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I put these charts together last night for you, but I was too wiped out to write anything in conjunction (I got home real late last night).  

Turns out that may not have been such a bad thing.   You’ll see what I mean when you see the charts.  

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Sometimes in the beginnings of a trend or cycle change, you can take advantage of some otherwise extremely risky pinless hand-grenade type plays that would otherwise be off limits to all but the most eyeball-sunburnt screen jockies.

I think this is one of those periods, and I’ve got two stocks for the “piker community” and a third for the Gentleman (and Ladies) of The PPT that look like apt candidates for some “follow fun.”   Not coincidentally, these three stocks were all up double digits yesterday, and two of them were up 20% or more. 

 Keep in mind that “pinless hand grenade” is a generous description of these little buggers, for if that is an apt description of biotech, then the apt description of this sector — the “rare earth metals” — is more like “loosely wired suitcase nuke with a broken clasp.”  Play very tiny if you choose to do so — for fun really, as your real meat will be carved from the husks of the gold and silver bears (Hellloooo Palo Alto!), and these should be considered nothing more than the most amusing of “amuse-bouches.”

First let’s look at QRM and check my buy and sell zones:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Note that I did these charts last night… and you can see that I thought that we’d run into some pretty immediate consolidation… which we did.  In fact, I thought this one would be a little bit easier as it had launched the day before off it’s 20-day EMA.  I figured that would provide some good support, post consolidation (the box area), but that one might want to wait till it launches once again (as I’m almost sure it will) past that boxed consolidation zone.   As I type this, QRM is trading at $3.02 with a LOD of $2.98.

Now let’s look at serious pocket rocket AVL.  I figured this one would have a nice sell-off this morning, due to it being up almost 24% (!!!) yesterday, and I was not incorreuct (sic).   Right now, it’s down almost 6.3% to $3.14 with an LOD of $3.11. 

Want to guess where $3.11 is on that chart below? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Yeah, right about now I’m feeling like you can just call me “Neo” and I’ll stop all the bullets and the black suit guys for you with a wave of my hand.

But that shit never lasts so take advantage of it while you can.

Best to all.  PPT’ers look for #3 in the “Notes section” of The PPT.

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ah blah

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(Or not?)
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Today, it seems everyone’s getting all excited about earl, that black gold concoction that keeps the Enviroweenies up at night dreaming up new ways to keep you off your Harley or leafblower of choice.   But don’t be fooled by it’s recent price appreciation.  It’s really only doing that to piss off my friend, Mr. Cain Thaler, of the Ascendent Dollar Theory.

What’s really going on has nothing to do with Israelis and Iranians playing tit-for-tat on the atomic apocalypse scene, nor does it even have anything to do with whether or not the Keystone Oil Pipeline gets approved by President “Jobs? Whattaya mean, Jobs?” Obama. 

No, it’s not even about the price of earl at all.  In fact, here in the real world universe, the price of earl hasn’t moved even one bit from yesterday.   What’s moved is the price of the dollar.  And it’s not just the price of the dollar versus other crappy fiat currencies, either.  It’s the price of all commodities versus the dollar.

Since the beginning of  November, the CRB Commodity index is up almost 7% from it’s October low at $291.75.   What’s more, that low was almost a perfect 61.8% fibonacci retrace of the May 2010 low at $247.16 to the April 2011 high of $374.48! 

Imagine all that stuff bottoming while the dollar was still ascending?  And now, it seems the dollar is retreating off what could very well be a double top formation.

Are you getting excited yet?  

More charts later….

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KVN_0qvuhhw 450 300]

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It seems that the Olympian Fowl of Late November have been a bit tardy this year.   Gauging the current mood of the financial blogosphere, however, one would think the Mohawks had rescinded the Thanksgiving truce and were busy rendering bad punk haircuts to the entire Southern District of New York.

Ridiculous.   So you had a bad “Black Friday Shopping Experience?”  You didn’t get that $199 42″ plasma from Best Buy despite leaving 4 grandmothers denture-less thanks to your “flying elbows of  mercantile death?”  That’s a damn shame.   You should bring a hockey stick next time if you want to prove you are a playah.   That’s no reason to go all knee-knocked on the market because of a bad Turkey Week. I urge you not to become Ursine Prejudiced.  It’s the worst kind of poison for the mind.

You see, sometimes the Turkey Gods are leisurely in their ambling down from the stratosphere to bless you with the grapes of coin.  This is why it pays to have patience and to step into an oversold cycle in a graduated fashion.   Last week I saw the PM’s starting to show signs of a rally even as the dollar stayed strong, but I knew that rally would not fully materialize until the dollar was finally ready to retreat.  So I played halfway, and stayed out of the high octane stuff (save for a starter in AGQ) to start.

By my calculations, that dollar retreat should have started Wednesday or even Friday of last week, and therefore, by those lights, the dollar is living on borrowed time.   I think we will see a top perhaps as soon as tomorrow morning as the dollar tries to rally to the September highs.   From a stochastic and RSI standpoint, that rally looks ready to stall.  Note the overbought conditions in the following daily index chart:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think we can take advantage of this pullback and I plan to put on some leveraged plays — including NUGT and AGQ — if the dollar begins to break down significantly this week.   I’m not sure I will have those plays on for very long, but I think we can take some short term advantage of the return to the mean this oversold cycle presents.   As usual I would look to the liquid plays — GDX, GDXJ, SIL, SLW and RGLD.   If you insist on playing the micros and the juniors, please play small… and swiftly.

Best to you all, in your tryptophan heavens.

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I have a daughter who was born in 2000.  She’s going to a classmate’s party today, and you guessed it, the classmate is also 11, on 11/11/11.   Pretty cool.  Of course my daughter also knows kids that were in 10 on October 10th and 9 on September 9th, and almost all the way down the line.   I guess that’s one of the hidden perks of being a Millenial Baby. 

Of course all that fun ends next December on 12/12/12, which will not coincidentally also soon after auger in her first year of teenagerdom.  Teenagerhood?  Teenagedness?

In any case, I’d better gird my loins.

But let’s not lose sight of the importance of the Day itself, written into history in 1918 as the end marker of “The War to End all Wars” — WWI.  Unfortunately that was a bit of hubris, wasn’t it?  The very Treaty (Versailles) signed that day in fact set the groundwork for an even worse World War only a little more than 20 years later. 

The study of history shows that human nature is cyclic, and that we tend to make the same mistakes, no matter our careful plans to eradicate them by mutually agreed consensus.   There will always be those who seek to take advantage of said consensus, just as there will always be those claiming we’ve finally arrived at the “End of History.”  

To expect otherwise in future is a fool’s game.  We can only do the best we can, and improve ourselves individually and as a society by gentle consensus, and with a constant and humble awareness that we will backslide.  That knowledge, that humility, will allow us to rebound all the quicker.

I would humbly suggest we hold then to our accumulated traditions, our respect for others, their person and property and our fealty to consensual agreement over forced autarchy.   For these are the traditions that set the Free People of the West apart from civilizations of the past, and from the failed societies of the present.  

But let’s also be most cognizant that these traditions are under fire from many quarters, and that in many cases, all that stands between them and the less enlightened cohorts of the past are the blood of those willing to defend their preservation.

So let’s raise a glass to our Veterans, and to those who carry the sword — voluntarily — into battle for our civilization today.   And pass that good word to a soldier in uniform not just this day, but from this day foreward.

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As I expected (was hoping?), the dollar gnomes have collapsed the dollar anew.    This has led to some very nice activity in the silver and gold pits, with the kind of flagging (bullish) that makes my heart grow fond.

I will likely add here and there to my hordes today, and will let you know if I do.  Right now I am enjoying strong moves in SLW, EGO, IAG and my various ETF plays, including the doubles AGQ and NUGT.

As always, if you want to toe-dip, start with the basics — GDX, GDXJ and SIL.  Highest octane is in the crazy silvers, like my favourites AG and EXK.  Today and for the next few days, SSRI should also be moving to make up for the plungerooni (overdone) yesterday.

Lastly, don’t forget about the “rare earth” plays like QRM and AVL for added dollar inflation pop.
My best to you all on this day of honour.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MLMnpB51vVM&feature=related 450 300]

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I may be half a world away, but  I’m still checking in on you chickies.  I know that the precious metal trade remains robusto, despite the dollar’s flirting with Euro-shagging here in the late late Sunday evening.   (Believe me it’s even later here).

Just so you know, I loaded up on AGQ, RGLD, NUGT, SLW, AG this past Friday for better or for worse.  Here’s what I’ve been looking at from an AGQ basis:

 

Note the long consolidation phase and the promise of a couple of weeks?   Heck, that week may even be here.

And the there’s another.  “Besotten Dick” we call him and up aways at the motor hotel we hear about the same preachers who try to smolder the ladies on Sunday morning only to poke out at the end.

His ticket of choice is IAG, a much disparaged gold stock that need to reside safely in American hands…. so as never to be dispatched by foreign antipaths again.  You may call this analysis but I call it mental telepathy.

Amazing how many of these things come out when the games are hot  no? Coincidental?  I think it might help put the nearest Jakesib in the looney bin should he act up..

Best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sEDw9xgSmSc 450 300]

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I’ve found a bipartisan effort I invite you all to get behind.  Yes, that was me, invoking the word “bi-partisan.”   Harken quickly and not so lightly, as this will surely be a rare occurence not often repeated.

What I’m talking about is Representative Jeff Flake’s idea to “Staple Green Cards to PhD diplomas” so as to make sure we don’t cede any of that freshly minted U.S.-educated talent back to the Third World and worse (in the case of the Red Chinese).   Even President 0’Bama has gotten behind the idea, despite his telling Steve Jobs that he couldn’t sever the Gordian Knot of immigration reform gumming up the Congress.

And why not, I ask you?  Post-secondary education is one of Americas remaining differentiating advantages, and smart children from the world around come here to take advantage of it.  Why shouldn’t we make it easier for those bright individuals to enhance our quality of life here, not to mention add to the employment ranks by creating new businesses and hiring even more people?  Did you know that half of Silicon Valley start-ups over the last two decades have been started by foreign born individuals?

Howabout this — we wouldn’t even have Steve Jobs were his Dad not here on a student visa.  Serendipitous, no?

Maybe we should take the cue?

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Well that dollar bounced severely today, and so did my Skiffles, which are my one remaining hedge.  They weren’t enough to make up for the blood on the ground from my newly minted mining additions, but I’m not even yet half invested, so I’ve got a lot of room and a lot of dry powder…

And a lot of patience.

I will be adding to my Skiffles tomorrow, however, if the dollar continues it’s climb.  Gold is holding up strong here, and so is silver, which bodes well for the miners.  If this were a real commodity sell off, silver would’ve been bludgeoned far worse today.   BAA is a quarter shorter than yesterday and I might add to my holdings there in the morning, as I really liked the way it looked like it was being accumulated at the end of the day.

If you want to play with more generic pieces, keep GDX (large cap gold), GDXJ (junior gold) and SIL (silver miners) in mind to play the ETF field.  For the more adventurous, like m’self, I also like NUGT on a pullback here as well as AGQ.  RGLD, last of all, is showing nice relative strength.

See you tomorrow, I hope.

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