Joined Apr 19, 2009
721 Blog Posts

The General Still Riding High

jackson horsed 

Not to get overly full of it (hah! me?), but the Jacksons are close to annual highs again.   What’s interesting is that most of the recent runup last week occurred on Friday, when the dollar took a significant downturn.   Now whether or not this is going to be a headfake or not should be apparent very quickly, I believe.

The only thing that gives me some pause is the [[TLT]] runup here.  I just can’t believe that lower discount won’t get a snapback here soon, and with it another pullback in the market.  Right now I continue to believe the  [[UUP]] will continue to weaken and $USD will head to its lows of $71 again.   

No need to mention, if the dollar does continue it’s retrace to the lows, the Jacksons and the other precious metals will continue to soar here.  As usual, I like the silvers, but of the non-Jacksons, Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]] is the “most ready,” and Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , [[BAA]] , and Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (USA) [[IVN]] look tastiest on the gold junior side.

Happy hunting this week. 

Name/   %   %   Portfolio Portfolio     
Ticker 24-Jul Change 31-Jul Change   Value Impact   Comments
ANDE  $       30.99    $      32.22 3.97%    $       9,728 0.23%   Over $32 new highs!  Bounced off 20-day
EGO             9.27            10.00 7.87%    $       9,370 0.44%   Huge day on Friday, should cont.
GDX           39.90            39.77 -0.34%    $     12,035 -0.02%   Another big hop on Friday.
GLD           93.41            93.35 -0.06%    $     10,736 0.00%   Lifting off  20 and 50 day here.
IAG           11.11            10.56 -4.95%    $     13,021 -0.39%   Also lifting off 20 & 50 day.
MON           84.16            84.00 -0.19%    $     13,327 -0.02%   Over 200 day still.
NRP           23.00            23.45 1.96%    $       4,867 0.06%   200 day @ 23.70, bo @ $24
PAAS           19.68            19.71 0.15%    $     11,838 0.01%   Launching through 20/50/200
RGLD           41.78            41.08 -1.68%    $     11,351 -0.11%   Above 200, testing 50 day
SLV           13.66            13.70 0.29%    $     11,129 0.02%   Also launched Friday, big move
SLW             9.23              9.18 -0.54%    $       8,917 -0.03%   Over 20/50/200 again.
SSRI           20.08            19.67 -2.04%    $     11,443 -0.14%   Over 20/50/200 again.
TBT           53.19            49.43 -7.07%    $       9,847 -0.42%   $48 looks likely
TC           14.75            14.55 -1.36%    $     11,976 -0.10%   Coming out of pullback here.
TCK           24.49            26.29 7.35%    $     17,480 0.77%   Just a monster. 
Cash (000)  $     16.89    $    16.89 0.01%    $   16,891 0.00%   Same as last week no new buy/sells
AVG (weekly)     0.20%    $ 183,957 0.30%    
AVG (monthly)     9.85%   Actual      
AVG (inception)   23.07%   Return 22.64%    

Comments »

Thar’s Gold in Them Thar Hills!


Dang, I should be out of the office more often. Looks like the “Dollah Dollah Bill Y’awl” prediction  I made yesterday is staying true and we are continuing to see a break down in the much beknighted green back– [[UUP]] .

The dollar’s breakdown is causing a “so sorry” event for bears, but a “yippe kai yi yeah, muthaflickah” event for those of us in the precious metal camp. What’s ironic is that the bears are correct — the only thing keeping this market going right now is the craptastic dollar. In other words, it’s not “real” value but “inflated value” that’s driving stocks upward. What is doubly ironic is that bears will short this market thinking that the dollar will strengthen.

Very odd.

We’re here to make money so let me throw out some picks that are looking good. First — the junior golds, which on the Jackson side include only Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] , which is my strongest Jackson today. Non Jacksonian juniors I like, and will mention again are Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] (which is breaking out as I type this), Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]] , [[BAA]] , NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) [[NG]] and Northgate Minerals Corporation (USA) [[NXG]] on the gold side and Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[CDE]] and [[EXK]] on the silver side. I also like the double silver ETF [[AGQ]] here as well.    Finally, the Jackson silvers are looking strong here as well — Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] , [[PAAS]] and [[SLW]].

Non-PM Jacksons Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] and Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] continue to look great while agro man The Andersons, Inc. [[ANDE]] takes a breather.   Still a buy as well, though.

From a non-Jackson picks side, [[BIOS]] is getting knocked back today, but it’s still on trend by a long piece, so look to add. Also , the rockets I gave you the other day — Trimble Navigation Limited [[TRMB]] and Given Imaging Ltd. [[GIVN]] , are flagging here and if they begin to take off from the bottom of these flags (instead of breaking down), they too could be a nice purchase here. Use caution and mind your sizing with these big movers. Best to you all, and look to the PM’s if the dollar continues to deteriorate.

UPDATE:  I almost forgot to throw something in on Rage’s regional banks  play.  Of those I like Fifth Third Bancorp [[FITB]] and KeyCorp [[KEY]] .  Somewhat  related — I also like the Irish shilelegh-wielding banks too — Bank of Ireland (ADR) [[IRE]] and Allied Irish Banks, plc. (ADR) [[AIB]] .


Comments »

Dollah Dollah Bill, Y’Awl!

Yeah, I’m afraid our recent rise and today’s hiccup are all about the craptastic dollar, which my friend Cash & Guns pointed out yesterday may be indicating a rebound.   Let’s have a look at our favorite dollar proxy — [[UUP]] . Here’s the daily:

You can see on the daily chart above that we just popped into a pretty stiff consolidation zone today, and that it runs all the way to $24 — which is also close to the significant 61.8% retrace of that long term move at $24.06 or so.    But seeing as we’ve already penetrated that line, it’s now become resistance, and will serve as a barrier to our dollar rebound.

Now look at the weekly:


I will leave the conjecture up to you, but it looks like our $UUP dollar may have a hard time getting back over that $24 hump, even as it climbs back from that bear flag breakdown.   At least we know where the hard road lies, should it do so. 

Right now, I’m taking this as a signal to hold my precious metal positions.   Seeing as I’d do that anyway, you might rightly accuse me of pattern bias.  However, until the trend changes, I will not consider hedging my positions.


[[CNXT]] , which I previewed here on Sunday night as a possible “BTFO” if it broke $1.50 did just that today, proving that the Fly’s tech thesis seems to be at least partially intact.   In honour (sic) of that win today, I will post two other “techish” names that look to be moving out of long term downtrends as well.

The first is really a medical device play, and — ironically — it was mentioned in a TC post to my blog the other night as a defense of the Israeli contributions to humanity (you’d think the Old Testament and Bar Raefeli would have been enough, but no, these guys just keep on giving).   Ladies and gentlemen, teeny tiny colon submarine producer Given Imaging Ltd. [[GIVN]] :


Note, that’s a weekly chart, which really emphasizes the significance of the trend break, IMHO.

Next weekly chart shows a similar strong trend change in Trimble Navigation Limited [[TRMB]] .   This one might even get all you “head and shoulders” fanatics’ back legs a twitching:


Comments »

Lord of the Flies Decade

Bow down to Lord Pig!  Did you forget what Island you were on?

Don’t think you can just skip on down to the Circle and pick up the conch and blow to your heart’s content.

You cannot.

No, it’s time to get your horn rimmed glasses smacked from your face and ground underfoot, whilst you grope wildly after fuzzy-form perpetrators who’ve done away with Good English Manners.

The Jacksons took a similar blind side hit today, and you know what? I’m not given to much concern. I’ll sit up here on top of my coconut tree and munch bananas whilst I watch the devolution down below.

Yes, yes, “kill the pig, slit it’s throat!”

(Eye roll)


Note [[BAA]] , mentioned last night, and of which I bot 6k of at close at $2.03-.04, hardly moved today, even as the gold and silvers markets shivered and [[UUP]] peeked its battered head up? Did you note the same behaviour (sic) with previously recommended Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] ?

Pure luck, I assure you. All of the juniors will show some strength, merely because their time to shine is almost here. Same with the silvers. They are trying to shake, but even their now-familiar swoons seem half hearted.

Just wait here, with me atop the coconut tree. The ham hocks will be served, presently.


Comments »

Two Golds and a Bold!

two golds

Allright, that’s enough of this Barack Obamacare bashing. For now.

Let’s all remember what this blog is about after all, which is sound money market plays. That stuff can’t work out without a crapload of bad government policy to destroy the currency for our benefit. So let’s all take a minute to thank Barack and Nancy and the whole group down at the Fed for the opportunities they’ve apportioned us.

And here’s some more that I think may be burbling to the surface this very evening… First it looks like the coal stocks are catching a whiff, so let’s not forget about the Jacksonian dividend payor — Natural Resource Partners LP [[NRP]] .

Next I’ve got some fun junior golds that I think are ready to take off, not unlike last night’s recommendation [[CNXT]] did today. The first I’ve talked about for many months, and it’s one of my favourites (sic) of the junior miner variety — and here’s Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] ‘s weekly chart:

Looking for a flat side breakout (up) here, with a little additional volume. $9.00 should be the safe zone.

Next is [[BAA]] , which finally got it’s mojo going today. I think a move over $2.14 is the second stage of this story:

Last, an old friend who may be indicating good news (finally) for the Brotherhood of the Natural Gas freaks (like Fly’s Flotek), is Lexington, KY-based NGAS Resources, Inc. [[NGAS]] , which is showing a turtle head pop-out of the downtrend:


Last, the silvers look like they are going to make another run, so keep an eye on the silver Jacksons Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] , Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] and [[PAAS]] . Also platinum finally started getting off it’s keyster today as well — I use the ETF [[PTM]] to invest in that precious metal.

Remember to write your Congressperson about keeping their hands off your private, well supplied healthcare system. Don’t let them kill the goose that’s laying the golden eggs for us and the rest of global health. Best to you all.

Comments »