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Sorry for the Tardy…

Tardy

Yer Late, ya bastid!
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Things have been ripping around here, as the overstretched band of “no bidness” that plagued us for the first six months of the year has snapped back with a vengeance to “too much bidness.”

I am not crapping you, we are hiring right now, as we just hauled in about five new deals in the last month.   Now I’ve got to actually execute them which is going to stretch me thin all the way into Christmas.

Luckily, my portfolio is largely set.   I will nacker about here and there, but you know my thesis of “Baby $HUI to the Christmas Tree,” ovah heah, and I shall not stray much from it.

Right now, one of my favourite plays — Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] looks to be ripping into the close, and the price of silver ($17.71 right now)  is hardly wavering even as the price of gold takes a mini-step back ($1,049.00).

Remember that Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] target fibonacci extension I put up a few weeks back after it’s breakout?  I said it would hit $10.70, remember?  Well, that worked out well, as it’s there and past, and I would look at that $10.70 area as a nice place to pick up some more shares of ANV, which is quickly becoming one of my favourites (sic)  — Jacksonian even.

Last, my beloved, if neglected Jacksonian stalwart, [[TBT]] .    I still own a metric shit tonne of this, even though I sold a bunch in the high 50’s some months back, thinking I’d buy back on a retrace. 

 Well, I was waiting for it to hit that $44.90 fibonacci level we had discussed, and it breached even that  so I said “ok, I’ll wait.”

I should have just bot some there, or at least averaged down.   Now, I’m doing a bit of a chase, and will attempt to refill my love gourds on a subsequent (hoped for) pullback to the $45.50’s area.

That is all for now, but if you want to discuss specific charts, I can throw them up this weekend at your request.  

Back to the salt mines.

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Checking in on Baby $HUI Again

neverunderestimate1

Let the above visial metaphor serve you as caution both political and market-noteworthy.  And I would rather put the emphasis, if I could, less on any proposed lack of intelligence and more — as in this particular case — on a plethora of emotional overload.

I think we’ve all been conditioned since the dawn of the Modern Era to be less disciplined about our emotions and how we allow them to guide our better judgment.  Therefore I don’t derisively dismiss those who would choose a relative unknown, a blank slate — a cypher, even — over “more of the same” after years of increasingly partisan turmoil, economic upheaval and yes, war.  I don’t even calumnize those who would, with less than optimum due diligence, usher such a person in under the auspices of emotionally laden, even heartfelt notions of “change” and “renewal.”

However,  I do applaud those for whom the fugue is beginning to lift. 

A similar sense of euphoria has been brought up short recently, this time in our gold and silver metals and corresponding miners markets.  Despite my many assurances that the treacherous bull of the last nine years would careen about tossing off weak adherents like so many loosely tied marionettes, many are still appalled and even frightened by the pullback we’ve experienced over the last week.

That, however, is an example of the very psychosis of secular bulls.

Like mad men at the mazurka, secular bulls will make you dance for every penny, and some days you will dance your feet raw.  Sell calls, my friends — or take some positions down to a more manageable level if it’s worth your good sleep.  God knows, some nights it’s worth mine. 

Note my [[$HUI]] chart below for clues:

hui_weekly

We may bounce here at the $400 breakout, or we may take the $HUI all the way back to the 61.8% fib retrace at just below $380. I am prepared for both scenarios, and I would suggest you gird your loins for both as well.  As for market specific stocks, I like Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] tomorrow, off a bounce of the 50-day, which has served as strong support for a while.   That would be approximately $8.73.

My best to you all.

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Don’t Get Too Cocky…

After all, this is why we are socking away wins for a rainy day:

deficit

So yeah, the Jacksons (up a collective 36.5% since May 1st as of today’s close) may be doing egregious “loaves and fishes” type miracles with your cash pile, but let’s keep our nose to the grindstone, as you’ll need that dough when a ham on rye, hold the mustard sets you back $36.25.

Remember we are all about dollar destruction here.   Take a look at that chart and ask yourself if the Congress and the Fed are going to support that kind of spending (not to mention the huge Medicare and Soc Sec liabilities) via the good old fashioned “belt tightening” of increased taxation and spending cuts?  

As they say in Texas, “No, hail no.”

So let’s be opportunistic and remember that there will be pullbacks in these metals, but that we need to manage our positions to maximize cash flow in this critical period.   For me that means selling calls at critical junctures, and even trimming the sails to raise cash from time to time.  If I’m reading things right, however, you are in for a bumpy, but enjoyable continuing ride here.

Keep in mind Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] has broken to new highs yet again, and Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] remains a favourite pick.   I may take some leverage (ie, bot calls) off the table in Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] soon, as it’s run faster than it’s brother silvers by far, with over 66.8% returns since May 1st inception, while [[PAAS]] and Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] are only at 43.5% and 29.2% respectively.   I think SSRI especially will gain from here. 

On the junior level [[EXK]] continues to be a junior trooper, and I continue with a leveraged position in [[CDE]] as well, because of the acute lack of overhead.  I also own Hecla Mining Company [[HL]]

On the gold side, IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] remains the monster of the pack, with 85.8% returns since inception, but I’d look for a pullback here before jumping in.   Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] and Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] still look like they can pack punch here, however, so keep an eye out on them and yesterday’s mention Gold Fields Limited (ADR) [[GFI]] .  

 Last, non-PM Monsanto Company [[MON]] grabbed back some ground today but continues to be undervalue in the Jacksonian sphere.   Still a “grandkids pick.”   The Andersons, Inc. [[ANDE]] –up over 106.5%  since Jackson inception — is still our leader, and looking for $39 as it’s next “achievment.”

I’ll have more tomorrow, but let’s shut it down with a veritable classic from my youth.   Share it with a favored son of daughter, and it’s likely they’ll never forget it:

  [youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7tQVEEPWv0 450 300]

Slange.

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What I Gots foah Yez

seller

Real quick, I added to two positions today.  First,  Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] :  Probably my favourite (sic) non-Jacksonian.   It’s pulling back here nicely, and I think getting set to take off, as evidenced by strong closing  volume today:

anvdaily

Note what I did with the Fibo’s on this one? Sometimes, I try to “project” a target by aligning the strong fibonacci levels with a support or resistance line. In this case, I’ve put the 38.2% retrace line (it would have to be a “future retrace” of course) right at the bottom of the congestion zone created by the price-volume bar (green box). If this method is near accurate, we should top out of this next blast off at around $10.70. Let’s see if I’m correct.

Also, I bot my favourite (sic) African continent gold play Gold Fields Limited (ADR) [[GFI]] . Luckily, I’ve already saved this one:

gfi_daily

I just love that pretty picture, and added more today at $14.19.  Perhaps a little early, but I’m not too concerned with this one long term.

Last, we cannot ignore earl, and my latest hot shot stock in the development area Parallel Petroleum Corporation [[PLLL]] :

(Update: I’m not going to post the PLLL chart as it’s busted out and looked to be capped at the current buyout price of $3.15 or so. Good job if you were quick like Chanci and got some right away.)

Also watch Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] which has been rambling since we last spoke, and could be trade bait at this juncture.    [[EXK]] also looks like it’s ready to start moving again.    Best to you.

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Gloria in Excelsis Jackson

Jackson 

Again, there’s no need for braggadocio.  It’s too early yet.

Let’s just recognize that there will be pullbacks, perhaps as soon as this week.   Those pullbacks may take the form of consolidations, or real live gut-rippers like we experienced in rocket ship IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] last Friday.   Take a look at my notes on the Jacksons for further guidance. 

Important to note, however, that we’ve broken out of the long term triangle on the $HUI, and out of the recent June highs, with a close over $409 on Friday.   Next targets are $475 and the old highs of $525.   I am firmly convinced we’ll see both those levels well before Christmas.  This should drive the Jacksons for the remainder of the year, and I think there’s ample room for continued participation here.

Remember this chart from a couple of days back? 

hui_daily

Well, look where we’ve come in two short weeks:

hui_daily1

My favourite (sic) non-Jacksons include Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]]  and Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]] on the gold side and [[CDE]] and [[EXK]] on the silver.   I really like the free air on the CDE side.   It could go to the low forties with very little resistance now that it’s broken out of it’s May closing highs.

Here’s the weekly Jackson review… note the monthly is higher than the weekly in this first week of September, because August 31’st was such a down day for many Jacksons.

Name/     %   Portfolio Portfolio     
Ticker 28-Aug 4-Sep Change   Value Impact   Comments
ANDE  $        32.92  $      32.34 -1.76%    $             9,764 -0.10%   Still looking for the break of $33. Soon!
EGO            10.56          11.21 6.16%    $           10,504 0.39%   $11.50 is BTFO target
GDX            40.18          45.02 12.05%    $           13,626 0.98%   Look for pullback this week. BO>$45.25
GLD            93.87          97.53 3.90%    $           11,217 0.26%   Looking for $100.
IAG            12.02          13.84 15.14%    $           17,065 1.55%   In BTFO territory, and consolidating BO.
MON            83.00          82.24 -0.92%    $           13,047 -0.07%   Coiling on low volume
PAAS            19.99          22.45 12.31%    $           13,483 0.99%   BO out of triangle. Pullback level – 21.50
RGLD            39.95          45.98 15.09%    $           12,705 1.15%   Massive two day BO.  Next target $48.65
SLV            14.50          15.97 10.14%    $           12,973 0.79%   Broke weekly DT, over 15.75 resistance
SLW            10.45          11.59 10.91%    $           11,258 0.74%   Massive BO.  Next target $14.
SSRI            18.28          21.09 15.37%    $           12,269 1.13%   Needs $21.50 for BO level
TBT            46.74          47.70 2.05%    $             9,502 0.12%   Bounced from $45 low, now over $47.20 again
TC            11.98          11.89 -0.75%    $             9,787 -0.04%   May have bottomed at $11
TCK            25.20          24.36 -3.33%    $           23,505 -0.47%   May have bottomed at $22.05
Cash (000)  $        0.00  $    12.64 0.01%    $         12,644 0.00%   Same
AVG (weekly)   5.67%    $       193,350 7.41%    
AVG (monthly)   7.88%   Actual cash       
AVG (inception)   32.81%   on cash return 28.90%    

Best to you this week, and watch for pullbacks!

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Just a Faithful Reminder… The “O.J.”

Jeff

I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.
Thomas Jefferson, – “O.J.” — the Original Jackson (Attributed)
3rd president of US (1743 – 1826)

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With this quote in mind, I want to again call to your attention that we are approaching the “August to Christmas” gold run, which generally includes a concurrent run in the gold and silver miners, as represented by the [[HUI]] index.   Almost every year in the oughts since 2000 has reflected this run, save of course last year, when we experienced a 28% loss due to a mass liquidation of all assets.

As reflected in the 2007 portion of the following chart, you can see the $HUI broke over 67% in the August to December period.   Note that a return to the old highs ($525) would only require a 44% run from these levels.

hui_weekly

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I believe we should see a relatively rapid progression when this thing gets moving — from $375 to the June highs (about $405) and then very possibly back to our pre-crash ’08 old highs in the $525 area.  That kind of progression in the $HUI should mean good things for all of our precious Jacksons, including Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] ,IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] , our leveraged royalty play in Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] and our gold ETF [[GDX]] whose $34 strike options I purchased last week for September expiry.

A strong $HUI will mean even better things for the silver Jacksons, as the price of gold is still well over the historic 40x silver “norm” at nearly 65x today.   Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] is my number one pick in this space, but  [[PAAS]] and even relative laggard Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] should be strong in this coming period.

As for non-Jacksons, I still like Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] despite the recent dilution, and Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] , Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]] and [[BAA]] all look good from the junior gold side, and of course [[EXK]]   and [[CDE]] on the silver side.   I will also throw Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] out as a possibility because it tends to jump in “hot” precious markets.   Be warned, however, this last is a “trade only” position, and not one to keep even one day past its expiration date. 

If you want to buy and hold, stick with the Jacksons and a well diversified pool of juniors… one or two of those will be “lotto tickets” and the rest will be largely crap, but you will be happy for the lotto wins nonetheless. 

No excuses, ladies and gents.  It’s “sarious” (sic) time.  See you at the finish line.
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I know I haven’t given you a Jacksonian update in a while, so here’s last week’s results.  Note the bludgeoning in Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] due to the UBS (curse them) “bought deal” which means a “sold short” deal to those who are already holders.  No matter, once this overhead is sopped up, TC will move again, as will Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] .  Get these while they are cheap.

Name/     %   Portfolio Portfolio     
Ticker 21-Aug 28-Aug Change   Value Impact   Comments
ANDE  $        28.20  $      32.92 16.74%    $             9,940 1.00%   Big volume leap Friday. $33 is break.
EGO            11.02          10.56 -4.17%    $             9,895 -0.25%   Riding 20-day (10.49) on coil now.
GDX            39.30          40.18 2.24%    $           12,161 0.16%   Moving out of consolidation zone (>$40)
GLD            93.65          93.87 0.23%    $           10,796 0.02%   Coming out of coil as well, needs $95.50
IAG            11.93          12.02 0.75%    $           14,821 0.07%   Looks to test new highs (12.36+) this wk.
MON            83.78          83.00 -0.93%    $           13,168 -0.07%   Stuck between 20 and 200 day EMA’s.
PAAS            19.52          19.99 2.41%    $           12,006 0.17%   Breaking out of EMA coils (20/50/200)
RGLD            39.50          39.95 1.14%    $           11,039 0.08%   Closed above 200 day but lagging peers.
SLV            13.92          14.50 4.17%    $           11,779 0.29%   Nice leap on volume Friday, targ: $16.04
SLW              9.37          10.45 11.53%    $           10,150 0.70%   Nice move Friday, over $11 = free air.
SSRI            18.24          18.28 0.22%    $           10,634 0.01%   Still lagging all MA’s, and peers.
TBT            49.55          46.74 -5.67%    $             9,311 -0.32%   Broke below 38.2% fib @ 47.20, 44.90 target
TC            14.29          11.98 -16.17%    $             9,861 -0.96%   Massive dilution effect from secondary
TCK            26.73          25.20 -5.72%    $           24,315 -0.83%   RSI turning back up again, could be time.
Cash (000)  $        8.63  $    12.64 0.01%    $         12,644 0.00%   Added another $4k+ with final NRP sale
AVG (weekly)   0.40%    $       182,520 0.07%    
AVG (monthly)   9.91%   Actual cash       
AVG (inception)   25.14%   on cash return 21.68%    

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