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Things just keep getting more and more peachy around here.   On Friday, as I revealed yesterday, I threw caution to the wind and grabbed a whole lot of miner and double ETF picks that I had a feeling would make a strong move this week.  Today I was rewarded for that Erroll Flynn-ish type of move not only by a strong move in the precious metal sector, but also a bonus Eagle loss to a team they should never lose to if they believe themselves contenders this year (sorry Bears fans).

Especially not at home.

That puts my Giants three games ahead of the “Dream Team” Beagles, albeit with three tough games still ahead of them (and one in the rear view mirror in Gilette Stadium -heh!).  There’s more than serendipity at work here, methinks…

Could it be the Turkey Gods are blessing us all in advance?  It’s quite possible, especially when you look at the evidence available in the $HUI — an index which up to now has been quite vexatious to those of us who trade “the original coin.”

But look what the weekly is telling us now… not only are we breaking out over old levels, but it looks like this time we’ve ample time left in the run.  Check out these stochastics on the $HUI weekly —

 

That’s right, we’re near the famed “$610 Maginot Line,” again, and with adequate momentum to take those levels out with aplomb.  And we all know that breakouts beget breakouts, don’t we?

So grab your favorite gold miner or royalty financier (RGLD!) or even multi-varied ETF (GDX, SIL, GDXJ), because I think there’s more fun to come.

I may even grab some NUGT tomorrow if I can squeeze some time out of my fire extinguishing duties.

No rest for the weary Gentlemen (and Ladies).   I will see you all around the coyne shoppes.

Best to you all.

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Welcome to your dead cat bounce, dollar bulls!  Thanks to manic Japanese Central Bankers, the dollar index is soaring this evening.   Don’t underestimate these deadly serious Nipponese, they know where their bread is buttered.  It’s on the export toast of their choosing, hopefully in the form of Sonys, Toyotas and Nintendo Wiis for your flabby American children.  And for that reason they will try to cheapen the Yen as much as physically possible against the gossamer U.S. buck, which is being issued like so much Greek toilet paper to the free world, in the off chance that it might absorb some of the debt poison that’s infected the globe.

Quite a trick for the Japanese, no? Their problem is that, although a debtor nation,like their profligate friends in America, their debt is largely held “in house” by a large group of Japanese washerwomen who wouldn’t think of selling their .01% returning Japanese postal bonds, lest the Emperor be shamed and have to silence the lot of them, bushido-style.

As an aside, this reminds me of when I was getting my MBA in New England in the 90’s.  We had about 20 Japanese (bankers, mostly) students who were being paid to attend my school.  At the time, the Yen was trading at 88 to the dollar.  Geezus did those fuckers live high on the hog!  In between swilling copious amounts of bourbon (you trying to land a Japanese client? Bring mucho Makers Mark), they would go on egregious trips to Egypt and Malaysia, and wherever fuck all they wanted to go — usually with their wives (they were almost all married).  Meanwhile, poor American dopes like myself spent the rest of our bonuses on tuition and textbooks, usually racking up some serious debt along the way.  Sure a couple of us were lucky enough to get our tuition’s paid for as well, but no one got paid like these Japanese dudes.

Meanwhile, today the Yen is trading at about 75 to the dollar (79 as of tonight’s intervention).  Gives you some pause doesn’t it?  Screw “Occupy Wall Street” — those fuckers are losing their jobs.  Howabout “Occupy the Dartmouth Green/Harvard Square/U Penn Quad?”  Let’s get some back from these Japanese MBA blighters who can now afford to take at least a dozen hippies out for sushi a night.

That is, if they haven’t left for Cairo on Fall Break already…

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Listen up, something’s going on.  I had — no joke — one of the most prolific weeks of my life last week.  I’ve been working all weekend.  When I get done with this, I’ve a book to mark up.  I may get a sliver of sleep tonight — Dangerous Monsieur le Docteur-style.

What caused everyone and his uncle to decide to pull the trigger last week?  Was it some sort of manic Golden Ratio confluence ?  I don’t know, but I am right now busier than a Jehovah’s Witness at an atheistic pimping conference.   I will try to attend to you, I promise, and please, forward as many questions as you can through the comments section.  One warning — I will be out of the country starting Thursday and through about Tuesday of the following week.  I will try to log on and give you updates as best I can.  No promises, however.

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Here’s the deal.  The dollar is bouncing and I guess we should expect that.   Do we drive back above $76.20 or so, and thereby violate the breakdown of last week?  I really don’t think so, but we should be prepared for volatility here.  I think it’s important to get back into the PM’s here, even if we are in drawback mode.  From a monetary standpoint the world is getting nervous, and that leads me to believe in the commodities, especially silver and gold.

And you know I love miners, and I’ve noted a few.  Can I leave you with a high risk but potentially high reward junior that I’ve liked for some time?   BAA has been percolating for some time, and I thank my Democrat friend Teahouse for the recommendation of its monthly chart… If there’s one thing a longer term chart will give you, it’s perspective.

Here’s what I think is the play on BAA, but feel free to choose any of your favorite under-$5 juniors (AAU for example) for similar analyses:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

My best to you all this week.

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Sit, Midas, Stay!
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I was away on business in outer Lobos Lobovia today (somewhere in the untracked wilds of the Midwest), when I received a cell phone text from my dog, Midas (above).   She’s been trained to faithfully call me whenever I’m away from the screen and there’s a significant opportunity in the precious metals… especially the miners.   She’s to do this no matter how busy I am, and mein gott have I been busy.   Still, she has her training… so…

“Roof!” She said, “roof, urf, roof!”   Loosely translated, this meant “buy MVG,” but that’s of little consequence when you could have bought anything in the PM sector today (save maybe PAAS) and you’d have made a crop of coin.  So who says dogs are smart, right?

Anyway, MVG was up 6% including after hours today.  AAU was up 12.7% today.  Guess what wasn’t up so much today?  If you said “BAA” you get a prize.  It was flat most of the day, only to trade up a shade under 3% in after hours.   Can you guess what I’m going to be buying tomorrow, time allowing?

My dog Midas knows.

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Again, my apologies for being away from you, friends.  It’s truly been one of the busiest weeks I’ve had since I was a gruntling analyst fresh out of my white shoe training program.  And shit, it’s only Wednesday.

That news in itself should be somewhat indicative to you.  Money is moving people, on both sides of the balance sheet.

Given this pace, I may not even make it to the weekend.   So if I don’t, let me share my outlook.  I think we should be aware we could be on the cusp of a cataclysmic move in the PM’s.   The dollar has broken that support at $76, and as I type it’s at $75.89 on the index.   Gold has responded, and is above $1700 again.  I think we’re on the way back up, and am cautiously adding to my piles as time allows.

Silver’s been something of a laggard, but I may take advantage of that by adding to my AG and EXK tomorrow.  If my readings are correct, we’ve still a ways to go in those names.   I may even indulge in some AGQ.  Juniors in the gold sector should also be considered.  Grab GDXJ if you don’t want to choose.   Take care, and I will try and drop in on you tomorrow.

Best to you all.

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I made good on my threats today, and took everything down to the 30% level on my personal accounts. 

I was up an average of almost 5% across a number of different portfolios and I finally said “enough is enough.”   I am keeping 30% invested, with the equal expectation that we could hit a precipitous downdraft in the precious metal sector at any time, just as we could shoot past $2,000 gold in an eye-blink.  

I care no more, as at this point risk avoidance has become very important to me.  If that means I miss the next $200 in gold on 70% of my portfolio, well so be it.   It’s very possible we could see a break past $50 in silver as well, and again, I’ll have no nonsense from any of you about it.   Really, I mean it.  Just shut up now.

And yes, that means I sold large chunks of AAU, AG, AUY, ANV, EGO, EXK, GDX, GDXJ, GG, MVG, NG, NGD, NXG, PAAS, RGLD, SIL and even beloved SLW.

And I blew out the rest of my NUGT as well.

And no, I am not abandoning the PM’s as a theme now, and won’t abandon them should they continue to skyrocket in flight to many more afternoon delights this late summer.   I am willing to wait for them, however, and to examine “other areas” whilst they frolic about like mad sturgeon on lady’s night at the Aquarium.

One of those “other areas” includes my old friend, Mr. Skiffles — SKF.  Along with his rebrobrate alchoholic brother, FAZ-tard, I believe Mr. Skiffles will be getting some nice exercise this second half of the year.  One of the reasons is the behavior of BAC, and now, most recently, the troubles of GS, and it’s Waspy rival MS.  

Another is the critical structural problems of Europe erupting again like plague boils on the carcass of its major banks.  This is a contagion that may yet again bolt across the Atlantic and may even explain the impolite selling vigor in some of our larger institutions.  Will the Fed be there to save their lying souls once again? 

Too big to fail, you say?   Maybe, but while “fail” might rhyme with “bail,” I wouldn’t be too sure equity holders won’t be left holding an empty bucket this time around.  Be warned, friends, storms approach.

Peace be upon you.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7x60uLIfHJk 450 300]

Classic Dawg

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Beaten, bludgeoned, and swallowed by an African Rock Python (only to be regurgitated, and then beaten again), I stand before you gob-smacked and riven.  I’ve been selling off in drips and drabs this week, in anticipation of a pullback in the gold market, and a lesser refrain in the silvers.   I guess I should feel relieved I got rid of some exceptionally over-weighted positions in some super-volatiles like AAU and AG.

I had even  sold some RGLD yesterday — ever so reluctantly.   It’s a testament to the kind of day I had when my losses in RGLD were some of the lowest of the day at a mere 4.54%.   Many of my juniors were in the 10%+ loss range, with my beloved EXK leading the pack of ass-biters at a loss of over 14% by day’s end.  In the end, I guess I feel a bit lucky that — thanks to my increased cash proportions and my tiny hedges on SLW — I only lost a tad more than 7% for the day.

But let’s not kid ourselves, this was a shock and a murder, and I left myself vulnerable when I should have been hedging.   I know now that when my “Spider Senses” are tingling enough to make me want to cut back on some heavier positions, I should take that cue to hedge out more of the portfolio at the same time with at least sold calls.

Looking at the longer term charts in gold and silver it’s still difficult to say whether or not we are going to feel the great sucking sound again on the miners or whether we will bounce out of this dreadful day.  In some cases — RGLD for instance — we haven’t even filled gaps yet from earlier in this week.  What’s more, it looked like it could consolidate at these mid 60’s levels for a bit longer.

As for yesterday’s purchases, they were all unmitigated disasters — especially BWA — the Borg.   I’d thought I was a bit early there, and sure ‘n hell if I wasn’t. I was down well over 7% in that “toe dip” position, so I thank Jupiter’s Stone that I “went small” in the initial buy.  UPS was also down a bit over 3%, but I think the franchise name held that company up today.

Bollinger Crash Trade candidates were all over the decking today, but I think the tastiest may be the Emerging Market i-Shares play, EEM, whose twin, VWO, was the largest “buying on weakness” name today, according to the Wall Street Journal.   I believe I shall be taking advantage of that one tomorrow, for the pop play.

Off to go drown my sorrows in a half gallon jug of Hugh Hendry Blue Label Gin & Jooce (sic).

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As I sit here inside my famous Maine homestead, on the end of a sea-bounded rocky egg surrounded by pines, raccoons, osprey, snowy egret, billions of tonnes of mesomorphic and granitic stone, and sluggish black mosquitoes as big as your head, know that I’m thinking of you all fondly.

Today I kayaked all the way out to a remote island in the middle of the bay with my two older sons and a cousin of theirs.  I was extremely proud to see them make it on what was a more arduous journey than we first conceived.  It sort of makes one feel all the tonnes and tonnes of extraneous food they are now consuming is going to some good use in the gradual addition of competent sinew and bone.  Be advised, however, the grocery bill on vacation, fueled by noshing and boozing adults and teenage boys exposed to the brisk northern air can look like the tally for a small air force base under battle ready conditions.

And that’s not even counting the “going out to dinner” tabs.   I think I am going to insist on summer jobs from here on out.

Don’t expect much from me this week, churlish churls.  I’ll  not be like the Monsieur le Fly, regaling you with tales of Amish cow-tipping and such.  No, you’ll be lucky to get the occasional report these next two weeks.  I don’t expect to be doing much in the market save banquing coyne (sic), as it seems the PM run is going to continue whether I’m in front of my screen or not.

I’ve given you several names over the last couple of weeks, and I think the small ones will provide much bang for the buck (AAU, BAA, CGR and BRD particularly).   There are a couple that I will be watching very closely, however, as their longer term chart patterns are appealing to me.  Let’s start with AUQ, which I haven’t spoken much about:

I think there will be some pullbacks in the weeks ahead and I think these are your best bets, long term, on some kind of a retrenchment.  AUQ has just had an awesome consolidation period.   So has has the crazy Japanese Man, Yamana (AUY), which may have the biggest saucer pattern of the PM Renaissance Era.  Tell me you don’t see something happening here?

 

And it’s not like AUY’s chart’s indications couldn’t be any clearer…  in fact, I think in the end, you will see AUY do what RGLD is doing right now as we speak.  Do you own the Grandmama of them all?   If not, it’s not for lack of my nagging….

Be well, and don’t let the big ass black mosquitoes bite.

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