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What a lucky bunch you are.

No, seriously, you are in for some fun tomorrow, especially if you are a PM “noob,” because we may get a gold and silver sale tomorrow that would put even a semi-retarded Wal-Mart jewelry clerk to shame.

It looks like we’re getting one last final swaller before we do our annual Santa run, and this one may turn out to be fun for short and long term trader’s alike.

I’m not going to show you last night’s price of gold chart again (just click one back to see it), but suffice it to say we are “right on” the 34-week EMA, just as I’d expected.   Seems we made the entire move in one day.   And on relatively light volume.   What does that tell you?  Keep in mind we’ve got COMEX options expiring today as well. 

I announced in The PPT and later on my blog that I had taken the opportunity to grab some more IAG and SLW, as both of those looked ripe for a bounce, even more so than my planned purchase of ANV.  Looking again at the longer term charts, I see that SLW could drop another dollar lower than my $18.09 purchase price, and if it does, you should take advantage.

I think ANV will finally be ripe for plucking tomorrow, maybe as early as the open.   The daily picture tells the tale here:

Looks scary, but in fact, the 200-day EMAhas been a beautiful place to pick up discounted goods in this secular precious metal bull, and you are lucky to see it once again, despite the seemingly perilous status of the situation.   Look again at that three month move from February to May, and keep in mind we are coming to Santa-season sooner than you think. 

Ho ho ho!

My other “favorite” that is looking awfully tempting for tomorrow is my massive EGO.   This time, the weekly has the better view:

 If you can catch this one anywhere near $14.90 (the 34-week EMA) then you are golden, pony boy.

I like SLW and PAAS as your silvers on any kind of gold bounce, but so does Barron’s, so for safety, I’d look at EXK here too. 

Best to you all, and happy hunting tomorrow, you lucky dawgs.

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Addendum:  For  you political types… this is one of the best articles I’ve read all year on the historical and political analysis of our currently “evolved” system of government.   I think Purdy and probably M. Le Docteur would both love it…  Angelo M. Codevilla’s The American Ruling Class, and the Perils of Revolution.   Excellent stuff, really.

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It’s called work.  I’m back home, and I’ve got tonnes of it.  I shall be out of the office again for three days this week and have all manner of personal and personnel issues to work through.   What’s worse, my right hand man is taking this week off (and deservedly so, as I’ve been working him like a Sherpa in tourist season).

I did have a chance to look through the charts tonight, however,  and I continue to believe two things.   One, this rally will continue, most likely after a slight pause that will either accompany or ensue from a dollar strengthening.   It won’t be much, but enough to continue working out it’s current oversold condition.  

This week would not be the week to add to the TNA (D’Rex Triple Russell), in other words.   It may be a decent week to continue looking at the PM recovery that firmed last week, however.   This is especially true if we’re given a bit of respite with the dollar strengthening.

As the daily AMEX Gold Bug ($HUI) chart show, that rebound off the oversold levels has occurred.  If the cycle continues as it has, we should see at least $490 again, and perhaps even new highs, depending on what the dollar decides.   Here’s the latest in a series:

I would continue to add to strong names that look like they’ve bottomed for this cycle, especially IAG, ANV and EGO in the golds, and SLW and PAAS in the silvers.   RGLD — the royalty banker — is also extremely attractive at these levels.

Feeling adventurous?  Gobble some EXK.   Or gobble some more, in that case.   I can’t tell you how much that stock reminds me of SLW, and even it’s ultimate parent WHT (now known as GG) in the bad old days of the early 2000’s.  I believe it will eventually provide similar rewards.

Someday, you will thank me for nagging you on all this.

Best to you all.

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If the Market’s not Crashin… Hey! It must be the Mon-ay!
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I haven’t a whole lot for you tonight.   Most of the PM’s held up pretty well today as the dollar shilly shallayed about, dancing the mazurka to a deflationary beat.  I”m especially fond of EGO, IAG and SLW’s  “holding up” action today despite the cannonades from the Depression Era Debutants.  I happen to think ANV is offering a nice dip purchase opportunity here as well.

Save the drama for one’s mama, fellahs… the dollar will tell the tune, and it already is.   Here’s the daily for the “close-up” look at where we are in the cycle:

As you can see, there are some conflicting stochastics here, but if I have to choose a marker, I’ll usually go with Woody’s favourite (sic) — the 5-day RSI.   There’s no clear path here, however, and the situation will resolve itself when we are out of that 20 to 50 day EMA channel referenced above.

The monthly chart on the dollar may offer a bit more direction.   This last looks like an exhaustion candle to me, but then I’m biased.  

Occam’s Razor  tells us, however, that Ben and the CBE boys (not to mentiont the Ministry Of Finance in Nippon) will hit the QE button again in order to save the banks and avert a deflationary vortex.   Why will they save the banks?  Because there will be no second TARP… not in this election cycle.   What other tools have they at their disposal?

Moreover, the Fourth of July is a historically solid up week.  Will this year be different?

You make the call.   I’m heading off on vacation, blythe and fancy free.   Mostly.

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 Here’s the origin of today’s title:

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RtSDWq6HsJE 450 300]

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqlJl1LfDP4 450 300]

Love this version….

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Going up to the territory of Monsieur Le Docteur du Fly for a couple of days for business that could very well shake the foundations of Finance itself..

Or barring that, I’ll at least grab a decent steak and catch up w. some friends.    Whatever the case, I will be “around”  these premises only sporadically as I cannot guarantee that my connections will be up to speed or that I won’t have all of my time accounted for whilst up there.

I’ll leave you with your rudders tied for the moment, as I think we may get a little bit more grinding into the Friday expiration, with the possibility of a last pop into that date after more muddling tomorrow.   The dollar bounced back very slightly today an ended in the lower part of it’s track for the candle pattern.   The golds, perhaps sensing continuing weakness in $USD are continuing to crank, almost in step-fashion across the board.

Today RBY finally took off as predicted last weekend, up over 5.5% today:

  

RBY looks like it may be finally launching off that consolidation of the handle.  I expect more this week.

 BAA — which took off right away on Monday as you recall — continues to rise, and has now completely recouped it’s 19% discount from the secondary offering level I’d mentioned over the weekend…. Recouped it… AND MORE.

As you can see on that weekly chart’s stochastics… BAA has a ways to go as well, and I believe it will.

I continue to see strength in my favourite stocks, which fills me with untold joy, as I’ve pallet loads of them.  SLW looked great today, as did ANV and especially IAG.   I continue to like EGO here as well, not to mention RGLD, EXK and PAAS.   Eat, and enjoy.

Best to you all, hope to speak to you soon.

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“Dollar Bill,” the Three Legged Horse 

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The formidable monster dollar days are as done as well oiled-Gulf cod, with a side of Pelican mashies.   The Euro may continue to break down and every paper currency in the universe could go the way of all tinder, but I do not think any of it will help our much abused dollar.

Nope, you see Bernanke caught that acrid whif of deflation over the last fortnight, and he knew exactly what he had to do.  And he did it — he opened lines of credit for crappy multinational and Euro banks to stabilise (sic) their burgeoning debt crisis.   He used our bucks to help sterilise (sic) bad Greek and Carpathian debt like it was mere Fannie Mae mortgages or something similar.

And what a time to do so — when the dollar was as healthy as a three legged horse in a horse amputee ward at the veterinarian hospital.   Heck, you might have even ridden that horse, were you forced too.

To the abbatoir.

So Bernanke saved all the legless horses in Europe with his three legged horse and guess what… the bill has come due and it’s stipulates right here in ten point Hellenic script: “more legs.”  

More legs down as the printing presses continue to fly and whirl and shuttlecock and do all things printing presses do whilst churning out fresh greenback, further diluting their wirth (sic) to one an all.   Note how in the weekly, we’ve got a two week breakdown in the works since our tumultous “third top” high back in early June….

As you can see $85.00 is my near term goal, and that should coincide with a nice spike in the overall markets (not just the PM’s though they should surely benefit too) after we work off the overbought high so adroitly noted in The PPT .   

You can see $85.00 makes sense on the daily as well:

$85 is very close to our 50-day EMA as well, which further reinforces that target as a resting point, if not a full rebound target.

What will happen as a result of this continuing dollar meander down?   I’m afraid that in the intermediate term, it’s bullish for the markets — even if only artificially so.   Luckily, one can better guard his well-earned profits by placing them in an operating company that measures its assets not in dollars, but in something more substantial.  

That’s correuct, “the precious” is just that substanital asset, and mining operators have that, and leverage too.

You know my favourites as they never fail to please… ANV, SLW, EGO, IAG, and PAAS for now.   Keep a firm hand on the best, and you will have ample “excess capital” to play with the rest, like the other evenings’ offerings (BAA and RBY).

Gun to my head best immediate picks :  TC, TCK, CREE, ANV and IAG.

Stay safe, my friends.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DgwJJ3pXvOw 450 300]

(Appropos of nothing, really)

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I don’t even know why I attempt to suggest other varietals.   Is it the desire to be au courant?  The obligation to entertain?  Devil-may-care hair in the wind type stuff?

I don’t know, but really… it’s just plain silly.  There’s a single bull market at play here, and this is what we are about.   I had a bunch of positions take egregious losses today, most notably those in the “hot but not” LED space, like CREE and (worse) VECO.    POWR hung tight, but I can’t imagine that nasty Friday WSJ article will leave it be, either. 

I even took a small bit of VECO off today, in the mid-33’s, because I figured it would be a while until I saw that position back in the drivers seat.    No matter, as I bought more AGQ with the proceeds and promptly saw it rise a buck and a half (to $60 a share).  Is there anything more exciting than having one’s steed cut down from underneath one in the midst of pitched battle, only to find a stronger charger at the ready?

That is why I was not down today, despite egregiousity in the above names and even some other hard metals like TC and TCK.  It was all due to the gorgeous strength of our gold and silver portfolio.    I speak primarily of the silver miners, including SLW, PAAS, EXK, SVM, MVG, CDE, SSRI and HL.   But the gold’s included prized champions like RGLD, ANV, EGO and IAG, who were stalwarts too.   

Note how the $HUI index held up today on the weekly:

Am I wearing cats’ pajamas or is that thing looking like it wants $520?   You tell me.

Then there’s one of my favourites, ANV.   She’s just been a trooper since we picked it up just under $6 last year, and is seeming to have no trouble moving on three times that size.  Note that strong weekly consolidation?

 

And the daily looks just as promising, after a decent pullback:

Another promising pick, and one I should leave alone and go macrame a duvet, or something “crafty” like that.  God knows I’m only dangerous going outside my “comfort zone” in the PM world, and He surely sent me a signal today.

May be time to re-assess and de-stress.   Real money is coming back into vogue once again.

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