Joined Apr 19, 2009
721 Blog Posts

Going to Turkey

Fez man

I’ve got on meeting with yet another fast moving tech company in the morning (innovation yet lives, even in these dire times) and then I’m off to Noo Yawk for Turkish Festivities.

I’m bringing my fez and all my kids.   I may not however, bring all of them back.   It just depends on the float action in the Macy’s T-Day Parade.   If they are slow moving enough… well…

Besides the Parade, which is a family tradition for my Mom from long before I was born, we will do touron things for which I used to laugh at people  back when I was a young Puck.   Odd how these things come ’round, no?

We will visit Teddy Roosevelt’s Sagamore Hill House in Oyster Bay.   We will go see Cirque de Soleil’s Wintuk, just because it’s “for the kids.”   It will be “most ghey.”

We will have Turkish Dinner (or “Pilgrim’s Repast” as they like to call it in Milford, MA)  and many many bottles of premium California cabernets at my Uncle & Aunt’s house in the Aye Bee.  It’s usually quite epic.  

Likely, I will only have time to communicate with you through evening post and the occasional Crackberry aside.  I think you’ll make it through.    Looks like tomorrow should be relatively pleasant, and I hope everyone remains in good cheer.     

Keep your grandmamaw’s close, now.   Hear?


Comments »

Going Full Eeyore


He was Emo when Emo wasn’t cool.
Stubbornly and like an ass, I sold continuously throughout  the day.    

In drips and drabs of course, but it becomes cumulative after a while.   Frankly, I don’t know how Docteur Le Fly does it.   It seems like one day he’s fully invested and then — BOOM! — He’s 60% in cash.

It doesn’t even seem to faze him.

I, on the other hand, agonize on every share sold in a rising market, even as I know deep down in my medulla oblongata (sic), it must be done.  I am at a little more than 25% cash right now and I feel as if I’ve been scourged on the wheel for a fortnight.

Perhaps I shall cut out that nasty M.O. and be shrived of my cognitive dissonance sins at last.  Who needs motor function anyway? I can always blog at you via sophisticated “eye-blink” technology, right?

Onto the shriving.   Needless to say, I bought nothing today, despite the ambulatory nature of such Ag Gems as Jacksonians The Andersons, Inc. [[ANDE]] and Monsanto Company [[MON]] , which finally broke back over the $80 barrier.    You remember the old Fly-saying, yes?  “If it gets over $80, it’s going to $120?

We shall see.   I also like Intrepid Potash, Inc. [[IPI]] and Agria Corporation (ADR) [[GRO]] , but lower.

Sales today were across the board on the PM’s and I even took the time to sell off some odds and ends as well.

I sold some enormous Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] today — almost 30% of my stash, 4k at $13.12.     I also sold 2k shares of the enormous performer IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] , one third of my holdings in that name, for $18.85.    Sawing a hunk of my shoulder blade off would’ve been less painful.

Of my 6k shares of [[GDX]] I sold 2k outright at $50.18, and then hedged the remainder by selling March $50 calls at $5.25 a piece.

Taking a dull spoon to my eyes, I sold another 4k of Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] , and then hedged 7k of the remaining 11 by selling 70 March $16 calls at $1.90 and $2.00.     Perhaps talking about it here will assuage my pain? 

I sold 2k of [[PAAS]] at $24.68 and another stray K of Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] at $12.16, leaving me with 4 and 10k respectively.    What will you have of me next?  My children?

Oh my, I must have been putting this one out of my mind, as I’d almost forgotten… I also sold 8k of [[EXK]] today (40%!) at $3.68.  Arthur Koestler, I know your Darkness at Noon!

Last on the precious fronts, I sold 1.5k of [[CDE]] at $21.99 and $22.03, and 4k of Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] at $4.16.  

On the “odds and ends” front, I sold another 2k of [[BIOS]] at $7.68, leaving me with only 2k left, which I will not sell outside of Armegeddon, where I may need River Styx fare. 

I also sold 6k of Citigroup Inc. [[C]] for a rare loss (only a couple of pennies plus commish) on a complete “cautionary” basis.   I think I can buy those back cheaper, is all.    Last, I sold a stub amount (1k) of Sinovac Biotech Ltd. [[SVA]] which I’ve owned since the low $3 range, for $7.51.

Last, but not least, I booted the remainder of my [[ERX]] (1.5k) with the dividend pushout, at $38.46.

I am quite exhausted and on tenter-hooks, ovah heah, but I must trust my charts and instincts, or all is lost.   I am thinking we will see a correction at least into Turkey Week, as Tim Geithner and the Klown Kircus will be selling more yummy T-bonds into the maw of Mother Market whilst we prepare for Pilgrim Foods.

You know what that usually means by now, I expect.   If not, you have not been paying close attention, and are condemned to suffer the fate of Piglet during Swine Flu Saison (sic).    (Ostracism)

Best to you this weekend.   Off to see an Opera.


Addenda — if you haven’t already done so, be sure to ring up your block head Senator and tell him/her that this Obamacare is a train wreck waiting to happen.     It looks like Dirty Harry Reid and the Dem Senate are taking a page out of Madame Pelosi’s book of legerdemain and are going to try to jam this through in a Saturday Night Special.   If this were a good bill, of course they’d have no need to be so serpentine.



Comments »

Rubbing My Belly into the Close






What do you do with a market that won’t go down like this precious metal market will not?

You continue to take what it gives you, like a nice salami & provolone with banana peppers, and rub your belly into the close.

If you were wise enough to see the imminent destruction of the currency with the “Three Lemon Slot Machine Pull”  (POTUS, House & Senate) we ushered into office in November 2008,  you– my friendo — are sitting pretty right now.

Finally, you can afford all the best poodle grooming salons, and when you take your wife out to Chez Cherise you can order two rounds of Appletinis and there’s no talk of “Going Dutch” — practically ever.

You’ve grown so bold you’ve begun to get cheeky with Dr. Fly and starting throwing jibes his way over such nettles as Flotek and the teeny tiny coffee jug plays. 

Oh yes, you’re bold.

Well snap out of it!  The market doesn’t grow to the sky and three beanpoles do not a salad garden make! (Or something to that effect…)

Now is the time to harvest.  In fact, it’s beyond time.  You should be selling down at least a third of your stash as I have here.

Today I sold even more [[AGQ]] — another 1k shares at $68.05.   Just 600 shares left, sob.

I sold New Gold Inc. (USA) [[NGD]] — egregiously late as it turns out.  They announced  problems with the Mexican gov’t on one of their mines today and were punished like a thieving child. 

I took 60% of the position off (8k shares) at $3.74.   My over 50% gain in that stock melted down to 34.5%.   Que sera.  

I also took down a quarter of my NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) [[NG]] position at $5.33 (4k shares),  mostly because it had the same first two letters as the above loathesome NGD.   For some reason, I left Northgate Minerals Corporation (USA) [[NXG]] alone.

I guess I like X.

I did not touch [[EXK]] , Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]] or [[ERX]] today.

I enjoy things with X.

I also dumped about 15% of my Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]] today (2k shares) at $3.56.   Just shaving.  Just paring.  Just rebuilding the war chest.  

To that end, I sold one more thousand shares of Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] at $15.89.   I cried when I did it.  Fat, hot, soapy tears of real grief. 

In the odds and ends department, I launched the remainder of my OmniVision Technologies, Inc. [[OVTI]] , my Beazer Homes USA, Inc. [[BZH]] at $12.81 and $4.83 respectively.   

That’s a lot of trading for me.   My fingers are tired.  My cash horde is looming.  I am not gruntled.


Comments »

A Day Bittersweet

B-day boy

Happy Birthday to the Big Big Boy

Days like today are painful.

For instance, today my youngest is four. I go now to his natal festivities.

There’s nothing that says “looming mortality” than knowing that this one — your last for sure — is finally gone from babyhood. Next year, the little genius will be on his way to kinny-garten (sic), and the home will become a near-empty nest.

(Note to self — send the wife out a job-hunting.)

And so it goes, I guess, as we shuffle on towards the grave.

Today was also a meloncholy portfolio day. Yes, all my glorious precious metal plays remained strong and the recent string of steamer trunks full of cold hard cash continued to arrive like lost Titanic luggage in my accounts, much to the chagrin and further penury of the Palo Alto Bear Fund.

But I also continued to liquidate. Do you know how hard that is in this kind of rising metal environment? It’s damn hard. But it must be done, if I’m to fertilize further conquests with the renewable blessings of the Turkey Gods.

I sold another K of [[AGQ]] at $68.36. Only half a position left, there. I sold 4K of Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] — my favourite (sic)– at $15.93.   That was only 20% of my SLW stash, but still as painful as giving up a pinky finger to the Sawz-all Wars.

I launched the last 20 Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] December $16 calls at $5.75, and the last 20 Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] December $7.50’s at $4.70 each.

I also sold 5,000 shares of Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] at $12.18, leaving me 10K, and another 1,000 of Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] common at $21.61, leaving me with just 3k left.

I still have much to harvest and I may yet be late in doing so.   Such is the special sadness of the fiat farmer.

I am at over 12% cash on the entirety of the portfolio and much more in the PM portion.

I’m off to give a Big Boy presents. Best to you, and good night..


Comments »

The Turkey Gods Ask Sacrifice

Bow and give sacrifice!
You don’t think this cocaine and eggs party can go on forever do you?

Be serious. 

I sold a third of my [[AGQ]] today.   I got rid of the rest of my [[GDX]] calls.   I sold Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] calls.

I sheeved, I shrieved, I shucked.

Tomorrow, I’ll do more.

All things in good time.


Comments »

Silver Bears Belichick-Out

I knew I shouldn’t have shorted SLV!
Shorting silver in a plunging dollar market with gold on the move is almost as dumb as “going for it” on 4th and 2 on your own 28 , about two minutes to go and with the lead.

Heck, maybe it’s even more dumb. At least Belichick– with his multiple Lombardi Trophy mantle display– had an excuse to feel arrogant about his low-percentage play-calling. The silver bears, who were gold bears before that and stock bears before even that had no call to compound mistake after mistake by risking the last remnants of their capital on such an audacious call.

And now they are paying for it, or to be more incisive — paying me. [[AGQ]] which you recall I added when I heard that the “Reverse Lock” was shorting silver, is up another 1000 basis points this morning. I can’t imagine what that’s doing to the leveraged short ursines, but it’s gotta be something close to being drawn, quartered and then lightly salted/lightly peppered before being chucked on the grill, marbled T-bone style.

Amazingly, silver has decided to catch up to gold this morning, with an over one dollar move (price of silver is up $1.02 cents as I type this, or 5.9%) today, the silver to gold ratio now stands at a stunningly low 62x, down from 64x as of late last week.

Gee, I wonder if that move to rationality is going to continue (remember, gold is continuing to rise as well)?

You’ve seen this list before, but at the risk of boring you, go get ’em:

Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] [[PAAS]] [[EXK]] Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] [[CDE]] Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] And a new one I haven’t talked much about — [[SVM]] .

Don’t forget about the pure bullion plays either. [[SLV]] is one time and [[AGQ]] is two.

Happy hunting, and watch for pullbacks. We are parabolizing here, so I am talking off the rest of my call positions today.

Best to you all.
Addendum: Platinum is another precious metal in “catch up” mode. I’ve banged the drum on [[PTM]] enough times that you should have at least a little. This should be a continuing move, here, however. I am also considering, but have not yet bot [[PAL]] , which is a dodgy stock even in the best of times.

Comments »