ $5.81

UPDATE: Bot 1,000 more PAAS  (PPT: Sell) @ $19.09

Caveat: If you purchase any of these PM plays you may wake up with The Midas Touch — but ironically — only with respect to your favorite cats.    On top of that, you could easily lose money.

Developing…

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Not a lot of time for explication on this one, as I’ve got a lax game to get to.   I’ve owned IAG (NYSE) (PPT: Buy) on and off, and have had a small amount since the $HUI started looking good again, back in March.   I went back in and got some more today on this consolidation breakout, at around $9.25.   I will probably will wait for a test of that zone to get any more.  

 In any case, I’m officially putting this one in the Jacksonian Core, as I believe it’s “all grown up” now, and ready for long term hold.   I think you can see from my notes on the daily and weekly, why I think it’s an emerging power.   I like stocks that break out from long consolidations, especially when the market favours (sic) their sector.

And the Weekly:

 Important: Special thanks to Cap and his Joisey Harem for posing for today’s illustration.   Best to all.

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Whaddaya know? Ag’s starting to heat up again.    I was going to hold off on announcing Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON) (PPT: Buy) as a Jacksonian Core Holding stock until we got a little pullback, but as you’ll see from my charts, I want you all to be looking at it this week, in case it wants to do a Clark Kent into Superman “up, up and away” on us.

I’ve got some other ags I’ll be talking about as the week progresses, but this is one of my favorite holdings, and a company that I believe can be called “the GOOG of the agricultural world.”   MON has anywhere from a three to five year lead on many of their genetically modified competitors in a number of different seed products, and in my mind, they are the biggest dog in what I believe will become not only the critical space in modern agriculture, but a highly lucrative one as well.  

 The difference between MON and a lot of these hot ag stocks (including MOS, which I also like) is their high level of quality “intellectual property.”   Not only does MON own a stable of well known brands,  but they also hold  multiple patents on their genetically modified seed technology and are continuously working to create new forms of insect and weed-resistent, as well as drought-resistant crops which will bring yields up and global food prices down.     As global protectionism raises its ugly head again during this recession, you want to own the top dog in the agricultural space, as it’s the also-rans who will suffer most from loss of global market share.

As I mentioned, the charts are looking portentous, with the daily chart showing a breakout of both the short term downtrend line and the consolidation zone formed by the price-volume bars.   We may get a pullback here on lighter volume,  as we are slightly overbought.   But, with the ags running, it’s also as likely that MON could take off this week, which is why I wanted to get this pick out for your consideration:

The weekly show similar portent, with a low volume lift off out of the consolidation zone accompanied by the price crossing the 13 and 34 week moving average in a brisk fashion.   The weekly chart corroborates the daily’s favorable oscillators as well, and shows our significant support and resistance areas for your  target and stop setting.    For my part, I will continue to hold MON in my core portfolio and trade around it using the targets indicated.  

Monsanto remains my second largest portfolio holding.  

Caveat: If you choose to purchase this stock ,  you’re in deep peril of being served Frankenfood Franks n’ Beans for your next Thanksgiving Dinner.   You could also lose your food allowance.   Be vigilant and opportunistic.

UPDATE:  MON and fellow Aggie, ANDE off to the races, along with the sector.    Look for a pullback to $87.80-ish for MON.    Look for ANDE to bull-flag here ($17.65) but don’t wait too long… I think this is the move we were expecting.

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What’s that?  Invest in dirty sooty 100% carbon coal when President Obama is promising to cap and trade your smoke-stackin’ ass into penury? 

Are you nuts?   

Well, sure– a little… but that’s besides the point!  Remember, Jacksonians, the market is a discounting mechanism.   I think you will find— via the magic of the charts– that the market has already digested Mr. Obama’s misguided command and control policy attempts here, and perhaps has grown a bit skeptical of those plans’ chances for passing.

 My new Jacksonian Core Holding is Natural Resource Partners’ L.P., (NYSE: NRP) (PPT: STRONG BUY).   It’s important to highlight that NRP is a coal royalty company, and not a coal mining company, which is important, as coal royalty companies take no operational risk, aside from that of replacing an impaired lessee on their lands, and have a relatively simple balance sheet consisting of hard commodity assets.    Here’s NRP’s description:

Natural Resource Partners L.P., through its subsidiaries, engages in the ownership and management of coal properties in Appalachia, the Illinois Basin, and the Powder River Basin regions of the United States. The company leases its properties to coal mine operators in exchange for royalty payments. It also engages in coal infrastructure business and the ownership of aggregate reserves that are leased to operators. As of December 31, 2008, the company owned or controlled approximately 2.1 billion tons of proven and probable coal reserves. As of the above date, its coal reserves were subject to 201 leases with 73 lessees. The company was founded in 2002 and is based in Houston, Texas.

The highlight is important, as it indicates ownership of about $92.5 billion in coal reserves for a company currently trading at around $1.6 bn in market cap.   While this is of course not an apples to apples value comparison, as coal in the ground is not valued like mined coal ready for use,  it is an indication of the long term financial stability of this partnership, given the status of coal in our energy cycle (over 50% of our electricty is generated by coal) especially in these unsteady times.   Combine that with an 8.5% dividend at today’s prices, and you’ve got a nice piece of anthracite with which to shore up your portfolio.  The aggregates business is a nice diversifier, but I am in this one for the real black-gold that makes up 94% of our country’s energy reserves — high BTU anthracite.

The downside for you tax nebbishes is that NRP is a publicly traded limited partnership (“L.P.”) so you will receive a K-1 for your dividends and capital allocations, instead of the standard 1099.   The good news is, a good portion of NRP’s dividend has a capital gains component attached to it, which will actually boost your after tax cash “keep” on April 15th.  

I think you can tell by the chart and its annotations, that NRP has finally cleared some significant traffic here, and poked it’s head into an area of significant free-air.  Look for any chopping up of Obama’s carbon grab in Congress to shoot NRP higher.  I’m locking in the divs here, and am long 7k shares with an eye towards adding today.

 And now, the weekly chart, which us also indicating significant upside potential, as well as intermediate term price targets:

Caveat:  If you attempt to follow me into NRP, there’s a strong chance Barack Obama will arrive at your house and bum all your cigarettes, and you may lose value in your positions.

Be well, and be attentive to your government, Jacksonians.

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And not just the Ozzie Rahpoe-tah (sic)!   Take a look at Jake’s favorite refinary play, and one of my “top ten” holdings:

Note how it’s just today breaking out of that medium term triangle?  It’s also continuing yesterday’s move above the intermediate-term 61.8% fibonacci retrace line (drawn from the 8/25/08 high to the 11/21/08 low) at $14.86, and has also show good support at the short term 38.2% fib (again, “strong”) retrace line  (drawn on this chart from the 11/21/05 low to the 02/16/09 recent high). 

 I’d be  more comfortable if the volume were a bit better than it is this morning, but there is some precedent on “low volume sneak ups” for this stock if you look back at December’s move on the above chart.   

That December move-up also nicely illustrates how a stock can move quickly up once it breaks out of a congestion zone.   As you can see, TSO will be leaving it’s current congestion zone at about  $16.30 or so, which will coincide quite neatly with the 200-day EMA currently at $16.49.

The more cautious will want to wait until we break above that congestion, and the 200-day is my first “check off” where I will be selling covered calls at least.   However, given the moderation in crack spreads and the supply-demand issues in the gasoline distribution channels entering the summer driving months, I think I am reasonable in targetting the recent highs of $19.00  as a result of any “congestion relief.”   That could come very quickly, so keep an eye open.    As well, I am targetting the 38.2% long term fib retrace (drawn from the 10/26/07 highs to recent November ’08 lows) level of $28.65 as my “major exit point” for this pick. 

Disclosure:  I am very long this stock, and warn you that any purchase of it may signal your local Congressman that you are “a-okay” with a new refinery project in your postage stamp backyard.   Oh, and you may lose money.

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