And Just the Right Colour (sic), Too!

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It certainly feels good to stretch one’s wings once again, especially after a period of soreness and chafing, when the gold and silver markets pulled back in feeble, milquetoast fashion, rendering my hedges dull and feckless, and largely a waste of my time.   Luckily, I exited the remainder of my precious metal hedges today, and for the most part in the plus column (while my short ETF hedges were not), and the whole unpleasantness was avoided save for a more optimum re-entry price on a few select names.

As I previously stated, the dollar and the Amex Gold Bug Index ($HUI) were my guide in re-entering this morning, and the $HUI preceded the dollar in breaking that “roof” at $535 that has been plaguing us for the best part of a week.  I think today’s strong candle — on volume not evident in this chart, but in the individual names — gives we longer term players the assurance we need to be back in for the final ramp into Spring:

Note that upon the strong break this morning, I piled into AGQ with the gusto of a small ravenous narwhale amongst the migratory squid, immediately purchasing my first allocation (about one half of my expected total) without a limit order.  When things are breaking out like this, you always want to make sure you at least wet your beak so that you are not left behind in a tidal surge.   I also put in limit orders at this morning’s gap — and they never came close to being filled all day.   Tomorrow I shall try again for my fills there.

As planned, apres this break,  I also added to my considerable hordes in EXK, SLW, SIL and NGD.   As early as tomorrow I expect something of a pullback, but I will be adding at each opportunity.   Next in line is PAAS, AG, MVG and perhaps even CDE and HL.   I shall be as a fat suckling pig in a candy shoppe.   And no, I will not forget Prometheus’s gold — EGO, ANV and IAG will be added to as well, perhaps with IVN and AAU.

Scratch that, I just looked at the charts.  I will definitely be adding some AAU tomorrow.

Cheerio! Wot?  Your friend, Happy Jake.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XfuBREMXxts&feature=related 450 300]

Boomer’s First Signed Act! (Check out the Instrumentalism!)

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As you well know, I am a believer– in many senses of the word (and the Word, and the weurd ).   But like Mickey Dolenz aimlessly tapping against the rim of a snare drum in an attempt to appear Ringo-weurthy, I am stuck here twiddling my Thaler collection, waiting for the second shoe to drop.

You remember my “I want to Believe” chart from four days back?  Well, it’s still stubbornly refusing to resolve itself, neither breaking down nor breaking out.   It’s enough to make one test the family flame-thrower out on the neighbor’s bird-stalking cat…

My patience is wearing to a thin thread, but I know I won’t have to wait much longer.  The dollar looks to be in its last throes, and will either spit the bit tonight, or take off in one last spasm of orgasmic excess followed by a quick-wilt into mid-February.   Your cue will be the $77.80 line on the DX-Y.  I believe that is our point of no return. 

Should the dollar fail there, I will be loading kegs of AGQ-brand sweet mead onto the back of my ale truck, along with SIL, SLW, and of course, EXK.    I will also have gold brands for you to swill, likely headed by IAG, ANV and EGO.   I never sold much RGLD, but I will likely be adding to that role as well.

For those of you who want something right now ,and cannot otherwise hold your water, I think the Borg cannot resist assimilating this latent bull, and so BWA should be bought here with alacrity.   The same goes for the providers of mining machinery to the mines above, JOYG and TEX.

JOYG to you all.

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The dollar finally bounced today, and in a big way.  As mentioned in my last post, the longer term dollar trend line held at just below $77.00 on the $DX-Y Index.  Gold and silver also bounced today after being somewhat bludgeoned the day prior.  Certainly this drama prattles on in more curious and curiouser fashion.

Like my friends Gary and Le Monsieur, I want to believe the precious metal bull is done consolidating and is ready to take off.  However, today’s considerable bounce in the dollar and certain things I’m seeing in the $HUI Goldbugs chart continue to give me pause.

Luckily, I think the question will resolve itself soon, as the $HUI is approaching serious resistance on the daily charts.  This resistance, if broken, will give me all the assurance I need to jump back in the market long and strong:

Now, I’m not one for advocating dandruff-shampoo formations, but the combination of approaching resistance, and the 50-day EMA give me enough pause to wait one or two more days to see how this all shakes out.  Again, if this is the C-wave finale, we’ll have plenty of room to banque large coin before it’s run its course.   The good news is the 200-day remains a rock solid buy-point, as it has throughout most of this long bull run for the miners.

On a happier note, today one of loyal reader Teahouse’s favourite stocks — FRG — got swallowed up by a hungry major, again illustrating why we like to buy and hold (even in diminished capacity) the junior miners in this bull instead of the larger miners. 

 In an increasingly active M&A market, you want to be holding buyout upside, not acquisition upside for the simple reason that,with the days of Cisco and Fifth Third Bank’s long acquiring sprees behind us, there’s just not much upside to owning an acquiror.  And in owning the juniors, you know there’s always a chance of even a crappy company waking up to a 25-50% price pop.   Play the odds that lie in your favor, I say.

In honor of Teahouse’s alert (I owned FRG but had never blogged about it until Employee 8 brought it up here), I will also feature another of his favourites tonight, MVG — a nice little silver miner.  He gave me some crap for selling the $12.50 February calls a couple of weeks back when I was hedging the portfolio, but that trade has worked out, and I still own all the MVG I had purchased down in the $6-$7 range as a result (I’ve since covered the calls at short pennies).

I thing MVG is not far from a bottom on this pullback, if it has not bottomed already. Moreover, it’s a relatively low risk play from this point on:

Congrats to Teahouse and all my other fellow FRG holders, and let’s get out and get the next one.  They’re coming for sure.

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(Due to a very late night at the office, the only correspondance tonight will be Haiku)

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Dollar bends to lows

Chuck and Fly Hoist Silver Cans

Toasting the Bernank

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Bernank spreads the gelt

Like bread upon the water

No Cat calls, Kettle.

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True Gelt responds not

To Aegypt’s mad ovation

For hunger and pain.

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We’ll wait this week out

To see which way the wind blows

Toward, or away.

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No changes, today, save an addition to my QID horde and a sale of one quarter of my remaining ANV, on strength.  I may consider more DXD tomorrow, depending on what the dollar does.  I may say “no mas,” too.

Best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gb_qHP7VaZE&feature=related 450 300] Why Democracy Always Fails in the Middle-East
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The Cradle of Civilisation (sic) has been giving us quite a bit of trouble recently, wot? First we had 20 years of taming Mesopatamia, and now, in the stomping grounds of old Ramses himself, the crowds are making noises like they are going to throw off the yoke of old Catcher’s Mitt Face and his various progeny, including son Gamal  (although I give Gamal Mubarak some kudos for marrying what has to be the best looking woman in Egypt, if not the whole damn Middle East); much like the Mesopatamians (with not inconsiderable help) gave the gallows treatment to Sadistic Saddam in Iraq.

Well, don’t bet on it, Tutankhaman. 

Call me cynical, but I think when you are talking about corrupt, massively bureaucratic  7,000 year old civilizations, shit doesn’t just “Viva la Revolucion” into a new happy-dappy government — even the meta-Islamicist kind– without the intervention of many, many well armed troops, preferably of the non-Aegyptian variety.

That’s right folks, I said it.   If anyone is going to take this ancient and corrupt shit-show on the Nile, it’s going to have to be heavily military-backed.   And guess what?  Last I looked, the defense ministry of Aegypt was taking down $2.5 billion pe annum in prime U.S. gelt as payment for the Sinai Accords some 33 years ago.  Payments that are — by contract — slated to be paid IN PERPETUITY!   You think that’s a payday anyone in their right mind — no matter how “Islamicist”– is willing to forego? 

So with the Tea Party Congress coming into power, and eyeballing crazy-assed guarantees like that, what better way to illustrate to the world the value of that BRIBE than by showing just how fragile that geography really is?  And oh, by the way?  Our new Congress has also been grumbling  (cough, cough- Rand Paul! — cough!) a bit about our subsidies to the State of Israel — another three billion per, and, coincidentally also contractually guaranteed in those same Camp David Accords.

Cynical?  Yes.  The way the Company has been operating the Middle East since it morphed from the OSS in the late 40’s?  Um, also affirmitive.

So we’ll see what we shall see, but let’s not have any talk about cutting Aegypt or Israel’s money lines just yet, shall we?   We wouldn’t want that awful Muslim Brotherhood to actually have to take on the trappings of rule, and really deligitimize Radical Islam once and for all, would we?

What would we have to talk about around the Danish bar, right?

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All the rest of you pikers can attend Saint Francis University  about how Aegypt “caused” Friday’s much predicted cataclysm.  For the last time, Aegypt was merely a convenient trigger–  an trader’s excuse for selling of a broadly overbought market.  The Ben Bernank has powers of levitation which are considerable when mixed with green ink and grey paper.   They are not, however, immortal powers.  Truth be told, they are more mortal than man.

So wise up.  We’re in for a nice sell off here.  If we get some levity tomorrow morning, don’t be stupid.  Take that as you cue to lighten your load.   And no, I’m not getting back into gold or silver miners either, although I am allowing my buy-stops to hit, like I did with SLW the other day at $29.05.   My EXK buy stop was not hit, mind you, though I expect it will be still.

As I said on the previous page, I may be wrong, and I may be waiting too long to pile back in.  But having the scars of many an early move on my back, I will hesitate here.  I can afford it, after all, having outpaced the majority of the market by doing just this — riding the precious bull for all it’s worth, while avoiding major pitfalls as well as possible.

Best to you all.  Wait for the signals.

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You See Kid, It’s All About the Proper ‘Stache
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Well, the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets lost… and many a friend, relative and associate is in mourning tonight.  I can almost feel their pain.  It’s tough to get so close to the Superbowl and then lose in a disjointed effort like that.  But the Jets should take heart, as they’ve a team to build on.   As well, the Steelers have indubitably the best defense in the league, and perhaps the best coach.  

 And let’s face it,  for the Jets to win a third playoff game on the road would be considered by some to be a near miracle.

I say “near,” because of course my own beloved Giants have performed that 3-Road Game Playoff Win feat, and topped even that by beating “the Unbeatable” New England Patriots.  You remember the Giselle Bundchen-related Patriots?  The team who had gone unbeaten in every game in the 2007 season…

Except the one that counted, I mean.  Heh.

No matter, the industrious Steelers pulled off the same carny trick the year after, albeit against a far inferior opponent.  Nevertheless, Mike Tomlin is great, Ben Roethlisberger is a loathesome pig, “Go Packers!”  and let’s move on…

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You want to know what I think the dollar is doing here?  I think it’s getting ready to rumble.  It’s been drip-sell, drip-sell, drip-sell for weeks now, and yet gold and silver have been pedaling in air, rather than soaring.   That means gold and silver, in their heavy, shiny brains know something.   This is what I think they know:

We might get a scrape below $78.00, but I think that’ll be the dog and the frog.  You’ll know the dollar is done diving because the market will crack like a ten week old egg left over from a third grade science project.  It’ll be smelly.  Are you prepared?

Everyone is asking me when I’m going to buy you-name-it– SLW, EXK, GDX, ANV, EGO etc., etc. 

Listen to me when I tell you that when its time to buy these things again, you will NOT want to do so.  Hear me?  Stop being so damn anxious and go have a clove cigarette and a warm paraffin foot bath or something.

In the meantime, here’s where I see EXK, you greedy little pigs, you:

Now remember that’s a weekly chart up there, so things will move slower than we’re used to seeing on the daily, and that distance to the buy is a site farther than it looks.  It might be three or four weeks from now.  So chill.

And here’s a bonus for you dynamite-strapped rocketeers out there.   If you try this, play it small because it’s wilder than boar hog afflicted with a case of cannibal crabs.  You see how much it was up on Friday?  Well don’t believe it.  This suckers going down just like it did last time.  Here’s my take:

That’s all for now.  Play tight and play defense this week.

Good luck to the Green Bay Packers, a real “good guy” team.  I might even root for Pittsburgh, but then, I have a daughter, soooo … no.

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