Ho hum, another glorious day in the world of General Jackson, loather of all that is bankish. The precious metal picks continue to rip higher with very little rest in between growth spurts. Soon I shall have to confine them to their rooms.
And yes, our MONstrous friend continues to vex, but I’m happy about my Alex Karras (MONGO call) purchases today, and shall contrive to buy more upon additional weakness. Five down days in a row for MON is quite unusual, and as you can see from yesterday’s chart, such stretching of the rubber band often leads to a quick snap back, where I am prepared to harvest my MONGO wins. We shall see.
TBT also finally retreated, to the great relief of my increasingly expensive sold calls. This retreat may be a good thing, all things considered, as it takes some pressure off the “total collapse” scenario which could take other pieces of our worthy Jacksonian Portfolio with it, in thoughtless abandon.
But we’re here tonight to attend to some unfinished business — specifically the long delayed admission of [[EGO]] into the Jacksonian Core Holdings Portfolio. It narrowly beat out it’s more elder candidates [[GG]] and [[AUY]] who remain readying in the Triple A leagues, batting for huge average whilst simultaneously stomping on Treasury officials of the twisted moustaches (sic) variety.
I’ve owned EGO for a while (as I have GG and AUY), and it’s been a PPT favorite for quite some time. However, I wanted it to show the same “imminent breakout” characteristics that my other JCHP picks had before I added it to that worthy fold. I believe today that sign came.
As much as I hate to roll out a pick on a large gaining day (7.28%!), I would feel remiss to hide this one’s light under a bushel any longer. If you look at EGO’s daily chart, I think you’ll see why:
And the weekly chart shows an even lengthier breakout from a long term consolidation zone.
Today’s move was significant, and while we will have to monitor it’s continuation (as it may break below the breakout area again), I think we’re going north from here. So let us raise a toast to our new Jacksonian, which I hope will make EGO-maniacs of us all. Best to you all.
Caveat: If you insist on following the Jacksonian path into EGO, it’s dollars to doughnuts you’ll be trapped on the N-train to Atlantic Avenue with three unemployed psych majors who will ply you with the failed dreams of a liberal arts major until you fork a sawbuck at them. And you might lose other moneys as well.
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| 28-May | % Change | |
| ANDE | $ 24.43 | -0.65% |
| EGO | 9.78 | 7.24% |
| GDX | 43.01 | 4.34% |
| GLD | 94.24 | 0.85% |
| IAG | 10.88 | 4.11% |
| MON | 79.00 | -1.10% |
| NRP | 22.98 | 0.22% |
| PAAS | 23.14 | 5.71% |
| RGLD | 45.90 | 4.22% |
| SLV | 14.93 | 2.40% |
| SLW | 9.95 | 5.85% |
| SSRI | 23.21 | 11.75% |
| TBT | 55.77 | -2.40% |
| TC | 8.99 | 3.21% |
| TSO | 17.00 | 0.53% |
| Avg % | 3.31% |
Thanks, Jake. I bought a little EGO last week. Will be looking to add.
This Jacksonian portfolio is, indeud, boring.
After the last couple of years, I like boring.
TBT also finally retreated, to the great relief of my increasingly expensive sold calls…
You and I against the world buddy. Everyone, and I mean everyone, is calling for a bond crash. You know what you have to do when that happens.
I am buying MON tomorrow, for the long haul. One of my first “buy and hold” non miner stocks.
I think you are wise to do so. That said, be prepared to buy it again if it flirts with its 200 week MA again.
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SLW is down tomorrow. So is Auy. So is PAAS. So is KGC. So is ANV.
Josh, I am renaming you.
From now on, you shall henceforth be known as “The Dentist.
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dont get me wrong Jake I like gold/silver just we are up against major resistance care for a chart or two? we need to consolidate. first. market begins to crash and we break out as a fear play?
http://tacharts101.blogspot.com/2009/05/why-i-see-pullback-in-metals.html
of metals above why we pullback…
Treasury is going up. TBT down and TLT up
http://tacharts101.blogspot.com/2009/05/tlt-has-bottomed.html
The price of Gold is the reason these stocks move, not your T & A.
I have been loading up on MFL.TO all of 2009.
Many of these gold stocks have already doubled, you are too late to the party. Now I am holding out to see what GLD will do.
who says i am late to the party. better to be late than early. Anyways I just said their pulling back…. but gold still has a lot more to go I think long term(3 months from now)..
i am short right now…. my gold position/silver is like nothing and was made to nothing today. i will add on a pullback and prudent entry
Jake, have you abandoned your day job?
The dollar is taking a serious beating in this overnight session. All commodities are rising. Looks like yet another glorious day for the Jacksonians.
Gold at $975 now.
By the way. What is your opinion on SA – Seabridge Gold? I bought some recently as I really like their large gold resources.
How about your oil/refinery play TSO. It seems to be underperforming compared to the rise in crude oil price. Would you consider adding some USL, DXO or the like to the Jacksonian Core in the future?
“SLW is down tomorrow. So is Auy. So is PAAS. So is KGC. So is ANV.”
lol, go away.
Glud- I have played with SA in the past, but I find it less reliable than most. Will likely be fine in the coming rush, but not JCHP material.
And to your second point, I own PBR, OXY, DXO and even ERX in my personal port, but I cannot vouch for their long term hold potential like I can for TSO and the other refiners that I believe are value plays here. I might be swayed by PBR and OXY, however, as they have been long term winners for me thus far.
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Jackson will be selling “Gold $1000” rally caps on sale at the iBC company store.
Payment accepted in gold nuggets only, of course.
Bruce — no, why?
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EGO Flying, and my MONGOL’s have finally started going in the right direction too.
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NG up 7.62%, NGD up 8.82%, EGO up 5.96%, EXK up 4.29%
Some others:
ANV +6.45%
AUY +5.88%
KGC +4.10%
PAAS +2.72%
SLW +6.13
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Hey Jake… way to go on your calls and sticking by them! I’ve been making a killing as I’ve found my portfolio to be heavily weighted in Jacksonion fashion as of late. I’ve been holding EGO, HL, NXG, SLW, AUY, TGB… I’m up over 50% in AUY (bought in the high 7s). It’s great to see some of my longer-term buys (AUY, SLW) turn profitable as I bought them on the way down.
My question has to do with pulling back on the reigns of Jackson’s sallying forces. What are your targets in the near and medium term? Sorry if I’ve missed it in one of your posts.
Thanks for your help and everything you’ve brought to iBC… You know I voted for you.
Do you plan on taking profits and then adding on the dips over the summer?
I was taking profits at 20%/30%, because in the past I had lost so much money on the PM’s, but now I am thinking to hold the winners and just keep adding on any big dips.
I did sell out of all my HL this morning because of a fine they received for EPA water violations…all the reason I needed to unload that one.
Skittish.
Oh, I just see Heckler asked about the same question.
HL is a dog, I warned RC about them.
There are plenty of good companies out there, no need to mess with the poorly managed ones.
That said, they are up over 8% today, so what do I know? 😉
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Heckler/Chanci — The Jacksonian Portfolio is a LONG TERM PORTFOLIO constructed for people that can’t follow every move by RC, CA and the Fly.
I will be trading around certain positions (as I did when I sold calls on TBT and TSO recently), but I will not be selling anything until I see gold and silver topping out, which I don’t expect to see until at least 2010, or unless I see fundamental damage to a certain sector or name.
There will be pullbacks, and I may trim here and there, but this port is not about paying taxes on the large positions.
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Alright Jake, today’s action has convinced me to take down a long term position in a shiny substance. Right now, shotgun to the back of your head, what are your two favorite plays from now till August?
RGLD, SLW.
(One from each category)
Thanks
Jake,
Nice break out on top of a meltup on SLW today. Glad I finally bought into SLW in april after all those years of you touting it.
I meant to ask you. How come you are bullish long term on TSO but not crude (USO, etc.) or gasoline (UGA)?
Don’t seem to jive with me but I have not perhaps caught all of your justification for TSO. Splain it please if you have time.
Cave —
Both of those are short term fluctuation plays. As you’re a mathematician, you’ll appreciate that I consider TSO a “second derivative” kind of play off the prices of the underlying commodities they use.
Crack spread is where it’s at, and it’s widened since I started buying TSO below $10. I think just a nominal retrace will bring us back to the high twenties.
I picked TSO because at the time I thought it the most undervalued, compared to VLO and HES, etc… also, it’s more stable than WNR, another I like and own, but not in the JCHP.
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Fair enough. But I was thinking of the analogy that you like gold fizzical and gold companies therefore it seemed to follow…
And on the 2nd derivative thing, I definitely appreciate that point but my argument back would be that for the most part any derivative should be more volatile (and therefore more risk and more uncertainty) than the underlying.
Just trying to make you think! And my evolution lately has been to be more interested in the non-equity plays like gold physical, oil, TLT/TBT, etc. I am liking more and more what I think is a higher degree of forecastability in things other than stocks. And with things like options, etc. you can get the leverage you want.
SLW is down tomorrow. So is Auy. So is PAAS. So is KGC. So is ANV.
An ignonimous end for the Dentist, who shall no longer be visiting.
For the record:
SLW + 5.63%
AUY + 5.66%
PAAS + 1.21%
KGC + 3.23%
ANV + 6.31%
Egregious.
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Caveman — well AGQ has certainly been berry berry good to me lately, that’s fer sure.
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I know this isn’t exactly, “news” here, but:
-Silver marks biggest monthly gain in 22 years
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Silver futures gained 3% Friday, ending the month with their biggest monthly gain in 22 years as inflation worries and hopes for an economic recovery boosted the metal. Gold rose to three-month highs as the dollar slipped.
Silver for July delivery, the most active contract, gained 45 cents to end at $15.61 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The front-month June contract closed at $15.60 an ounce.
Meanwhile, gold for June delivery rose $17.30, or 1.8%, to close at $978.80 an ounce, the highest settlement since Feb. 23. Silver has gained 26.6% this month, the biggest since April 1987.
Gold has gained 9.8% in the month, the biggest monthly gain since November.
Hmmm… I guess I started blogging at a fortuitous moment, no?
One would almost think “someone” is watching over the old iBC.com
Someone is.
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do you recommend adding on TBT here or are you waiting for the forties?
great site…and info…thanks..you obviously put a lot of thought into your posts…
Mrs- I think they’ll likely bring TBT back under $50 here, where I’ll likely buy back my calls. I would not add til then.
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Selling front month TBT calls = ballz of steel. Next week $100B rollover of short-term paper, which may not go as well as previous months, then the 10s & 30s go on the block early June. No much time for BB to knock ’em back down before the June expiry.
Jake:
Awesome posts. Your Jacksonian is genius. Although I read and appreciate all of the bloggers here (who doesn’t love The Fly), your buy and hold perspective is a little closer to my investment style and is much appreciated.
I got in fairly heavily into the Jacksonian this week and it was a good week. Of course, I am now kicking myself for not getting in with even more.
I try to follow your technical analysis (also following CA) but I’m afraid it is still a bit over my head. Tell me, do you see another entry point any time soon?