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As I sit here inside my famous Maine homestead, on the end of a sea-bounded rocky egg surrounded by pines, raccoons, osprey, snowy egret, billions of tonnes of mesomorphic and granitic stone, and sluggish black mosquitoes as big as your head, know that I’m thinking of you all fondly.

Today I kayaked all the way out to a remote island in the middle of the bay with my two older sons and a cousin of theirs.  I was extremely proud to see them make it on what was a more arduous journey than we first conceived.  It sort of makes one feel all the tonnes and tonnes of extraneous food they are now consuming is going to some good use in the gradual addition of competent sinew and bone.  Be advised, however, the grocery bill on vacation, fueled by noshing and boozing adults and teenage boys exposed to the brisk northern air can look like the tally for a small air force base under battle ready conditions.

And that’s not even counting the “going out to dinner” tabs.   I think I am going to insist on summer jobs from here on out.

Don’t expect much from me this week, churlish churls.  I’ll  not be like the Monsieur le Fly, regaling you with tales of Amish cow-tipping and such.  No, you’ll be lucky to get the occasional report these next two weeks.  I don’t expect to be doing much in the market save banquing coyne (sic), as it seems the PM run is going to continue whether I’m in front of my screen or not.

I’ve given you several names over the last couple of weeks, and I think the small ones will provide much bang for the buck (AAU, BAA, CGR and BRD particularly).   There are a couple that I will be watching very closely, however, as their longer term chart patterns are appealing to me.  Let’s start with AUQ, which I haven’t spoken much about:

I think there will be some pullbacks in the weeks ahead and I think these are your best bets, long term, on some kind of a retrenchment.  AUQ has just had an awesome consolidation period.   So has has the crazy Japanese Man, Yamana (AUY), which may have the biggest saucer pattern of the PM Renaissance Era.  Tell me you don’t see something happening here?

 

And it’s not like AUY’s chart’s indications couldn’t be any clearer…  in fact, I think in the end, you will see AUY do what RGLD is doing right now as we speak.  Do you own the Grandmama of them all?   If not, it’s not for lack of my nagging….

Be well, and don’t let the big ass black mosquitoes bite.

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Two things of interest this Sunday evening, if you want to stay off the political stuff, that is…

One, our favorite silver stocks have lots of room to run here, and if you’ve missed the boat previously, or disembarked prematurely, there should be plenty of gangplank for you to re-join the pirate party going forward.

EXK is one of my favorites, since I started talking about it back in the $3 range.   It’s amazing how it was nearly given up for dead recently in the big Silver Reversal of 2011, and yet, if you look at it on the weekly, it’s not really had such a drastic downturn after all.   In fact, some historians might call this “a healthy pullback.” Check out this weekly chart if you don’t believe me:

I have another Jacksonian I was watchingbubble up last week, and one I’ve told you to own for the long term, as in “passed down to the grandkids.”  And no, I don’t mean RGLD this time, although you should hold onto that one too.

No this one is the most hated of the hippies who have decided they are going to keep organic (that means fertilizing with cow dung and pushing a plow behind a team of oxen) as their “gold standard,” the poverty stricken populace be damned.   Let them eat heirloom tomatoes, I guess?   In any case, there’s a company that’s looking to feed the world through more robust and pest resistant crop yields, and it just happens to have enough IP in it’s coffers to pull that high bar achievement off.

The company is Monsanto  (MON), and it’s looking like it wants to breach some serious resistance here  on the long term weekly.  There is no resistance more powerful — or support more strong — than at the 61.8% long term Fibonacci line.  This is a significant line for those looking to go long AND short this stock this week:

As ag stocks seem to be taking off, you want to keep an eye on this one, especially if it manages to break that fib barrier this week.  My best to you all, even the hippies.

 

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WNrx2jq184&feature=related 450 300]

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Let’s face it, all the rocket ships I gave you over the last couple of days are now as egregiously overbought as Mrs. Fly’s Visa Card after a vacation in Paris.  I mean, that shit is panting.  It’s needs a new magnetic strip and make this next one indestructible titanium, please.

But enough japes about our wives spending habits.  What the hell is money good for anyway if you are not going to lay it out for your wife and children to dance through, mazurka-style?   And I’m here to talk about money and opportunity.

Those of you who were too timorous to take advantage of the earlier week’s outstanding pin action may be able to take a second spin at the wheel here in the very near future.  Almost everything is overbought on my RSI charts (as you will see) and even the $HUI is looking tired after some two weeks of glorious struggle with its support line.    You know about the Jacksonians — SLW, ANV, EXK, GDX, RGLD, etc., etc., and they should offer nice opportunities in the coming days as well.

But tonight’s study is going to be some noobs for the Noob community.  I have recently put some money into AXU (along w. le Monsieur), but I have not yet dabbled in AUQ or BRD.   I believe that may change in the next few days.   Here are my three charts, which detail my entry points. I begin with AXU:

And then AUQ:

And maybe my favorite of the three,  for the punning eventualities alone, “the BiRD” — BRD:

In the next week or so, I believe everyone will have heard, that the Bird is a word.

Best to you all.

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Otto’s Family Picture

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Today was a significant day for the silver miners. With the death of Prince Otto, the word was sent by carrier pigeon to Mr. Bilderberg and the Illuminati that they could once again indulge in the precious metal trade.  Obviously they took that word to heart, especially in the silver section, with the more sedate Jacksonians like SLW and PAAS up 6.26% and 3.20% respectively, and the silver miner ETF– ticker symbol SIL— up 4.29%.

Even more stunning were the pocket rockets.  Of course the double raw silver ETF, AGQ, was up almost 10%, but some of the small miners did even better. My second largest silver holding  EXK, was up almost 12%, while AG and MVG were both up over 8% each.   Even ANV, the  mercurial Jacksonian gold stock, got in the groove, with a move of over 6.72%.

Even more promising was the chart damage today’s moves did on the silver bears.  AG is the cleanest example:

EXK had a similar breakout today:

I love how these rockets are leading us up like they usually do.  I am not, however “all in,” yet, as the $HUI continues to bedevil me by refusing to resolve itself.   The 50-day still remains a micro-hair above the 200-day EMA and they are flattening to a needle point.

My one consolation is that we’ve finally closed above both key EMA’s at $528.42.  That’s noteworthy, since we haven’t been above either one since early June.  Stay tuned tomorrow for some follow through.  I may even expend some cash.   I’m looking at EGO and CDE to continue moving higher tomorrow and to the end of the week.   My top pick for tomorrow, however, is GPL.

Tally ho!

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Indeuuuuuud!
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The last of the Hapsburg Empire has taken his leave.  Harbor no belief that the positive action on gold and silver today is unrelated.  As ancient and corrupt medieval empires crumble into the sea, the strongest of civilization’s institutions remain standing, anchoring our economic and social order.

Note Prince Otto’s obituary’s first lines…

Otto von Habsburg, who has died aged 98, bore the oldest and most eminent dynastic name in European history and could, according to genealogists, trace his ancestry back to the sixth century. The pretender to the defunct thrones of Austria, Hungary, Croatia and Bohemia (now part of the Czech Republic), he pursued a democratic postwar career as a member of the European parliament and a fervent advocate of European union.

A fervant advocate of European Union?  Imagine a thwarted emperor advocating that?  One wonders what Otto’s countrymen, Hayek and Von Mises would have thought of all that?

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All of the Jacksonians and other gold and silver dreams are celebrating the Fourth Of July, seemingly independent now of the dollar’s flux, up over an average of 3%.   Favored Jacksonian’s SLW, ANV and EGO are all up over 4% as of this writing, and EXK is up over 9%.  Still, our friend the $HUI is having troubles breaking that near-term barrier at around $528, so we are not yet out of the Austrian woods, so to speak.

More on that tonight.

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Interesting that it took us only six days for $HUI to move back to support and re-test the lows of the other day.  Interesting as well that the miners held support despite the lower values of both underlying metals (Silver and Gold).

Let’s have a look at that chart again:

Let’s not quibble, here… we again stand on the edge of the knife.  Note how close we are to a 50-200-day EMA cross over. That would not be a good sign for anyone, and we are going to need a heck of a rally to pull those two nearing lovers apart again. RSI continues in our favor– if only moderately so — even as the slow stochastic is pointed firmly in a southerly direction.

I’m not going to vacillate here.  We should be ready to cut our positions to where we are comfortable with another 50 point southerly move in the $HUI. If we break support at $494-5 or so, then I think we will be headed that way.

All that said, today’s postive divergence action in the miners may indicate at least a short term bottoming in the downward action.  Our trusty negative ETF for silver — ZSL — has registerd three “overbought” days in a row on The PPT.  This is unprecedented in the history of The PPT, albeit a relatively short data set.  We also saw the iShares Gold ETF (IAU) show up on the Wall Street Journal’s Buying on Weakness charts, along with both GG and SLW — two very popular miners in gold and silver.  All of these indicate an appetite for miners that may be setting aside the current fluctuations in the underlying metal.

What’s apparent, however, is that we will know very soon what direction we are going in.   We cannot remain at the support level forever.  We shall either fail here, or make another attempt at the 200-day EMA.   The action from there will determine our more intermediate term prospects.

Keep an eye on the Dollar Index.  It looked sickly again today, and if it breaks down through that $75.20 support, we may have “game on” once again in the shiny metal sector.

God bless.

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