[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1L12072ZZP4&feature=related 450 300]

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Geez, a guy goes road trippin’ for one day and lookee here-–  the market melts down like a fat guy at a Bette Midler Film Festival.   I’m going to be honest here… I don’t really give a cut quid about the overall market.  I’m heavily invested in the dread instruments SKF and TZA, so I’m well protected against the whims Mr. Dow and his Standard and increasingly Poor friend.

What I’m not protected against is the whims of the $HUI, gash damnit to the hezzy.

So I took some egregious blow to the head after all today, my “bad ETF’s” not withstanding, especially at the end of the day when the whole market dove for the subterranean depths.  That said, it wasn’t as bad as it could’ve been, and the $HUI remains in that channel we described yesterday.     Check it:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Note, we haven’t even broken through the 20-day EMA here, which has been recent support.  I guess I’ll just have to eat some sammitches and wait to see what kind of follow-through we get tomorrow.   My major problem, as always, is the dollar, which is breaking up back to those fib levels we talked about last time.  Look at how damn close we are again:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tomorrow will probably be do or die for both the dollar and the $HUI, so let’s try to pay some attention.    I’m going to be out again tomorrow morning, but I’ll check in and make sure the markets are behaving– and you are too.  If the coast is clear, I’d say the hot silvers are your best bet — AG and EXK and even MVG.  Otherwise, you can chill and have your girlfriend make you a sammitch.

Best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dzpTFQR0Tg&feature=related 450 300]

Whatever happened to gay rap anyway?

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Today was kind of interesting, no? False alarm breakouts all over, and almost none of them held…

Save for the PM miners of course. Sort of like a… a… PM Dawn, no? I took my cue off the Baby $HUI earlier today, as it had gracefully touched the bottom of it’s trading channel and then sprung up like a coked out stallion loose in the mare barn.  True, it sold off some at the end of the day after that initial hop up.. but I still like the pin action.  Note:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Despite the long wick in that last candle, I like how there’s still lots of room to run on the RSI and the other stochs.   This puts me in the mind that we are seeing a genuine handle breakout here.   On this action, I doubled up on my XRA and BAA positions, as noted in The PPT today, right before lunch.  I also added to EXK, AG, GDXJ and SIL.   I even bought some more RGLD, just to add to that pile.

Some other nice movers today that I own, but did not add too (much to my chagrin) included AXU, ANV, AUQ, AUY,GSS, NUGT, IAG, NXG, etc.  Keep an eye on these for further developments tomorrow.

As I type, the dollar is below $77, Gold is well over $1,810 and silver is over $40, indicating the $HUI is steering us in the right direction.   Enjoy tomorrow, as I will be “road-bound” again, and checking in from remote airport locations & scruffy hotel bar rooms.

My best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5MKuJ8ZnJQ&feature=related 450 300]

A Masterpiece, and Highly Recommended

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I was looking at some silver metal statistics this afternoon and came across and old fibonacci chart of the silver commodity ($SILVER).   It looked to be running into a relatively significant Fib line of support at approximately $39.50.  That line should hold, given the overbought conditions of the dollar, but here’s the daily chart:

 

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X43ZyUGOPyw&feature=related 450 300]

The Greatest New Wave Hit Ever to Prominently Employ an Accordian

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Aside from that fantastic musical interlude, as written, played and sung by musical prodigy Matt Johnson of The The (no, really, that was the band’s name), who later in life went on to shave his head and post semi-lucid conspiracy rants on the internets.  And no, I kid you not– it’s kinda sad actually.   I won’t link his blog, as you’ve seen it all before.

On the trading scene, I’ve got very little to add tonight.   We only need see this dollar issue resolve.  If we are in a bull flag situation, we should quickly spurt above $78.1o on the DX-Y, and then we are “clean” out of all PM’s and miners.  I will continue to keep my Skiffles (SKF) as I believe that will be keeping me somewhat warm throughout the Mort Kondracky Winter.  A break of that $78.10 number on the dollar will actually induce me to store away more Skiffles as I await massive bank death via the whirling blades of European currency demise.

For the love of Ticonderoga pencils under $35/ a piece, please do not get shaken out too early.   I assure you it will be worth the $1 or so move on the dollar index to make sure you are not being head-faked here… again.  Whatever does happen, however, you should not head out to the moors seeking the Werewolf’s curse, or go down to your local discotheque seeking mad mad passionate love from Big Baby Glenn Rice.  Let’s keep things in perspective and ride this puppy together.

Best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8MA3406YJUg&feature=related 450 300]

What Goes On at Jake’s Desk Whilst He’s Away
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What the hell goes on around here while I’m gone?  I mean, a man takes a couple of days to go on a top secret mission, and the place falls to wrack and ruin.   I come back and my desk is all askew… my papers molested, my fine Cuban cigars gummed and caked with salivatory drool.   What in the bloody blazes has been going on in my absence!?

What’s that?  Random Errand Boys stealing up to my desk and attempting to short the silver lode??   My impulsive young man!  Why not just go bounce on the high-tensile strength trampoline with a fistful of extra-sharpened #2 Ticonderoga Pencils??

Honestly, I just don’t understand the tendency toward self-immolation that pervades this site in my absence.  Why is it some many of you “traders” look to shower yourselves with butane and then engage in “roman candle horseplay” of the most ill-advised variety?   This is not an episode of “Jackass,” this is high-thesis investing!

Don’t you like money?

Why take the high risk trade?  For thrills, a la Beavis, et al?

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XchwE9zVdnw&feature=related 450 300]

It’s nonsensical, I tell you.  If there’s one thing my compadre Gary Savage and I agree on… it’s this maxim: NEVER SHORT A BULL MARKET!

How many times must I repeat it, and still, like moths to the flame, Icarus to the sun and an Obama Voter to a Trans Fat protest march, you insist on ruining your fragile portfolios by playing with pinless grenades whilst cavorting in a cranberry bog.  And here you come again, your fingerless hand-stumps held out in silent imprecation, blaming me for your troubles.

Well, it’s true, I am here to help.   But you mustn’t be led astray again.  Remember, fading over-confidence in certain sectors of this site is almost as sure a signal as an overbought dollar.   Here’s the latest on that curmudgeonly currency, btw… note how we are advancing into significant zone of resistance on this weekly:

 

Note that I think the dollar can extend all the way back up to that0 $78.10 area, where both the 61.8% golden ratio fibonacci retrace and the rising trend line offer strong resistance.    So don’t be surprised if we pull back a touch more in both the markets and the commodities in the next couple of days as the dollar reaches that resistance level one more time.

After that re-touch, I predict that we will see one final glorious “plungerooni” in the dollar… down to the lows indicated on the above weekly chart.   At this juncture I expect the typical bull here will get drunk on cheap cherry wine and– in the the throes of sock-tongued inebriation– bury his face in the bosom of some local tavern wench.

This, I would contend, would be an ill-usage of your time.   I would rather suggest taking that period to phase out of your remaining long positions including, sadly, your precious metal miners (at least for the nonce), whilst battening down the hatchest with some choice shorts (like the Skiffles).

In the spirit of caution I of course must warn you:  should we break significantly past that $78 dollar index price marking our resistance, all wagers are off, and the window should be closed all the sooner.

My best to you, my Nuttiest of Professors.

 

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Many have claimed that there’s no end is sight for this downturn, or recession or depression– until we see an uptick in the housing sector again.

Still others claim that until the banks are “fixed” and back on their feet, we cannot experience stable economic growth through strong credit support.

It appears each claimant is at least partially right, and moreover, that each of those sectors live and die together, wrapped in a form of symbiosis that is both mutually beneficial… and destructive.

This may all be “Master of the Obvious” stuff for you, but I figured I’d bring it to illustrative life for you anyway.  There’s not been much talk of the housing sector recently on these boards, and maybe that “out of favor” status is warranted.  Whatever the case, it’s clear that both housing and the bank index are again marching in lock step, and seemingly to their doom.

First I’ll show you $BKX –– no surprise for my readers, who’ve seen my starting to ring up purchases in the anti-bank index SKF because of this very weekly (sic) chart:

 

Note now that in comparison, I won’t use the Housing Index ETF– XBH— mostly because it’s made up of a lot of non-house building stocks.  Same with another housing index–  ITB — where some 70+%  of the stocks encompassed is not home builders but instead retail accessory places like Pier 1 and Home Depot.   No, I simply took the most popular name in the home building industry– Beazer Homes (BZH)– and ran the weekly chart.  The similarities are astounding:

 

And like $BKX, it seems BZH is readying for a rebound as well.  It makes no matter, I wouldn’t trust either as far as I could throw their Chief Investor Relations Officer.  These are sectors that are ripe for shorting at any major moving average (which on the weekly charts above would be the 13 and 34-week EMA’s).

Have fun and keep an eye on both for any profitable divergences.  Make no mistake, both sectors are hurting right now and should continue to do so into the near future.  That doesn’t mean a scalp won’t be available on the upside every now and again.

My best to you all.

 

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