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I have my 5-year old to thank for giving me the Derby winner on Saturday. He liked the name “Animal Kingdom,” so we played him across the board. I must say, however, that I attribute my choosing the second place winner, Nehro, in the exacta box parley (paid $330) to my chance conversation with Nehro’s trainer, Steve Asmussen, in the Dallas airport after last year’s Derby, which ended with my decisive judgement that he was “a good guy.”
So you can see, there’s a lot of science that goes into these Derby picks. It’s quite amazing. But truthfully, Animal Kingdom is a noble beast, second only perhaps to officially endorsed iBC show horse Banned, who won decisively the day prior. Read more about Animal Kingdom here, and cheer him on for the Preakness, won’t you?
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For those of you who hoovered silver with abandon last week, God bless, am I with you. We will know relatively quickly whether or not we’ve made a wise move “buying the blood.” My aim is to dump a lot of the AGQ I purchased last week on a break back above $40/oz. or perhaps earlier if the situation warrants. I think there’s significant chance of a retest of last week’s lows, however, before that happens. In fact, I would welcome a successful retest as a sign of a more healthy bottoming from this recent artificially created sell-off.
But let’s be limpidly lucid about what happened last week. There were a lot of cowboys knocked off their horses. Whether that was a move by the big boys to clear the decks for further ascent — or at least for proper physical delivery — will be apparent by the end of this month, and perhaps even by options expiration day.
In the meantime, I stand with some dry powder left, but a much smaller amount than at the beginning of last week — less than 10% of my total portfolio. It’s unlikely I’ll be purchasing anything new unless I see something just ridiculously mispriced in relation to the rest of the market.
Let’s see what Monday — and the London bankers — brings us. Carry on.
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