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33 Is this a dagger which I see before me,
34 The handle toward my hand? Come, let me clutch thee.
35 I have thee not, and yet I see thee still.
36 Art thou not, fatal vision, sensible
37 To feeling as to sight? or art thou but
38 A dagger of the mind, a false creation,
39 Proceeding from the heat-oppressed brain?
40 I see thee yet, in form as palpable
41 As this which now I draw.
42 Thou marshall’st me the way that I was going;
43 And such an instrument I was to use.
44 Mine eyes are made the fools o’ the other senses,
45 Or else worth all the rest; I see thee still,
46 And on thy blade and dudgeon gouts of blood,
47 Which was not so before.
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Sure, we’re all getting a little bit MacBeth-paranoid here. In fact, many are in full panic and I can understand your feeling. It was no fun trying to concentrate on track business today (literally) whilst glancing at the ever plunging price of silver, and then gold.
That said, we are in extremely oversold territory here, which should allow those of us who are too nervous to hang on (aye, if the inevitable D-wave is here, we should all be nervous) to exit into the sharp rebound.
I am still of the mind we are in a severe, if blood-freezing correction, brought on by a number of factors which can only be ascribed to government-regulatory cronyism. Sorry, I calls ’em as I see ’em.
Take a look at our friend $Silver again after today’s close:
The oversold condition is unmistakeable. Same goes for AGQ another Bollinger Band crash victim that can make one money right off.
I haven’t seen a stock this oversold since the days we played in IOC, and remember what fun that was? V-King remembers. Well, cheer up, it can be fun again, and we can grab some gains here, even amongst the carnage.
Be well, and be attentive, me swabbies — SLW and EXK look sexy slimmed down like this. Small bites along the way is how I’ve been re-accumulating monster AGQ. You may wish to look to that path for any of the stocks you are currently stocking.
I’m tired beyond all belief and Derby is two days away. Not sure I’ll make it. More tomorrow.
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Ironically, I am in the middle of teaching Macbeth right now–and did that scene yesterday in class–how apropos!
I feel like King Duncan here, stabbed by the Thane of SIL…and JPM is Lady Macbeth…
I am afraid to check my account balance. These last few days have unfolded like a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing…
Nice! English profs are following me…
Keep an eye out for Banquo’s Ghost… he’ll be making an appearance soon.
++++++++++++++++
Careful there Jake…English profs love to follow tragedy and comedy…
And comparative literature/critical theory profs, too.
Oy! Foucaltian relativists… like I didn’t see that coming…
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I’m not a Foucaultian. One spells that “Foucauldian.” And not one of those either. A little behind the times, Jake. Actually, I’m quite an absolutist, if we’re to use your vocabulary. Moreover, I don’t think Foucault was a “relativist.” But that’s another conversation.
Jake; When I look at these charts I see such a rapid (rabid) descent that levitating upward from here would require a similar and equally radical event to occur. Such as Carlos Slim and Soros both deciding to buy a bazillion pounds of gold and silver whilst margin clerks reset their PMS cycles back to normal… What do you think will be the catalyst to reverse the course of PM’s entering into the shoals of rock?
Dollar break, or a delivery dilemma in the silver pits, maybe? I am looking only for a bounce out of this in the near term, and then a more rounded return to old/new highs.
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Theories: 1) Folks see lower per oz prices and will be more apt to buy physical silver this time around instead of ETF’s or miners. (Eagles still fetching $45 on ebay) thereby driving up the cost of silver.
2) The market explodes and takes miners with it but leaves silver to languish.
3) The market and commodities continue to get hammered, don’t know if that is a real D wave or not but it’s time to get out….
and so….
how is this diff than 1980? same ‘government-regulatory cronyism’ resulted in the demise of silver prices and the hunt gamblas. please splain why ‘this time is different.’
It is different because the US dollar is dying this time. It’s already a bleeding husk being eaten alive by a ravenous debt beast. Why not other currencies then; you may ask? Because though they are generally faring better than the US dollar, they too are being munched on my the debt beast. Also, there is a lot less phyiscal silver available than there was in the early 80’s. Also, there are multiple participants trying a short squeeze on JPMorgan. Not just old Bunker and Nelson. There are also silver etf’s like PSLV that didn’t exist back then. The entire populations of China and Russia can now buy it (which they couldn’t back then), there are more industrial uses for it now than there were back then, and the mines are generally lower grade and less silver specific than they were back then.
Check your economic history… for how long had we had debilitating inflation by late 1980?
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A good while. But nflation is here today too, perhaps slightly less than the late 70’s. http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
What are you getting at?
Do you mean to imply that the common man hasn’t explicitly felt the pain of inflation enough to force him out of USD into PM yet?
Bye Bye QE, Bye Bye Commodity Sector.
The Perfect Storm:
1) Soros and other elephants announce the closing of their PM contracts for lack of deflation or inflation
2) Non stop increases in margin requirements on the futes for silver and today crude
3) Trichet won’t raise rates until after June causes an unwinding of existing Euro/$ trades
We’re gonna need a bigger boat …. Indeud, lunkers for the taking!
What’s different?
Nothing’s changed … the Fed is still intent on debasing the $ but at a slower pace. The Bernanke will continue to pump money into the system long after QE2 expires. Interest rates must remain low as housing is turning down again and peeps can’t afford increases in variable rate credit on top of high gasoline prices. Wages remain stagnant and unemployment high. He continues to fight deflation until the core PCE index hits 2 and we are currently only at .9 so inflation is not yet a concern. With the help of a few of his friends he has temporarily wrung out key commodity inflation and strengthened the $ to enable himself to continue down the same path though slower and longer ….
Thanks for staying up late and taking the time to post this!
No problem … how’s it going there on the left bank?
You holding, buying or planning a course of action?
Haha … I just realized you were responding to Jake’s Blog once I noticed him posting time … LOL
Make no mistake, your input is highly valued here, Teahouse, and we thank you for it.
Save for when you are talking about the Sawx or the Pats, that is… heh!
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Yous too save for politics … haha
yours
One of my favourite things about ibc has been reading articulate arguments between you two.
Don’t get us started …
COMMODS JUST DESTROYED AS YOU ALL SLEEP, YOU CANNOT HIDE IN YOUR SLEEP, pardon the caps, i will not retype, for i am cincodemayoed
Stick to the tequila kid.
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Well Im thankful that it is a great buying opportunity. Every once in a while we get a chance to re-enter yahoo the big boys leaked out that they sold so they can get a lower price to buy back in…i sold my shares and still hold physical. Will look for reentry at slow small chunks.Thanks Jake for your work on the charts.
Sorry Jake. You have been wrong on buying silver all the way down to where we are this morning. I suppose averaging in is fine but I have lost money left and right on silver plays with stop losses. You will be right if you say it long enough but for me I am standing aside. I am willing to lose some upside to protect the downside. This market is skittish at best and with margin requirements on silver I am not so confident that the downside is over. Best with the plays and I hope you are right.
Jake, in rereading my note, maybe I was too tough. Please don’t read my note wrong. i have a friend who thought I was rubbing it in and that was not my intent and apologies if taken that way. I just believe that caution is really necessary right now as people as being burned in these trades.
The miners are so volatile by nature, I never use stop losses, except trailing stop losses to protect my profits when I am up a substantial amount.
No worries, Alaw… we all have our risk tolerances. I’ve made so much money in this sector that I have quite a bit of cushion, and can let scenarios run. I recognize that is not true for all.
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Thanks for taking the time to post, Jake.
I thought about stuff all night last night, and I think adding is the right move. Just takes balls of steal to do.
We hoped for volatility to be able to buy back in at cheaper prices. That is why I took profits in the first place, for just this type of correction. Just didn’t expect it to be so freaking roller coaster crazy fast and steep.
Nothing has changed, fundamentally speaking, so I’m not panicking just because it is getting a little nuts.
In fact I think I am going to add to my Great Panther position, and maybe AAU. I’m fully back in EXK, AG, GRS, KGC. Still have MDW, too.
I am not adding to any pinksheets, though. In fact if I get out of this alive, I am never buying pinksheets again. LOL
Ended up selling out of KGC completely at about break even, just to get rid of it.
Will add last traunche of EXK at open – time to pause and see how this plays out.
Jake,
Thanks as always for keeping us up to speed. I’ve done well with the miners for a couple of years now based on your rock-solid counsel. However, I’ve not bought any physical during that time. This is mostly because I do not know how, and the people with the loudest advertising strike me as hucksters. Anyone have recommendations or at least a reliable web page as a source for how to go about it?
Thanks,
Mad Willie
I always look around for a local numismatic shop that you can trust. Then you can physically go there to buy and sell. Haven’t bought physical in a while, though, so not sure about supply.
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Jakes right … I found a coin dealer in Falmouth thats been there forever with good rep … called on phone for his POS that day … set it by spot every 15 mins. He quoted me 47+ at the time of our conversation (net) when spot was 47.50ish so his commish was what 1%?
Best part is that I didn’t get down there till 5 mins before closing and he remembered my call. Even though spot dropped from 47 to 45 (I think) he honored the price he quoted me over the phone. Asked to copy my drivers licensed in case the cops showed up looking for stolen silver but no other paperwork and cut me a check on TD North … right to the bank, LOL
Whole transaction in 5 mins!
You can bet after the next correction ($25?) I’ll be back there loading the truck if he can accommodate me.
My friends have used coloradogold.com for years.
and I’ve jumped in on some of their orders for Maples
Thanks guys.
@duck…bitchin’ av, btw.
Sure, if you say Silver is going up everyday then eventually you will be right. Wasnt the other day you were saying to be patient and go long silver then it plunged down 10%? I the SLV rallying 4-5% today, but after plunging 15 points of course this thing has to bounce at some point.
Lets see who is right, shall we? Right now I believe Silver is a good short. Price right now is 35.47 at 10:28am. Lets see who gets it right?
I understand you want to follow Savage’s wave theorum and also realize you dont want to come out to say “I was wrong”. I hope I dont sound unfriendly or trollish, but just giving you the real scoop.
stfu jonti
I’m sure everyone here is grateful for your “real scoop” Jonti.
Looking forward to your frequent blogs in the Peanut Gallery of this site. You can be the “short metals” guy and really make a name for yourself!
😉
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Its all about making good calls. I gave a specific call up top to short at 35.47. Lets see if I am right. I will keep you updated on my calls.
Dude, why are you even posting here if you don’t agree with what Jake says, then don’t read his blog. You’re entitled to your own trading style, and you might be right–but Jake has a bit more of a track record than you do here, which is why he has his own blog. Post in the peanut gallery and let’s see your track record of trades, and then maybe someone will believe you.
For now you are just another dickless troll full of sound and fury, signifying nothing…
you were off ten cents. tweak the formula this weekend.
I like having Jonti here. He’s even funnier than DevilDog.
yup … don’t scare him off
Perhaps jOshIngU reborn?
We’ll have to wait for some of Jonti’s charts to make that call.
Amazing to think that $1 from 1960 = $1 from 2011, but 4 quarters from 1960 = about $25.
Three of four new buys up more than 10% today (EXK, AG & FVITF) with MVG lagging the pack (3.6%) …. Success indeud!
AG is a monster. Can’t believe how low it got….
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Teahouse, I went to pull up your FVITF to see what it was on google finance, and this thead is linked there. It’s kind of weird that even the comments will link in with the ticker symbols.
So you like Fortuna, hey? Even though they are still a pink slip? Another AG?
Yeah I like but caught my eye since it tracked EXK almost perfectly until Fly got involved with EXK, haha
LOL
I’m going to put it on the watchlist, because I owned AG when it was a pinksheet and when it listed on the US exchange it went berserk!
yeah, and I almost pulled the trigger yesterday on more but with all the add’l margin talk for today and Monday thought this am would catch a bottom but cant complain with 17.20 & 18.70
Jonti, what is your time frame? Jake does not trade tick by tick. He catches big moves in the trend. If you can call the exact bottom, good for you. Would love to see it real time. So you shorted at 35.47 today, let us know when you cover.
Jake, thanks for the steady hand during this downturn. The last couple of months have been my first foray into the metal shop. I put my faith in your analysis and kept buying even on the way down. It felt awful. I regret not taking that last bit of AG in the $16s but overall I have a lot to be happy about. Today I am in happy recovery mode. Perhaps it is but a bounce but I will take it after 4 days of dissipating carnage. I learned a lot about panic, fear and even courage.
Off to the Oaks! A day for the fillies.
I will check in from time to time. Don’t be surprised if we retest the lows, here.
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easy on the exactas … I’m getting jealous here
Get the misses a mint julep and yourself a woodford on me … haha
This is really interesting about Sandstorm Gold (formerly Sandstorm Resources) –
It is a mineral stream company based on Silver Wheaton’s model and the CEO was the CFO of Silver Wheaton, Nolan Watson…and the guy is just now 30 years old!
I took this excerpt from an interview (not with the company but with another investor) –
“Sure. I own shares in a company called Sandstorm Resources (TSX.V:SSL), which is a gold version of Silver Wheaton Corp. (NYSE:SLW, TSX:SLW). It is a metal stream company that focuses on acquiring gold streams from small to-mid-size development companies. They look for junior miners with exceptional projects but limited access to capital. They’ll buy the gold stream, or a percentage of the gold stream, and give the junior mining company an up-front payment and then pay a fixed cost per ounce of gold. In return for this financing, Sandstorm gets gold production at a very low cost and without many of the issues associated with building and running their own mines.
I like to find companies that have small share structures in which the management owns a lot of the stock and where there’s a compelling valuation. Sandstorm is a great example of that model and it is way off the radar of most investors. It also trades at a significant discount to its royalty company peers. Its CEO was the CFO of Silver Wheaton when Silver Wheaton was born, and I think he was the youngest CFO of a New York Stock Exchange company at the time. He is extremely driven and his interests are totally aligned with shareholders, so much so that to date I don’t believe he has paid himself any salary. He believes his big win will come from his equity position.
TGR: Where are most of the gold streams they’re acquiring? Are they focusing in on North and South America? Are they more international than that?
CP: Their first two deals were done in Mexico and Brazil.
TGR: Any other precious metals companies that you can share with us?”
The guy was not even taking a salary at the time this interview was done (don’t know if he is now).
It’s ticker symbol is CVE:SSL can’t remember what the pinksheet is.
.
I just went to the company website and watched a video interview with Nolan Watson. The credentials the guy has, along with the credentials of the other management team, is incredible. What he has to say about gold in the future is worth listening to, too.
I’m just posting this in case anyone is bored or interested –
http://www.sandstormgold.com/s/Home.asp
Been on my watchlist and checked on it the other day … rather get the known juniors under these circumstances … trades on pinks under SNDXF, wait for it to pull back to 83 cents.
okay, thanks!
Thanks chanci. That’s quite the target.
Did some AG, SLW, DXY, EXK charts yesterday if anyone’s interested.
They’re available at http://www.buzzworthyus.com
Jake was right about the bollinger crash. This thing needed to bounce and it did!
On the shorter term, silver and silver stocks RSI & MACD started curling up on the minutes, hourlies charts, and 4hourly charts. The RSI just started to curl up on the daily for /SI today. Now, if only the powers that be can push up /SI enough so MACD starts curling… 🙂
@ Jonti, everyone has an opinion but most here are silver bulls. I think it’s ok to comment on a countertrend or if you think there’s a trend change. You’re entitled to your opinion. Most people here think you are wrong though, if you haven’t noticed. Best of luck on the silver short., I disagree but it may work short term, IMO it’s all about $DXY for now…
I’m thinking we need to get past that last margin bump Tuesday morning and if everything stays stable we will see a good steady but reserved run into June to either $52-54 or $63-65 … just thinking out loud.
been playing with fibonacci extensions. IF the correction is done here, 53 sounds just about right for that theory for the move into June.
Yeah, I think if $39 had held we’d have had a better chance at $64 but the extreme panic will probably retard the comeback now to that $53 unfortunately.
I think the move in silver is just about done. $52 is extremely unlikely.
watch and learn
Soros is reloading as we speak …
I’d love to hear your analysis. Seriously. I have never seen a parabola break, crash by 33%, then rebound to new highs. Do you have a historical instance in which that’s happened?
We are at the tail end of the move in the dollar here. There is far more risk than reward.
A reasonable voice in the wilderness. Silver has blown it’s wad and to try to re-live the glory of two weeks ago isn’t in the cards. Folks, it’s time to move on, find something that has a good P/E, low beta, good margins, and then buy the dip and hold it. Keep some powder dry for the obnoxious crashes coming up, whether real or manufactured, then step in for more. This works every time.
Strength on to JIG!!! I’ve stepped back into the SLV with today’s inverted hammer. To $ 40 for certain. Picking up physical today. Cheers.
So, just came back from the future.
Next week we test the low of GOLD again around $ 1465.
Think Libya invasion was about oil? Think again. It was about GOLD!!!
An interesting 3 minute watch.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TB6MJnzhMYY&feature=player_embedded#at=50
interesting
JG-
After “Banned” winning today I think the stars are aligned. I just read that “Dialed In” was sired by “Mineshaft.” Holy Jacksonians. Put the house on it.
I really really hate to bet the favourite (sic) on Derby Day unless it’s a UPS horse like Big Brown, but I may have to think about Dialed In, which is a Nick Zito horse, and he is one of my favorite trainers.
Just a great guy.
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Mr Jake, Just watched a documentary and I heard a astonishing fact. It stated that all the gold mined from the earth in all of human history would only be enough to fill 3 olympic size swimming pools. This was amazing to me and I just thought it might be to others who did not know this. Thank you for your PM trading insights.
hmm i thought it was only one swimming pool, but either way taint much.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPX5mRSQ3pw
Is this video proof?
Final Derby picks: Soldat
Animal Kingdom
ArchArchArch
Box em
Thank you
__ r
You were so close on that Animal Kingdom pick! what the hell happened to ArchArchArch?
No worries. Had Animal Kingdom across the board thanks to my son and had the exacta box with Nehro because of a prior friendship with his trainer.
Big Wins. I think Arch got hurt but not bad enough for euthanasia, thank goodness.
One of my biggest Derby days, wins wise. Looking to stretch that karma to Monday.
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About to sing my old Kentucky Home. So freakingAwesome.
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If Soldat wins, I’ll put Rag to death.
RUN SOLDAT, RUN DAMN YOU.
Drat!
I watched it too and it looked like dialed in got a busy signal. Congrats on the win. Now let’s hope your karma works on the pm’s.
Saw this article today–interesting company–I’m sure there are thousands like it, but always interested when there is significant insider trading. Only trades in CA, though…if you get a chance to look at this Jake, let me know what you think…
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/features/who-is-buying-and-selling/insiders-buy-at-wildcat-silver/article2011737/
HKMEX is the new “Asian Comex” that fires up officially on May 18, with trades denominated in USD. Any comments out there on what effects this might have on PM?
Follow up column by Danny to be entitled, “Is this a Jäger I see before me?”
I thought you were going to exit when you saw a climax top, Is that not a climax top?