Freeeeeeee-ddddoooooooooooommmmmmmm!!!

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Just wanted to let you know that I’m still here, albeit with my guts wound around a spool and looking forward to that “Can’t-Get-Here-Soon-Enough” beheading.

I kid, of course.  But I didn’t want you to think I had abandoned you all, or my positions.  No, I’m sticking hard here, and have not deployed any more money today, although a couple of things are looking very tasty. Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] is one of them, already up more than a buck off it’s lows of the day. I may dabble in that one more time before the day is out.

[[AGQ]] is presently suffocating me, by means of a large rock laid across my larynx, choke-out style. This is the way this stock trades, though, so you have to be ready for “double draw-downs” as it is a double ETF. I will be looking to add that final 600 shs here, however, and it may be today or tomorrow. Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] is equally as ugly, but has (as a kind reader mentioned on the previous thread) quite a reputation from pulling back hard off of highs. Whether it gets all the way to 35%, I cannot say, but I’m also waiting to see how that on develops.

For golds, RGLD aside, Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] is performing the best of my three cabelleros. Next IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] and dragging up the rear is the less liquid Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] . I continue to think Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] will provide the best long term bang for your buck, but I’d only nibble until a turn is confirmed.

The dollar (DXY) is most frustrating here, as it ran all the way to $79.97 only to fall back to the $79.84 region. I was hoping it would clear out all the way to $80.50 or so, but it looks like we may have to wait on that action again, at least until tomorrow.  

There’s also a possibility that $79.97 was the high water mark, but I’m not counting any of those quail’s eggs yet.   

Note — 1,035 or so is a 10% retrace on the S&P (or $103.5 on the [[SPY]]  — that could be a nice target for any resumption in the overall cyclical bull.  I imagine we’ll all be pretty exhausted at that point.

Hang in there, folks.  

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 Special Update:  

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcoVxbutl8g 450 300]

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Best to you all.

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Krull Leaves the Poker Game for a Quick Smoke Break
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Up 3% yesterday, even with all my hedges still in place, I must bow to the volcanic power of the precious metal rebound we experienced yesterday.

That doesn’t mean I’m abandoning my post on the 12th slippery rung of the main municipal sewer — the cosy seat next to the extrusion pipe but before the extrusion weld.   No, I’m still expecting a pullback today from yesterday’s Ode to Joy/Bunny Rabbit Massacre, unbounded. 

But the dollar (seen on the intraday as [[UUP]] or DXY) still continues to fall off here, and I’m wondering if we will ever get back up to that $80.10 or so pivot (on DXY)  I’d talked about as a trigger for another downturn last week.    I won’t be surprised, however, if we get another exogenous shock out of Davos, the PIIG’s or even President Obama’s recently unveiled near $4 trillion FrankenBudget. 

For now, I’m liking what works on the rebound, and thus far, it’s the fast movers of the junior golds like Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] and “the X-factor” — Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]] .   I also like IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] and Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] of course, and Lindsay made a nice rec yesterday on the nicely pivoting Taseko Mines Limited (USA) [[TGB]] .

Of course silver is my true Tsar Bomba play in 2010, as it has been lagging the 2009 move in gold, along with platinum [[PTM]] , Stillwater Mining Company [[SWC]] and palladium [[PAL]] .   Right now, in this first updraft, I like the double silver play [[AGQ]] a whole lot, and of course my core group of miners — in order — Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] , [[EXK]] , [[PAAS]] , [[CDE]] , [[SVM]] , Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] and the lowly Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] .

All of these should be gnawed at opportunistically, as one would a bread wheel from the boulangerie, deep under the steam pipes of Manhattan.

I am still not taking down my hedges (in  [[SPY]] puts and [[QID]] and [[BZG]] ), and will happily bleed money on them here, as that insurance policy has served me well these last weeks.   Nothing could please me more than taking them down at lower balances, however, as that would mean all of my other plays are working well, as they did yesterday.

Don’t forget about the banks, here, as they’ve never really suffered much of a pullback, even in last week’s deluge.  Today, they seem to be leading the red dogs, which may turn out to be an opportunity for you.   Again, I like BB&T Corporation [[BBT]] for the longer term hold, Fifth Third Bancorp [[FITB]] and Huntington Bancshares Incorporated [[HBAN]] for the Ohio pop, and Pacific Capital Bancorp [[PCBC]] for the lotto play (stay small and remember, it’s only a game).

Best to you all, First Amendment scholars.

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Busy, Busy, Busy.   Yeah, you got nothing today, but I threw some calls down in The PPT, because theys mah peoples, and theys payin’ the bills.  So sorry.

I bot some  more Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] calls — 40 more June $11’s at $4.30.   That brings my tote up to 160 in that class.   Yeah, there might be some more pain in this name, and in my other precious plays, but you know what?

I’m not going to get overly concerned. 

 I’m shrugging off this “Volker scare.”

I say here for you — it’s bullshit.   Rhetoric.  Albumen.

   I knew we’d have some sell-off and the PM’s were way ahead of the rest of the market in this cycle decline, which means that they will likely be done before the rest is too.

I’ve been adding tons here on Friday and today, and as I mentioned I was actually up at Friday’s close.    Not so much today, but that’s only because my hedges “gave back” some of Friday’s wins.    Those are the kind of losses I can accept.  I consider that the equivalent of paying off Sal & Tony for “protection.”    If we go bull green from here, I’ll be happier than Harpo at the Thai Masseuse convention, and I’ll sell those hedges at a loss, if necessary.

But now, they stay, even as a I load up on 4k more [[EXK]] at $3.45.    2k more IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] at an unfortunate $14.31 (again, I’m not worried), and 400 more Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] at $44.52.

Between today and Friday, I’ve been loading up on PM’s and banks.   I didn’t add any banks today, but I think I may take a third swipe at Pacific Capital Bancorp [[PCBC]] and BB&T Corporation BB&T Corporation [[BBT]] .   One other playah that I bot last week is Fifth Third Bancorp [[FITB]] .  I may add this one as well tomorrow.

I may  look at coming out of my final [[GDX]] and [[SPY]] hedges tomorrow as well, as they are option hedges.   My only other remaining hedges besides those are [[QID]] and [[BGZ]] , which I will likely hold until I’m sure we’ve turned back to the green.

Make no mistake, I’m extremely bullish on the continuing inflation trade here.  Bernanke will remain, and so too will the continuing flog of the dollar.   Play that game by buying select equities and precious metal bangers.

Bless you all, and I mean that.

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I’ve been abominably busy and there’s just no accounting for it. You’ll just have to put up with my ghostlike presence as I H.A.L.O.-parachute in with various recs from the troposphere.

The good news is, nothing is going on that hasn’t been anticipated for some time. You might be at the opera, you might be at the symphony, you might simply be out at the soda jerk’s enjoying a nice sasparilla with your best girl, Friday, but you haven’t missed a thing.

You’re right in the middle of it, so it’s time to lay down your knitting needles and Persian cat, and lookee here at these six charts of wonder. They are all in the weekly format, so you know there’s “no bullshit” gumming anything up, making you lose your nerve.

If I’m you, I’m relaxing right here. I’m not you, and I can’t relax due to my manic tendencies, but don’t feel bad, it keeps my weight down in the winter. I’m relaxing and I’m letting the market come to me. If I’m you, I mean. “Come to me” is code for “wait for the 13-week EMA touch” — especially on these balenes of beauty.

First two LED stocks. “WTF!?” you say to yourself.

WTF, indeud. Come on ovah heah and check out “Elvis” the King — Cree, Inc. [[CREE]] first. Behold!

And his LED brother, from Ghostbusters II — Veeco Instruments Inc. [[VECO]]– almost as purty !

Now those are some pretty formations, no?  Can you say “simpleton easy?”   Good, good.   Now look at my other friends.  My favorite goldie Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] is first:

And who could forget my enormous EGO—  Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] ?   Another weekly wonder:

One more golden gate to my heart, is the appropriately named IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] :

And last but not least, the “Stock of the Year” –Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] —  a silver stallion that will outlast them all:

Repair more to your weekly charts for comfort, my droogs.   Remember “13-week EMA” on these high fliers, and let not the shadow of Zul darken your hearts.

Quanza.

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Exchanging the Secret Handshake
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The guy on the right in the picture above is counting on the stupidity of his majority peasant populace to pull off one of the grandest day-time thefts in recent years — the 50% devaluation of his country’s currency by fiat Executive declaration. Like the crazed-with-power dictator in Woody Allen’s classic comedy Bananas who declared “All children… under the age of 16 years old.. are now…. 16 years old,” El Pizza Face above is “declaring” that every unit of currency (the “bolivar“) is worth one half of what it was worth yesterday… just “because.”   

What’s even funnier is he’s now saying that retailers cannot raise prices in response to this devaluation, upon pain of seizure.  How long do you think retail businesses can stay open charging 50% under cost of goods?   One wonders also how long even the economically illiterate majority of Venezuela will stand for such blatent skulduggery?   I’m guessing for about as long as the food stores hold out.

Meanwhile back here in this country, we’ve got that pesky Constitution getting in the way of any similar grand plans to immediately double the money supply.   But our leaders want to get in on the free-gov’t-money-for-votes-racket too,  so they’ve got to come up with more creative methodologies.  

Luckily, they’ve got a compliant Federal Reserve whose number one priority is saving themselves and the badly damaged fractional reserve banking system.   That means the Fed’s alleged “guiding missions” of maintaining low inflation and a high rate of employment take a back seat to the Darwinian imperative — “survival at all costs.”   This is good news for the dear leaders in Congress and the White House.

What’s more, our leaders have got the rest of the world using our currency as reserves.   That means, for this brief shining moment in history, our leaders can do what Hugo Chavez only wishes he could do — print fresh new bails of cash via deficit financing with little to no apparent consequence to our national economic status.

For now. 

But Mother Economics is even more of a caustic wit than Mother Nature, and much like these soi-disant world governors who are being served flaming slices of “Humble Baked Alaska” with these record-breaking cold temperatures, so too will our Congressional and Fed Capos reap multiple facial hatchetings to their long beards for this extended abuse of global trust.   The dollar may not halve in value over night like the Meatball’s Bolivar did, but it’s breaking down all the same.  

Today’s action has us back in the congestion zone again, which is a sticky swamp as of late.   This means good news for commodities and other real things as the clarion bell of inflation is being rung once again.   Answering the call is your one and only “Stock of the Year” pick Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] , now clearly BTFO’ing to new 52-week highs.   I like it on a pullback, as it has a reputation for filling gaps.

While [[GLD]] is moving up in a stately patrician manner, [[SLV]] and its turbocharged brother  [[AGQ]] are playing catch-up, and will likely out-perform in the near term.   Same holds true for the other precious non-gold varietals like [[PTM]] and the two platinum-palladium miners [[PAL]] (which is a rocket ship headed to the sun, Icharus-style) and Stillwater Mining Company [[SWC]] .

Don’t forget all the junior burritos I’ve given you in the past.   Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] and IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] head the list, but the “Nth Factor” — NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) [[NG]] , New Gold Inc. (USA) [[NGD]] and Northgate Minerals Corporation (USA) [[NXG]] are roaring too, along with Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (USA) [[IVN]] , Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] , Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]] and many others.   

If I had to pick another “launch to the sun” like Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] I think it would probably be [[EXK]] .   It reminds me of SLW in the old days.     Hold on to your capital people, they will try to appropriate it in multiple fashions going forward.  

Best to you all.

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It’s quite likely I’ll start to unwind my hedges tomorrow… especially those covering my PM and commodity positions.

It’s hard to discard the evidence that’s popping up all around me.   Yes, we’re overbought like a mother, and yes, we’ve not had a cycle turn in 44 days.   However, I’m seeing precipitous increases in my hard asset positions that point to increased currency devaluation insurance being purchased across the board.    The dollar has not yet broken down, but the metals are being bought in big, breakout ways, visible even in my longer term weekly charts.  

Here are three alone that start with “T,”  — and what’s more, none are even precious metal plays.   My Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] ‘s and IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] ‘s are a story unto themselves.    I will likely start rolling back into those tomorrow as well, but for now, let’s look at these steel-related commodities…

First up is the old weasel Titanium Metals Corporation [[TIE]] , which I’ve bot many times in the past, only to be disappointed.   It’s been earning merit badges these last three weeks, however, and looking like it wants to get back in the Troop:

As you can see, this should go to $17.50 relatively quickly (dare I say after a pullback to that consolidation breakout?), and the next major resistance is very close to $30.  

Now consider our Jacksonian non-PM friends.  First, the frisky Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] :

The volume from this week just cannot be ignored (especially given it’s only Wednesday!), and this Jackson looks like it’s only now getting it’s legs for a larger launch, likely inflation fueled.  $16 is an easy target, but long term, she goes to $24, I think.

Last, let’s look at fellow Jacksonian Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] , which seems to be finally breaking out of a minor consolidation after a very quick spurt from the depths of despair back in March ’09.   This stock has come a long way from well below $5, but I think it’s got some to go as well:

As I mentioned, the price of gold and silver and the actions of [[GDX]] and Baby $HUI today also give some assurances with regard to my silver and gold positions.   While I will hope for some more pullback here, I will not expect it, and I will likely start pacing back up to “full position” in those names again as we go forward this month.

Best to you all.

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