Not my Yanks, that’s for sure
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Drawdown days are a bitch, I don’t care how well hedged you are. Some of my positions took 7 and even 8% haircuts today, but mostly that was the small ones. The bigger ones were hedged, so the bleeding was not entirely egregious. I was almost entirely out of my AGQ with only 400 shares left, so that was not a horrible caining I took even in that double slammer today, given I formerly owned 3k shares.

Word to the wise, the $HUI index is oversold already on the deep dive it did today, so I would not dwell long in the land of shorting this gold bull.  You are far more likely to receive  profitable thrills by waving your junk at a basket filled with hungry ferrets.

Of all the single precious issues out there, I like IVN and GSS to rebound first.  Don’t ask me why, just attend to my Spider Senses.   I also like almost precious REE, if it ever comes back down to earth again.  

In the non-metals world, I still love the Trannies and their strength here, relative to the scaredy cat sell off.   I especially love UPS, and you should look to add to this core holding if it can dip just a little below to it’s 50-day EMA at $66.60 or so:

RGLD is another core hold  you should be looking to glom here.   I will be adding to it, to ANV and to SLW very shortly. 

Watch the dollah!   More tomorrah!

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Oy, that’s hot!
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Yes, Yes, BAC is rallying, but I’m not trusting this.

Rather, I think the FAZtards are about to have their sup o’ gluttony, here, as the weeklies try to reclaim the 13 and 34 week EMA’s they’ve already pierced.

I’ve found this is a fruitful place from which to grab some SKIFFLES, or in these more modern day, FAZ-mobile vouchers for a ride home.

I expect we’ll get turned at some point in the range between the $46.75 and $47.50 mark. That’s when the Citi Parti will experience the first pang of hangover, and then, le deluge.

And gold is overbought even as the dollar surges back, same with silver.   I will stay with my hedges there, and perhaps add a GDX hedge as well tomorrow.

It can’t be sunny every day.   Keep your chevrons up.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vNc5o9TU0t0&feature=related 450 300]

Jimmy Page, eat your heart out!
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You may be familiar with my call that gold and silver are overbought and should be pulling back here. Well, I still stand by that call, and as proof, today I sold approximately 25 to 40% of my EXK, BAA, AGQ, CDE, respectively .

Note I touched not any of my ANV or SLW, or IAG or RGLD, EGO or PAAS or any of my “core group.”    The reason is the Stairway to Heaven I’ve seen appearing in the charts, particularly the silver commodity’s chart.  First the weekly:

Yes, that’s our eighth week of “steady Eddy” up move we’re witnessing there.   And yet, look at how boringly stair step it seems… almost as if it is some kind of controlled move.  

It looks almost as boring — and maybe alarming — on the daily charts.   Behold:

Not a whole heckuva a lot of pullback in that stairway, eh?  That’s what’s kind of freaking me out from two angles.  First, this is not a “parabolic move” but rather a slow stair-step.  It’s highly unusual for such a volatile metal.  And before you start getting crazy about silver’s tiny market (true), the recent gold commodity charts look exactly like this as well.

It’s almost like someone gave a signal in August that it was time to swap shit dollars — ever so quietly and surreptitiously, like a cafeteria thief replacing roast turkey slices with wedges of liverwurst on all the whole grain wheat sandwich bread — for beautiful ingots of silver and gold.

This action gives me pause, even though I took some mighty profits today in the more volatile PM’s  (I also sold half my shitty BBT position, and trimmed or got rid of some outliers like JAH, KFN and a little VECO). 

This could be traders slowly covering short positions, I guess, in which case, we should ready for a strong pullback, as I’ve noted.   However, this could also be the precursor, the yeast in the bread dough, so to speak, of the parabolic move that I do expect later on this year or in the Spring. 

So we will wait and see, with bated breath, whether Christmas comes early this year… or right… on…. time!

Best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ufn_pUVzZBg&feature=related 450 300]

(The 1970’s are back in California, at least)

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It ain’t easy keeping up with my family for a long weekend mini-vacation let me tell you.   It seems we did it all this time around– the full blown resort/ winery grand loop/ top-eating halls/ Napa-Sonoma scenario, and even added in the occasional valley balloon flight and a “little” family party at a relative’s Fairfax home in the hills.   I think we also greatly depleted the stock of the district, so it’s a good thing that harvest is a little late this year.

Because let me tell you — they’re going to need more grape jooce (sic) when we finally vacate the air space.

Going into this week I am going to exercise some caution.  I still have a little bit of my ANV and SLW hedges left and I may add to them perhaps get some GDX and even GDXJ covered calls.  Both gold and silver are magnificently stretched here and I’m looking for a respite at least.    I woulodn’t be surprised if that respite went hand in hand with a similar pullback on the SPX.

To that end, I may trim my sails on some of my stock positions also, including TCK, TC and ANDE — the non-precious Jacksonians.  I will keep all of my MON as that seems to have a counter-cyclical trend to its trading recently.

Besides, it’s a long term hold play, and I’d be comfortable adding lower, so why sell some now?

I am bone weary and getting up early tomorrow to take on the San Fran Airport.   I will try to check in via Crackberry, but until then bon chance!

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REYOJDANQ0k 450 300]

(Remember when Kanye was witty?)

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We’ve finally done it…  we’ve broken into “free air” on the Miner’s Chart — the venerable $HUI Gold Bugs Index.   Come see it for yourself:

I did a lot of things today in celebration of our free air moment.   First, I covered quite a few of my hedges in ANV and SLW and GDX, some at a loss some at break even.  The ANV was particularly egregious, but we’ll try not to dwell on that.  I still have about a 20% hedge on SLW and about 30% of ANV still hedged.   You’ll note the overbought stochastics and relative strength indicators on the above chart, I’m sure.  That’s my reason for retaining a little hedge.

But let’s not kid ourselves, the dollar is busted, and headed all the way to Target #4 without even a passing “hey howaya?” to Target #3.  Cheggitout:

Sure, we may get a little bounce at $77, but look at what happened after that last bounce.   No, I think the dollar is dead as Jacob Marley on burnt toast.

So please, get out of any silly short positions you may be contemplating “holding out” for.  There’s far more easy hunting out there than going after an Alaskan grizzly with a plastic butter knife.

In addition to releasing most of my hedges today, I also doubled down on an initial IAG long call position (DEC $17.50’s) at $1.60 a piece today.  My original purchase of 80 was at 90 cents each.   I expect IAG to be over $20 before Santa arrives.   I also added a touch more EXK, which was gluttonous of me.  I now own more of that than I even do SLW, though the share price is lower.

Of course, I think EXK will be the next SLW, so there’s a method to my sleep deprived madness.  I also really like RGLD here, and it looks like it’s ready to launch once again.  

My best to you, and to yours.

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I Know…. Nosssink! 

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Regrettably, it’s come to my recent attention that my site has become infiltrated by black bag conspiracy nuts of the Alex Jones variety.  I would ask without undue rancor that knot-heads believing in the alleged 911 “Inside Job,”  the Barack Obama Birth Certificate Kerfuffle or the Bilderbergian/Illuminati Central Axis Hypothesis (whatever that means) to kindly pole-stave off to a nearby conspiracy swamp of their choosing.

You see, all political movements — left and right — have their nutty fringe, and I’d rather not indulge those fringes right now given the seriousness of our national economic and social plight.

 So please, continue thinking that you’ve got that Jewish Lobby Puppet Master thing all figured out, and do keep proferring your legal brief claiming Barack Obama is just George Bush in more fashionably cut business attire.   That’s all fine for the Cheetohs and Miller Lite– Lone Rifleman meetings you’ve been conducting in Mom’s basement apartment, but this site is not for such erudition.

And don’t get me wrong,  it’s not just about your poor spelling and ham-handed grasp of the Queen’s grammar that’s putting me off.  Generally, that’s an amusing byproduct, in truth.

No, the ban is really about getting serious.   We’ve got a little over a month to go to make sure the bums on both sides of the aisle get the message that we are too well informed an electorate to allow another ten year Great Depression to come about under our watch.    It’s time to make sure that we have representatives educated in economics and U.S. Civics as a baseline. 

 That means no more “government-first”  initiatives, and the only time the word “investment” should come out of a poltician’s mouth is when he or she is referring to the myriad free choices for risk capital available to the private sector.   If these rubes can’t understand “First, do no harm,” then they must at least understand “Stand down, and let the people govern themselves.”

You see, it’s an ironic verity that the PPP’s mentioned in today’s title are actually  giving the “government-firsters” ample cover by repeating their paraonoic’s claims.   In fact, it seems PPP’s can’t realize that the people who would imprison them are not wearing the jackboots of their dark dreams, but instead carrying the clip-boards and white coats of the empathetic and concerned bureaucrat. 

It’s this attitude of creeping  incrementalism that must end.   Only by remaining wholly rational in its face can we hope to return to the principles — by no means perfect, but always powerful and disposed towards freedom — that brought this country to its acme.

Instead of cursing the darkness,  light a blowtorch, and think about which candidates are seeking to keep your markets and by proxy, your civilization, free.  Then go and give them every hand you can spare.

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Looks like the dollar may have temporarily bottomed late Friday afternoon, as it’s rebounded about a quarter over the low $78 it posted then.  Tonight (midnight Monday morning) has dollar trading at $78.24 and gold and silver about flat.  I continue to hope for a bit of a pullback here, but I’m not counting any chickens and would advise caution in the coming days.   October is seasonally weak for gold, so you might be on the lookout for a nice bit of weakness with which you might ride Santa’s sleigh into the Yule holidays.

Still hedged on SLW and ANV, everything else is foot loose and fancy free.    My best to you all.

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