[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Y88SaP4orc&feature=related 450 300] God Bless our Veterans This Day… “to the Lost!”
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First, my thanks to all who serve and who have served. This is your day, God Bless.

Second, I just got back from my road trip so I’ll be brief.  There’s not much more room in this dollar bounce, in my humble.  In fact, I may amend my $79 target (the 13-week EMA) down to $78.60, which is the 50-day EMA.  

No, none of these numbers ever work out exactly, like some sort of magic poodle act, but they are a decent guide for resistance levels — especially when we are entering overbought territory already.  Behold — 

And when that dollar starts turning down, the PM’s will start running again, with abandon.  The silvers have hardly slowed down, but EXK would be on my radar screen along with the usual suspects.

Mostly, the gold juniors are looking the most appetizing here, specifically IAG , IVN and EGO.   However, this knife catch will probably be my first buy when the dollar cracks its head tomorrow:

Ciao to you all, annoying Italianate friends.   Go out there and buy a beer for a veteran or a current service person, and never be embarrassed to say “Thanks for your service!” to someone in uniform.  They really appreciate it, every time.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WM1RChZk1EU 450 300]

The Greatest Hip Hop Video Of All Time… Do you Dispute it?

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And so appropos, no?   Can you dispute I got a million ways to get it?

Who holds the Jacksons, still?  Which of you?  

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I took some silver off today, specifically SLW, PAAS and EXK.  My positions in these were fecund and preposterous.  They were an insult to God, they’d grown to such metastisitic proportions.

So I reset on some.   But I keep all of my SVM, MVG, and SSRI, with an eye on adding again to all of them.

And even more so with the gold juniors.   Some have asked me, “what of IAG?” 

More of it here, good sir?

Yes, good sir, yes, yes.    And NG and IVN at any scant opportunity.   But above all, constantly feed RGLD. 

Outside these of the Precious, only MON, UPS and ANDE are attractive to me right now.  

Go on now, I’ve given you enough! 

Go!

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 Indeuuuud!

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Don’t get me wrong, silver will pull back almost immediately here. And gold should have a nice refrain as well. But all the Glenn Beck modalities aside, let’s not lose sight of the big picture here.

Don’t let the closet commie Keynesians who are currently plaguing the Fly ward you away from the nose in front of your face. It seems there are those who would hew to the belief that the sovrereignity of our currency will remain, unmolested by the tenets of common sense or basic economics. In the words of Lewis Carroll — “Callou Callay, oh frapjous day!’

Nothing to worry about here right?

But then, there’s that old bogey “empiricism,” creeping up to spoil their party once again. One example?

Does this indicate an overbought investment?  Well, sure.  For the last ten years now.   In fact, that’s why perhaps the silver sister has finally begun catching up, and the ratio between the two has begun shrinking.

But there’s still quite a bit of room to go:

Even silver looks a bit overbought right now, doesn’t it?  Yes, in fact, I may take some of my leverage off early this week as a result.  That means I’ll likely sell some of the AGQ I re-purchased in the $93 and $96 ranges, and maybe even sell my SLW December $25 calls as well. 

It’s not like I’m going to sell any of my core positions.  That would be foolish, given the disposition of our currency.  The DX-Y chart is what you should be watching, rather than the ephemeral explanations of the “cake and eat it” economics students who’ve recently appeared like noxious mushrooms on these internets.

Don’t let their quibbles with Glenn Beck or any other broadcast polemicist stay you from your review of the empirical data.  The dollar will bounce, likely at $74 or so.  But that gato will be expired before you can cash your small beer change. 

Friends, the dollar is the Dallas Cowboys of the currency world.  It may have another touchdown or two in its future, but those brief triumphs will be wreathed by tragedy.

Indubitably.

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I still like EGO, if you’re looking for a latter day saint.  Also, IAG is probably a pullback look. 

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vNc5o9TU0t0&feature=related 450 300]

Jimmy Page, eat your heart out!
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You may be familiar with my call that gold and silver are overbought and should be pulling back here. Well, I still stand by that call, and as proof, today I sold approximately 25 to 40% of my EXK, BAA, AGQ, CDE, respectively .

Note I touched not any of my ANV or SLW, or IAG or RGLD, EGO or PAAS or any of my “core group.”    The reason is the Stairway to Heaven I’ve seen appearing in the charts, particularly the silver commodity’s chart.  First the weekly:

Yes, that’s our eighth week of “steady Eddy” up move we’re witnessing there.   And yet, look at how boringly stair step it seems… almost as if it is some kind of controlled move.  

It looks almost as boring — and maybe alarming — on the daily charts.   Behold:

Not a whole heckuva a lot of pullback in that stairway, eh?  That’s what’s kind of freaking me out from two angles.  First, this is not a “parabolic move” but rather a slow stair-step.  It’s highly unusual for such a volatile metal.  And before you start getting crazy about silver’s tiny market (true), the recent gold commodity charts look exactly like this as well.

It’s almost like someone gave a signal in August that it was time to swap shit dollars — ever so quietly and surreptitiously, like a cafeteria thief replacing roast turkey slices with wedges of liverwurst on all the whole grain wheat sandwich bread — for beautiful ingots of silver and gold.

This action gives me pause, even though I took some mighty profits today in the more volatile PM’s  (I also sold half my shitty BBT position, and trimmed or got rid of some outliers like JAH, KFN and a little VECO). 

This could be traders slowly covering short positions, I guess, in which case, we should ready for a strong pullback, as I’ve noted.   However, this could also be the precursor, the yeast in the bread dough, so to speak, of the parabolic move that I do expect later on this year or in the Spring. 

So we will wait and see, with bated breath, whether Christmas comes early this year… or right… on…. time!

Best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REYOJDANQ0k 450 300]

(Remember when Kanye was witty?)

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We’ve finally done it…  we’ve broken into “free air” on the Miner’s Chart — the venerable $HUI Gold Bugs Index.   Come see it for yourself:

I did a lot of things today in celebration of our free air moment.   First, I covered quite a few of my hedges in ANV and SLW and GDX, some at a loss some at break even.  The ANV was particularly egregious, but we’ll try not to dwell on that.  I still have about a 20% hedge on SLW and about 30% of ANV still hedged.   You’ll note the overbought stochastics and relative strength indicators on the above chart, I’m sure.  That’s my reason for retaining a little hedge.

But let’s not kid ourselves, the dollar is busted, and headed all the way to Target #4 without even a passing “hey howaya?” to Target #3.  Cheggitout:

Sure, we may get a little bounce at $77, but look at what happened after that last bounce.   No, I think the dollar is dead as Jacob Marley on burnt toast.

So please, get out of any silly short positions you may be contemplating “holding out” for.  There’s far more easy hunting out there than going after an Alaskan grizzly with a plastic butter knife.

In addition to releasing most of my hedges today, I also doubled down on an initial IAG long call position (DEC $17.50’s) at $1.60 a piece today.  My original purchase of 80 was at 90 cents each.   I expect IAG to be over $20 before Santa arrives.   I also added a touch more EXK, which was gluttonous of me.  I now own more of that than I even do SLW, though the share price is lower.

Of course, I think EXK will be the next SLW, so there’s a method to my sleep deprived madness.  I also really like RGLD here, and it looks like it’s ready to launch once again.  

My best to you, and to yours.

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Can you handle it?

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Not as well known a ditty as “Red sun at night, sailor’s delight,” but far more remunerative.  

First, my apologies for not being able to interact last night save by teeny tiny Crackberry screen, which after a day of meetings off-site (I am on the coast now), left my weary eyes strained.   I’ve never actually attempted to post from a hand-held device, save for comments, and I’m wondering if any of my fellow bloggers have. 

No matter, I’m here briefly to let you know we are at an inflection point, in case you haven’t noticed.  The dollar has broken some significant support levels at $82, and I think it’s next stop — and quickly there- will be $80.   I think old Ben has finally gone and done it and broken the bank.  Your only respite will be equities an precious metals in the near term.   For the long term it will be only the latter, I’m afraid. 

In the meantime, as it always seems to happen, I am enjoying “large phallused gains” in almost every category of my holdings, but none more so than the precious, and specifically silver and gold.   One of my correspondants was wondering about possibly putting on some more IAG exposure for the short term rebound.  Now would be that time, young chappo. 

Also, all the silver gods and dogs should move today and through this expansion as silver has easily crushed the $20 resistance mark and is now back on its way to all time highs.  I may take this opportunity to add some leverage to my holding through some DEC call action on SLW.  I may add also to some “permanent options” like EXK and GSS.

In short, the PM’s are like fat, slow blind juicy turkeys out there and you are armed with a blunderbuss on the third week of November.  Go forth pilgrim, and pacify.

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