[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6yD43OrcjDI 450 300]

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Overall thumbs up to the RNC.  Some lame moments, but this is the Republicans, after all.  They are the opposite of slick.  Unlike many, I enjoyed Clint’s off the cuff rambling.  He’s like your crotchety grandfather — the one you got your sense of humor from, the one who could always make you smile.  Rubio had the second best speech of the convention, after only Ryan, and his tying his own immigrant roots-story into the Euro-style socialist policies of the Obama Administration was as spot-on as it was rhetorically brilliant.  To whit:

“These (Obama policies) are the ideas that people come to America to get away from.”

Brilliant.

Mitt was better than I expected, if only third place (Christie was terrible, IMHO, btw).  He humanized himself, I thought, and connected with the women’s vote, which will be crucial.  His economic versatility can be taken for granted, and it will be what helps save this Republic, but he’s not going to get that chance without “the womenses.”  Unlike Obama, he’s not just another pretty face.

I’m reasonably upbeat about the prospects of the GOP ticket going into November, but much work remains to be done.  Despite Obama’s Jimmy Carteresque record, he’s got major dollar-equivalent support from the likes of the major networks and wire services.  The good news is the American populace is discounting these propaganda organs substantially in the 21st Century.  The Obama-Reid-Pelosi abysmal record is there for those who want to review it,  and it’s our job as intelligent arbiters of our own republic to make sure the truth is not buried under slander, spin and misdirection.   God bless us all.

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I think yesterday’s downspike may have presented an opportunity, market-wise.  I may start to step back into some of my sold off SLW and SIL positions.  I also like SLV for the duration here.  Those of you who have not done so may even think about physical silver.  I think we’re done pulling back and getting ready for the (longer term) move back to the 2011 highs.  We’re back above the 200 day EMA (and pulled back to it yesterday at $29.40).  We may pay pull back to fill in some gaps in the recent rise, but I don’t see SLV getting back below $28.50 any time soon.

For those fleet of foot and young enough to throw some bones on a play, I think BAA presented a nice opportunity yesterday on that big pullback.  If you look at this five minute chart, you’ll see a bunch of buying in the last hour of trading, all at that magic $4-dollarish mark.

I think this thing is headed back to $5.00 at some point before year end, and that’s 20% from here. Keep in mind this is a risky one, and against my usual gold miner picking strategy as it’s got tonnes of political risk, being in the “Democratic”(hah!) Republic of Congo. Keep your finger on the “caution” button for this sucker.

Another beaten down stock I was asked about (by Ragin’ Cajun, it turns out, sorry I took so long RC!) is rare earth miner MCP — Molycorp. I don’t own any of this but looking at the chart, it seems like this would be as safe buy with your stops set below the close on the 28th ($10.75).  I think yesterday’s action was typical back and fill volatility, and MCP is ready to join the re-inflation party Chairman Bernanke is about to touch off in pursuit of “four more years” for he and Barry.

Best to you all.
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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2aO9tA5DWJM 450 300]

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The above is satire, of course, but let’s not laugh too hard at the funny kiddies.  In certain European states, the “path to success” is through the government bureaucracies.  Is the U.S. approaching that level?  Food for thought.

If you have not already, you should be trimming your silver and gold positions, or at least the leveraged ones.  We’ve had nice move here, so let’s not get too greedy.  I’m out of AGQ, NUGT and ERX as of this morning.  I’ve also trimmed between 35-50% of the remainder of my largest positions.

Have a great Friday.

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Bonus Crony!  This goes out to the speech stomping Jim H, (D- Croneyville).

Tribute to Mr. Mays….

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVrCKk45cZQ 450 300]

 

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Avast Mateys! It’s time to strike the main sail and deploy the twin outboard Mercuries, as Her Majesty’s Treasure Frigate, The H.M.S. Dollar-Dollar Bill, is taking on water and listing amidships!  Now is out time to pounce, Jag-you-are (sic) – style.

As I type, the dollar has broken below the crucial $82.00 “line o’ death” it’s been flirting with this last month, and fighting against even as all the stochastics began to show divergences marking an imminent change.  I think that change is here, and provided we finish the day below $82.00 (we are at $81.94 right now), I think we should be clear to fly until at least $80.70, which is the long term 50% fibonacci.  I do believe we should bounce then, just in time for a little September flattening while the dollar gets ready for a test of the 38.2% fib line down  below $79.00.   That should coincide with some nice seasonality for the precious, which always seems to be great offerings for the Turkey Gods, come November.

As I mentioned yesterday, I pushed the risk pedal with some AGQ, as silver was moving first.  However, I think today is gold’s catch up day, so if you want to add to your NUGT for a brief period, I wouldn’t gainsay that additional leverage.  As always, I recommend small and cautious with these instruments.  If you are seeking less “muss & fuss,” GDXJ is probably our most oversold ETF, as it got cranked the hardest in the recent “junior miner recession” this Spring.  It’s relatively overbought in the near term, but nonetheless a good bet to test it’s 200-day EMA here ($23.40) before pulling back.

A more speculative play is AUQ, which got trounced recently on bad numbers, but appears to be forming an island bottom on the daily chart, and has almost a full dollar gap to fill north of here.  Of course, the landscape is littered with these plays, and some of far higher quality.   Keep an eye on the 200-day EMA of gold bull index $HUI for a near-term guide.  It’s next resistance (top right of a daily cup) coincides with that 200-day mark, at about $465, and that should provide the near term stand by.

Happy near-term buccaneering to you all, me mateys!

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It looks like Argentum Silver is leading the PM hordes forth again, most likely as a direct predecessor to another dollar break here.  Up over 2.5% as I type and outpacing it’s usually more lively cousin, Aurum Gold, which is up only one-tenth as much.

I think this is a good sign, even for you non-PM investors, as silver is the more sensitive to the “commodity” and “industrial” sectors, and it’s rise here should be good news for all of you commodity speculators, whether you be earl rustlers or coal bandits.  I will continue with my investments in refiners until they stop making sense, however, even with a rise in earl.  I continue to like WNR and PSX, for instance.  HFC as well.

For silver bugs, I went long(er) today by adding to my AGQ position, for the short term trip to the 200-day EMA, at close to $50 right now.  I will likely sell this additional piece off when we reach that mark, however, as I don’t like to be too heavily leveraged in this volatile metal.   At least, not for any length of time.

I also like EXK here, despite it’s continue pokiness compared to jackrabbit AG.  SSRI also seems to be re-gaining ground, if you are of the speculative sort.  As always, SIL and SLW are the formidable base of my silver horde, and I recommend those for any toe dippers.

Best to you.

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Maybe this is the week of the “Paul Ryan Feel Good,” or just the week when Joe Biden rolled himself in a child’s wading pool full of tar and scrap paper, and then set himself alight.

Maybe the world feels a little more optimistic these days than they did even three weeks back.  Maybe that’s just an optical (auditory?) illusion.  Whatever the reason, the dollar is finally starting to budge a little bit, and we may be sniffing a break of $82.00 within the next week or so.  As a result, the risk trade, especially in the precious metals, refineries and earl & gas plays has finally begun to become more appetizing here.

You know I love SLW, and it’s really looking strong again here.  After consolidating on the 200-week moving average for ten weeks (but not breaking below it, important!), SLW is now over it’s 13-week and 34-week moving average.    Above $30 right now at a close today of $31.65, you might want to set a buy stop right at that low $30-ish level.  It’s worth waiting a bit for here, as the last couple of days have been explosive.  Almost always, SLW will reward the patient hand.  Again, SIL is for you if you do not want to own individual silver stocks.

On the gold side, I don’t think you could do much better than RGLD.  Right now it’s forming the right side of a mini-cup, and I really think the next time it breaches $80.00, it will be home free — flying in virgin territory.  It’s absolutely astounding what this stock has done over the last 10 years.  In 2001, it was trading at less than $2.00.  They’ve only gotten stronger in their royalty finance commitments recently, and now appear to be stepping into the big leagues.  I also like AUY, as mentioned, and of course GDXJ.

Last but not least, I like the refiners.  I love my WNR, and still clutch it, but for my money, I think PSX warrants a lot of attention too. After it settles down from its most recent breakout on the weekly chart, I think it’s a purchase at the $39.00 level. Whether it’s the year of the monkey or the Age of Aquarius, for some reason refiners are hot again, and it’s time to take advantage.

I think this string will run at least to the end of the month, especially if the dollar continues to cooperate.  At that point, however, I’m going to start at least selling calls, if not whole swaths of stocks.   This POTUS race is going to tighten, and I don’t think that will be good for market breaking into mid-September.  Until then, however, let’s play that grasshopper music.

Best to you all.

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Best.

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The other night I saw the Fly
And Jeremy and Chuck Am I.
Chess and Wine and Gappy Too
(Might sound like three, but only two)
Woodshedder bedecked in denim
Scotty with lovely wife, God bless’im

Cain Thaler came on wheelchair made
of Bamboo- wire and cut jade
Ancient even past his years
He breathed blue smoke and shed dry tears
For Detroit his home benighted so
By corrupt gov’t and cold grey snow

Fly made toasts to kith and kin
Whilst Jemmy’s stomach near augured in.
Gapp and Chuck, wolfish rakes
Assessed the women (even Jake’s)
Yet stayed their hands and played the part
Of gentlemen, with Gentle Heart

RC of course, the Silent Giant
Hove to the table, his palette pliant
Without his better half’s restraint
Drew ample beverage, drew ample plate.

One party missing, and well missed
The liberal heart, whom Nature kissed
No Cronkite and no Greenman showed
To plead ‘gainst MONstah, and for “O.”

Alas!

Progenic duty stayed the bars
(And further frolics with cigars)
Sent “the Jakes” home by one AM
Whilst Friends of Fly (and Chess and Jem)
Went forth with blessings from us both
For IBC, for friends and “Growth.”

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Someone claimed I haven’t posted in two months! Calumny!
It’s been a mere one month. It’s only seemed like two in our accelerated world. Things have slowed, or blowed, or both, and I won’t bore you with details, but I should be able to post somewhat more often, at least in August.

Did I mention I had to cut my vacation short and come home three days early? Yeah, I know, boo hoo, at least I have a job, right? What right have I to complain when this is the lot I’ve chosen? Right. None.

Meanwhile, while I’ve been resting my keyboard, the silver markets have begun to show signs of life again. If you are not in EXK and AG, you’ve still got time, but probably not a tonne of it. Likewise SLW which had a nice move today. Dollars to donuts the lesser bodies like MVG and SSRI will also begin to rise alongside the champions. Like usual, the real moves will be made in the Fall for those stocks, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt you to start accumulating now. As usual, SIL is a great “combinator” if you don’t want to agonize over the usual suspects.

Gold stocks have become almost too annoying to mess with on the individual side, so outside of RGLD, and maybe AUY, I am not going to recommend you dabble in anything but the ETF’s like GDX and GDXJ.

Before you ask, yes, I still own the rare earths (QRM and AVL, especially), despite their declines. I just add more on whims. What the hell, they are popcorn cheap and I am quite certain they will Bela Lugosi when the dollar heads down one more time this coming Election Season.

What’s got me in “near term buy” mode however, are a couple of stocks I’ve owned for a while that are showing nice promise right now. One is nat gas former superstar ECA, which looks beautiful, especially on a pullback to the $21.00 range. Another is PSX, which I “inherited” when it spun off of COP, back in April (COP being one of the Samurai Seven along with fat dividend gold stock AEM, which has also risen from the grave as of late). And along with PSX, I will take some HFC, another refiner. I like them both at $38 if you are looking for a buy range.

I will endeavor to be more faithful to you my friends. The spirit is always willing, as you know… the flesh? Well…

Slainte.

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