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Gold’s not been so hot, here, but I’m patient, and I’ll wait for it to break out of this oversold condition much like I’ve done many times in the past. There’s been little conditional change in the broader underpinnings of this PM market. We still have massive liquidity demand — if only for bandaging purposes on European and American debt problems. We still have too much of our economy being crowded out by government creep (and creeps). And earl and ag inflation, despite the recent sell-offs, are a constant threat.
I am therefore comfortable holding my horde whilst exploring other alternatives that have been solid for me for years. Among those, you know of UPS and MON, which I’ve spoken of many times. I still like those for the very long term. There are a couple of other names, however, that I have talked about much recently.
These are stocks that I would categorize as “hold forever,” as long as they continue to carry and groom their historically strong management teams. You just put these names away and expect the best. Then one day, they reward you, like Markel (MKL) did this
week.
I would encourage you to study up on Markel, some would say they are “the next Berkshire Hathaway.” All I know is that these are very sharp guys on the insurance side… very workman-like and below the radar. The kind of stock I like to hold forever.
On the consumer products front, LANC (Lancaster Colony) — a name I’ve mentioned here beofre– is another gem that does nothing but grow wisely on your supermarket shelves. It looks real nice right here:
Read up on LANC as well. It’s good niche food business, with a sweet little dividend to keep things happy while you wait. Slow and steady wins the race on these smart folks.
Last, for those of you who are jonesing for a gold pick, there is benighted AAU, which #6 asked me about on my last blog post. It’s looking oversold like the rest of the gold market, and it sure looks like it’s in opportune spot here resting on its 200 week EMA:
Patience will be rewarded, as it has been for a decade now.
Best to you all…
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Looking into SSRI and took a starter position today. Cost structure is fair but any idea on their hedge book? All spot price or split? Thanks Jake, take care man.
As far as I know, their hedging is negligible.
Their problem has been largely performance related. Their relative cheapness is what attracts me, however, and I think that makes them an attractive acqusition play.
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Thanks. My favorite is AG. By 2015, management sees 15m in production at $6 cash cost? Easy double long-term, on a conservative basis.
I think SLW’s “cost” per oz. is about $4.00. Of course, they are a royalty play, and do not suffer from the same problems as many operators.
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Lynas ($LYSCF) – at low point of trading range; yet reo prices are up as much as 20% in the last 2 days. Lynas’ construction about done – HotCopper board reports farewell parties to send crews back home to Australia. Compare MCP reaction to reo prices, Lynas will be next.
Like GDLNF, Lynas is a crap shoot. Be cautious and minimalist.
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rru2s,LYSCF is all about the news as you know and its coming.When LAMP gets the green light,its BOOOOOOM City!$1.70 will be seen very quickly.imho
As you know, Markel is big in the RVA. Bet you didn’t know, they partnered with convicted felon (drugs for guns),Justin French , in a shady tax credit deal here a couple years back. (Renovating historic properties, inflating costs of renovations, getting huge tax credits from state, selling those credits)
Everyone knew this guy was dirty so not so sure how ‘sharp’ that management team really is.
Looks like they were the ones who outed French in the first place.
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I think they did that as last recourse. They tried to keep it as quiet as possible and he probably took advantage of that.
Shady, not stupid.
Are you still holding IPSU?
MKL & LANC .. I knew you weren’t a two trick pony 😉
I have many horses in my stables.
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@ Dozer — yep.
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AGRO for grains,sugar,ethanol,cattle … asset play, forget the earnings. If you don’t mind partnering with Soros … Haha!
thanx JG.
What do you think about PBR here ? Thanks Jake.
Oversold like CRAZY, but I just can’t figure it out… one of the perils of investing in a quasi-socialist country’s “baby.”
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Senator – I know you don’t normally trade on the TSX but for a copper play I initiated in Inmet = IMN.tsx. Just under 400,000 shares per trade volume. $54 and they have $25/share in cash! Taking out the cash they are trading at about a 7 P/E. If you’ve got a bit of time, I would appreciate your thoughts.
I don’t generally mess w the Canuckistanis unless they have a US listing. On the copper front, however, FCX is starting to look very attractive.
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Despite my lack of interest in the PM’s for some time now, I couldn’t resist the sell offs in FSM and JAG and decided to catch those falling knives down here … we shall see.
I thought you were an MVG guy? That’s held up quite well, even in this downturn.
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Sold it on last highs but “I’ll be back” as soon as it corrects.
Holding a little AAU, RBY, PZG and IVN as well.
Hey, Mr. Teabone, do you remember Sandstorm Gold? The only thing that has saved me this past, unfortunate few months.
I guess it all would have went better, had I been able to keep adding on the downswings.
Patience is being forced upon me. LOL
*gone better?
snipering a few shares of AAU and AG down here.
Get some! Get some!
How is the government crowding out with record low interest rates?
By taking up some 28% of GDP when historically its been under 20%. That’s some pretty inefficient use of investment capital/funny money.
And it’s the low interest rates which are giving gummint a pass on out-of-control spending. Unless one believes there will be no consequences to a ZIRP environment that’s producing historically low GDP growth rates in the long run, it’s pointing to an stagflationary future that will be ripping off arms and legs…
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So do you think that if the government suddenly reduced its spending to 20% of GDP then the private sector would come roaring back? I think the exact opposite, due to the fact the private sector is stuck in a deleveraging cycle. Government spending is the only thing keeping the US economy alive right now, so we should be thankful its 28% of GDP. Or we could just go full austerity like Europe… Once the private sector deleverages government spending will go back to normal levels, everything works in cycles. People seem to forget that due to recency bias.
Horse crap. The government needs to get out of the recycling money game. Rather, leave that money in the private sector, or better yet, privatize and de-regulate. You’ll see a boom like you haven’t seen since, well… 1983.
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I guess we’ll agree to disagree. My view is the private sector isn’t spending or investing because it is still recovering from one of the biggest private debt bubbles in history.
It would be nice if the government could just leave the money in the private sector but it can’t. There is leakage via the current account deficit and the private sectors desire to save. That desire to save is even greater with the private sector debt burden. This is why the government must run deficits with the economy in its current state. Look at the relationship between the government account, private sector account, and the foreign account. That view has data to back it up.
The crowding out theory actually has more evidence against it, and reeks of political ideology. I also don’t understand the blanket statement to privatize and deregulate. If the government can de-regulate responsibly then de-regulation is a good thing. But if the government de-regulates irresponsibly you get 2008.
Lastly 1983 is vastly different from 2012. I shouldn’t have to explain why.
As always I respect your opinions Jake and can’t resist a debate.
The desire to save is borne completely of a fear of the Federal Government and it’s (current) destructive policies. My clients have CHICAGO-loads of cash to spend on their balance sheets and they are at odds & ends trying to figure out how to do it in this current risk spectrum. Right now, the ones who are acting are betting on regulatory retrenchment.
Leave the economy alone. To believe that government can “fund” it or — gods forfend — “direct” it, is the greatest of fatal conceits and will lead us down the path to slavery and destruction.
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25+ comments and not ONE about how freaking cool Neil Young is (or was when he was writing songs like the above)….
I am sorely disappointed.
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http://www.brooklynvegan.com/archives/2012/03/neil_young_craz.html
New album in June of Americana tunes from back in the day and possible tour ….
His new stuff is for shit. He’s lost it, but he was a freaking genius as a kid.
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Good point, Jake, top notch, Neil is one of my favorites.
Thanks also for that naturally 7 recommendation a couple of weeks ago, loved it.
I also added to my horn of plenty in QRM.
I’ve got so much of that schit I could win 100 Scrabble matches in a row.
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Xon61c-KNg
Horn of Plenty is a nostalgic amalgamation of found sounds and layered vocals bound to thrill followers of Animal Collective, Sufjan Stevens, Nick Drake and the Unicorns. While the album pushes the boundaries of mellow into undiscovered territory, Grizzly Bear is not sure if they fall under the newly coined “freak-folk” category or hte new-folk genre, but they’d like to offer up wood-temp or cave-core. V Magazine likened them to Neil Young on cough syrup.
Jake, have you ever read up on MON? One of the few companies I won’t touch. I wouldn’t sell my soul on account of any money they could make me
Stop reading left wing garbage, you’ll find the benefits too numerous to tally.
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Schucks…im still waitin for AAU to print 10 bucks.
Remain superpositronic about it and someday you will wait no more.
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hey sorry, this has nothing to do with neil be i thought u would be interested in this, the bill nancy pelosi said we have to pass it so we can see whats in it http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=HcBaSP31Be8t.
lol.
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fCFdMrzm0Gc&feature=related
I wish someone would just take out BRD already. Good gawd. My biggest loser, ever.
And still, I hang on.
Oh no, it is not the biggest loser ever, that satelite telephone company was. It went to .01. I blocked out the ticker in my mind, out of self-kindness to myself.
BRD, unfortunately, is bringing it all back to me. argh
Love Neil Young! Bet he doesn’t dabble in the miners.